Israel has vowed to retaliate following Iran‘s missile attack on Tuesday, which involved over 180 ballistic missiles and was largely intercepted by Israel’s air defense systems. Here are some potential responses Israel, with U.S. support, might consider.

TARGET IRAN’S MILITARY BASES

Analysts suggest that Israel is likely to respond by striking Iranian military bases, particularly those involved in the production of ballistic missiles similar to those used in the recent assault. Additionally, Israel may target Iranian air defense systems and missile launch sites.

The U.S. has accused Iran of providing short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, a claim both nations deny. Experts believe that targeting military installations would be viewed as a proportional response to Iran’s aggression.

STRIKE IRAN’S NUCLEAR SITES

Attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities could hinder Tehran’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons. Iran’s nuclear program is dispersed across various sites, with some located underground.

However, a significant strike on its nuclear infrastructure could lead to severe repercussions, potentially prompting Iran to accelerate its nuclear weapons development. The U.S. has indicated it would not endorse such actions by Israel. Richard Hooker, a former U.S. Army officer and member of the National Security Council, noted that while an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites is a “distinct possibility,” it is not a certainty, as it could provoke a dramatic response from Iranian leadership.

Iran maintains that it has never pursued a nuclear weapons program. The IAEA and U.S. intelligence have determined that Iran had a coordinated nuclear weapons program until 2003, and experts warn that with the collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement, Iran could produce sufficient weapons-grade uranium for a bomb within weeks.

ATTACK IRAN’S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE

Israel may consider targeting Iran’s oil production infrastructure, which would significantly impact its economy. Such an action could lead Iran to retaliate by attacking oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, potentially causing a spike in fuel prices. This increase could become a critical issue in the upcoming U.S. elections on November 5, as fuel prices are a significant concern for voters.

David Des Roches, a former Department of Defense official now affiliated with the U.S. National Defense University’s Near East-South Asia Center, expressed skepticism that rising global oil prices would deter Israeli actions. He noted that Israel might perceive higher oil prices as advantageous for former President Donald Trump’s re-election efforts, especially given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent alignment with Trump’s Republican Party over the Democrats.

ECONOMIC, CYBER OPTIONS

While a military response is deemed the most probable course of action, alternative strategies exist that do not involve direct military engagement. President Joe Biden has indicated plans to impose additional sanctions on Iran, building on existing measures that already restrict nearly all U.S. trade with the country, freeze its government assets in the U.S., and limit foreign assistance and arms sales.

Analysts suggest that Israel could also leverage its cyber capabilities in response to Iranian provocations. The recent cyber operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon highlighted the capabilities of Unit 8200, the Israel Defense Forces’ elite cyber warfare and intelligence unit, which Western security sources indicate played a role in orchestrating the attack.