The elimination or incapacitation of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah would represent a substantial setback for the Iran-supported Lebanese organization he has directed for 32 years, analysts indicated on Friday following reports of an Israeli strike aimed at him. A source affiliated with Hezbollah confirmed that Nasrallah survived the attack that occurred in the southern suburbs of Beirut, a stronghold for the group, on Friday evening. Additionally, a senior Iranian security official stated that Tehran was verifying Nasrallah’s condition.

Finding a successor for Nasrallah would now pose an even greater challenge than it has in recent years, particularly after a series of Israeli operations that have resulted in the deaths of key Hezbollah commanders and raised concerns about the group’s internal security. “The entire landscape would shift dramatically,” remarked Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy research director at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

“He has been the unifying force behind an expanding organization,” Hage Ali noted. Established by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in the early 1980s to confront Israel, Hezbollah also serves as a significant social, religious, and political entity for Lebanese Shi’ite Muslims, with Nasrallah at its core. “He has become a legendary figure for the Lebanese Shia,” Hage Ali added. Nasrallah assumed leadership of Hezbollah following the assassination of his predecessor by Israel and has faced constant threats to his life ever since.

A European diplomat remarked on the group’s strategy, stating, “You eliminate one, and they replace him.” However, in light of a recent wave of Israeli victories in its conflict with Hezbollah, coupled with a barrage of airstrikes, the death of the group’s leader would significantly complicate an already tense situation for Hezbollah.

Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House in London, noted, “While Hezbollah would not disintegrate with the loss of Nasrallah, it would deal a substantial blow to the group’s morale. Furthermore, it would highlight Israel’s military and security dominance.”

The effect of Nasrallah’s potential demise on Hezbollah’s operational strength remains uncertain. The ongoing exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah along the Lebanese border has escalated into the most severe conflict since 2006, ignited by the situation in Gaza.

Khatib added, “Israel aims to leverage this pressure to establish a new status quo that ensures security in its northern region, but achieving this will not be swift, even with Nasrallah’s removal.”

Following the strike in Beirut, Hezbollah launched several rocket attacks on Israel, which analysts interpreted as an attempt to demonstrate its continued operational capability despite Israel’s claims of targeting Hezbollah’s command center.

Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, stated, “Israel has declared a full-scale war, seizing this opportunity to dismantle the leadership and infrastructure of Hezbollah.”

He further explained, “The goal is to weaken Hezbollah’s influence. It is not necessary to eliminate every member; rather, if the combat structure is destroyed and they are compelled to surrender, it undermines their credibility.”

SUCCESSORS

Any new leader must gain acceptance not only within the organization in Lebanon but also from its supporters in Iran, according to Philip Smyth, an expert on Shi’ite militias.

Hashem Safieddine, who is widely seen as the successor to Nasrallah, survived the recent attack, as confirmed by a source close to Hezbollah. Safieddine, who manages Hezbollah’s political affairs and is a member of the group’s Jihad Council, is a cousin of Nasrallah and, like him, is a cleric recognized by the black turban that signifies descent from the Prophet Mohammed.

The U.S. State Department labeled him a terrorist in 2017, and in June, he issued a warning of significant retaliation against Israel following the death of another Hezbollah commander, stating, “Let (the enemy) prepare himself to cry and wail,” during the funeral.

Smyth noted that Nasrallah has been positioning Safieddine within various councils of Lebanese Hezbollah, some of which are less transparent than others, allowing him to engage publicly. Smyth emphasized that Safieddine’s familial connections, physical likeness to Nasrallah, and his religious heritage as a descendant of Mohammed would all work in his favor.