Recent satellite imagery suggests that Saudi Arabia may be discreetly enhancing and expanding its long-range missile capabilities.

Fabian Hinz, a defense and military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), examined these images in a report released on Thursday.

The kingdom first developed long-range surface-to-surface missiles during the 1980s, primarily in response to the Iran-Iraq war and the increasing missile proliferation in the region.

Information regarding the evolution of its missile program has been limited, as Saudi Arabia seldom showcases its long-range weaponry publicly.

The IISS report indicates the apparent construction of an underground missile facility near al-Nabhaniyah in central Saudi Arabia. This construction commenced in 2019 and was largely completed by early 2024.

According to the report, this site represents the first of its kind established since the 1980s.

Hinz noted several indicators that suggest the site is indeed a missile base, including an administrative building that mirrors those found at other Saudi missile facilities, a similar spatial arrangement between the underground complex and surrounding residential and administrative zones, and a tunnel entrance akin to that of an existing base.

Records from contractors also confirm that the al-Nabhaniyah project is under the auspices of the defense ministry.

Additionally, the report highlights recent developments at the existing Saudi missile base in Wadi al-Dawasir, where a new large building has been constructed, potentially serving as an operational or support facility within the complex.

The IISS has observed indications of modernization and expansion at a missile base headquarters in Riyadh, along with the construction of new tunnels or underground facilities at bases in al-Hariq, Raniyah, and al-Sulayyil.

Saudi Arabia’s long-range missile capabilities remain largely classified.

In 2014, the kingdom conducted a significant military exercise that featured its Chinese-manufactured Dongfeng-3 ballistic missiles, marking their public debut.

According to a CNN report from December 2021, Saudi Arabia was in the process of producing its own ballistic missiles with support from China, based on US intelligence evaluations.

In May 2022, The Intercept reported, referencing a US intelligence source, that Riyadh intended to acquire Chinese ballistic missiles through a program referred to as “Crocodile.”

As part of its Vision 2030 initiative aimed at economic diversification and reducing oil dependency, Saudi Arabia is working to enhance its domestic defense manufacturing sector.

Hinz noted, “The noticeable lack of ballistic missile deployment in Saudi Arabia’s operations against Ansarullah (the Houthis) suggests that these systems may function more as a strategic deterrent rather than as a combat capability.”

He added, “Their true purpose may only become evident during a crisis.”