Both allies and adversaries of the U.S. are preparing for a new ‘America First’ phase

Less than a day after U.S. President Donald Trump took office on Monday, newly appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio engaged with foreign ministers from America’s key allies in the Indo-Pacific region, known as the “Quad,” which includes Australia, India, and Japan. This meeting coincided with the USS Carl Vinson completing its first significant training exercise of 2025 in waters near the Philippines.

While there has been considerable attention on resolving conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, it is not surprising that the Trump administration quickly turned its focus to nations critical to the U.S. strategy in confronting China.

However, early indications suggest that this new era may bring significant changes. Both America’s allies and adversaries seem to be adjusting to this evolving landscape. In his inaugural speech, Trump proclaimed a new “golden age” for the U.S., emphasizing military enhancement and territorial expansion—an ambition not voiced by any U.S. president in over a century. Notably, he did not mention allies or partners, instead prioritizing the concept of “America first” in all dealings.

During a recent address to State Department staff, Rubio emphasized that U.S. foreign policy would be focused on advancing national interests, stating, “Anything that makes us stronger or safer or more prosperous … that will be our mission.” Former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband remarked to a UK broadcaster that Trump was elected as a disruptor, conveying the message: “Buckle up.” He noted that there is skepticism regarding the notion that America benefits from its role as a global stabilizer, acknowledging the need to respect Trump’s electoral mandate while recognizing the seriousness of his intentions.

Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, who met with Rubio on Tuesday, was an early advocate of this rhetoric, emphasizing that Japan has been the largest foreign investor in the United States for the past five years and is now significantly increasing its defense spending, aligning with Trump’s demands.

On Thursday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte supported this view, stating that Trump was “correct” in urging U.S. allies to enhance their defense contributions.

Collectively, the Quad ministers expressed strong opposition to any unilateral actions in the region that aim to alter the status quo through force or coercion. This statement seemed to indirectly reference Taiwan, which China has consistently asserted it intends to “reunify” with the mainland, and U.S. military officials have indicated that Beijing may be poised to invade as early as 2027.

Several of Trump’s Pentagon appointees, including Elbridge Colby, the incoming Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, have contended that the U.S. should prioritize addressing the growing threat from China, potentially reallocating resources away from Europe and specifically Ukraine. However, they have also cautioned that Taiwan needs to enhance its own defense capabilities significantly.

This latter point could pose an early challenge for the Trump administration. Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang party, which was the Nationalist government that governed the island after fleeing from mainland China in 1949 and is now the most pro-China of the major parties, appears poised to obstruct the defense spending increases advocated by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

With increasing pressure from intensified Chinese patrols in their airspace and waters, a scenario where local politics hinder Taiwan’s defense buildup would be a worst-case outcome for President Lai Ching-te’s administration in Taipei. There are already concerns regarding remarks from Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance suggesting that Taiwan is not doing enough to warrant continued U.S. support.

Both Taiwan and the Philippines are likely encouraged by recent comments made by Rubio.

“If the Chinese are genuinely committed to stabilizing U.S.-China relations and preventing conflict, they must refrain from any actions—whether rational or irrational—concerning Taiwan and the Philippines,” Rubio stated during his Senate confirmation hearing last week. “They need to cease their provocations regarding Taiwan and the Philippines, as it compels us to redirect our focus in ways we would rather avoid.”

QUESTIONS ON EUROPE, UKRAINE

In contrast, Trump has emphasized his resolve to resolve conflicts in other regions as an indication of his commitment to preventing a broader global confrontation.

“I will bring an end to the war in Ukraine, halt the turmoil in the Middle East, and avert World War Three from occurring – and you have no idea how close we are,” he declared at a pre-inauguration rally.

Thus far, this approach appears to have facilitated the initiation of hostage releases under the Gaza ceasefire agreement, along with a pledge from Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen to refrain from attacking vessels not associated with Israel in nearby waters.

On his True Social media platform late Wednesday, Trump urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the “ridiculous war” in Ukraine or face heightened sanctions, taxes, and tariffs.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed to Bloomberg during the World Economic Forum in Davos this week that he believes U.S. troops should be included in any peacekeeping mission following the war in Ukraine. He stated, “Even if some European allies think it can be done without them, it cannot. No one will take risks without the United States.”

Both Zelenskiy and French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the necessity for Europe to enhance its own defense capabilities during the forum.

Last week, there were significant concerns regarding the potential for the new Trump administration to reduce military collaboration with allies or, at the very least, to insist that they increase their contributions. This topic loomed large during a meeting of NATO and allied defense chiefs in Brussels.

The meeting included representatives from NATO’s 32-nation military committee, as well as delegations from Japan, South Korea, Australia, and several other nations. U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman, Air Force General Charles “CQ” Brown, an African-American F-16 pilot, attended the gathering. He has faced calls for removal from likely incoming Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who criticized him for being overly focused on diversity. Brown has refrained from commenting on this matter but has indicated his intention to complete his term.

In recent months, NATO officials have been actively working to establish its latest command unit, NSATU – NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine – based in Wiesbaden, Germany. This unit consists of around 700 personnel from allied and partner nations, coordinating the delivery of weapons to the Ukrainian government in response to Russia’s invasion.

NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Chris Cavoli, who also serves as America’s leading commander on the continent, indicated that NSATU will involve the deployment of allied resources to safeguard weapons delivery sites from any potential Russian threats. Earlier this month, when Russian drones neared the NATO border while traversing Ukraine, Norwegian F-35 jets were deployed to intercept them should they breach alliance territory, although they ultimately did not.

Cavoli highlighted the rapid establishment of NATO’s new BALTIC SENTRY mission, which employs ships, aircraft, and drones to monitor suspected Russian activities that could interfere with critical subsea pipelines and cables. He noted that this initiative exemplifies the capabilities of NATO’s European members to operate independently of the United States, although other officials acknowledged that the drones benefited from U.S. expertise.

UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

NATO officials are optimistic that Trump and his associates will interpret these developments as evidence that Europe is attentive to security concerns. However, the reality remains that most European nations are still significantly below the 5% GDP defense commitment that Trump advocates. To date, only Lithuania and Poland have committed to achieving this target, while many other allies continue to fall short. Equally crucial is not only how Trump engages with allies but also how his relationship with potential adversaries evolves.

He has proposed new tariffs of 10 percent on Chinese imports, a decision directly associated with accusations that China has been facilitating the distribution of the highly addictive drug fentanyl into the United States and neighboring countries, a claim that Beijing refutes.

These proposed tariffs are significantly lower than the 60 percent rate that Trump suggested during his campaign for the presidency.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, who declined Trump’s invitation to the inauguration—an action that may have portrayed him as overly subservient—held what seemed to be a cordial conversation with Trump on the Friday before he took office. During this call, they discussed trade matters and the recent U.S. prohibition of the Chinese social media app TikTok, while Xi also extended his congratulations on Trump’s electoral victory.

Trump has credited TikTok with garnering support from younger voters and has vowed to reverse the Biden administration’s ban on the platform.

Shou Zi Chew, TikTok’s CEO, who was born in Singapore, attended the inauguration and was seated next to Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s nominee for Director of National Intelligence.

This situation may already be causing concern among U.S. allies, many of whom view TikTok as a tool for Chinese state influence, which is also utilized by Russia, and are apprehensive about Gabbard’s appointment.

The former congresswoman from Hawaii and U.S. Army reservist has yet to receive approval from the Senate but has previously met with and largely supported the ousted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, as well as echoed Kremlin narratives, particularly regarding Ukraine.

America’s potential adversaries are also assessing the implications of these developments.

Putin and Xi conducted a videoconference shortly after the inauguration ceremony in the U.S., likely to strategize on their response to Trump’s new transactional policies. Additionally, Russia recently finalized a defense agreement with another nation, although it did not include a mutual defense clause similar to the one established with North Korea.

The Trump administration is expected to seek ways to create divisions among China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran to diminish their collaborative efforts. However, this coalition, referred to as the new “axis of resistance” or “upheaval,” aims to see the unraveling of America’s alliances that have upheld Western dominance since 1945.