Saudi Arabia halts efforts to secure a U.S. defense treaty due to the ongoing impasse regarding Israel

Saudi Arabia has shifted away from its goal of establishing a comprehensive defense treaty with the United States in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel. Instead, it is now advocating for a more limited military cooperation agreement, according to two Saudi officials and four Western sources who spoke to Reuters.

Earlier this year, in an effort to finalize a broad mutual security treaty, Riyadh softened its stance on Palestinian statehood, indicating to Washington that a public commitment from Israel to a two-state solution might suffice for the Gulf nation to move forward with normalization.

However, in light of the intense public outrage in Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East regarding Israel’s military actions in Gaza, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has once again made the recognition of Israel contingent upon tangible steps toward establishing a Palestinian state, as reported by two Saudi and three Western sources.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains keen to achieve normalization with Saudi Arabia, viewing it as a historic achievement and a sign of greater acceptance within the Arab world, according to Western diplomats.

Nevertheless, he faces significant domestic opposition to any concessions to the Palestinians following the Hamas attacks on October 7, and he understands that any move toward statehood could jeopardize his ruling coalition.

With both leaders currently constrained by their domestic political landscapes, Riyadh and Washington are optimistic that a more modest defense agreement can be finalized before President Joe Biden’s term ends in January, the sources indicated.

A comprehensive treaty between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia would require approval from the U.S. Senate with a two-thirds majority, which is unlikely unless Riyadh acknowledges Israel, according to six sources.

The current negotiations focus on enhancing joint military exercises and drills to counter regional threats, particularly from Iran. This agreement would also encourage collaboration between U.S. and Saudi defense companies, incorporating measures to prevent any cooperation with China, the sources indicated.

Additionally, the pact aims to boost Saudi investments in advanced technologies, particularly in drone defense systems. The U.S. plans to increase its presence in Riyadh through training, logistics, and cybersecurity support, and may deploy a Patriot missile battalion to strengthen missile defense and integrated deterrence.

However, this arrangement will not constitute a binding mutual defense treaty that would require U.S. forces to protect Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, in the event of an attack from abroad. “Saudi Arabia will secure a security agreement that enhances military cooperation and facilitates U.S. arms sales, but it will not be a defense treaty akin to those with Japan or South Korea, as was initially desired,” stated Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Institute in Saudi Arabia.

THE TRUMP DILEMMA

The situation is further complicated by Donald Trump’s anticipated return to the White House. Although Trump’s approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict does not include provisions for Palestinian statehood or sovereignty, he maintains a close relationship with the Saudi crown prince.

Palestinian and some Arab officials express concern that Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who is closely aligned with the crown prince and the architect of the “Deal of the Century,” may ultimately influence him to endorse the plan. How the crown prince navigates Saudi interests amid this evolving diplomatic context will be crucial, shaping both his leadership and the future of the peace process, according to diplomats.

The current U.S. administration remains optimistic about securing a deal on security guarantees before President Biden’s term concludes in January, although several challenges persist. A source in Washington familiar with the negotiations expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of reaching an agreement within the available timeframe.

U.S. officials recognize that Saudi Arabia is keen to formalize the security guarantees it has been pursuing, particularly to enhance its access to advanced weaponry. However, there is uncertainty about whether the kingdom would prefer to finalize this under Biden’s administration or wait for a potential Trump presidency, according to the source.

“We are actively engaged in discussions and have multiple initiatives underway with the Saudis,” stated the U.S. official.

The White House National Security Council refrained from commenting on the ongoing efforts to establish a deal concerning U.S. security guarantees for Saudi Arabia. Similarly, Netanyahu’s office did not provide any remarks regarding Saudi Arabia’s stance on Palestinian statehood.

A defense treaty that would offer Saudi Arabia U.S. military protection in exchange for recognizing Israel could significantly alter the dynamics of the Middle East by aligning two historical adversaries and strengthening Riyadh’s ties with Washington, especially as China expands its influence in the region. This agreement would enhance Saudi Arabia’s security and help mitigate threats from Iran and its Houthi allies, aiming to prevent incidents similar to the 2019 attacks on its oil facilities, which both Riyadh and Washington attributed to Tehran, a claim Iran has denied.

A senior Saudi official indicated that the treaty is nearly finalized, at 95% completion, but Riyadh has chosen to explore an alternative agreement, as the treaty cannot be realized without normalization with Israel. Depending on its structure, a more limited cooperation agreement could potentially be approved without Congressional approval before Biden’s term ends, according to two sources.

Negotiations aimed at establishing a mutual defense treaty faced several obstacles. One significant issue was the lack of advancement in discussions regarding civil nuclear cooperation, as Saudi Arabia declined to enter into a 123 Agreement with the United States, which would have restricted Riyadh’s ability to pursue nuclear enrichment, according to six sources. Additionally, Saudi concerns regarding human rights provisions emerged as another point of contention, as reported by a source close to the negotiations.

SETBACK FOR TWO-STATE SOLUTION

Despite the Saudi leadership’s strong support for Palestinian statehood, there is uncertainty among diplomats about how the crown prince would react if Trump were to revive the proposal he introduced in 2020 to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This plan represents a significant departure from U.S. policy and international agreements by explicitly favoring Israel and diverging from the long-established land-for-peace principle that has traditionally underpinned negotiations.

It would permit Israel to annex extensive areas of the occupied West Bank, including Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley, while designating Jerusalem as the “undivided capital of Israel,” effectively undermining Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem as their capital—a key element of their aspirations for statehood and in line with U.N. resolutions. Many view the Trump plan as a substantial setback for the two-state solution and for Palestinian aspirations for statehood.

Saudi officials emphasize that establishing a Palestinian state, in line with prior international agreements and with East Jerusalem as its capital, is crucial for achieving lasting peace and stability in the region. They argue that without this, the ongoing cycle of violence will continue to hinder any prospects for normal relations. A senior Saudi official remarked, “How can we envision a unified region if we ignore the Palestinian issue? The right to self-determination for Palestinians cannot be overlooked.”

In a strong condemnation of Israel’s actions since the onset of the Gaza conflict, Crown Prince Mohammed referred to Israel’s military operations in Gaza as “collective genocide” during his speech at an Arab and Islamic summit in Riyadh earlier this month.

However, the possibility of Saudi normalization with Israel may be reconsidered in the future, particularly after the situation in Gaza stabilizes and potentially under a different Israeli administration, according to diplomatic sources.

Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East scholar at the London School of Economics, noted that Trump would explore all avenues to achieve historic normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. “For Trump, Saudi Arabia represents a significant opportunity,” Gerges stated. He added that despite the consistent stance of Saudi leaders that they will not recognize Israel until a viable path to a Palestinian state is established, Trump might offer a ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for normalization and a tentative commitment to support a Palestinian state, without requiring Israel to make substantial concessions to the Palestinians.