Efforts are underway between Israelis and Palestinians to establish a ceasefire agreement, marking their first attempt in a year to halt the ongoing conflict in Gaza and facilitate the return of some hostages currently held in the Palestinian territory.
This cautious optimism arises as U.S. President Joe Biden‘s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, engages in discussions with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Thursday, prior to his visits to Egypt and Qatar, which are co-mediators alongside the U.S. in these negotiations.
A Western diplomat in the area indicated that a potential agreement is forming, although it is expected to be limited, likely involving the release of a small number of hostages and a brief cessation of hostilities. This proposed truce would represent only the second since the conflict escalated in October 2023 and could also lead to the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
David Barnea, head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, met with Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, in Doha on Wednesday to discuss the ceasefire and hostage release.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz communicated with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Wednesday, expressing that there is now a possibility for an agreement that would facilitate the return of all hostages, including American citizens, according to Katz’s office. However, any agreement beyond a limited truce appears unlikely as both parties maintain demands that have obstructed previous negotiations. Hamas insists on an end to the conflict before all hostages are released, while Israel asserts that hostilities will continue until Hamas is no longer in control of Gaza or poses a threat to Israeli security.
The conflict erupted when Hamas militants invaded Israeli communities in October 2023, resulting in approximately 1,200 fatalities and the abduction of around 250 individuals, as reported by Israeli sources. In response, the Israeli military has conducted extensive operations in Gaza, leading to the deaths of nearly 45,000 Palestinians and displacing almost the entire population of 2.3 million, which has triggered severe food shortages and health crises, according to Palestinian health officials.
‘SEVERE CONSEQUENCES’
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has insisted that Hamas must release the hostages in Gaza prior to his inauguration on January 20. He has warned that failure to do so will result in “severe consequences.” Trump’s appointed hostage envoy, Adam Boehler, has indicated his involvement in the situation, having already communicated with both President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Currently, around 100 hostages remain in Gaza, including seven U.S. citizens.
Boehler stated in an interview with Israel’s Channel 13 news last week: “I urge those holding hostages to negotiate the best possible deal now. Delaying will only make it more difficult, and more lives will be lost among Hamas.” Although Biden and Trump are pursuing separate initiatives, their objectives align, and both could benefit from a resolution. A U.S. official noted that Trump’s public calls for a prompt ceasefire have not been detrimental. The primary focus remains on securing the hostages’ return, whether during Biden’s presidency or at the beginning of Trump’s administration.
Steve Witkoff, appointed by Trump as the Middle East envoy, held separate meetings in late November with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
OPTIMAL TIMING FOR NETANYAHU
The current circumstances may present an unprecedented opportunity for Netanyahu to negotiate a deal. On Monday, the prime minister indicated to reporters that the growing isolation of Hamas, following the decline of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, has created a potential pathway for a hostage agreement, although he cautioned that it is premature to declare any success.
The recent public optimism expressed by Israeli leaders aligns with the prevailing sentiment in private discussions, as noted by an Israeli official. For Netanyahu, making concessions is now more feasible, given that Israel has reaffirmed its status as the dominant power in the Middle East, while the threats from Iran-aligned adversaries in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria have diminished.
Additionally, Netanyahu’s coalition has gained strength with the inclusion of Foreign Minister Gideon Saar and his centrist faction. Having secured a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Netanyahu is now positioned to finalize the situation with the return of the hostages.
Over the last year, certain far-right ministers within his cabinet expressed their dissent, even threatening to destabilize the government if the conflict in Gaza were to conclude. However, with Israel’s adversaries diminished and his coalition more robust, Netanyahu finds himself in a significantly stronger political position.
On Monday, Saar indicated that Israel is now more hopeful regarding a potential hostage agreement, following reports that Hamas has requested assistance from other factions in Gaza to create a list of Israeli and foreign hostages in their possession, regardless of their status.
A Palestinian official involved in the discussions and knowledgeable about the stances of all parties described the situation as a “fever of negotiations,” with proposals emerging from various sides, including mediators from Egypt and Qatar.
The involvement of Trump has reportedly invigorated the negotiations, according to the Palestinian official. He noted that Hamas is prepared to exhibit some flexibility, provided there are assurances that Israel will refrain from resuming hostilities.
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