Su-24M tactical bombers strike over 50 targets in the Baltic – What are Putin’s intentions?

This week, crews operating Su-24M tactical bombers from the Russian Baltic Fleet’s naval aviation conducted a flight-tactical exercise in the vicinity of Kaliningrad, focusing on precision strikes against simulated enemy targets.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the drills, which were covered by the state-run TASS news agency. The exercises aimed at neutralizing military-industrial sites, airfields, vital economic infrastructure, troop concentrations, command centers, and convoys of military equipment.

Approximately 10 aircraft and 50 personnel from the fleet’s mixed aviation regiment took part, targeting over 50 objectives using unguided air-to-air missiles and bombs.

Conducted in the Baltic Sea region, the exercise sought to enhance crew coordination and tactical proficiency, drawing lessons from Russia’s ongoing military engagements. This training highlights Moscow’s commitment to strengthening its defensive capabilities in a strategically important area adjacent to NATO countries.

The Su-24M, a Soviet-era frontline bomber featuring variable-sweep wings, continues to be a vital asset for the Baltic Fleet, primarily stationed in Kaliningrad—an enclave situated between Poland and Lithuania—and near St. Petersburg.

During the exercise, pilots engaged in low-altitude maneuvers, air combat strategies, reconnaissance, and strikes using onboard munitions, simulating a modern combined-arms battlefield. TASS reported that the drills also involved providing fire support to ground units of the Baltic Fleet, illustrating the integration of air and land forces in modern warfare.

The fleet’s press office highlighted that the training exercises were informed by experiences from Russia’s “special military operation,” a term referring to its actions in Ukraine, emphasizing their relevance to real-world scenarios. While no specific enemy was identified, the context and scale imply a response to perceived threats in the Baltic area.

Kaliningrad’s strategic location enhances the importance of these drills. Nestled between NATO allies Poland and Lithuania, this exclave functions as a forward operating base for Russia, accommodating a diverse array of air, naval, and missile forces.

The Baltic Sea, a relatively small region bordered by Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Denmark, Germany, and the recently joined NATO member Finland, has historically been a hotspot for tensions between East and West.

The Su-24M crews’ emphasis on targeting critical infrastructure and military installations reflects Russia’s overarching deterrence strategy, aimed at safeguarding its western borders from potential threats. Although the exercise involved around 10 aircraft, it was modest in size yet significant in its complexity, assessing the fleet’s capability to implement a coordinated tactical strategy under simulated combat scenarios.

The background of the Su-24M adds context to its current function. Developed in the 1970s, this aircraft was intended for deep-strike missions against NATO forces during the Cold War, with a capacity to carry up to 8 tons of munitions, including bombs, rockets, and early precision-guided weapons.

Despite its age, enhancements such as upgraded navigation and targeting systems have maintained its operational relevance, boasting a combat radius of approximately 600 kilometers—sufficient to reach targets across the Baltic states or into Poland from Kaliningrad. Its low-altitude flight capability, often below radar detection, improves its chances of evading air defenses, a tactic likely refined during the recent exercises.

Russia has extensively utilized the Su-24 in both Syria and Ukraine, targeting military and civilian infrastructure, which has provided crews with valuable practical experience that is now being incorporated into their training programs.

Defense analysts interpret this military activity as a message directed at NATO’s eastern flank. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—former Soviet republics that are now NATO allies—are within striking range of Kaliningrad, as is Poland, a crucial component of the alliance’s regional strategy.

Since 2014, NATO has enhanced its presence in these nations through the Enhanced Forward Presence initiative, deploying multinational battlegroups led by the U.S., UK, Germany, and Canada. The Baltic states, which have limited air capabilities, depend significantly on NATO air policing operations conducted from bases such as Ämari in Estonia and Šiauliai in Lithuania.

A retired U.S. Air Force officer, speaking to Defense News, remarked that the Su-24M’s capabilities are suited for missions aimed at disrupting such operations, potentially targeting runways or radar installations during a crisis. “It’s a blunt tool, but it gets the job done,” he stated.

The congested airspace over the Baltic Sea adds further complexity. NATO frequently conducts exercises in this area, including the annual BALTOPS naval drills, which involve ships and aircraft from various member nations, including Denmark and Germany. In response, Russia conducts its own exercises, often flying near NATO airspace to assess response times.

The Su-24M has been involved in notable incidents, such as in 2016 when two bombers flew dangerously close to the USS Donald Cook over the Baltic Sea, leading to U.S. condemnation. While the latest exercise may not be overtly provocative, it aligns with a pattern of asserting dominance in the region.

A Russian naval officer, speaking anonymously to TASS, characterized the training as “a routine step to maintain readiness,” minimizing any suggestion of escalatory intentions.

Comparisons with Western aircraft reveal both the advantages and drawbacks of the Su-24M. When compared to the U.S. F-16 and the UK’s Tornado GR4—both of which are either retired or being phased out—the Su-24M does not possess stealth capabilities but makes up for it with superior speed and payload capacity.

The F-16 boasts a combat radius exceeding 500 kilometers and is equipped with precision-guided munitions, making it highly versatile. In contrast, the Su-24M relies on its significant firepower and ability to operate at low altitudes. However, contemporary NATO defense systems, such as the Patriot PAC-3 and Norway’s NASAMS, could pose a threat to its survivability, particularly due to its outdated electronic countermeasures.

Nonetheless, the Su-24M’s capacity for rapid strikes from Kaliningrad ensures its continued relevance, especially against less fortified targets like infrastructure or troop concentrations, as demonstrated in recent drills.

The focus on crew coordination during these exercises aligns with broader shifts in Russian military strategy. Insights gained from the conflict in Ukraine, where air support has been crucial yet often hindered by Ukrainian air defenses, seem to shape the training approach.

A press release from the Baltic Fleet, reported by TASS, emphasized the importance of collaboration between air and ground forces, reflecting the hybrid warfare tactics observed in Eastern Europe. Pilots engaged in evasive maneuvers and target identification, essential skills for operating in contested airspace where NATO aircraft like the Eurofighter Typhoon or F-35 could quickly engage.

A European defense analyst, speaking to Jane’s Defence Weekly, noted that Russia is attempting to mitigate the Su-24M’s age through enhanced pilot training. “They’re maximizing every capability from an aging platform,” he remarked.

Responses from the region vary. Lithuania’s defense ministry provided a brief statement to Reuters acknowledging the exercise but refrained from speculating on its purpose, simply noting that NATO is vigilant regarding Russian activities.

Estonia and Latvia, which frequently experience Russian overflights, have not made public comments, although their dependence on NATO for deterrence is evident.

Poland has significantly enhanced its air defense capabilities in recent years by deploying U.S.-provided HIMARS and Patriot systems, a strategic response to the military assets stationed in Kaliningrad. A spokesperson for the Polish military conveyed to the PAP news agency, “We’re prepared for any scenario,” underscoring Warsaw’s readiness.

Discussions on social media platforms like X reveal varying public perceptions. Some users dismissed the military drills as standard procedure, with one commenting, “Same old Kaliningrad playbook—nothing new here.” Conversely, others interpreted the maneuvers as a show of strength against NATO, with one post stating, “Su-24s buzzing the Baltics again? Russia’s not subtle.”

The absence of significant escalation—unlike previous events—resulted in a relatively low level of online engagement, although military enthusiasts continued to express interest in the Su-24M’s activities. Without official statements from NATO, the immediate implications of the exercise remain uncertain, but its timing amidst ongoing tensions between East and West ensures it will attract attention.

The operational record of the Su-24M in the Baltic region is not without blemishes. In 2014, a training flight near Kaliningrad ended in tragedy when a crash claimed the lives of both crew members, raising concerns about the aircraft’s maintenance and reliability.

Since then, modernization initiatives have enhanced the fleet, although precise figures regarding operational units remain ambiguous. Estimates from the International Institute for Strategic Studies indicate that Russia has approximately 100 Su-24s across various military branches, with a small number allocated to the Baltic region.

The recent exercise, which successfully targeted over 50 objectives, indicates that the aircraft are still operational. However, their effectiveness against advanced defense systems is a topic of debate. A 2023 report from the Center for Naval Analyses highlighted that while the Su-24M can still pose a threat to unprotected targets, its role as a primary strike aircraft is diminishing.

Looking forward, the Baltic Fleet’s dependence on the Su-24M may evolve as Russia begins to deploy newer aircraft such as the Su-34 or Su-57. However, budget limitations and production setbacks have hindered this transition.

Currently, the Su-24M functions as a reliable asset, serving as a link between Soviet-era capabilities and contemporary requirements. Its involvement in recent exercises highlights a practical strategy—leveraging existing resources to assert influence in a region where NATO’s presence is expanding.

The drills’ emphasis on economic targets suggests a disruptive strategy, aiming to cause significant damage in a potential conflict without the need for cutting-edge technology.

As the activities conclude near Kaliningrad, the Baltic Fleet’s capabilities continue to attract attention from both Russia and its neighboring countries. While the exercise may not dramatically shift the status quo, it reaffirms Moscow’s dedication to safeguarding its western territory.

The impact on the balance of power in the Baltic Sea will largely depend on NATO’s reactions and Russia’s subsequent actions. For the time being, the Su-24M crews have enhanced their proficiency, leaving the strategic landscape of the region as precarious as ever.