During his visit to Moscow in early July, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi characterized Russia as New Delhi’s “trusted ally” and “all-weather friend,” highlighting the long-standing strategic partnership between the two countries.

However, this relationship is now facing scrutiny, particularly following reports that Kyiv has obtained Indian ammunition for use in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. An investigation by Reuters indicates that Indian shells, purchased by Italy and the Czech Republic, have been redirected to Ukraine. This revelation comes in light of various images from the battlefield in recent months, which show Ukrainian forces utilizing Indian ammunition in their efforts against Russia.

In the meantime, Modi has engaged in several discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, starting with a meeting in Tokyo in June, followed by a historic visit to Kyiv in August, and most recently, a meeting in New York during the United Nations General Assembly.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, dismissed the reports of Ukrainian forces using Indian ammunition as “speculative and mischievous.” He asserted that India has not breached any regulations but did not explicitly deny the existence of Indian shells within Ukraine’s military supplies.

Nevertheless, Russian officials remain skeptical of India’s stance and raise a critical question: Has New Delhi taken steps to ensure that its ammunition does not end up in the conflict in Ukraine?

A Russian official, speaking anonymously to Al Jazeera, stated, “There is substantial evidence that Ukrainian forces are utilizing Indian artillery shells, supported by photographs.” He highlighted the end-user agreements that accompany military exports, which are designed to ensure sellers can monitor the final recipients of their weapons. “Provide us with evidence that India has inquired with Italy or Czechia regarding the transfer of these shells to Ukraine,” the official added, referring to the Czech Republic.

If Indian ammunition is indeed reaching Ukraine, it would not be an isolated case of Indian weaponry being deployed in ongoing conflicts. In June, Al Jazeera reported that rockets and explosives produced by Indian manufacturers were being sent to Israel during the ongoing war in Gaza, which has resulted in over 41,000 fatalities.

Furthermore, if these shells are arriving in Ukraine via third-party nations—without India’s direct intention—this scenario is not without precedent, according to Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu, a professor at New York University’s Center for Global Affairs.

“During the apartheid era, British-made Centurion tanks from India, which were sent for repairs to a British firm, ended up in South Africa,” Sidhu noted in his comments to Al Jazeera.

Analysts also suggest that India may have assessed that it can navigate the potential strain on its relationship with Russia resulting from the use of Indian shells by Ukraine.

India, historically a prominent arms importer, has shifted its focus towards exporting, with $3 billion worth of weapons sold from 2018 to 2023 as part of its initiative to enhance domestic defense manufacturing under Prime Minister Modi’s leadership.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has significantly benefited the Indian defense sector. Exports from three companies—Munitions India, Yantra, and Kalyani Strategic Systems—to Italy and the Czech Republic surged from $2.8 million to $135.24 million between 2022 and 2024.

Christopher Clary, an assistant professor of political science at the University at Albany, State University of New York, noted, “As India increases its arms exports globally, it will face the challenging reality that arms importers may not always act in accordance with the exporter’s intentions and may even engage in actions that seem to violate the original restrictions set by the exporter.”

Additionally, some reports indicate that Indian electronics sent to Russia are being utilized for military purposes.

Sidhu remarked, “If this is indeed the situation, then India is effectively acting as a supplier to both parties, reminiscent of Milo Minderbinder from Catch-22, who profits by catering to both sides of a conflict.”

Some analysts contend that Ukraine’s utilization of Indian ammunition is unlikely to significantly disrupt New Delhi’s longstanding and robust relationship with Moscow, which has been established through close collaboration during the Cold War era. Over the last twenty years, approximately two-thirds of India’s arms acquisitions have originated from Russia, even as New Delhi has sought to reduce its military reliance on Moscow.

Current estimates indicate that Indian munitions constitute only about 1 percent of Ukraine’s total ammunition requirements in its conflict with Russia.

Clary remarked to Al Jazeera that, considering the relatively small volume of ammunition being supplied, the impact on India’s foreign relations is expected to be limited and manageable.

However, a Russian official who spoke with Al Jazeera interpreted the situation differently. The official noted that shortly after his visit to Kyiv in August, Modi reached out to U.S. President Joe Biden to discuss his discussions with Zelenskyy, but did not extend a similar communication to Putin, who subsequently initiated a call to Modi.

Following this, Modi dispatched India’s National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval, to Moscow to inform Putin about the Indian Prime Minister’s meeting with Zelenskyy. The Kremlin subsequently released footage of Doval attempting to convince a skeptical Putin of the benefits of Modi’s visit to Kyiv, highlighting the growing tension in India-Russia relations.

At home, leaders of the opposition Congress party are accusing Prime Minister Modi of undermining historically strong ties with Moscow due to pressure from the United States. Congress leader Rashid Alvi stated to Al Jazeera, “The Indian Prime Minister was compelled to travel to Kyiv via a bulletproof train under U.S. influence, which seeks to sever New Delhi’s longstanding relationship with Russia. If Indian arms are being sent to Ukraine, it is also a result of U.S. manipulation.”

According to Sidhu, a professor at NYU, the more critical issue than the limited quantity of Indian shells reportedly arriving in Ukraine is the underlying reason why the Czech Republic and Italy may be supplying this ammunition to Zelenskyy’s forces.

“It indicates that their production capabilities are strained, and they are eager to provide Ukraine with supplies by any means necessary,” he remarked. “This mirrors the situation in 2011-12 when NATO faced shortages of bombs and weapons for use in Libya; evidently, the conflict in Ukraine has put a strain on weapon supplies among Western allies.”

In February, the German newspaper Der Spiegel reported that Germany was negotiating with India to procure ammunition for Ukraine. The German Embassy in New Delhi declined to comment on the matter.

In the meantime, India has sought to portray Modi’s repeated meetings with both Zelenskyy and Putin—his second visit to Russia in three months is scheduled for October during the BRICS summit—as part of New Delhi’s initiative to facilitate peace between Moscow and Kyiv.

Clary expressed that he does not anticipate a minor supply of Indian shells to Ukraine through third countries to hinder peace negotiations. However, he is skeptical about Modi’s ability to facilitate a resolution.

“The issue lies in the fact that both nations believe they can fulfill their war objectives through military engagement. I doubt that Modi’s mediation can resolve this dilemma,” Clary remarked.

Despite India’s recent gestures towards Ukraine, Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, the founder and president of the Goa-based Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies, noted that New Delhi’s historically strong relationship with Moscow undermines its role as a neutral mediator. “India’s deep-rooted connections with Russia cast doubt on its impartiality,” she stated in an interview with Al Jazeera.

She concurred that, despite Modi’s initiatives, neither Russia nor Ukraine seems inclined towards peace at this time. “The conflict is currently at a complicated juncture, with both parties resolute in pursuing a military solution,” she explained. “Presently, it appears there is little opportunity for a peacemaker.”

What is available, however, are opportunities for arms sales, including ‘Made in India’ shells being utilized on the front lines.