Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on Sunday that the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is a “direct result” of Israel’s military actions against Iran and its ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon.

“This marks a historic day in the Middle East,” he remarked.

However, reflecting the potential threats posed by uncertain leadership in Damascus, Netanyahu announced that he had instructed the military to take control of the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria.

“Alongside the Defense Minister and with the full support of the Cabinet, I ordered the IDF yesterday to secure the buffer zone and the key positions adjacent to it,” he stated during his visit to the Golan Heights. “We will not permit any hostile entity to establish a presence on our border.”

This action marks the first instance of Israeli troops being stationed in the buffer zone since a 1974 agreement that defined the line of control between Israel and Syria, although they have previously entered the no-man’s land for short durations. Since 1974, the area has been monitored by United Nations peacekeepers. Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967 and subsequently annexed it in 1981.

Israeli officials are observing the developments in Syria with a blend of anxiety and satisfaction, as decades of relative calm were disrupted in just a few hours.

Boaz Shapira, a researcher at the Alma Foundation, a think tank focused on northern Israel, remarked, “Our understanding is limited. The dynamics we have known in Syria for the past 50 years under the Assad regime have undergone a complete transformation.”

While Bashar al-Assad was not a true ally, there existed a mutual understanding that facilitated coexistence between the nations. Israel occasionally provided medical assistance to victims of Syria’s civil war but maintained a stance of official neutrality throughout the conflict. For years, the Israeli military has targeted Iranian supply lines and its proxy Hezbollah in Syria, including the notable killing of Iranian military leaders at the Iranian consulate in Damascus last April, while refraining from direct action against the Assad regime.

The swift takeover of Damascus by rebel forces necessitates a reassessment of security implications for Israeli leaders.

Iran has now lost a significant stronghold in the region, which is likely to be welcomed in Israel, especially as it has been engaged in confrontations with Iranian-backed groups in Gaza (Hamas) and Lebanon (Hezbollah) since October of the previous year.

Prime Minister Netanyahu, who stated that the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah would shift “the balance of power in the region for years to come,” is likely to view this development as a step toward achieving that objective.

Mordechai Kedar, an expert in Syrian affairs with a 25-year background in Israeli military intelligence, noted that the unfolding events in Syria are a ripple effect stemming from Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7. “This is not just an Israeli concern; the entire Middle East will celebrate,” he conveyed to CNN.

The downfall of the Assad regime represents a significant setback for Iran, according to Amos Yadlin, a former major general in the Israel Defense Forces and ex-chief of the Military Intelligence Directorate.

He noted that the act of rebels removing posters of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani and Nasrallah from the Iranian embassy in Damascus underscores the magnitude of the impact on the alliance. Yadlin emphasized that the task of rebuilding Hezbollah has become increasingly challenging due to the loss of Syria, which previously served as a logistical support base for arms supplied by Assad, Iran, and Russia.

However, there remains uncertainty, even within Israel, regarding the identity of the rebels now in control of Syria and their plans for governance.

The offensive was spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has historical ties to al Qaeda. The U.S. government has placed a $10 million bounty on its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, whose actual name is Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Kedar remarked that despite their extremist origins, initial signs are encouraging. “Thus far, they have shown a degree of rationality,” he stated. “For instance, they are allowing the government to continue its operations.”

Jolani has urged rebel factions to refrain from targeting state institutions. In a message on Telegram, he instructed all military forces in Damascus to avoid approaching public facilities, which will remain under the oversight of the former Prime Minister until an official transfer occurs, and he also prohibited celebratory gunfire.

In this context, they are drawing lessons from the American experience in Iraq. Their intention is not to devastate the nation but to ensure the system functions effectively—albeit under new regulations and leadership. This approach reflects a pragmatic strategy for governance.

Yadlin remarked that Jolani has shown considerable political acumen, managing to gain control over Syria with minimal conflict.

“In the immediate future, the rebels do not pose a threat to Israel,” he noted. “When it comes time for him to assert his authority in Syria, he will likely avoid confrontation with the region’s most formidable military force. Israel must establish the parameters of engagement with Syria as assertively as it does with Lebanon.”

However, this perspective is not universally accepted. Israel’s Minister of Diaspora and Combating Antisemitism, Amichai Chikli, stated that “the reality is that a significant portion of Syria is now under the influence of al-Qaeda and Daesh affiliates.” He urged the Israeli military to secure full control of the buffer zone that has existed since 1974 between Israeli and Syrian territories.

Indeed, Israel’s primary concern remains the security of its border with Syria. The IDF announced that troop deployments within the Golan buffer zone were implemented “to safeguard the communities in the Golan Heights and the citizens of Israel.”

Shapira expressed skepticism about Israel’s desire to provoke the new leadership in Damascus by advancing into Syrian-controlled Golan. “Expanding our territory means we would have to contend with other actors who may not welcome such actions,” he cautioned.

“There are numerous militias involved,” Shapira added. “This will present significant challenges for Israel.”

The Israeli military, in its announcement regarding operations in the Golan, stated: “The State of Israel does not involve itself in the internal conflict occurring within Syria.”

Israel’s senior security and political officials have largely remained silent on the situation in Syria, likely as they assess their response options.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid remarked that the potential removal of Assad highlights the necessity of forming a robust regional coalition with Saudi Arabia and the nations involved in the Abraham Accords (Bahrain, UAE, Morocco, Sudan) to collaboratively tackle regional instability. He noted that the Iranian influence has significantly diminished, and Israel should aim for a comprehensive political solution that would also benefit its interests in Gaza and the West Bank.