Ukraine expects a major rise in uncrewed ground vehicles and AI-targeted drones next year

Ukraine is projected to require tens of thousands of uncrewed robotic ground vehicles in the coming year to transport ammunition and supplies to infantry in the trenches and to evacuate injured soldiers, according to a senior government official speaking to Reuters.

These buggy-like vehicles exemplify the technological advancements reshaping trench warfare in Ukraine, allowing troops to avoid operating in high-risk areas near the front lines, where Russian artillery and drones are prevalent, stated Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

“This year, we acquired several thousand ground platforms, and for next year, I believe we will need tens of thousands,” the minister, who has been responsible for drone procurement throughout much of the conflict, mentioned in an interview.

He noted that these vehicles are already deployed along the front lines and in Russia‘s Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces established an enclave during an incursion in August. Ukraine has also set up multiple training centers to instruct personnel in their operation.

The evolution of military technology has progressed rapidly, even as the conflict remains a brutal, attritional struggle with no significant changes on the battlefield, despite Russia’s recent advances 33 months after the invasion in 2022.

Fedorov, who is primarily focused on digital affairs, has been instrumental in fostering the development of military technology through a government-supported initiative aimed at encouraging private-sector innovation. As of this month, he no longer manages drone procurement.

Ukraine has placed significant emphasis on boosting production and enhancing the capabilities of long-range attack drones to execute deep strikes against Russia, thereby reducing the disparity in military capabilities with its opponent.

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The production of long-range drones in Ukraine has surged dramatically since 2023, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy aiming for an output of 30,000 of these deep-strike weapons in the upcoming year, Fedorov indicated.

Russia has been deploying thousands of long-range drones each month, heavily relying on low-cost “decoy” drones that exhaust Ukraine’s air defense systems, which are compelled to engage with any detected targets. Fedorov noted that Ukraine is also utilizing decoy drones and, on some nights, may launch more attack drones than Russia; however, the situation is not solely determined by numbers.

“AI is utilized to a certain degree, but the more pressing challenges involve connectivity and the methods for launching deep strike drones,” he stated. He added that Russia has enhanced its surveillance of Ukraine’s drone launches, enabling rapid responses and precise targeting of launch sites. These complexities necessitate ongoing adjustments in launch techniques and connectivity.

According to him, Ukraine possesses attack drones capable of flying distances up to 1,800 km (1,120 miles). He also confirmed that Ukraine is developing drones designed to intercept the Shahed-type long-range attack drones employed by Russia in its nightly assaults on Ukrainian cities.

“There is ongoing testing by various companies producing aircraft that, equipped with specialized software and radar systems, can engage Shaheds, but this remains in the research and development stage. Some progress has been made,” he remarked.

Fedorov mentioned that Ukraine has contracted to acquire 1.6 million drones this year, with 1.3 million already delivered, including low-cost “first person view” (FPV) drones that feature cameras for remote piloting towards targets. Additionally, Ukraine has been employing numerous domestically produced systems enhanced with artificial intelligence, enabling drones to autonomously reach battlefield targets without direct piloting, thus maintaining effectiveness in areas with significant jamming.

He indicated that ten companies are actively competing in state procurements to provide AI solutions. “I anticipate that next year will see a notable increase in the proportion of autonomous drones with targeting capabilities,” he said. “We may witness the initial implementations of drone swarms, albeit not on a large scale. The first steps will be taken.”