Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges as they contend with a Russian military that possesses superior numbers, firepower, and momentum across the frozen terrain and muddy trenches of eastern Ukraine.

Pokrovsk, a city that had a population of 60,000 before the war, stands as the most critical point where Ukraine‘s defenses are at risk of collapsing under the continuous Russian offensive. However, it is not the only location facing such threats.

Despite increasing calls for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow, the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin have demonstrated a lack of willingness to consider cease-fire proposals that might be acceptable to Ukraine and its Western allies.

Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, noted last month that “the war has shifted in favor of Russia, which is aggressively leveraging its advantages in arms and personnel.” He added that there is now minimal incentive for Russia to engage in negotiations, as Putin likely believes he can achieve victory, which he interprets as the complete subjugation of Ukraine under Russian authority.

An overview of the current situation on the battlefield as the New Year begins.

Pokrovsk

In more peaceful times, this city located on the western fringes of Donetsk Oblast was recognized for its coal mining, coke production, and metallurgical industries, as well as being a significant railway hub at the intersection of several major roads. It is also notable as the place where composer Mykola Leontovych created the Christmas carol known as Shchedryk in Ukrainian, which is widely recognized as the Carol of the Bells globally.

Following the capture of Avdiyivka to the east earlier this year, Russian forces have advanced west and northwest in an effort to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines. The E50 highway, which runs westward, connects Pokrovsk to Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city. Meanwhile, the T0504 highway, heading east and northeast, links Pokrovsk to Kostyantynivka, another key railway junction targeted by Russian forces.

According to a battlefield report from Frontelligence Insight, an analytical organization led by a former Ukrainian reserve officer, “The Pokrovsk direction remains one of the most intense and contested areas of the theater. After failing to capture the city directly, Russian forces have reverted to a familiar strategy: flanking maneuvers.”

Viktor Trehubov, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia command group, stated in a state-run TV broadcast on January 2, “The enemy is not focusing on engaging in Pokrovsk at this moment but is attempting to circumvent the city and disrupt the supply chains.”

Liam Collins, a retired colonel from the U.S. Army Special Forces, indicated that Russian troops may attempt to bypass Pokrovsk in their eagerness to capture additional territory before any potential peace negotiations occur. Pokrovsk is situated approximately 18 kilometers from the administrative boundary separating the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

Collins suggested that it is more probable they aim to evade intense urban combat, similar to the prolonged battle for Bakhmut.

“The Russians, like nearly any military force, would rather circumvent a city, sever the supply routes to the forces within, and wait for them to surrender without engaging in a significant confrontation,” stated Collins, who authored the book Understanding Urban Warfare.

Kurakhove

Located about 30 kilometers south of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces have sought to utilize the Kurakhove Reservoir, which regulates the Vovcha River, along with its associated waterways, to impede Russian progress. In late November and December, Russian forces made advances along the northern perimeter of the reservoir, and a dam at the western edge of the reservoir was partially damaged—though it remains uncertain whether this was caused by Ukrainian or Russian actions.

Ukrainian forces are losing their hold on the city of Kurakhove, located on the southern shores of the reservoir, as Russian units advance from the east. Currently, only the industrial areas in the western section of the city remain under Ukrainian control. Additionally, Russian troops are posing a threat to the H15 Donetsk–Zaporizhzhya highway from the southwest, which serves as a crucial supply route extending west from Kurakhove.

Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst based in Poland who frequently visits Ukraine, noted that the challenges Kyiv faces in replenishing its troop numbers are evident in the defense of Kurakhove.

“While the terrain in this area is conducive to defensive strategies due to the presence of waterways, the ongoing shortage of personnel in Ukraine hampers the effective use of these natural advantages to impede Russian progress,” he stated in a post on X. “This manpower deficit also restricts their capacity to conduct counterattacks that could potentially disrupt Russian advances.”

Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, a military analyst from Kyiv, expressed a grim outlook for Kurakhove’s defense. “The city’s defense is essentially doomed,” he remarked. “Currently, they are only sustaining it for political reasons.”

“The loss of the city would be a significant setback for the presidential office, severely impacting trust ratings,” he added.

Mokri Yaly Valley

To the west of Kurakhove, the Mokri Yaly River flows southward, intersected by several smaller bridges and bordered by a number of villages, including Velyka Novosilka.

Ukrainian forces launched their highly publicized counteroffensive in 2023, making advances southward in various locations, particularly in the Mokri Yaly Valley and south of Velyka Novosilka along the eastern bank of the river. However, similar to the overall counteroffensive, this advance struggled against the robust defensive positions established by Russian forces.

In early December, Russian troops made inroads into the eastern outskirts of the village. In response, Ukrainian forces executed a counteroffensive, successfully reclaiming the village of Noviy Komar, which is strategically located along the vital north-south O0509 road and serves as the next river crossing north of Velyka Novosilka.

Despite this reclaiming effort, the village remains a focal point of contention, as indicated by open-source intelligence and reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources. The O0509 road is currently under threat from Russian artillery and drone attacks, which hampers Ukraine’s resupply efforts.

Kursk

Ukrainian military leadership has previously received recognition for their innovative and adaptive strategies. Their successful defense of Kyiv against a larger Russian force in the early stages of the invasion surprised many, including officials in the Kremlin. Ukraine’s strategic ingenuity in the Black Sea has also significantly reduced Russia’s operational effectiveness in that region.

The August incursion into Russia’s Kursk region followed this trend but fell short of one critical objective: alleviating pressure on other fronts by diverting Russian troops.

In a surprising development, Russia has introduced thousands of North Korean soldiers to the conflict, a strategy that may help ease recruitment challenges within Russia itself.

U.S. officials reported last month that North Korea has experienced at least “several hundred casualties.” Despite this, North Korean forces have been instrumental in countering Ukrainian defenses in the town of Sudzha, located in the Kursk region near the border.

This situation poses a risk to Ukrainian supply lines originating from the south, across the border.

Overall, it is estimated that Ukrainian forces have lost more than half of the territory they initially captured during the summer.

This development could undermine another objective that Ukrainian officials had hoped to achieve through the invasion: leveraging occupied Russian territory as a negotiating tool in future discussions.