Assad’s downfall in Syria reveals the constraints of China’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East

Just over a year ago, China extended a warm reception to Bashar al-Assad and his wife during their six-day visit, providing the former Syrian leader with a rare respite from years of international isolation that began with the civil war in 2011. While attending the Asian Games, President Xi Jinping pledged support for Assad in “opposing external interference” and in the reconstruction of Syria, while Asma received significant attention from Chinese media.

However, the sudden downfall of the authoritarian leader, who had received explicit backing from Xi just a year prior, has undermined China’s diplomatic aspirations in the Middle East and highlighted the limitations of its regional strategy, according to analysts. A coalition of rebels captured Syria’s capital, Damascus, on Sunday in a swift offensive that dismantled Assad’s regime and concluded his family’s 50-year rule.

“There has been an inflated perception of China’s capacity to influence political developments in the region,” remarked Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

While the collapse of the Assad regime is expected to diminish the influence of his primary supporters, Iran and Russia, it also represents a setback for China’s global ambitions, Fulton noted. “Much of what China has pursued internationally has depended on alliances with these countries, and their failure to sustain their key partner in the Middle East speaks volumes about their capacity to exert influence beyond the region.”

Following China’s facilitation of a historic agreement between longstanding adversaries Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, Chinese media lauded Beijing’s increasing influence in a region traditionally under U.S. sway. Wang Yi, the chief diplomat of China, asserted that the nation aims to take a proactive role in addressing global “conflict zones.”

Earlier this year, China also mediated a ceasefire among Fatah, Hamas, and other competing Palestinian factions, while consistently advocating for a ceasefire in Gaza.

However, despite efforts to convene Middle Eastern leaders in Beijing and extensive “shuttle diplomacy” conducted by its envoy Zhai Jun, the Palestinian factions have yet to establish a unity government, and the situation in Gaza remains unresolved.

Fan Hongda, a Middle East expert at Shanghai International Studies University, remarked, “Beijing does not desire a sudden collapse of Assad’s regime. China favors a more stable and autonomous Middle East, as instability or a pro-American stance in the region contradicts its interests.”

The Chinese foreign ministry’s reaction to Assad’s potential downfall has been subdued, emphasizing the safety of Chinese citizens and advocating for a “political solution” to restore stability in Syria promptly. On Monday, foreign affairs spokesperson Mao Ning suggested a willingness to engage with any future government, stating, “China’s amicable relations with Syria are intended for the benefit of all Syrian people.”

Chinese experts and diplomats indicate that Beijing will take a cautious approach before officially recognizing a new government in Damascus. They suggest that while China could leverage its expertise and financial resources to aid in reconstruction efforts, its commitments are expected to be limited due to a recent trend of minimizing financial risks abroad.

Although Syria became a participant in China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2022, there have been no notable investments from Chinese companies since then, largely due to sanctions. Bill Figueroa, an assistant professor at the University of Groningen and a specialist in China-Middle East relations, remarked that China is not positioned to fundamentally replace the West as an economic, diplomatic, or military partner in the region.

He noted that in 2024, China’s financial capacity is significantly lower than it was in 2013-2014, when the Belt and Road Initiative was initiated, highlighting a clear shift towards safer investments and a reduction in overall financial risks.