During a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday, Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister of Iran, expressed optimism that US President Donald Trump would adopt a more “rational” approach towards Iran in his second term.
“I hope that this time, a ‘Trump 2’ will be more serious, more focused, and more realistic,” Zarif stated, emphasizing that Iran does not pose a security threat to the global community.
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement indicating that Zarif would not engage in meetings with US or third-country officials during his visit.
However, there was considerable speculation regarding potential informal discussions with officials from the Trump administration.
Recently, the US president has made significant appointments and dismissed certain diplomats, suggesting a possible shift towards engagement that could facilitate a deal with Iran.
In 2018, as part of his “maximum pressure” strategy, Trump withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly referred to as the nuclear deal, which was a significant diplomatic achievement of the Obama administration. While UN and European partners continued to support the agreement, Iran opted to pursue its own course in the absence of US involvement.
The subsequent heavy sanctions imposed by the US have left Iran struggling to recover economically since that time.
In January 2020, the United States carried out the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s highest-ranking military general, while he was in Iraq. Following his presidency, Donald Trump disclosed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had urged him to proceed with the action, although Israel later declined to participate in the operation.
Recently, in a clear indication of Iran’s willingness to improve relations with Washington to alleviate its economic difficulties, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that he does not allow the Islamic Republic’s armed forces to pursue the development of nuclear weapons.
However, the question remains: how receptive is Trump to the idea of mending ties with Tehran?
The hawks
In the early hours of Tuesday in Washington, Trump dismissed his former envoy to Iran from a position at the Wilson Center, a role appointed by the White House. Brian Hook, who had spearheaded the “maximum pressure campaign,” was recognized as a prominent hawk within government circles.
“Brian Hook, upon his appointment by Trump to oversee the State Department transition last year, immediately began giving television interviews that seemed to reflect the mindset of 2017 and 2018… as if he had never left his role, effectively constraining Trump’s political options,” remarked Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council, in an interview.
“I suspect that played a significant role in this decision.”
Just thirty minutes prior to Hook’s dismissal, Trump also retracted the security detail assigned to his former national security advisor, John Bolton, whom he labeled a “warmonger” responsible for exacerbating tensions in the Middle East.
Bolton has long been vocal about his belief that the United States should engage in direct military action against Iran. In 2022, the Department of Justice (DOJ) charged an Iranian individual for conspiring to assassinate him.
“I am disappointed but not surprised that President Trump has chosen to end the protection previously afforded by the United States Secret Service,” Bolton stated on X.
“The threat to my life persists today, as evidenced by the recent arrest of an individual attempting to orchestrate an assassination of President Trump.”
In November, the DOJ charged another Iranian national, claiming he was acting under directives from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps to eliminate Trump.
Restraint
Despite the president’s commitment to a firm stance against Tehran—particularly as he pursues his “peace through strength” strategy—he has also appointed individuals who support a more measured approach to significant positions. These selections may suggest a potential shift in the administration’s strategy.
One notable appointment is Michael DiMino, who was sworn in on Monday as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, effectively serving as the Pentagon’s primary policymaker for the region, according to an Al-Monitor report.
DiMino, a former CIA counterterrorism officer, has commended the Biden administration for refraining from participating in Israel’s missile strikes on Iran and has expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of American intervention aimed at regime change.
“I believe he embodies the most constructive aspects of Donald Trump’s philosophy regarding the US role in the Middle East,” Abdi remarked.
He noted that DiMino is echoing many of Trump’s statements, and there is hope that he can effectively translate those ideas into concrete policy.
Elbridge Colby is also expected to take on a senior position at the Pentagon as the under secretary for defense policy. Colby, the grandson of former CIA director William Colby, served at the Pentagon during the previous Trump administration.
Since that time, he has publicly articulated his foreign policy priorities and frequently expressed his views on where he believes Washington should focus its national security and military efforts: on China rather than the Middle East.
Additionally, Trump is reportedly considering the nomination of right-wing former congressional candidate Joe Kent to lead the National Counterterrorism Center, as reported by Politico last week. This could result in another senior Trump official advocating for a diminished military presence in the Middle East.
“Trump has not yet issued an executive order reinstating ‘maximum pressure,’ nor has he delivered a speech declaring, ‘We’re going to crush these guys.’ While his advisors have made such statements, we have not heard that directly from him, which I find noteworthy,” Abdi commented.
Abdi pointed out that the diplomatic avenues under the Biden administration have been “limited.”
“As it stands, discussions are necessary; otherwise, the prevailing message from Washington is, ‘Now is the time to bomb,’ and the sentiment from Tel Aviv mirrors that,” he stated.
“This approach must change. It needs to happen swiftly.”
Discover more from Defence Talks | Defense News Hub, Military Updates, Security Insights
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
