Donald Trump successfully brokered a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, but the challenges ahead for the President-elect will be unprecedented, as he must enforce this agreement in a region eager to reignite hostilities and face a resolute Hamas.

Analysts suggest that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s recent acceptance of the ceasefire is partly motivated by his desire to establish a positive relationship with Trump, who enjoys significant popularity in Israel.

Trump has indicated a willingness to support Netanyahu on issues such as the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and arms sales. He has appointed Mike Huckabee, a staunch advocate for West Bank annexation who has famously stated that “there is no such thing as a settlement,” as his ambassador to Israel.

During a Senate hearing this week, Marco Rubio, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, hinted that the new administration might lift sanctions imposed by the Biden administration last year on Israeli settlers and challenge the International Criminal Court regarding its genocide case against Israel.

William Usher, a former senior Middle East analyst at the CIA, noted in an interview, “I believe one of the reasons Netanyahu agreed to the deal was Trump’s desire for Israel to accept it. It’s likely that Netanyahu is looking for some last-minute concessions from Trump, such as approval for continued settlement expansion.”

The initial stage of the ceasefire is clear-cut and generally well-received in Israel, meaning it will not necessitate significant encouragement from Trump. This phase stipulates that Hamas must release 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for Israel liberating approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.

Trump will take advantage of the compelling visuals of hostages being freed coinciding with his inauguration on January 20. The comparison to Ronald Reagan’s inauguration in 1981, when Iran released embassy hostages, will resonate with the American public.

However, the initial goodwill is expected to diminish after six weeks, as Hamas and Israel will enter discussions for the second phase of the ceasefire.

The negotiations for the second phase are a far more delicate and contentious issue in Israel, as they involve the release of the remaining 65 hostages, including male Israeli soldiers, a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the establishment of a permanent ceasefire.

Hamas and Arab intermediaries are advocating for the release of Marwan Barghouti, a well-known Palestinian leader, during this phase, a demand that Israel strongly opposed during the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner swap.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is already facing the loss of one coalition member due to his agreement to the ceasefire, and more may follow if he adheres to the conditions that call for a definitive conclusion to the conflict.

Israeli media has reported that to secure the backing of far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Netanyahu has committed to maintaining military operations in Gaza.

If Trump aims to maintain stability in the Gaza Strip during his presidency while focusing on his “America First” domestic agenda, alongside resolving the conflict in Ukraine and addressing challenges posed by China, he may face challenges with Netanyahu.

Trump has already expressed frustration over the delays in the ceasefire approval from Israel’s cabinet, suggesting that Hamas reneged on certain aspects of the agreement.

“We shook hands, and we signed certain documents, but it better be done,” Trump stated in a podcast on Thursday. He has taken a proactive role in the ceasefire negotiations, announcing it as “EPIC” ahead of both Arab mediators and the Biden administration.

On Friday, Israel’s security cabinet ratified the agreement.

Arab mediators and regional officials are now questioning how Trump will uphold the ceasefire he has claimed responsibility for. While he has various incentives and pressures at his disposal, each faces limitations due to domestic and international policy considerations.

“Trump will regret owning this deal. It will either fail or succeed under his leadership, and it cannot rely solely on incentives,” remarked Aron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for both Republican and Democratic administrations, in an interview.

Trump 2.0

Trump’s return to the White House has already raised expectations in Israel.

A current US intelligence official said that individuals within the security establishment close to Netanyahu are considering the annexation of the Jordan Valley in the occupied West Bank, citing “security concerns.” This move could be strategically aligned with Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the valley.

The Jordan Valley borders the Jordan River, which acts as a boundary between the occupied West Bank and Jordan. This area is known for its fertility and potential for development.

Approximately 90 percent of the valley falls under Area C, indicating it is fully controlled by Israeli security forces, in contrast to Area A, where the Palestinian Authority is responsible for policing and administration.

This situation presents a challenge for Trump. While he may attempt to maintain Israel’s position in the ceasefire, he has already addressed the more straightforward issues during his previous term.

The United States acknowledged Israel’s annexation of the occupied Golan Heights and relocated its embassy to Jerusalem.

“This is not the same as Trump 1.0, where he took unilateral actions that had little effect on broader Middle Eastern policies. Those were isolated measures. Trump 2.0 is significantly more complex, as he will face pressure regarding the annexation of the West Bank and support for a potential Iranian nuclear strike,” Miller stated.

Additionally, Trump has shared videos on social media featuring economist Jeffrey Sachs, who criticized Netanyahu as a “deep, dark son of a bitch” for involving the US in “endless wars.”

Transition officials informed that Trump is preparing to intensify sanctions enforcement against Iran, and his usual nominees have adopted a tough stance on the Islamic Republic.

Nevertheless, Trump’s closest advisors have indicated a willingness to negotiate a deal.

Reports suggest that Elon Musk met with Iran’s ambassador to the UN.

Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, mentioned that they aim to address tensions surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program through diplomatic means.

Trump’s Retaliation?

Trump has already removed the Gaza ceasefire from his agenda.

If maintaining Netanyahu’s involvement in the agreement requires the annexation of the occupied West Bank, it could jeopardize his ambition to further the Abraham Accords and secure a Nobel Peace Prize.

“We will persist in promoting PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH across the region, leveraging the momentum from this ceasefire to broaden the Historic Abraham Accords,” Trump stated on Wednesday, referencing the 2020 normalization agreements between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.

The Biden administration attempted, but ultimately failed, to expand the Abraham Accords by including Saudi Arabia. The attack by Hamas on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, complicated these efforts. Riyadh has indicated that it requires tangible steps toward establishing a Palestinian state as a prerequisite for normalization.

Should Israel proceed with the annexation of significant portions of the occupied West Bank, it would complicate Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s commitment. He must consider whether his citizens will accept normalization with a nation he has publicly accused of “genocide.”

Trump’s leverage to ensure Netanyahu’s compliance in the agreement is the same tactic Biden opted not to employ during 15 months of conflict: the suspension of arms transfers.

Analysts suggest that, given Trump’s backing from evangelical Christians and pro-Israel lobbying groups, such a scenario is improbable.

Trump publicly clashed with Netanyahu following the latter’s acknowledgment of Biden’s election win, expressing his discontent by stating, “Fuck him (Netanyahu)” in response to the congratulations extended to his rival.

Currently, Netanyahu must navigate his position as Israel’s prime minister after agreeing to a ceasefire. Far-right minister Ben Gvir has indicated he will resign once the agreement is ratified, while Smotrich has threatened to step down if hostilities do not resume after the initial phase. Should these threats materialize, Netanyahu could be left with a minority government or be compelled to call for new elections.

The ultimate irony for Trump lies in the fact that the agreement he pressured Netanyahu into accepting now jeopardizes his own political future.