Less than two weeks ago, Tucker Carlson, a conservative podcaster with significant insights into US President Donald Trump, conducted an interview with Qatar’s prime minister. During their discussion, they praised Trump’s strong leadership in negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza.
“Once Trump is elected in November and inaugurated in January, a ceasefire will be established immediately,” Carlson stated.
In agreement, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani expressed his disappointment: “It saddens me that the agreement we reached on January 15 of this year is nearly identical—about 95 percent—the same as what was agreed upon in December and March.”
He added, “During the previous [Biden] administration, we collaborated closely, but ultimately… President Trump, of course, understands that if a deal isn’t finalized before the inauguration, it could have repercussions.”
On Tuesday, Israel made it clear that there would be no repercussions for abandoning a deal that the US, Egypt, and Qatar had invested their reputations in.
Israel launched a severe attack on the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, resulting in the deaths of over 400 Palestinians, according to health officials in Gaza.
The Trump administration had already authorized Israel to continue its offensive in Gaza. On Tuesday, the acting US ambassador to the UN stated that the responsibility for the renewed conflict in Gaza lay “solely” with Hamas.
‘No one respects Trump’s word now’
Trump’s credibility has diminished significantly, according to analysts and Arab diplomats, following the renewed large-scale Israeli attacks, which suggest that the United States can no longer influence its ally, Israel.
“Trump entered office proclaiming himself as the new sheriff in town, but Netanyahu has disregarded him completely. His word holds no weight now. He must reclaim authority,” stated Marwa Maziad, an expert on Israel at the University of Maryland, in an interview with Middle East Eye.
Trump’s assertive stance regarding the Gaza Strip was shaped after Israeli media disclosed that his envoy, Steve Witkoff, had pressured Netanyahu into agreeing to a ceasefire before Trump officially took office.
In the months that followed, Trump caused alarm among Arab allies by endorsing a controversial plan for the U.S. to “take control” of the Gaza Strip and forcibly relocate its Palestinian residents to Jordan and Egypt.
Even high-ranking U.S. officials, not to mention Arab leaders, were left uncertain about whether Trump was serious or merely attempting to leverage his negotiating skills to encourage the wealthy Gulf states to propose a reconstruction plan for Gaza.
There appeared to be a division within Trump’s inner circle.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Trump’s staunchest supporters, asserted that the U.S. had no intention of displacing Palestinians or conquering Gaza.
However, Trump’s proposal seemed to mirror ideas previously suggested by his son-in-law and former advisor Jared Kushner, which closely resembled those of a little-known Israeli professor who claimed to have shared a vision with Kushner to transform the war-torn enclave into the “Gaza Riviera” while relocating Palestinians to Egypt.
Post-War Gaza Strategy
King Abdullah II of Jordan played a pivotal role in persuading Trump to abandon his initial proposal. During a visit to the White House in February, he lauded Trump publicly in the Oval Office but cautioned him privately that the plan could exacerbate “Islamic extremism,” as reported by MEE.
Following this meeting, Arab nations collaborated to formulate a strategy for post-war Gaza.
Egypt took the lead in this initiative, according to diplomats speaking to MEE, due to its extensive experience in Gaza’s reconstruction following past conflicts. Additionally, Egyptian intelligence maintains connections with Hamas leaders, including members of the Qassam brigades, who would need to disarm for the Gulf states to invest in Gaza’s rebuilding.
Earlier this month, Egypt unveiled a $53 billion proposal for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. While it lacked specifics regarding funding sources, it suggested that the Palestinian Authority should govern the region and proposed the establishment of a new security force trained by Jordan and Egypt.
Critics in Israel and the US argued that the plan was insufficiently stringent towards Hamas. It also included provisions for constructing a new port and airport in Gaza and left open the possibility of deploying UN peacekeepers to both the enclave and the occupied West Bank. Such large-scale international projects are likely to face resistance from Israeli officials and analysts in both the US and the Middle East.
Israel outright rejected the proposal, while the Trump administration expressed a more cautious stance.
The spokesperson for the US National Security Council dismissed the plan, but Arab officials noted that Trump’s comments suggested a more favorable view, with Witkoff asserting that the plan served as the “foundation for reconstruction efforts.”
Trump himself publicly affirmed that no Palestinians would be displaced from the Gaza Strip following the announcement of the plan.
In early March, Israel began restricting supplies to the Gaza Strip during Ramadan, followed by a cut in electricity to the region. Shortly thereafter, military strikes resumed.
US-Hamas Negotiations and Reversals
Israel’s choice to unilaterally restart hostilities in the Gaza Strip reflects the ongoing uncertainty surrounding its future.
The initial phase of the ceasefire established in January concluded weeks ago, yet Israel has been slow to progress to phase II.
Witkoff managed to persuade a reluctant Netanyahu to support the popular decision to release captives in Gaza in exchange for Israeli prisoners, but his influence seems to have waned thereafter.
The US sought to resolve the deadlock regarding the Gaza ceasefire by proposing that Hamas release the 27 living captives still in the enclave in return for an extension of a temporary truce. While Israel welcomed this initiative, Hamas insisted on advancing to phase II.
Moreover, analysts and diplomats are speculating that Trump was initially poised to exert pressure on Netanyahu but shifted his stance following backlash from Israel.
Trump took a firm stance against Hamas, warning earlier this month that Palestinians would face dire consequences if the remaining hostages were not released. He declared, “RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER!” addressing any Palestinian involved in holding hostages.
Simultaneously, Trump, known for his negotiation skills, seemed to be exploring potential compromises with Hamas.
He consented to allow his nominee for hostage affairs, Adam Boehler, to engage directly with the group in Doha, Qatar. Hamas is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States. The meeting was disclosed by Israeli media, inciting outrage among right-wing supporters of Israel in the U.S.
The White House stated that Boehler’s meeting with Hamas aimed to negotiate the release of one remaining American hostage. However, the envoy publicly indicated that he discussed a potential truce lasting five to ten years, during which Hamas would renounce political activities, while the U.S. and its Arab allies would oversee the demilitarization of Gaza. Boehler implied that the discussions were fruitful.
On Friday, Boehler was withdrawn from his position as the nominee for hostage affairs.
failure of Arab states
Analysts suggest that the Arab League’s plan for post-war Gaza lacks direction, and the Trump administration’s previous engagement with Hamas has left Israel with no choice but to resume military action.
Netanyahu has even experienced a political boost from the bombings in Gaza.
On Tuesday, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the former national security minister known for his extremist views, announced his return to the government after resigning in protest over the ceasefire in January.
Maziad commented that Israel’s military actions highlight “the failure of Arab states, particularly Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, to persuade Trump that Netanyahu is an obstacle to his objectives.”
“Trump could have been convinced to keep the pressure on Netanyahu,” she told MEE. “The real question is why the Arab states did not take action. I believe it stems from a lack of will. Do the Arab states actually want Netanyahu to succeed and remain in power?” she questioned.
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