2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his longstanding adversary, Iran. The experienced Israeli leader aims to solidify his strategic objectives, which include enhancing military dominance over Gaza, countering Iran’s nuclear pursuits, and taking advantage of the weakening of Tehran’s allies—namely, Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The downfall of Assad, along with the removal of key figures from Hamas and Hezbollah and the dismantling of their military capabilities, represents a series of significant victories for Netanyahu. With Syria’s influence diminished, the alliances that Iran has cultivated over the years are disintegrating. As Iran’s power wanes, Israel is positioning itself as the preeminent force in the region.
Netanyahu is expected to intensify efforts against Iran’s nuclear program and missile capabilities, maintaining a relentless focus on neutralizing these strategic threats to Israel’s security.
Observers of the Middle East suggest that Iran faces a critical decision: to persist with its nuclear enrichment or to curtail its atomic activities in favor of negotiations. “Iran is particularly susceptible to an Israeli strike, especially regarding its nuclear initiatives,” noted Joost R. Hiltermann, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the International Crisis Group. “I wouldn’t rule out an Israeli action, but that won’t eliminate Iran’s presence.”
“If the Iranians remain steadfast, both Trump and Netanyahu could take military action, as there are currently no barriers to prevent them,” stated Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib, referencing President-elect Donald Trump. Khatib posited that the Iranian leadership, having shown a willingness to be pragmatic in the past, might consider compromise to avoid a military conflict.
Trump, who exited a 2015 agreement involving Iran and six global powers designed to limit Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, is expected to intensify sanctions on Iran’s oil sector. This comes despite appeals from critics advocating for a return to negotiations, viewing diplomacy as a more sustainable long-term strategy.
Netanyahu POISED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE HIS LEGACY
In the context of the ongoing crises in Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu’s protracted corruption trial, which resumed in December, is poised to significantly influence his legacy. For the first time since the onset of the Gaza conflict in 2023, Netanyahu has taken the witness stand in a case that has deeply polarized Israeli society.
As 2024 approaches, it is anticipated that the Israeli prime minister will consent to a ceasefire agreement with Hamas to end the 14-month-long Gaza war and secure the release of Israeli hostages held in the region, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
However, without a post-war U.S. strategy for Israel to transfer authority to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Netanyahu opposes, Gaza is likely to remain under Israeli military oversight. Arab nations have shown limited willingness to urge Israel toward compromise or to encourage the beleaguered PA to reform its leadership for a potential takeover.
“Israel is expected to maintain its military presence in Gaza for the foreseeable future, as any withdrawal poses the risk of Hamas re-establishing itself. Israel believes that sustaining its military advantages necessitates remaining in Gaza,” Khatib informed Reuters.
For Netanyahu, achieving such an outcome would signify a strategic triumph, reinforcing a status quo that corresponds with his objectives: obstructing Palestinian statehood while maintaining Israel’s enduring dominance over Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem—regions that are globally acknowledged as essential for a prospective Palestinian state.
The conflict in Gaza ignited when Hamas militants launched an incursion into Israel on October 7, 2023, resulting in the deaths of 1,200 individuals and the abduction of 250 hostages, as reported by Israeli sources. In retaliation, Israel initiated an air and ground offensive that has reportedly claimed 45,000 lives, according to local health authorities, displacing 1.2 million people and leaving significant portions of the territory devastated.
Although a ceasefire agreement would provide an immediate cessation of hostilities in Gaza, it would fail to resolve the underlying, long-standing Palestinian-Israeli conflict, as noted by officials from both Arab and Western nations.
On the ground, the likelihood of establishing a Palestinian state—an option consistently dismissed by Netanyahu’s administration—has become increasingly elusive, with Israeli settler leaders expressing optimism that Trump will closely align with their perspectives.
A rise in settler violence and the growing assertiveness of the settler movement, evidenced by highway billboards in certain West Bank regions proclaiming in Arabic “No Future in Palestine,” illustrate the intensifying pressure on Palestinians.
Even if the Trump administration were to advocate for a resolution to the conflict, any potential agreement would likely be dictated by Israel’s conditions, according to Hiltermann from the Crisis Group.
It is concluded regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state, yet the Palestinian presence remains, he stated. During Trump’s previous administration, Netanyahu achieved notable diplomatic successes, including the “Deal of the Century,” a U.S.-endorsed peace initiative proposed in 2020 aimed at addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Should this plan be enacted, it would signify a significant departure from traditional U.S. policy and international accords by explicitly supporting Israel and moving away from the long-established land-for-peace principle that has historically shaped negotiations.
The proposal would permit Israel to annex extensive areas of the occupied West Bank, encompassing Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley. Additionally, it would designate Jerusalem as the “undivided capital of Israel,” effectively negating Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem as their capital, which is a fundamental aspect of their aspirations for statehood and aligns with U.N. resolutions.
SYRIA AT A CRUCIAL JUNCTURE
On the other side of the Israeli border, Syria finds itself at a pivotal moment following the ousting of Assad by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel forces, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, commonly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Golani now confronts the daunting challenge of unifying control over a fragmented Syria, where both military and police structures have disintegrated. HTS must start anew, securing borders and ensuring internal stability while facing threats from jihadists, remnants of the Assad regime, and various other opponents.
The primary concern for both Syrians and external observers is whether HTS, which has historical ties to al-Qaeda but is now attempting to position itself as a Syrian nationalist entity for legitimacy, will revert to a strict Islamist ideology. The group’s success or failure in maintaining this balance will significantly influence Syria’s future, a nation characterized by its diverse populations, including Sunnis, Shi’ites, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians.
Hiltermann remarked, “If they manage to embrace Syrian nationalism, there is hope for the country; however, if they fall back into their familiar pattern of rigid Islamism, it could lead to further division within Syria.” He cautioned that this could result in prolonged chaos and a weakened state, reminiscent of the situations in Libya and Iraq.
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