As the conflict in Ukraine approaches its fourth year, former US President Donald Trump has indicated that he believes Xi Jinping, an ally of Vladimir Putin, could play a pivotal role in helping the United States bring the war to a close.
“Hopefully, China can assist us in halting the war, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine … they possess significant influence over that situation, and we are willing to collaborate with them,” Trump stated to a gathering of political and business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month.
This sentiment, which Trump has reiterated, was also conveyed during a conversation with the Chinese leader shortly before his recent inauguration. It is a topic likely to resurface as global officials convene in Munich for the annual security conference in the coming days.
Although Trump may have complicated his strategy for achieving peace with Xi by implementing a blanket 10% tariff on Chinese imports earlier this month, the situation in Ukraine could present a unique opportunity for cooperation, particularly as Beijing seeks to mitigate escalating trade tensions.
“Considering the importance of US-China relations, if Trump views China’s cooperation as a crucial factor for improving ties, it is likely that China will be inclined to assist … and could potentially play a constructive role,” remarked Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. However, she cautioned that Beijing would remain cautious about jeopardizing its relationship with Russia.
China has consistently aimed to establish itself as a potential mediator in the ongoing conflict, advocating for its own vaguely articulated proposal for resolution. However, in Western circles, this initiative has been largely eclipsed by a more significant reality: China’s steadfast support for Russia under Putin.
For Xi, jeopardizing this partnership would carry substantial risks, as he has cultivated it as a vital component of his broader strategy to counter Western influence and reshape global dynamics in favor of China.
At a negotiating table where Xi holds a significant position, it is Putin, rather than Trump, who stands as a reliable ally—a situation that Washington must navigate with caution to avoid alienating European partners or arriving at a solution that Ukraine finds unacceptable, according to analysts.
Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, noted, “The outcome that Beijing wishes to prevent is a significantly weakened Russia, as this would leave China without a key ally.”
A notable shift in Washington’s stance
Looking ahead, the future of the conflict is anticipated to be a central topic at the forthcoming Munich Security Conference, commencing Friday in Germany. US Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, while Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will lead a delegation from Beijing.
A notable shift in Washington’s stance on the war looms over the conference. Trump has raised concerns about American support for Ukraine, which his predecessor Joe Biden and US NATO allies view as essential for upholding Ukraine’s sovereignty and the established rules-based international order.
In a recent Fox News interview, Donald Trump, known for his transactional approach, proposed that the United States should gain access to Ukraine’s abundant natural resources in return for military support. He also remarked that Ukraine “might become Russian one day” and claimed that his administration has made “significant strides” in establishing a foundation for possible peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, although he did not elaborate on the specifics.
During a series of meetings in Europe this week, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Trump’s envoy to Ukraine and Russia, General Keith Kellogg, are expected to encourage their European and NATO allies to enhance their support for Ukraine, according to defense officials and sources familiar with the discussions.
Additionally, members of the Trump administration are scheduled to engage with Ukrainian officials in the upcoming days. Sources indicate that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is likely to visit Kyiv to discuss the country’s vital mineral resources, while Kellogg is also anticipated to travel to Ukraine following meetings in Munich.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has expressed his willingness to negotiate with Putin, contingent upon continued support from the U.S. and Europe, including “security guarantees.” Meanwhile, Russia has reiterated that it would only accept a peace agreement if Ukraine abandons its aspirations to join NATO and relinquishes territories annexed by Russia.
While Trump advocates for a rapid conclusion to the conflict, his administration has not yet provided detailed proposals regarding the peace terms they envision.
The extent to which Trump may collaborate with Xi, and whether Xi is receptive to such cooperation, could largely hinge on these specific conditions, according to analysts. Historically, Western leaders have attempted, without success, to persuade Xi to influence Putin towards a peace agreement aligned with the proposals put forth by Zelensky and Ukraine.
Despite China’s assertion of neutrality and calls for peace, it has become a crucial diplomatic and economic supporter of Russia during the conflict, supplying dual-use goods that NATO leaders claim bolster Russia’s defense capabilities and military efforts. Beijing justifies its trade with Russia as part of standard bilateral relations.
From Trump’s perspective, this situation may grant Xi significant influence over Putin. However, experts on China’s foreign policy suggest the dynamics are more complex.
“Can China threaten to cut off the supply of essential goods to Russia? It cannot, because a completely failed Russia is not in China’s interest,” stated Liu Dongshu, an assistant professor specializing in Chinese politics at the City University of Hong Kong. He emphasized that Beijing recognizes its relations with the US and Europe have deteriorated to a point where it has little choice but to continue supporting its most powerful diplomatic ally.
Xi and Putin notably announced their “no limits” partnership just weeks prior to the incursion of Russian tanks into Ukraine, a commitment rooted in their mutual opposition to NATO and a belief that the US-led West is in decline while they are gaining strength.
Observers suggest that Xi views Putin as a potential ally for economic and diplomatic backing should Beijing decide to take military action against Taiwan. This ambition to assert control over the self-governing democracy may also explain Xi’s caution regarding any actions that could jeopardize their alliance.
Additionally, the Chinese leader might be benefiting from the ongoing conflict as it diverts US attention away from Asia and Taiwan, a point highlighted by members of the Trump administration, including Vice President Vance.
During his tenure as a US senator, Vance argued that providing Ukraine with air defense systems could compromise the US’s capacity to support Taiwan’s defense in the event of a Chinese attack on the island, which China claims as its territory.
Xi as a Peacemaker?
Collaborating with Trump to bring Putin to the negotiating table—regardless of the deal’s specifics—would represent a significant change in Beijing’s strategy regarding the ongoing conflict.
Xi and his administration have leveraged the war to advocate for a vision of a world led by China, one in which the American alliance framework is either dismantled or significantly weakened.
“China aims to forge a coalition of non-Western nations, including key developing countries like Brazil, to utilize the Ukraine crisis as a means to reshape the global security landscape and promote an alternative world order,” stated Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the United States.
Currently, Beijing has little motivation to pursue meaningful collaboration with Washington, according to Zhao, who mentioned that Chinese officials are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding any potential benefits from broader negotiations with Trump.
Nevertheless, the current U.S. president—a critic of NATO who has expressed admiration for both Putin and Xi—might be a more attractive negotiating partner for these two leaders.
Before assuming office, Trump advocated for an “immediate ceasefire and negotiations,” a stance that aligns with Beijing’s publicly stated position on the conflict, which has faced criticism from the West for being advantageous to Russia. Recently, he has echoed sentiments from Moscow and Beijing, expressing sympathy for the Kremlin’s perspective that Ukraine should not join NATO and suggesting that the war persists due to America’s military support for Ukraine.
US lawmakers and certain officials within Trump’s administration maintain a firm stance towards both nations. However, Trump’s position prompts an inquiry into the possibility of a tripartite agreement among Beijing, Moscow, and Washington that could satisfy all parties involved, and the implications this might have for Ukraine and the ongoing conflict.
Robert Ward, director of geo-economics and strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the UK, noted, “Each party could derive benefits from specific peace agreements—Putin could preserve his dignity, while Xi and Trump could portray themselves as advocates for peace.”
Nonetheless, he cautioned that any arrangement allowing Russia to retain control over the territories it currently occupies in Ukraine risks resulting in a situation that is not truly resolved, but rather a temporary pause in hostilities.
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