As Trump calls for ceasefire talks, Ukraine sees Kursk as a potential leverage point

Ukraine has initiated fresh offensives in Russia‘s southern Kursk region as US President Donald Trump advocates for ceasefire negotiations.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitoring organization, Ukrainian forces conducted a new wave of attacks in the Kursk area on Thursday, advancing as much as five kilometers (three miles) behind Russian lines to the southeast of Sudzha.

It remains uncertain whether these assaults are intended to capture additional territory or to bolster Ukraine’s defensive positions. ISW analyst Angelica Evans noted that such significant advances are noteworthy.

“The ability of the Ukrainians to breach Russian defenses and move forward by five kilometers is something we haven’t observed the Russians achieving anywhere along the front line,” she stated in an interview with CNN.

Kyiv’s offensive into Russian territory has taken even its allies by surprise, and the fighting in Kursk continues despite challenging conditions elsewhere along the front.

On Friday, Russia announced that it had captured Toretsk, an industrial town in eastern Ukraine that has been a focal point of conflict for the past six months. Ukraine has not yet responded to this claim, but if verified, the loss of Toretsk would represent another strategic gain for Moscow, bringing Russian forces closer to key Ukrainian defensive positions.

Simultaneously, Russian troops have been gradually advancing towards Pokrovsk, a logistical center in eastern Ukraine that has been a target since the summer, as well as Kupiansk in the north.

Some individuals in Ukraine, including troops engaged in the fighting in Kursk and other areas, are questioning the decision to allocate valuable resources for operations in Russia while facing challenges in defending their own territory.

The rationale may stem from the anticipation that Trump could soon exert pressure on Ukraine to engage in discussions with Russia.

There is no intrinsic value in the land currently held by Ukrainians in Kursk, as it consists of fields and settlements that do not pose a threat to Kursk city or Moscow, according to Evans.

However, in the context of peace negotiations, retaining Russian territory could serve as a significant leverage point for Ukraine when considering the reclamation of its own land or other concessions from Russia in future discussions, she noted.

Ukrainian military and political officials have consistently stated that the operation in Kursk aims to thwart a new Russian offensive in northern Ukraine and compel Moscow to reallocate some of its forces from other regions.

President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on Friday that North Korean troops have re-engaged in combat in the Kursk area, following earlier indications that these units had been withdrawn due to heavy losses. He mentioned that numerous North Korean and Russian soldiers were “eliminated” during confrontations with Ukrainian forces.

This operation marks Ukraine’s most significant strategic achievement since the liberation of Kherson in November 2022, providing a substantial boost to national morale.

As discussions about negotiations to conclude the conflict continue, Zelensky has emphasized that Kyiv views Kursk as a potential asset in future bargaining scenarios.

On Wednesday, he referred to the incursion as “a very important operation.”

“You will understand later, when we achieve a diplomatic resolution to conclude the war, what conditions the Russians will encounter concerning the Kursk direction,” he stated during his nightly address to the nation.

Trump has expressed a strong desire for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to commence “as soon as possible.” He mentioned that his administration is in direct communication with both parties.

“We have made significant progress regarding Russia and Ukraine,” Trump remarked. “We will see what unfolds. We are determined to put an end to that absurd war,” he added on Monday.

A notable strategic advantage for Ukraine

It has been six months since Kyiv initiated its unexpected incursion into the Kursk region. Although Russia has managed to regain more than half of the territory initially seized by Kyiv, this has come at a substantial cost to Moscow.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on Thursday that Russia has suffered the loss of 40,000 troops during the six months of conflict in Kursk, with 16,100 of those being fatalities.

“Ukrainian forces captured 909 Russian military personnel, significantly enhancing the exchange fund. This enabled the return of hundreds of Ukrainian defenders who were imprisoned in Russia,” the General Staff noted.

This incursion represents the first instance of foreign troops gaining control over Russian territory since World War II, marking a significant embarrassment for President Vladimir Putin, who has predominantly portrayed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a means of “defending” the nation.

The Ukrainian military has assessed that approximately 78,000 Russian troops have been stationed in Kursk, a number significantly exceeding Ukraine’s forces. According to Evans, “These Russian troops, which include members of elite units, are currently occupied and diverted in Kursk. If not, they would likely be engaged on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine, where they could inflict considerable damage.”

Despite this numerical superiority, the Russian military has faced challenges in dislodging Ukrainian forces from their territory, prompting Moscow to seek foreign assistance by deploying around 12,000 North Korean soldiers to the Kursk area.

This move marks the first instance of a Russian leader relying on foreign troops to reclaim Russian land, as noted by Evans.

She emphasized that the strategic implications of the Ukrainian forces’ actions in Kursk are “far more significant than what these troops could have accomplished by defending within Ukraine.”

While the military operations may not lead to the collapse of the Russian state, the pressures exerted on Russia could have that potential, she remarked, highlighting the growing discontent within Russia regarding Ukraine’s ability to maintain control over Russian territory for six months. “This situation significantly undermines Putin’s credibility domestically and challenges the narrative he has constructed for himself as a defender and stabilizer.”

During a conversation with Alexander Khinshtein, the acting governor of the Kursk region, on Wednesday, Putin acknowledged that the situation in Kursk is “very difficult.”

However, the North Korean troops have had minimal impact on Russia’s efforts to reclaim its territory, primarily serving as foot soldiers for brutal mass ground assaults that result in significant casualties.

Ukrainian officials and Western intelligence estimate that approximately 4,000 North Korean troops have been killed or injured. The South Korean intelligence agency reported earlier this week that the North Korean forces stationed in Kursk have not participated in combat since mid-January, corroborating earlier claims from the Ukrainian military.

Evans noted that Russia is facing challenges in countering Ukrainian forces due to Kyiv’s advanced use of technology, particularly drones and electronic warfare capabilities.