The United States has informed Lebanese officials that Saudi Arabia is willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into the reconstruction of Lebanon, contingent upon the election of Lebanese army commander Joseph Aoun as president, according to a senior Arab official and a former senior US official speaking to Middle East Eye.
During his visit to Lebanon on Monday, US envoy Amos Hochstein emphasized this potential financial support while advocating for Aoun, engaging with key figures including Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri.
Aoun has already garnered the backing of Lebanon’s Sunni Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
“The Americans are firmly committed. They do not support any candidate other than Aoun,” stated the senior Arab official. “Hochstein has linked Aoun’s election to Saudi Arabia’s financial backing for Lebanon’s reconstruction.”
The Lebanese parliament is scheduled to conduct presidential elections on January 9, although previous attempts have faced delays.
This election is particularly significant, as it coincides with ongoing negotiations for the renewal of a 60-day ceasefire that concluded intense hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, with a deadline approaching on January 26.
It has been widely acknowledged within Beirut’s political landscape that the US favors Aoun for the presidency, a position that has remained unfilled since 2022. Traditionally, the presidency is held by a Maronite Christian, with Jihad Azour, a senior banker at the International Monetary Fund, also viewed as a pro-US alternative.
The US advocates for Aoun’s presidency, believing his military background will be crucial for enforcing the ceasefire, according to both current and former officials.
With Hezbollah in a weakened state, Lebanese and American officials are optimistic that Israel and Lebanon could officially establish their borders following an Israeli withdrawal, as noted by the Arab official.
The current strength of the U.S. initiative to support Aoun is significantly enhanced by the involvement of Saudi Arabia, aiming to restore the kingdom’s position as the primary Sunni powerbroker in Lebanon.
Saudi Arabia’s Historical Influence in Lebanon
Historically, Saudi Arabia has played a pivotal role in Lebanon’s post-civil war reconstruction, notably through the Taif Agreement reached nearly thirty years ago.
Following the 2006 conflict, Saudi Arabia committed $500 million for Lebanon’s reconstruction, and affluent Saudis invested in luxury properties in Beirut.
However, in 2008, the limitations of Saudi influence became evident when Hezbollah outmaneuvered Sunni factions during violent confrontations, prompted by the Lebanese government’s attempts to curb Hezbollah’s power.
In 2017, Saudi Arabia’s frustration with then-Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s inability to counter Hezbollah’s influence led to his detention.
For a time, it seemed that Saudi Arabia had largely abandoned Lebanon. With Hariri stepping away from politics to join the UAE royal family, the kingdom lost its key Sunni partner.
In recent years, Riyadh has remained largely passive as Lebanon faced a severe economic crisis, with its currency plummeting over 90 percent and a catastrophic explosion devastating Beirut’s port. In 2021, Saudi Arabia imposed a ban on all imports from Lebanon.
Saudi Arabia’s willingness to reengage highlights the significant shifts in the regional landscape following Hamas’s attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. This event has disrupted the existing balance of power, leaving Iran considerably weakened while bolstering Israel’s position.
On Sunday, Hochstein met with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan in Riyadh.
According to a former US official briefed on the discussions, “The Saudis and Americans concurred that Hezbollah’s miscalculations have created a rare opportunity, one not seen in thirty years, to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty.”
Hochstein prioritized his visit to Riyadh before heading to Beirut to confirm Saudi Arabia’s commitment to the reconstruction funds he intended to secure, as noted by an Arab official. The meeting with bin Farhan reassured American officials of Saudi Arabia’s seriousness, allowing Hochstein to approach Aoun’s lobbying efforts in Beirut with confidence.
For Hochstein, facilitating Aoun’s election as president holds personal significance. He played a crucial role in mediating a maritime demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel in 2022 and was instrumental in negotiating a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel in November.
Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon?
Initially, the US sought to restrict Israel’s military actions in Lebanon but shifted its stance to support its ally’s invasion after Israel executed an unprecedented strike on Hezbollah’s communication infrastructure and assassinated its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in September.
The ceasefire facilitated by the United States reaffirmed previous UN Security Council resolutions that demand Hezbollah’s complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon and its eventual disarmament. In contrast to the ceasefire established in 2006, the November agreement includes a provision that allows the US to support Israel in unilaterally addressing violations by Hezbollah.
This ceasefire has also expanded the US’s involvement in Lebanon by establishing a committee made up of representatives from Israel, Lebanon, France, and the US, along with a UN official to oversee violations. The committee is led by US Major General Jasper Jeffers.
Israeli forces are expected to retreat from the areas of southern Lebanon they currently occupy, with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN peacekeepers stepping in to fill the void.
On Monday, the LAF commenced positioning itself in the southern Lebanese border town of Naqoura, following the third Israeli withdrawal from the region since the ceasefire was enacted.
Both the UN and the Lebanese government have urged Israel to expedite its withdrawal. Israel did not enter Naqoura until after the ceasefire was implemented.
“These withdrawals will persist until all Israeli forces have completely exited Lebanon, as the Lebanese army continues to deploy southward to the Blue Line,” Hochstein stated on Monday.
“I have every reason to believe that all parties involved will remain dedicated to fulfilling the agreement they have reached,” he added later.
One of the obstacles to executing the agreement is the Lebanese military’s insufficient funding.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the LAF’s total expenditure last year was $241 million, with US aid constituting approximately half of that amount. The US has committed to providing additional financial support to the LAF as part of the ceasefire, which includes funding for the recruitment of more soldiers and the purchase of equipment such as Humvees necessary for border patrols.
On Monday, Reuters reported that the US informed Congress of its decision to reallocate $95 million in military funds originally designated for Egypt to the LAF.
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