If his initial term in the White House serves as a guide, President-elect Donald Trump is expected to prioritize the Middle East in his upcoming agenda.

During his first four years, Trump made notable strides by choosing Saudi Arabia as the destination for his inaugural foreign visit, attempting to negotiate a “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians, enhancing the regional integration of Israel, and significantly ramping up pressure on Iran.

However, the Middle East landscape has evolved considerably since he left office in 2021, and all regional stakeholders are closely observing how the new president will respond to these changes.

“Your historic return to the White House signifies a fresh start for America and a strong reaffirmation of the vital alliance between Israel and the United States. This is a tremendous victory!” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked on X on Wednesday.

Gulf Arab nations also expressed their support for the president-elect’s success. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman extended their congratulations to Trump, while the United Arab Emirates stated: “the UAE and US are united by our enduring partnership based on shared ambitions for progress.”

In contrast, Iran downplayed the election’s implications, asserting that there is “no significant difference” in the identity of the US president, according to state media. Fatemeh Mohajerani, a spokesperson for the Iranian government, was quoted as saying that the “general policies of the US and Iran remain unchanged” following Wednesday’s election results.

Trump’s election might influence key players in the Middle East

Israel and the Palestinians

Analysts suggest that addressing the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as fostering Israel’s integration into the Middle East, will likely be key priorities for the president-elect’s agenda.

Mustafa Barghouti, leader of the Palestinian National Initiative, noted that Netanyahu will encounter a president who is more assertive than previous administrations, stating, “I don’t believe Trump will accept the ongoing wars in their current form.” He also remarked that for Palestinians, the change in leadership may not significantly alter the situation, as both administrations have shown a strong bias in favor of Israel.

According to Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, Trump is keen to avoid having these conflicts as pressing issues when he takes office on January 20.

“He will likely urge a swift resolution; he doesn’t want this on his agenda,” Pinkas explained, suggesting that Trump may encourage the Israeli prime minister to declare a victory and subsequently negotiate a settlement through intermediaries.

Throughout his campaign, Trump has not clarified his approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict should he be reelected, nor has he indicated how his policies would differ from those of his predecessor, Joe Biden. In April, Trump remarked that Israel should “finish what they started” and “get it over with fast,” expressing concern that it was “losing the PR war” due to the images emerging from Gaza.

According to Pinkas, Trump “couldn’t care less about the Palestinian issue.” During his first term, he refrained from endorsing the United States’ long-standing support for an independent Palestinian state, stating that he preferred a solution “that both parties like.”

Barghouti expressed concern that Trump might permit Israel to annex portions of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which would effectively signal “the end of the two-state solution.”

During his initial term, Trump implemented several policies that favored Israel. In 2017, he officially recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, a move that disrupted long-standing U.S. policy and international agreement. He also acknowledged Israel’s claim to the Golan Heights, territory it seized from Syria during the 1967 conflict.

Despite Trump’s assertions of being the most pro-Israel president in recent history and his claims of a close personal rapport with Netanyahu, their relationship has not always been amicable.

In 2021, after both had left office, Trump accused Netanyahu of disloyalty when the Israeli Prime Minister extended congratulations to Biden following his 2020 election victory.

Following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 last year, Trump criticized both Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence for their lack of preparedness, asserting that such an attack would not have happened under his presidency.

Boaz Bismuth, a member of Israel’s Knesset representing Netanyahu’s Likud party, stated to CNN that Trump’s election arrives at an opportune moment, offering a chance to further the Abraham Accords as conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon are nearing resolution.

He noted that these accords, established during Trump’s first term and resulting in Israel normalizing relations with four Arab nations, have sidelined the aspirations for an independent Palestinian state.

Bismuth emphasized, “Once the conflict concludes, a significant reset in the Middle East will be necessary,” asserting that Trump is ideally positioned to facilitate a “new Middle East.”

Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist with close ties to Netanyahu, remarked that Trump’s election conveys a strong message to Israel’s adversaries in Iran.

Domestically, the Israeli prime minister may feel more empowered, especially following his recent dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant amid ongoing disputes regarding domestic issues and Israel’s military strategies.

Shtrauchler suggested that Netanyahu might reassess his strategies, noting that Trump’s unpredictability could lead to increased pressure on Israel to conclude the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, potentially shifting focus towards addressing the Iranian threat.

Iran faces a significant challenge in the coming four years, potentially the most critical since its establishment in 1979. Experts suggest that under Trump’s renewed scrutiny, a return to the “maximum pressure” campaign he previously implemented could lead to increased isolation and economic hardship for Tehran.

Despite Trump’s self-proclaimed expertise as a dealmaker, he struggled to limit Iran’s influence in the Middle East. His withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, coupled with the reimposition of sanctions and the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the military leader overseeing Iran’s regional proxies, did not yield the desired results.

Iran

Since Trump’s departure from office in 2020, Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment, boosted oil exports, intensified support for militant groups in the region, and set a concerning precedent by directly attacking Israel on two occasions.

As Israel continues to undermine Iran’s regional capabilities through strikes on its proxies, Iran is increasingly losing its deterrent power amid economic difficulties and widespread domestic unrest.

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project and senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, noted that the Islamic Republic appears vulnerable, facing formidable threats while 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei struggles to manage multiple crises simultaneously.

With the Middle East on the verge of a broader conflict and Iran threatening retaliation for recent Israeli attacks, there are fears that Trump’s potential election could embolden Netanyahu to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, a move the Biden administration has cautioned against.

There is a possibility that Trump may urge Netanyahu to take decisive action before he officially assumes office, which could lead to a significant increase in tensions during November and December. This scenario suggests that Israel might seek to capitalize on its position to undermine Iran and its network of militant groups prior to Trump’s inauguration, after which he could claim credit for fostering peace, according to Vaez.

However, this dynamic could shift if the Biden administration opts to restrict Israel’s capacity to escalate tensions in its remaining months in power. The U.S. has already initiated this process by sending a letter to Israel last month, warning of consequences if the humanitarian situation in Gaza does not improve.

A crucial element in Iran’s relationship with the incoming U.S. president will be Trump’s reaction to recent intelligence reports indicating that Tehran allegedly plotted to assassinate him—claims that Iran has labeled as “unsubstantiated and malicious.”

Vaez emphasized the need to differentiate between Trump as an individual and the Trump administration as a whole.

“Trump may be drawn to the challenge of outmaneuvering the Iranians in negotiations, viewing it as a definitive test of his skills in deal-making,” he stated, noting that during his first term, he was intrigued by the idea of negotiating with Iran.

In a tweet from 2020, Trump remarked, “Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!”

Vaez pointed out that a resurgence of Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy could coincide with a policy of “maximum support” for the Iranian populace, potentially aiming for regime change. He argued that this approach would likely hinder any prospects for the two nations to engage in negotiations.

“I doubt that anyone on (Trump’s) national security team would prioritize achieving a mutually beneficial agreement with the Iranian regime,” he concluded.

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states

Gulf Arab states have maintained their engagement with Trump following his departure from office, anticipating a potential return. Analysts suggest that this strategy may yield positive outcomes for them.

During Trump’s initial term, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States thrived. Notably, he made Riyadh his first foreign destination as president in 2017 and supported Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during the international backlash over the assassination of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi operatives in 2018, a period when the Saudi heir faced significant global condemnation.

Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, noted, “Gulf states highly value the opportunity to collaborate with a leader who shares their views and to foster relationships through personal interactions. This approach mirrors their dealings with other nations.”

Throughout Trump’s first term, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were involved in conflicts in Yemen, and their relations with Iran reached a historic low.

However, Gulf states have notably adjusted their foreign policies since then, choosing to reduce military engagements and seek rapprochement with former adversaries like Iran, while also diversifying their alliances in a world that is becoming increasingly multipolar, amid growing doubts regarding the US’s role in the Middle East.

Alhasan noted that there is a possibility of Trump returning to a maximum pressure approach regarding Iran, especially considering the improved relations between Iran and the Gulf states, which may lead to increased pressure from the US for compliance with this strategy.

Emerging middle powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE may encounter difficulties in navigating their strengthened ties with China under a Trump administration. In recent years, these oil-rich nations have bolstered their trade and technological partnerships with China, despite the ongoing rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been invited to join the BRICS coalition of developing countries, and Saudi Arabia has achieved dialogue partner status within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a security and economic alliance led by China.

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have incorporated Chinese technology into critical infrastructure projects, and although they have committed to limiting China’s influence in their burgeoning artificial intelligence sectors, they have increasingly depended on Chinese expertise.

Alhasan expressed concern about whether the Trump administration will apply more pressure on Gulf states to reduce their ties with China in specific sectors. He also highlighted the potential for intensified tariff and trade conflicts under Trump, which could adversely affect Gulf exports.

Trump aims to enhance Israel’s integration within the Middle East but may encounter obstacles due to Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to normalize relations with Israel without a clear path to Palestinian statehood, which Israel has not provided.

Qatar, one of the first countries to congratulate Trump, has become crucial to US efforts in achieving a ceasefire in Gaza due to its connections with Hamas. However, these ties could become a liability under a Trump administration, according to Alhasan.

He remarked that there is likely concern regarding what a potential second term for Trump might entail.