A senior official from Ukraine has raised concerns about the effectiveness of the M982 Excalibur, a high-tech American artillery shell, pointing out its susceptibility to Russian electronic warfare strategies.
Yegor Chernev, the deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on Security, recently remarked that the GPS-guided munition, which costs tens of thousands of dollars per round, has faced challenges in maintaining its accuracy due to advanced jamming technologies.
This criticism, stemming from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, prompts broader discussions regarding the dependability of cutting-edge weaponry in contemporary warfare, where electronic countermeasures are becoming increasingly common.
Although the Excalibur was previously celebrated for its exceptional accuracy, its reported limitations underscore a technological arms race that may influence how militaries globally develop and utilize precision-guided munitions.
The M982 Excalibur is a 155mm extended-range guided artillery shell, created through a partnership between Raytheon Missiles & Defense and BAE Systems Bofors. It was introduced to the U.S. Army in 2007, designed to provide precise strikes in complex combat scenarios.
The shell employs a combination of GPS and inertial navigation systems to hit targets with a circular error probable of less than four meters, allowing it to land within approximately 13 feet of its intended target. This level of accuracy enables engagement of enemy positions, bunkers, or vehicles while reducing collateral damage, which is crucial for operations near civilian populations or allied forces.
With a firing range of about 25 miles from standard howitzers like the M777, and up to 43 miles in tests with advanced systems, the Excalibur equips commanders with the capability to strike distant targets without the need for air support.
Its folding glide fins enhance its range, while its warhead, weighing approximately 22 kilograms, can be adjusted for point detonation, delayed detonation, or height-of-burst, making it adaptable for various targets. The cost of the shell, typically reported to be between $70,000 and $100,000 per round, reflects its advanced engineering and highlights the critical implications of any performance issues.
When Ukraine began receiving Excalibur shells from the United States in 2022, they were hailed as transformative. Footage released by Ukrainian forces demonstrated the rounds effectively destroying Russian equipment with pinpoint accuracy, targeting everything from tanks to artillery.
General Valeriy Zaluzhny, who was Ukraine’s commander-in-chief at the time, commended their precision in strikes along the Dnipro River, where they successfully disrupted Russian artillery targeting the city of Mykolaiv. Initial reports indicated that the shells achieved a success rate of about 70%, a significant enhancement compared to unguided artillery, which can miss targets by hundreds of feet.
The Excalibur’s capability to hit a target with a single shot, rather than needing multiple rounds to bracket it, allowed Ukrainian gunners to conserve ammunition and minimize their risk of counter-battery fire. This efficiency proved crucial for a military contending with a numerically superior adversary.
As the conflict continued, the effectiveness of the Excalibur began to diminish. Russian forces adapted to the threat by deploying sophisticated electronic warfare systems aimed at disrupting GPS signals.
These systems, including the Krasukha-4 and Zhitel, emit strong radio waves that jam satellite navigation, leading GPS-guided munitions to lose their target lock. Without accurate guidance, the Excalibur’s flight path becomes unpredictable, resulting in potential misses of several meters or failures to detonate as intended.
By mid-2023, Ukrainian evaluations indicated a significant drop in the shell’s success rate, with some estimates suggesting it plummeted to as low as 6%. This steep decline led Kyiv to reduce its reliance on the munition, and the U.S. eventually ceased deliveries, citing the high failure rate.
A report from the Washington Post in May 2024 confirmed that Ukraine had communicated these challenges to Washington, emphasizing how Russian jamming had diminished the shell’s effectiveness on the battlefield.
The core issue stems from the Excalibur’s dependence on GPS, a groundbreaking system that is not impervious to interference. GPS signals are relatively weak, traveling vast distances from satellites to ground receivers. Jamming devices take advantage of this vulnerability by emitting noise on the same frequencies, overwhelming the signal and disrupting the munition’s guidance system.
While the Excalibur is equipped with an inertial navigation backup that uses internal sensors to estimate its position based on acceleration and direction, this method is less accurate, particularly over long distances. Over the past decade, Russian forces have refined their electronic warfare capabilities, incorporating systems like the Pole-21, which can disrupt GPS signals over extensive areas.
These developments have impacted not only the Excalibur but also other munitions supplied by the West, including JDAM-ER bombs and HIMARS rockets, which utilize comparable navigation systems.
This is not the first instance where advanced weaponry has been rendered ineffective by countermeasures. In the 1999 NATO operation in Kosovo, Yugoslav forces employed basic jamming techniques to disrupt American cruise missiles, compelling pilots to modify their strategies.
In the early 2000s, insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan utilized simple radio jammers to incapacitate remote-controlled explosives, leading the U.S. to create frequency-hopping technologies. More recently, Hezbollah has deployed Iranian-supplied jammers to disrupt Israeli drones, thereby restricting their reconnaissance capabilities.
These cases exemplify a recurring cycle in warfare: a new technology achieves dominance until an opponent discovers a method to counter it, prompting a new wave of innovation. The challenges faced by the Excalibur in Ukraine reflect this trend, highlighting that no weapon is immune to adaptation.
For Ukrainian artillery units, the diminishing reliability of the Excalibur has been a significant source of frustration. Gunners who were trained to anticipate nearly flawless strikes have had to revert to older, less accurate techniques, launching volleys of unguided shells to ensure successful hits.
This transition leads to increased ammunition usage and heightens the risk for crews, as they must hold their positions longer to make necessary adjustments. Some units have responded by integrating artillery with drones, utilizing real-time reconnaissance to verify targets prior to firing. However, this solution relies heavily on the availability of drones and effective communication.
The psychological impact is also considerable. Soldiers who previously depended on the Excalibur’s accuracy now confront uncertainty, aware that an expensive round could miss its target, leaving them exposed and their position compromised.
The ramifications of this issue reach well beyond the front lines in Ukraine. The conflict has evolved into a proving ground for contemporary warfare, attracting the attention of nations such as the United States and China, who are keenly analyzing its insights.
The Excalibur’s susceptibility to jamming has ignited discussions within the Pentagon regarding the future of weapons reliant on GPS. Engineers are investigating alternatives, including laser-guided systems that target areas illuminated by a designator, as well as autonomous munitions that leverage artificial intelligence to identify and engage targets without the need for external signals.
The U.S. Army is already channeling resources into initiatives like the Precision Strike Missile, which integrates various guidance methods to enhance resistance to jamming. Meanwhile, adversaries are taking note of these developments. China, which deploys its own GPS-guided artillery such as the BP-12A, is likely enhancing its electronic warfare capabilities to counter Western munitions, mirroring actions taken by Russia.
When comparing the Excalibur to the artillery systems of other nations, both its advantages and drawbacks become apparent. For instance, Russia’s Krasnopol, a laser-guided 152mm shell, provides precision similar to that of the Excalibur but necessitates a spotter to illuminate the target, which restricts its adaptability in contested scenarios.
China’s GP155A, another GPS-guided artillery round, offers a comparable range but does not have the established combat history of the Excalibur. Western alternatives, such as Germany’s Vulcano, which utilizes both GPS and laser guidance, seek to mitigate vulnerabilities to jamming, yet their deployment remains limited.
These options illustrate a significant trade-off: while laser guidance can circumvent GPS jamming, it requires a direct line of sight and human intervention, which may not always be practical. The Excalibur’s design, which integrates range, autonomy, and accuracy, remains unparalleled in theory, but its effectiveness in real-world scenarios now depends on its ability to counter electronic warfare tactics.
Historically, the Excalibur has demonstrated its value in previous conflicts. In Iraq and Afghanistan, it enabled U.S. forces to target insurgent positions in urban settings while minimizing civilian casualties. A 2008 U.S. Army report indicated that 92% of Excalibur rounds fired in Iraq landed within four meters of their intended targets, a level of precision unattainable by unguided artillery.
This success led to its widespread adoption among allies, including Canada, Australia, and India, who incorporated the shell into their M777 howitzers. However, those conflict zones did not experience the same level of electronic warfare capabilities as seen in Ukraine.
Insurgents lacked the ability to jam GPS signals, and U.S. air dominance ensured reliable satellite communication. In contrast, Ukraine’s battlefield, characterized by a dense array of jammers and contested airspace, presents a much more intricate environment, revealing vulnerabilities that were not apparent in earlier conflicts.
The overarching question is how military forces will adjust to this evolving landscape. Electronic warfare capabilities are not exclusive to Russia; the U.S. possesses systems like the AN/ALQ-249, designed to disrupt enemy communications and navigation. However, the rapid and extensive nature of Russia’s jamming operations in Ukraine has taken Western strategists by surprise.
A 2023 article in The Economist highlighted the widespread failure of Excalibur shells early in the year, with weeks elapsing without a successful strike. This situation led to urgent talks between Kyiv and Washington, as Ukraine advocated for software updates to enhance the shells’ precision.
While some improvements have been made to other systems, such as JDAM bombs, the future of the Excalibur remains uncertain. The U.S. decision to halt deliveries indicates a potential shift in focus, possibly towards the development of next-generation munitions that are less dependent on vulnerable technologies.
For the average American, this narrative may seem remote, yet it holds significant implications domestically. Each Excalibur round symbolizes taxpayer investment—hundreds of millions allocated to a weapon now rendered ineffective by an adversary’s cleverness.
According to Pentagon records from 2022, the U.S. has supplied Ukraine with billions in assistance, including over 3,000 Excalibur shells. When these munitions fail to perform, it ignites discussions about defense funding and military strategies. However, the matter extends beyond financial considerations.
The soldiers utilizing these rounds, whether Ukrainian or American in future engagements, rely on their dependability. A missed shot is not merely a statistic; it represents a critical moment where lives are at stake, a bunker remains unscathed, or a tank continues its offensive.
Looking forward, the challenges faced by the Excalibur mark a pivotal moment. The era of unquestioned GPS supremacy may be coming to a close, compelling engineers to reconsider their approaches to achieving precision. The Pentagon’s strategy—whether it involves developing robust GPS receivers, implementing multi-mode guidance, or creating entirely new systems—will influence the landscape of warfare for the next ten years.
Other countries are observing closely, and their advancements are likely to follow suit. For example, China’s expanding electronic warfare capabilities could present similar obstacles in a potential conflict in the Pacific. Additionally, the human toll remains a significant factor. Ukrainian artillery units, adapting to these challenges, exemplify the resilience of those caught in a technological struggle, with their creativity being as vital as the equipment they use.
This moment feels like a turning point. The Excalibur’s potential for precision was genuine, but so is the necessity for adaptation. Warfare evolves more rapidly than the news can report, and what is considered a solution today may become a lesson tomorrow. The lingering question is whether the U.S. and its allies can stay ahead of the jammers, or if the battlefield will require a new form of accuracy that we have yet to conceive.
Discover more from Defence Talks | Defense News Hub, Military Updates, Security Insights
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
