A senior Iranian official announced on Friday that Iran will be dispatching missiles, drones, and additional advisers to Syria, as rebel forces launched a rapid offensive southward towards Homs, presenting the most significant challenge to President Bashar al-Assad‘s authority in years. Capturing Homs would sever the connection between Syria’s capital, Damascus, and the coast, which has long been a stronghold for Assad’s minority Alawite sect and where Russian allies maintain both a naval and an air base.

After years of stagnation along established front lines, insurgents have emerged from their stronghold in northwestern Idlib, achieving the fastest military advance by either side since the civil war erupted 13 years ago following a street uprising against Assad. Although Assad had regained control over most of Syria with the support of key allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—these allies have recently faced challenges that have weakened their positions, allowing Syrian Sunni militants a chance to counterattack.

In an interview with CNN, the leader of the Syrian faction spearheading the offensive, formerly known as an Al-Qaeda affiliate and now called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), expressed the group’s intention to “build Syria” and facilitate the return of Syrian refugees from Lebanon and Europe. This marked Abu Mohammed Al-Golani’s first interview since his group began reclaiming territory from Assad’s forces on November 27. Rebels have already taken two major cities and are advancing towards the strategically important city of Homs.

HTS separated from Al-Qaeda in 2016, asserting that it does not pose a threat to Western nations and has dedicated years to reshaping its image as a legitimate alternative to Assad.

UNEXPECTED OFFENSIVE

The rebels’ advance has caught the region off guard. Iran has been concentrating on its longstanding tensions with Israel since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict in October 2023. An official, speaking anonymously, indicated that it is probable Tehran will need to supply military equipment, missiles, and drones to Syria. “Tehran has taken all necessary measures to increase the presence of its military advisers in Syria and deploy additional forces,” the official stated. “Currently, Tehran is also offering intelligence and satellite support to Syria.” The Israeli military announced that it is bolstering its aerial and ground forces in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and is prepared for any eventualities.

Iranian-backed Hezbollah has deployed a limited number of “supervising forces” from Lebanon to Syria overnight, aiming to thwart anti-government fighters from capturing Homs, according to two senior Lebanese security sources who spoke to Reuters.

HTS rebels have claimed control over the towns of Talbisa and Rastan, positioning themselves just a few miles from Homs. In response, the Syrian military has denied reports of a withdrawal from Homs, asserting in a statement that it maintains “steady and solid defense lines” in the area.

A local resident in Homs reported that the offices of the main security branches had been vacated, with personnel leaving the city. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring organization based in the UK, indicated that thousands began fleeing Homs on Thursday night, heading towards the coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, which are government strongholds.

A resident from the coast noted that many people were arriving from Homs, driven by fears of the rebels’ swift progress. Wasim Marouh, a Homs resident who chose to stay, observed that most of the main commercial streets were deserted, while pro-government militia groups patrolled the area. A senior U.N. official warned on Friday that up to 1.5 million people could be compelled to flee if fighting escalates in Syria.

The ongoing violence has already forced 280,000 individuals to flee since it began in late November, according to Samer AbdelJaber from the World Food Programme, who spoke to reporters in Geneva.

ISLAMIC STATE

In a concerning turn of events for Assad, the leader of the U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish forces reported that the extremist group Islamic State, which previously instilled fear across large parts of Iraq and Syria until its defeat by a U.S.-led coalition in 2017, has regained control over certain regions in eastern Syria.

“Recent developments have led to an uptick in the movement of Islamic State militants in the Syrian desert, particularly in the southern and western areas of Deir Al-Zor and the outskirts of al-Raqqa,” stated Mazloum Abdi during a press conference, highlighting the situation in eastern Syria.

Rebels affiliated with HTS are attempting to leverage their rapid capture of Aleppo in the north and Hama in west-central Syria by advancing towards Homs, which is located approximately 40 km (24 miles) to the south. An operations room for the rebels called on Homs residents through an online message to rise up, declaring, “Your time has come.”

In response, Russian airstrikes overnight targeted and destroyed the Rastan bridge along the M5 highway, the primary route to Homs, in an effort to hinder the rebels’ progress, as reported by a Syrian army officer to Reuters.

Government troops were deploying additional forces to areas surrounding Homs, he noted. During the peak years of the civil war, Assad depended significantly on military support from Russia and Iran, which enabled him to regain control over much of the territory and major cities in Syria before the front lines stabilized in 2020. However, since 2022, Russia has shifted its focus to its invasion of Ukraine, and numerous high-ranking members of Hezbollah have been killed by Israeli actions in recent months. According to a report from the TASS state news agency on Friday, Russia’s embassy in Damascus has advised its citizens to exit Syria using commercial flights.