Italy’s Meloni caught in a dilemma between loyalty to Trump and commitment to Europe

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is navigating a complex political landscape as Europe seeks to strengthen its defenses. A nationalist who holds a strong admiration for U.S. President Donald Trump, she faces the challenge of reconciling her ideological alignment with Washington and Italy’s strategic connections to the European Union, according to analysts.

Meloni was the sole EU leader present at Trump’s inauguration in January and has been careful to avoid criticizing the U.S. president, even as he has imposed tariffs on Europe and threatened to withdraw support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

Although she has participated in urgent discussions with European allies regarding the disruptions caused by Trump’s foreign policy, her level of engagement has sometimes appeared lackluster, leading domestic critics to accuse her of isolating Italy within the EU. Since taking office in 2023, Meloni has rejected claims that she is influenced by Trump as she prepares for a summit of European leaders this week. “I do not follow either Europe or the United States blindly… I am in Europe because Italy is in Europe, and we are not considering going elsewhere, but I also want a united West,” she stated in parliament.

Since founding her Brothers of Italy party in 2012, Meloni has prioritized strong relations with the United States in her foreign policy while moderating her earlier, more intense euroscepticism. Trump’s aggressive approach towards traditional allies, aimed at bolstering American influence, has unsettled pro-Atlanticists and compelled Europe to quickly reassess its geopolitical strategies and enhance its defenses. This upheaval has stalled Meloni’s aspirations to act as a conduit between Europe and the White House, as France and Britain, the continent’s two nuclear powers, take the lead in responding to Trump, while Germany captures attention with plans for significant military spending increases.

Currently, Meloni lacks the influence necessary to act as a mediator with Trump, according to Giovanni Orsina, a political science professor at Luiss University in Rome. He noted that if Trumpism transitions into a more constructive phase, she may find an opportunity to engage, drawing on both political and personal connections.

DEFENSE BUDGET

Last month, Meloni urged for an “immediate summit” between the United States and its allies following Trump’s criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during a White House meeting, but her request went unheeded by Washington. Sources from Meloni’s office, who wished to remain anonymous, indicated that the Italian Prime Minister is aiming for a meeting with Trump in late March or early April, coinciding with the European Union’s plans to impose counter tariffs on €26 billion ($28 billion) worth of U.S. goods in retaliation for American tariffs on steel and aluminum.

In her recent parliamentary speech, Meloni expressed doubts about the effectiveness of retaliatory tariffs and called for Europe to maintain its military collaboration with the United States within NATO. Alarmed by Trump’s remarks suggesting he might not defend NATO allies in the future, the European Commission has proposed a plan to increase military spending across the bloc by €800 billion ($869 billion), while France has indicated it may consider extending its nuclear protection to European partners.

“It is essential for Europe to prepare to fulfill its responsibilities, but it is at best naive and at worst reckless to believe that it can do so independently of NATO,” Meloni stated, refraining from commenting on whether Italy, which carries significant debt, would increase its defense budget. Italy is among the lowest spenders on defense within NATO, allocating only 1.5% of its gross domestic product in 2024, which falls short of the 2% guideline set by NATO and far from the 5% that Trump has called for.

This has diminished her influence in Washington, according to diplomats.

“Trump believes that everyone should contribute,” stated Kurt Volker, a former U.S. NATO ambassador who served during the initial Trump administration. “He is likely to target other nations before focusing on Italy… but it will definitely be on his radar,” he informed Reuters.

ITALIAN INDUSTRY

In spite of U.S. pressure, Meloni encounters resistance from her coalition partner, the far-right League, regarding participation in the European Commission’s “ReArm” initiative. “Ask our mothers what they think… You’ll find they all respond the same way: ‘No’,” remarked Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, a prominent member of the League.

Public backing for increased defense spending in Italy is minimal, particularly given the anti-war sentiments expressed by Pope Francis. An IPSOS poll conducted this month revealed that 39% of voters opposed the ReArm initiative, while only 28% supported it, with the remainder undecided.

Nevertheless, Italy’s substantial arms industry, featuring major players like Leonardo and Fincantieri, risks losing out on significant opportunities if Meloni opts out of the project. “It is crucial for the defense sector to expand, grow, and generate new jobs at this time, and it would be unusual for Italy to overlook such an opportunity,” European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius told reporters on Wednesday.

Nathalie Tocci, director of Italy’s Institute of International Affairs think tank, noted that Meloni cannot remain neutral between Washington and Brussels indefinitely. “Her inclination is towards America, but ultimately she will heed the practical reality that Italy is part of Europe. Our economy is closely linked with Germany, and that cannot be altered,” she stated.