Moscow war bloggers report that Russian military installations in Syria are at risk from advancing insurgents

Two key Russian military installations in Syria, along with Moscow’s ongoing presence in the Middle East, are facing significant risks from rapidly advancing insurgent forces, according to warnings from Russian war bloggers.

With the majority of Russian military assets focused on the conflict in Ukraine, where efforts are being made to secure additional territory before the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in January, Russia’s capacity to exert influence in Syria is considerably diminished compared to its decisive intervention in 2015, which aimed to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The swift progress of insurgents poses a threat to Russia’s geopolitical influence in the Middle East and its ability to project power across the Mediterranean and into Africa. This situation could also result in a notable embarrassment for President Vladimir Putin, who has portrayed Russia’s involvement in Syria as a demonstration of its capability to shape international events and compete with Western powers.

Russian war bloggers, some of whom maintain close ties to the Russian Defense Ministry and enjoy a degree of freedom to express their views, emphasize that the most pressing concern is the future of Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Latakia province and its naval facility in Tartous. The Tartous facility serves as Russia’s sole repair and replenishment hub in the Mediterranean, and Moscow has utilized Syria as a critical point for deploying military contractors to and from Africa.

An influential Russian war blogger known as “Rybar,” who maintains close ties with the Russian Defence Ministry and boasts over 1.3 million followers on his Telegram channel, has expressed concerns regarding the serious threats faced by Moscow’s forces. He cautioned, “We must recognize that the insurgents will not relent. Their objective is to deliver maximum defeat and inflict significant reputational and physical harm on representatives of the Russian Federation in Syria, particularly targeting our military installations.”

Rybar emphasized that relying solely on the Syrian army is futile, as it will continue to retreat without adequate support from the Russian air force and specialists. The Russian Defence Ministry was unavailable for comment due to the non-working day, while the Russian Embassy in Damascus has advised its nationals to exit Syria.

In response to inquiries about the future of Russian bases during a recent event in Doha, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated he was “not in the business of guessing” but assured that Moscow is taking all necessary measures to prevent “terrorists” from gaining the upper hand. He expressed that his primary concern lies with the well-being of the Syrian people rather than the implications for his own reputation or that of Russia.

RUSSIAN FORCES IN A VULNERABLE POSITION, ACCORDING TO BLOGGER

The Russian air force has been instrumental in supporting government forces with air strikes against insurgents, and the Kremlin continues to back Assad while assessing the situation to determine necessary assistance for stabilization. However, another war blogger known as “Fighterbomber,” who has over 500,000 followers, indicated that Russian forces in Syria are in a precarious position. He warned that losing the Hmeimim airbase would significantly diminish Moscow’s operational capabilities, as air strikes account for approximately 75% of their effectiveness in the region.

The Hmeimim airfield is not a complex industrial facility with multiple levels and basements. Instead, it consists of simple structures that could become non-operational if the enemy approaches within artillery or drone range, he stated.

The situation at the naval base in Tartous is similar. While it can be defended for an extended period if there are adequate resources and personnel, its operational capacity would be severely limited or entirely compromised.

He also cautioned that a complete evacuation of all Russian military assets would not be feasible if the situation demanded it.

Thus, the primary objective for our forces in Syria is to prevent enemy access to Latakia, even if it necessitates temporarily relinquishing control over other areas.

With a following of over 600,000, war blogger “Starshe Eddi” remarked that Russia has incurred significant costs for its presence in Syria.

“After ten years, with Russian soldiers lost, billions of roubles expended, and thousands of tonnes of ammunition used, there must be some form of compensation,” he noted.

“The only way to potentially offset our current setbacks and the resources we have depleted is to maintain control over the Latakia and Tartous regions.”

Igor Girkin, a notable former militia leader who fought in Ukraine and is currently serving a four-year sentence for criticizing Putin and military leadership regarding the Ukraine conflict, pointed out that Moscow’s position in Syria has always been vulnerable in terms of reinforcements and supply lines.

“Now, our adversaries have understandably chosen to exploit our current vulnerabilities while we are preoccupied with the situation in Ukraine,” he commented from prison.