Trump’s Greenland proposal has ignited discussions in China about Taiwan strategy

For many years, the U.S. government has called on China to exercise “restraint” regarding its claims over Taiwan and to refrain from military threats aimed at asserting control over the democratically governed island. Recently, some Chinese commentators argue that the effectiveness of this longstanding U.S. message has been weakened by President-elect Donald Trump‘s aggressive rhetoric about potentially seizing Greenland and the Panama Canal, even by force if necessary. Trump is set to assume office on January 20.

The ramifications of Trump’s statements for U.S. policy concerning Taiwan have been a topic of extensive discussion on Chinese social media and among foreign policy experts. While it is unlikely that the military situation surrounding Taiwan will change in the immediate future, some analysts suggest that Trump’s departure from traditional American diplomatic practices could present an opportunity for China.

Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, emphasized the seriousness of Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, the Panama Canal, and even Canada. He noted, “In addition, we must consider Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, which he takes seriously. Many in China still view Trump as a negotiator, even on complex issues such as Taiwan.”

China’s foreign ministry described attempts to associate Greenland’s status with Taiwan as “absurd.” In a statement provided to Reuters, the ministry emphasized that the Taiwan issue is a domestic concern for China, asserting that the resolution lies solely with the Chinese populace.

In response to inquiries about whether Trump’s remarks might encourage China to escalate tensions regarding Taiwan, Taiwan’s foreign ministry reiterated that the Republic of China, the island’s official designation, is a “sovereign and independent country.”

The ministry added that any misrepresentation of Taiwan’s sovereign status will not alter the existing situation in the Taiwan Strait. The Trump transition team has not yet responded to requests for comments on this matter.

China continues to assert that Taiwan is part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to assert control over the island. A significant consideration for Beijing is the U.S. legal obligation to supply Taiwan with defensive capabilities, although the extent to which U.S. forces would intervene in a conflict with China remains uncertain due to a policy of “strategic ambiguity.”

During his first term, Trump expressed strong support for Taiwan, including regular arms sales. However, he suggested during last year’s campaign that Taiwan should financially contribute to its defense. Taiwan has consistently stated its commitment to increasing defense expenditures.

The situation regarding Taiwan is fundamentally distinct from the cases of Greenland, Canada, or the Panama Canal. From China’s perspective, Taiwan is already considered a part of its territory, destined to be “returned to the motherland,” a claim that Taiwan firmly disputes.

Trump’s remarks about Greenland have sparked significant discussion on Chinese social media, which operates under strict censorship. Wang Jiangyu, a law professor at City University of Hong Kong, expressed on the microblogging platform Weibo, “If the United States were to annex Greenland, China must take Taiwan.”

A commentator on a Baidu blog suggested that if Trump proceeds with his plans for Greenland, China should “seize the opportunity to reclaim Taiwan.” Another user, under the pseudonym “Hongtu Shumeng,” remarked, “Trump appears to be serious, so we should also consider what we might gain from this situation.”

Chen Fei, an associate professor at Central China Normal University’s School of Politics and International Studies, noted on the Chinese news portal NetEase that, similar to Greenland for Trump, Taiwan represents a vital security interest for China. However, he emphasized that the two matters are not equivalent, as Trump’s actions pose a direct threat to another nation’s sovereignty. “Taiwan is an intrinsic part of China and a purely internal issue. It is unrelated to the sovereignty of other countries.”

Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan specialist at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, indicated that for Chinese President Xi Jinping, other considerations hold more significance, particularly his evaluation of China’s military strength and the potential repercussions of using force against Taiwan. She remarked, “I doubt that Beijing will draw parallels between Greenland and Taiwan. The Chinese view Taiwan as an integral part of China and would not consider purchasing it; no Taiwanese government would consent to such an arrangement.”

Drew Thompson, a Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and a former U.S. Department of Defense official, expressed skepticism about the notion that Trump’s comments regarding Greenland could strengthen China’s claims over Taiwan. He noted, “However, if President Trump were to refuse to dismiss the possibility of using military force to safeguard U.S. interests, such a stance could serve as a significant deterrent to Beijing, discouraging any actions that might provoke a U.S. military response to defend Taiwan.” He concluded, “That would represent a formidable deterrent for China.”