The Palestinian Authority’s struggle against anti-occupation armed groups in Jenin is overshadowed by apprehensions regarding the potential stance of US President-elect Donald Trump, who may favor excluding the PA’s current leadership in a future Gaza Strip scenario, opting instead for the United Arab Emirates and its Palestinian allies.

These worries prompted the PA to escalate its military operations in Jenin, opting for a larger raid rather than the initially proposed smaller operation in the Tulkarm refugee camp, as reported by an Egyptian official, a former senior Israeli official, and a former senior US official to Middle East Eye this week.

The PA initiated its operation at the start of December. Since then, the conflict has resulted in the deaths of at least 16 Palestinians, including six members of the PA’s security forces and at least eight local residents, among them a father and son.

The PA’s fears of being marginalized in the post-war Gaza Strip arise amidst indications that Hamas and Israel may be nearing a ceasefire agreement in the ravaged territory.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken remarked earlier this week that “we’re very close” to reaching a deal. The US has expressed similar optimism in the past, only for negotiations to ultimately fall through.

The Palestinian Authority (PA) has played a pivotal role in the Biden administration’s strategy for post-war governance in the Gaza Strip following the outbreak of conflict triggered by the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. This involvement persists despite Israel’s refusal to acknowledge the PA’s role.

However, the impending return of Trump to the White House in less than two weeks introduces significant uncertainty regarding the PA’s future.

‘Angered by the Emiratis’

During his previous administration, Trump diminished diplomatic ties with the PA by closing the US consulate for Palestinians in Jerusalem and shutting down the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s office in Washington, D.C. The PLO, which is a coalition of Palestinian factions, is led by the PA.

The Biden administration has not reversed these actions taken during Trump’s presidency.

Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, held a strong disdain for the PA and sought to limit any US collaboration with the authority. This friction ultimately led to Trump cutting off aid to the PA.

In response to the signing of the Anti-Terrorism Clarification Act by Trump, which raised fears among Palestinians about potential lawsuits in the US, the PA requested a suspension of all US assistance. Nevertheless, some American funding continued to reach the PA’s security forces.

Middle East Eye reported on Monday that the Palestinian Authority (PA) has recently sought hundreds of millions of dollars in additional security assistance from the United States in light of the ongoing operation in Jenin.

A former senior US official indicated that the PA may encounter significant difficulties in securing such funding from a forthcoming Trump administration.

Regional officials suggest that the PA’s leadership faces an even more challenging situation with a second Trump administration, as the conflict in Gaza has created an opportunity for their primary Arab Gulf critic, the UAE, to advocate for a change in Palestinian leadership.

“Abu Mazen is deeply angered by the Emirati proposals. The operation in Jenin is the PA’s response,” an Egyptian official familiar with the situation told MEE, referring to the 89-year-old Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas by his Arabic name.

‘Suicide mission’

The UAE has publicly proposed sending peacekeepers to the Gaza Strip to take over from Israeli forces once the conflict concludes. This offer is contingent upon a reformed authority that would not maintain security control in the devastated area at the outset of the mission.

The complete details of the Emirati proposal were reported by Al-Araby Al Jadeed.

In addition to that plan, the Egyptian official said that the Palestinian Authority (PA) had reviewed multiple proposals for managing Gaza through private security firms. Israel has also explored various options for employing private Western security companies to ensure the safety of aid convoys in the Gaza Strip.

“The PA is on a self-destructive path in Jenin. It has completely undermined and discredited itself,” stated Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, in an interview with Middle East Eye.

“However, the PA fears that if a new administration takes over in Gaza that is not aligned with them, their funding will be redirected. Their greatest concern is that the political focus will shift from the West Bank to Gaza, leaving them without support.”

A former high-ranking Israeli military official shared that, contrary to Israeli media reports that lauded the operation in Jenin, the security establishment viewed it as a significant failure.

“My assessment is that they will lose support from the Palestinian populace,” the former official remarked.

Struggle for relevance

The PA was established following the Oslo peace accords in the early 1990s. Its leadership is derived from the PLO, which engaged in a prolonged violent conflict with Israel. In exchange for limited self-rule in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, the PLO acknowledged Israel’s right to exist and abandoned armed resistance.

Among Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, the PA is predominantly perceived as ineffective, corrupt, and a collaborator with Israel.

The Palestinian Authority (PA) is primarily influenced by the secular party Fatah. In 2007, conflict erupted between Fatah and the Islamist group Hamas, which had gained power in the previous year’s legislative elections. Ultimately, Hamas solidified its control over Gaza, while Fatah maintained its authority in the occupied West Bank. Attempts at reconciliation between the two factions have not succeeded.

According to an Egyptian official and a Fatah representative speaking to MEE, the PA’s desire to demonstrate its reliability as a security ally to the forthcoming Trump administration is fueled by a complex web of rivalry and political maneuvering.

Within the secular Palestinian elite, a division exists between President Abbas, who has led the West Bank without elections since 2006, and Mohammed Dahlan, Fatah’s former leader in Gaza.

Dahlan, currently residing in the UAE and serving as a representative for the ruling al-Nahyan family, was expelled from Fatah but still enjoys some backing in Gaza and the West Bank through the Fatah-Democratic Reform Bloc.

Reports from July indicated that the United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates were collaborating on a strategy to establish a national committee of Palestinian leaders to govern Gaza, potentially paving the way for Dahlan to succeed Abbas.