The Hashemite monarchy in Jordan has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout its history. With the support of the British, they established a modest desert kingdom from the remnants of the Ottoman Empire following World War I. A few decades later, they witnessed the violent downfall of their relatives in Iraq during a coup. They faced defeat against Israel in the 1967 War but subsequently overcame Palestinian militants in the years that followed.

Despite these challenges, they have remained in power.

As King Abdullah II prepares to meet with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday, he can proudly assert that he is the longest-serving Arab leader, representing one of the region’s oldest royal families. His objective is to maintain this legacy.

Abdullah’s agenda is straightforward. He must firmly communicate to Trump that his impoverished, resource-scarce nation will not accept an influx of Palestinian refugees, which would allow the US to “take control” of the Gaza Strip and transform it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”

The potential arrival of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees from the conflict-ridden Gaza Strip into Jordan is a scenario that both current and former officials from the US, Europe, and Arab nations believe could threaten the stability of Hashemite rule that Abdullah and his predecessors have skillfully preserved.

There are likely to be reconsiderations in Amman regarding the decision to rush to Washington, where the king became the first Arab leader to directly tell Trump, “we aren’t going to do what you want,” noted Bruce Reidel, a former CIA officer and author of “Jordan and America: An Enduring Friendship.”

More than half of Jordan’s population is of Palestinian origin, and analysts suggest they would react negatively to their government engaging in actions that the international community and most of the Arab world would view as “ethnic cleansing.”

Throughout the fifteen months of Israel’s conflict in Gaza, Abdullah managed to uphold the 1994 Peace Treaty established by his father, the late King Hussein, with Israel.

However, Trump’s suggestion that Palestinians should be relocated to Jordan is alarming enough that Amman would consider declaring war on Israel if such a scenario were to unfold.

Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi echoed this sentiment on Thursday.

Nevertheless, analysts express skepticism about whether the Jordanians would be able to act on that threat.

Jordan serves as a significant ally for the United States, hosting approximately 3,000 American troops under a defense agreement that grants them unrestricted access to various Jordanian military installations. The intelligence agencies of Jordan have a history of collaboration with Israel, effectively managing the complexities of their tenuous peace.

Despite President Trump’s affinity for royal figures, Jordan is a nation he tends to overlook. Its economy is struggling, it lacks natural resources, and its trade relations with the US are limited. While King Abdullah often presents himself in military attire, he does not exude the same confidence as other leaders in the region.

Unlike Israel and Egypt, which were spared from Trump’s cuts to foreign aid—including military assistance—Jordan was not exempt. The kingdom receives approximately $1.45 billion annually in military and economic support from the US, which encompasses significant direct budget assistance and $350 million in USAID contributions.

Additionally, Jordan’s other primary supporters, affluent Gulf nations, have significantly reduced their financial assistance in recent years.

Economic challenge

The bleak economic outlook for the country poses a significant challenge for the Hashemite monarchy, which has traditionally depended on patronage and government employment to garner support from the East Bank tribes—so named for their historical presence on the eastern bank of the Jordan River at the kingdom’s inception.

Trump has indicated that he anticipates Jordan will accept Palestinians in exchange for US financial aid.

“I expressed to him my desire for Jordan to take in more, as I am currently observing the situation in the Gaza Strip, which is quite chaotic,” Trump remarked following a phone conversation with King Abdullah in January.

Amer Sabaileh, a regional security analyst and university professor in Amman, stated that the Jordanian king will need to navigate his relationship with Trump carefully if he continues to engage in discussions.

“The most detrimental action at this point would be to refuse Trump,” Sabaileh noted. “We must enhance Jordan’s value in Trump’s perspective. Strengthening ties with Israel and leveraging security cooperation is essential,” he added. “I remain pessimistic.”

Some analysts suggest that Trump’s unexpected proposal for the U.S. to assume control of the Gaza Strip may serve as a strategic negotiating tactic to gain more concessions from Arab allies. While Jordan lacks the financial resources of the Gulf states, Reidel noted that the king could steer discussions towards the governance of Gaza in a post-conflict scenario.

“This meeting is likely to be contentious,” he remarked. “There is a fundamental disagreement between Jordan’s stance and Trump’s. A compromise is not feasible,” he continued. “If Egypt agrees to accept refugees, it could set a precedent for both Jordan and the West Bank.”

“Jordan perceives Israel as leaning towards the notion that Jordan is Palestine,” he stated.

Tariq Tell, a professor at the American University of Beirut and a member of one of Jordan’s leading political families, remarked that King Abdullah may ultimately find himself without significant gains.

“Should we take the saber rattling seriously, considering Jordan’s deep connections with the U.S.? It seems more like political maneuvering to obscure a long-term process of demographic change, which has often been violent but more frequently subtle, that has altered the balance between West Bankers and East Bankers in Jordan,” he explained.

Palace dynamics

Currently, Jordan enjoys the backing of Gulf nations and Egypt.

Saudi Arabia recently rejected Trump’s proposal, issuing a statement that firmly opposed any attempts to displace Palestinians from their homeland. The kingdom has shifted its stance from advocating for Israel to pursue a path toward a Palestinian state to insisting that such a state must be established prior to normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel.

“Trump’s primary objective in the Middle East is clear: to secure a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel,” stated Merissa Khurma, director of the Middle East program at the Wilson Center, in an interview.

However, underlying family rivalries and palace dynamics threaten to disrupt this show of unity.

In July 2021, Bassem Awadallah, an advisor to Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, received a fifteen-year prison sentence for his alleged involvement in a plot to position Abdullah’s younger brother, Prince Hamzeh, as a contender for the Hashemite Throne. Saudi Arabia has denied any connection to the matter, while Prince Hamzeh remains under house arrest.

Saudi Arabia attempted to remove Abdullah due to his refusal to accept Palestinian refugees from the occupied West Bank, which was part of an unsuccessful effort to normalize relations with Israel.

“King Abdullah has not forgotten that the Saudis were financing Hamzeh,” Reidel stated. “Abdullah is now much closer to the UAE.”

Is Kushner making a comeback?

Several influential Jordanians said that King Abdullah harbors skepticism towards Trump’s inner circle.

The Jordanians experienced a moment of solidarity when Trump’s national security advisor, Mike Waltz, who is married to a Jordanian American, appeared in Congress in 2023 wearing a Jordanian keffiyeh. However, it is Trump’s family that causes them concern.

“The ideological framework of Trump’s Gaza plan is largely influenced by the family, particularly Jared,” a Jordanian source said. “It is evident they have been discussing it for months.”

Jared Kushner, who served as a senior advisor to Trump and is his son-in-law, proposed a controversial initiative during the initial Trump administration known as “The Deal of the Century.” This proposal suggested that Israel should annex 30 percent of the West Bank while establishing a Palestinian entity without military capabilities. To incentivize the Palestinian Authority, the plan included a promise of $50 billion in economic assistance, which was ultimately rejected.

In February 2024, Kushner suggested transforming Gaza into a real estate development zone, advocating for the “temporary” displacement of its Palestinian residents.

Jordan’s firm position is further complicated by its limited options, primarily warning Trump that his proposal could devastate the kingdom and trigger the chaos that previous administrations aimed to prevent.

While Jordan’s royal family is secular and educated in the West, the most influential political party in the nation is the Muslim Brotherhood, which gained significant support as Jordanians witnessed Israel’s military actions in Gaza, backed by American arms. Additionally, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria has resulted in an Islamist government bordering Jordan.

It remains uncertain whether Trump still considers Syria a priority or is concerned about the Muslim Brotherhood, navigating these issues will require a careful approach to address their implications in Jordan.