Syrian opposition forces have overthrown President Assad, who has fled the country

Syrian rebels announced the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad after taking control of Damascus on Sunday, compelling him to flee and marking the end of his family’s long-standing rule following over 13 years of civil conflict, a pivotal moment for the Middle East.

This development significantly undermines the influence of Russia and Iran in Syria, both of whom have been key allies supporting Assad during critical phases of the war.

The rebels reported that they entered the capital without encountering any military presence. Witnesses observed thousands of individuals, both in vehicles and on foot, gathering in a central square, celebrating and chanting “Freedom” in response to the end of half a century of Assad family governance.

Footage showed people entering the Al-Rawda Presidential Palace, with some seen exiting while carrying furniture. The rebels also claimed that prisoners had been released from a major prison located on the outskirts of Damascus, where the Syrian government had held thousands.

“We celebrate with the Syrian people the news of freeing our prisoners and releasing their chains,” the rebels stated. Additionally, reports from Iran’s English-language Press TV indicated that Syrian rebels stormed Iran’s embassy.

Hezbollah, which had been a vital supporter of Assad for many years, reportedly withdrew all its forces from Syria on Saturday as rebel factions advanced towards the capital, according to two Lebanese security sources.

A source indicated that the supervisory forces deployed by Hezbollah to Syria during the night from Thursday to Friday were tasked with overseeing the withdrawal. On Sunday, Syria’s military command informed its officers that the regime of Assad had come to an end, according to a Syrian officer who received this information, as reported by Reuters. However, the military later announced that it would continue its operations against “terrorist groups” in the critical cities of Hama and Homs, as well as in the Deraa region.

Assad, who has remained silent in public since the unexpected advance of rebel forces a week prior, reportedly left Damascus for an undisclosed location earlier on Sunday, as confirmed by two senior military officials to Reuters. Meanwhile, rebels claimed they had entered the capital without any visible military presence. The current locations of Assad, his wife Asma, and their two children are still unknown. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Assad had vacated his position and left the country after issuing orders for a peaceful transition of power.

The Syrian rebel coalition announced that it is actively working to finalize the transfer of authority in Syria to a transitional governing body endowed with full executive powers. In a statement, they noted, “The great Syrian revolution has transitioned from the phase of fighting to overthrow the Assad regime to the phase of collaboratively building a Syria that honors the sacrifices of its people.” As celebrations erupted among Syrians, Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali called for the establishment of free elections.

A smooth transition in a nation characterized by intricate and competing interests, ranging from Islamist factions to groups affiliated with the United States, Russia, and Turkey, would be essential. Jalali mentioned that he has been in discussions with rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani regarding the management of the transitional phase, representing a significant step in efforts to influence Syria’s political landscape.

The downfall of Assad’s regime has been precipitated by a shift in the regional power dynamics, particularly following the deaths of numerous leaders from Lebanon’s Iranian-backed Hezbollah, a crucial component of Assad’s military strength, due to Israeli actions in recent months.

The path forward is fraught with complexity, as various factions pursue divergent objectives. According to a Turkish security source, Turkey-backed Syrian forces have gained control of approximately 80% of the Manbij area in northern Syria and are nearing a decisive victory over Kurdish forces. Additionally, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov engaged in discussions with Geir Pedersen, the U.N. envoy for Syria, in Doha on Saturday, where they explored potential strategies to stabilize the situation in Syria, as reported by the Interfax news agency.

Konstantin Kosachyov, deputy chairman of Russia’s upper house of parliament, stated that Syrians may have to face a full-scale civil war independently, while indicating that Moscow could offer support to the Syrian populace under certain conditions.

Russia, a key ally of Assad, made a significant military intervention in 2015 to support him during the Syrian civil war. However, with most of its military resources currently focused on Ukraine, Moscow’s capacity to affect the situation in Syria has been considerably diminished this time, even though it continues to operate two military bases in the country.

US TO MAINTAIN PRESENCE

The civil war in Syria began in 2011 as a revolt against Assad’s regime, drawing in numerous foreign powers, enabling jihadist groups to plan global attacks, and resulting in millions of refugees fleeing to neighboring countries. After years of relative calm on the frontlines, Islamist factions previously linked to Al Qaeda have re-emerged, presenting a significant challenge to Assad’s authority. This rapid shift has alarmed Arab nations and heightened concerns about a potential resurgence of regional instability.

The situation represents a critical juncture for Syria, which has been devastated by years of conflict that have reduced cities to ruins, claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, and displaced millions.

Stabilizing the western regions of Syria that were captured during the rebel offensive will be crucial. Western nations, which have distanced themselves from the Assad government for years, now face the challenge of engaging with a new administration that is likely to be influenced by the globally recognized terrorist organization, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The United States plans to sustain its presence in eastern Syria and will implement necessary measures to thwart any resurgence of the Islamic State, as stated by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, Daniel Shapiro, during the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain’s capital. Prior to its defeat, the Islamic State had instilled widespread fear across significant areas of Syria and Iraq.

During a conference in Doha, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized that “terrorist organizations” should not be permitted to exploit the circumstances in Syria, urging all parties to proceed with caution. HTS, which has led the rebel movements in western Syria, was previously affiliated with al Qaeda as the Nusra Front until its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, cut ties with the global jihadist network in 2016.

Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, remarked, “The real question is how orderly will this transition be, and it seems quite clear that Golani is very eager for it to be an orderly one.” Golani is likely keen to avoid a repeat of the disorder that engulfed Iraq following the U.S.-led invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein in 2003. “They will need to rebuild … and will require Europe and the U.S. to lift sanctions,” Landis added.

HTS stands as Syria’s most formidable rebel faction, and there are concerns among some Syrians that it may enforce harsh Islamist governance or provoke retaliatory actions. Nations such as the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, both of which are strong U.S. allies, perceive Islamist militant groups as a significant threat, suggesting that HTS may encounter opposition from regional powers.

At a conference in Manama, Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic advisor to the president of the United Arab Emirates, expressed that a primary concern for his country is “extremism and terrorism.” He noted that Syria has not yet fully stabilized, and he was uncertain about the current status of Assad in the UAE.

Gargash attributed Assad’s downfall to a lack of effective political strategy, noting that he failed to take advantage of the ‘lifeline’ extended by several Arab nations, including the UAE. Israel, likely to view the collapse of its adversary Assad as a positive development following its significant weakening of other key opponents, Hezbollah and Hamas, over the past year, announced the deployment of forces in the U.N.-monitored buffer zone with Syria and at various strategic locations for defense purposes.

Reports from one Lebanese and one Syrian security source indicated that suspected Israeli airstrikes targeted the Mazzeh district of Damascus on Sunday. Additionally, jets believed to be Israeli conducted bombings at the Khalkhala air base in southern Syria, which had been evacuated by the Syrian army the previous night, according to two regional security sources speaking to Reuters.

The Israeli government has not provided an immediate response to the reported strikes, which one source suggested were intended to prevent weapons from reaching radical groups.