Turkish S-400 deployment in Syria poses a major threat to Israeli aircraft, escalating regional security tensions

Russian analysts have characterized Turkey’s upcoming deployment of the Russian-manufactured S-400 Triumf long-range air defense system in Syria as a strategic “trap” aimed at addressing the increasing Israeli airstrikes on targets within the country. The goal of establishing an air defense “umbrella” that integrates Turkey‘s short, medium, and long-range systems is to provide comprehensive protection for Syrian territory against aerial threats, particularly from Israeli fighter jets.

Igor Subbotin, a Russian defense analyst writing for the reputable news outlet Nezavizimaya Gazeta, disclosed that Turkey is set to move the S-400 battery to a key airbase in Syria’s contested Homs region.

The airbase in question, believed to be either T-4 or Tiyas Airbase, has historically served as the largest operational airbase for the Assad regime’s air force, making it of significant strategic importance. Located north of Tiyas and just west of the ancient city of Palmyra, T-4 Airbase has also been a site for Soviet-era Russian fighter aircraft deployments during the 1970s and 1980s.

In recent years, Iranian forces have frequently used T-4 Airbase to conduct operations against ISIS, highlighting its ongoing strategic relevance in the regional security landscape.

International sources indicate that Turkey plans to develop T-4 into a robust layered air defense center, specifically aimed at strengthening the defense capabilities of Syria’s new administration against persistent Israeli incursions.

At the heart of this defense strategy lies the advanced S-400 Triumf system, which features a range of sophisticated integrated components, including the 91N6E “Big Bird” radar. This radar is capable of detecting airborne targets at distances of up to 600 km.

The system’s targeting accuracy is significantly improved by the 92N6E “Grave Stone” fire-control radar, designed specifically to lock onto and accurately direct interceptor missiles toward identified threats.

Enhancing the multi-layered detection framework, the 96L6E “Cheese Board” radar provides dependable mid-range tracking capabilities, covering an area of about 300 km, which greatly boosts operational precision.

The S-400’s missile inventory includes mobile transporter erector launchers (TEL) equipped with various ready-to-launch missiles, all managed through the fully automated 55K6E command and control center.

Among the missile types utilized are the formidable 40N6 (with a range of 400 km), the 48N6 (250 km), and the adaptable 9M96 (40–120 km), enabling the S-400 to effectively engage multiple aerial threats simultaneously, regardless of weather conditions.

Developed by the esteemed Russian defense company Almaz-Antey, which also created the earlier S-300 and the more recent S-500 Prometey systems, the S-400 Triumf exemplifies state-of-the-art aerospace and air defense technology.

Turkey’s strategic choice to acquire the S-400 system from Russia in December 2017, through a substantial US$2.5 billion (RM11 billion) agreement, represented a significant shift in Ankara’s defense and diplomatic stance. This decision followed unsuccessful efforts to obtain the US-made Patriot missile defense system, highlighting Turkey’s urgent need to enhance its air defense capabilities amid the ongoing Syrian conflict and strained relations with Russia.

The move escalated diplomatic tensions with the United States and NATO, both of which view the integration of Russian air defense technology as incompatible and potentially detrimental to NATO’s operational security. In retaliation, Washington removed Turkey from the advanced F-35 stealth fighter program in July 2019 and imposed economic sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) in December 2020.

CAATSA, which was enacted by the US Congress in 2017, specifically targets countries that engage with the defense sectors of Russia, Iran, and North Korea, aiming to economically isolate Moscow while inadvertently straining relations with key NATO allies like Turkey. Despite facing significant international pressure, Turkey continued with the acquisition, receiving its first S-400 battery delivery in July 2019, thereby reaffirming its commitment to strategic autonomy and a diversified defense policy.

Turkey is concurrently working to enhance its air defense strategy by introducing domestically manufactured HISAR air defense systems, which may include the medium-range HISAR-O or the short-range HISAR-A variants. This initiative aims to strengthen the T-4 Airbase and assert control over the regional airspace.

The HISAR system has been in development since 2011 through a partnership between prominent Turkish defense firms ROKETSAN and ASELSAN, reaching a notable achievement with the successful test of the HISAR-O missile in 2014.

Specifically designed as part of a comprehensive defense architecture that includes HISAR-A (short-range), HISAR-O (medium-range), and HISAR-U (long-range), the HISAR-O features advanced missiles, mobile launch platforms built on Mercedes-Benz 6×6 trucks, and cutting-edge fire control systems, radar, and electro-optical sensors.

The ASELSAN KALKAN phased-array 3D radar integrated into the HISAR-O system provides outstanding tracking capabilities, allowing it to monitor up to 60 targets simultaneously at distances of up to 60 km. It effectively neutralizes aerial threats within a 25 km engagement range and at altitudes of up to 10 km.

Nevertheless, Turkey’s strategic goals faced significant setbacks due to preemptive airstrikes by Israel on the T-4 Airbase, which inflicted considerable damage on critical infrastructure, including runways, control towers, hangars, and assets of the Syrian Air Force. An intelligence official noted, “It was a clear message that Israel would not tolerate an expanding Turkish presence,” while analyzing the extent of the destruction captured in reconnaissance images.

Syrian sources associated with Ankara have informed Reuters that the T-4 Airbase is now entirely incapacitated due to Israeli airstrikes, marking a significant rise in tensions between Turkey and Israel. In response, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry promptly denounced the Israeli actions, labeling Israel as “the greatest threat to regional security.”

Both nations are currently engaged in diplomatic discussions aimed at alleviating military tensions in Syria, with the goal of reducing the risk of conflict between these two important U.S. allies, whose relationship has deteriorated since the onset of the Gaza war in 2023.

On Wednesday, officials from Turkey and Israel convened in Azerbaijan to create frameworks designed to avert confrontations between their military forces operating in Syria, as confirmed by official statements from both governments. The Israeli delegation was headed by Tzachi Hanegbi, Director of the National Security Council, as noted in a release from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.

Since the downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad late last year, Israel and Turkey have been pursuing conflicting strategic objectives within Syria.

The Syrian Foreign Ministry has announced that Israeli fighter jets conducted airstrikes on a Syrian airbase, which Turkey is reportedly aiming to use to enhance its regional power.

Israel is increasingly worried that the new Islamist leadership in Syria may elevate security risks along its borders, prompting the establishment of a buffer zone within Syrian territory. At the same time, Turkey’s rising influence as a key player in Syria has intensified Israeli concerns about a larger Turkish military presence.

On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked that the creation of Turkish military bases in Syria would represent a “threat to Israel.”