Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi asserted to military leaders and journalists a week after Bashar al-Assad‘s fall in Syria, “I am not responsible for anyone’s bloodshed, nor have I taken anyone’s wealth.”

Having risen to power a decade ago through a coup, Sisi, a former army general, has largely avoided making explicit statements regarding Assad’s exit. Nevertheless, his comments reflect a growing concern about the stability of his own regime.

With Assad’s removal, Sisi may be increasingly conscious of his position as the most authoritarian leader in the Arab world, overseeing more than 65,000 political prisoners, numerous cases of enforced disappearances, and a systematic approach to torture that constitutes a crime against humanity.

In mid-December, Sisi convened a meeting with military and police officials, as well as pro-government journalists, at the Strategic Command headquarters located in the New Administrative Capital, a contentious $58 billion project east of Cairo.

The meeting was not fully aired, and state media highlighted select excerpts focusing on two main themes: Sisi’s distinction from Assad and a warning to Egyptians against emulating the Syrian rebels.

On December 23, Egyptian state-affiliated media aired a video compilation of past speeches by President Sisi directed at the public. In these addresses, Sisi remarked, “They have completed their mission in Syria; they have destroyed Syria, and the objective now is to dismantle the Egyptian state,” without clarifying the entities he was referencing or attributing responsibility for Syria’s devastation.

Hisham Kassem, an Egyptian politician and former leader of the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights (EOHR), indicated that Sisi’s statements reveal concerns regarding possible popular movements against the existing regime.

Kassem remarked that “Sisi’s comments serve as a warning about the potential consequences of a popular uprising, revolution, or the rise of political activism aimed at fostering change.”

Recently, the hashtag #The_Land_The_People_The_Army has gained popularity on social media, with support from accounts linked to Sisi’s administration.

In what seems to be a coordinated online initiative, Sisi’s statements have been extensively shared, accompanied by dire warnings of a conspiracy to destabilize Egypt and weaken its military, drawing comparisons to the circumstances in Syria.

‘Better than Syria and Iraq’

Since taking office in June 2014, Sisi has concentrated on averting civic unrest similar to that of the January 2011 revolution.

In light of an economic downturn and increasing difficulties faced by many Egyptians, Sisi has adopted a strategy that leverages fear—particularly the fear of Syria’s outcome—to suppress dissent.

Through stringent security protocols, he has curtailed protests, criminalized demonstrations, and established over 23 new correctional facilities.

The regime’s narrative consistently cautions Egyptians against engaging in protests, frequently referencing the catastrophic consequences of the Syrian civil war, which include extensive destruction and mass displacement.

“Better than Syria and Iraq” has emerged as one of Sisi’s frequently employed slogans.

State-controlled media serves as a vehicle for propaganda, often fostering animosity towards opposition.

This media, managed by United Media Services—associated with the Egyptian General Intelligence Service—has initiated a fear-based campaign, emphasizing that Egypt is fundamentally different from Syria.

A similar strategy was employed by Egyptian authorities during the initial phases of the Arab Spring.

For instance, on January 15, 2011, after the ousting of Tunisian President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, Egyptian media, which supported then-President Hosni Mubarak, repeatedly asserted, “Egypt is not Tunisia,” in an effort to dissuade protests that ultimately led to Mubarak’s resignation.

In a similar vein, the media aligned with Sisi has shown signs of discomfort following Assad’s decline.

Notable media personality Amr Adeeb, who recently acquired Saudi citizenship, warned against Sisi potentially facing a fate akin to Assad’s, advocating for reliance solely on the military and police forces. Other commentators echoed this sentiment, labeling Syria’s transitional leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, as a terrorist threat to both countries.

Kassem stated that “Egyptian media has now reached a point where it simply follows orders without contributing to content development.”

He noted that, in contrast to the era of Mubarak or the initial phase of Sisi’s administration, when media aligned with the regime played a significant role in influencing policies, it currently functions merely as an executor of directives, failing to make any efforts to amend or enhance them, even when such actions would evidently serve the regime’s interests.

Increased Security Measures for Syrians

The growing concerns regarding the situation in Syria have led to stricter security protocols imposed by Egyptian authorities on Syrians, primarily refugees, living in Egypt.

In Cairo, members of the Syrian community who gathered to celebrate Assad’s downfall were arrested under the justification of protesting without authorization.

The motivations behind these actions seemed to go beyond simple legal enforcement.

A recent report from the French media outlet African Intelligence indicated that officials from the Egyptian General Intelligence Service and the National Security Agency conducted meetings with Syrian community leaders, effectively cautioning them against engaging in demonstrations organized by Sharaa.

According to African Intelligence, the message from the security services was clear: “Remain in your homes and report any potential gatherings; failure to do so may result in arrest or deportation.”

In a related development, the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR), a prominent human rights organization, reported earlier this week that Egyptian authorities have issued deportation orders for around three Syrians detained at the First of October Police Station.

Additionally, it has come to light that more detainees are being held in various police stations, including the Second of October Police Station. This raises the total number of detainees to approximately 30 Syrians who are currently awaiting decisions from the passports and immigration authority, as well as directives from the National Security Agency.

A lesson for Sisi

Over the last ten years, Sisi has consistently highlighted the importance of the Egyptian military for national stability, urging citizens to recognize its significance since 2011.

Sisi frequently positions himself as the guardian of Egypt, warning against the potential for chaos akin to that seen in Syria. “We can withstand hunger and thirst, but we remain steadfast,” he stated in one of his speeches.

The downfall of Assad serves as a powerful symbol and can be likened to Sisi’s governance. Following the capture of Aleppo by armed factions, Assad raised military salaries by 50 percent; however, the Syrian army still struggled to protect him as opposition forces advanced toward the capital.

In Egypt, President Sisi has bestowed considerable economic authority upon the military, which now oversees more than 60 percent of the nation’s economy. This situation raises alarms regarding the military’s allegiance in times of potential civil unrest. Sisi’s dependence on regional partners like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates mirrors Assad’s reliance on Iran and Russia. However, akin to Assad’s experience, Sisi may discover that his allies are reluctant to provide support when it is most needed.

Sisi’s concerns likely arise from the economic difficulties and social tensions that both Syria and Egypt are experiencing. In Syria, nearly 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line due to Assad’s policies. In Egypt, a recent statement from Social Solidarity Minister Maya Morsy indicated that approximately 12 million families are living in poverty, affecting an estimated 48 to 60 million citizens who are grappling with severe economic issues.

The glaring disparity between the opulence of Assad’s confiscated palaces and the financial struggles faced by many Egyptians underscores this dilemma.

Moreover, the stark contrast between the widespread poverty among Egyptians and Sisi’s extravagant new capital and presidential palace raises concerns about whether he might ultimately encounter a fate similar to that of Assad.

Sisi’s decision to host the G8 summit at his newly constructed presidential palace has been criticized as a significant miscalculation. The palace, which cost around 150 billion Egyptian pounds (approximately $3 billion), is particularly contentious as Sisi urges citizens to withstand economic hardships. Considering that the poverty threshold in Egypt is set at 90 pounds per day, this expenditure could potentially elevate around 55 million Egyptians above the poverty line.

“What transpired in Syria illustrates that stability cannot be attained through violence and oppression,” Kassem remarked.