The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States marks a pivotal moment in the nation’s history, underscoring a profound internal struggle within American society.

This election cycle proved to be particularly arduous, exposing profound societal rifts and a populace fatigued by conventional political frameworks. It was a defining moment where not only national leadership was in question, but also the country’s diminishing global stature.

The interest surrounding the American election extended well beyond its borders. Observers, ranging from allies to adversaries and from political analysts to everyday citizens, monitored the developments with great attention. Although Washington’s dominance may be on the decline, its influence continues to resonate across various global regions. The United States’ involvement is evident in numerous international conflicts, including those in Ukraine and Gaza. The global community was acutely aware that the election’s outcome would have significant implications for strategic decisions worldwide.

On the home front, Trump’s policies during his initial term became representative of a movement towards reinforcing traditional American values and implementing considerable reforms. He took office with commitments to rejuvenate the nation’s economy and strengthen its borders, leading to a significant tightening of immigration regulations and an emphasis on bolstering domestic industries. Trump ardently championed the principle of ‘America First’, underscoring the necessity of prioritizing American interests.

On the global front, the Trump administration aimed to bolster US influence, albeit under revised conditions. He adopted a stringent stance towards international organizations, reassessing membership criteria and openly criticizing established alliances like NATO. Trump consistently showcased his willingness to engage in negotiations with determination and vigor, prioritizing US interests even when it strained relationships with traditional allies.

What can we anticipate from Trump this time, particularly concerning Middle East policy? Was his resurgence expected in the region, or has his return to the American political landscape raised concerns and unease?

Reactions to Trump’s return have been mixed

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed Trump’s reentry into the White House with enthusiasm. Given the escalating internal pressures and complex border issues with Gaza and Lebanon, strong collaboration with the US is crucial for Israel’s strategic position. Domestic protests and an ongoing conflict with Palestine have led to growing dissatisfaction among Israelis, while the international community is increasingly critical of Israeli policies.

During Trump’s previous administration, Israel secured significant diplomatic achievements: the recognition of Jerusalem as its capital, the relocation of the US Embassy, acknowledgment of sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. These actions greatly enhanced Israel’s status, creating new economic and political avenues and allowing Netanyahu to strengthen his domestic support.

With Trump’s reemergence, Israel perceives a renewed opportunity for substantial support, which is crucial for regional stability and countering Iran’s influence. The Israeli administration expects consistent collaboration and is prepared to enhance its strategic partnership with the United States to fulfill long-term goals.

Trump’s return has elicited notable enthusiasm among prominent Middle Eastern leaders. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have all welcomed the development. Erdogan, in particular, highlighted his admiration for Trump, referring to him as a “dear friend” and extending an invitation for an official visit to Türkiye, indicating a strong bond and a promising outlook for increased bilateral cooperation.

For leaders in the Middle East, the Biden administration has presented several challenges. The focus on human rights and social reforms often conflicted with the priorities and values of these nations. Biden’s perceived critical and interventionist stance heightened scrutiny on issues like women’s rights, freedom of expression, and political transparency, complicating matters for the governments of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Türkiye.

Trump’s return provides regional leaders with the prospect of a more pragmatic U.S. policy that prioritizes shared economic and strategic interests. They anticipate an approach that is less constrained by rigid expectations and moralistic rhetoric, allowing for a concentrated effort on essential areas of collaboration, including security, economic development, and common regional challenges.

However, not all Middle Eastern nations are pleased with Trump’s return. Alongside supporters of the Democratic Party, there is disappointment in Iran, where there were hopes that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would win and facilitate a thaw in relations with Washington. With Trump’s comeback, Iranian authorities recognize that the likelihood of renewed diplomacy is slim.

During Trump’s initial term from 2016 to 2020, he established himself as one of Iran’s most formidable opponents. In 2018, he exited the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal, which had placed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for relief from sanctions. Labeling the agreement as “inadequate,” Trump enacted stringent economic sanctions that severely impacted the Iranian economy, crippling its oil sector and financial institutions. This action plunged Iran into a significant economic crisis and led Tehran to gradually forsake its commitments under the JCPOA, further deteriorating diplomatic relations. With Trump’s potential return, Iran is acutely aware that hopes of reviving the deal are unrealistic and anticipates an escalation in sanctions.

However, the challenges facing Tehran extend beyond economic concerns. Israel, Iran’s primary regional rival, stands to gain a renewed strategic advantage with Trump’s reemergence, enhancing its security posture against Iran. Throughout his first term, Trump strengthened relations with Israel, backing its efforts to counter Iranian influence through intelligence sharing, security collaboration, and strategic support, which empowered Israel to adopt a more aggressive approach. With Trump’s return, Israel secures a formidable ally, potentially leading its authorities to intensify confrontations with Iran, confident that their actions will likely receive backing from Washington.

For Tehran, Israel’s bolstered position poses a significant threat. With the prospect of increased U.S. support, Israel may escalate its military actions against Iranian assets in Syria or broaden its operations against Iranian infrastructure in the region to diminish Iran’s influence. Iranian leaders are acutely aware that a new Trump administration could herald another phase of confrontation and heightened conflict, with Israel, supported by the U.S., taking an even more assertive and aggressive approach.

In Qatar, the prospect of Trump’s return to the presidency raises significant concerns, particularly in light of previous events during his administration. In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt cut diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing it of terrorism support and enforcing an economic blockade. These measures had profound economic and political repercussions for Qatar, leading to its regional isolation.

The involvement of the Trump administration in this crisis has been scrutinized. Trump openly backed Saudi Arabia and its allies, alleging that Qatar was a major financier of terrorism. In June 2017, he remarked that “Qatar, unfortunately, has historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level.” This position from the US intensified pressure on Doha and complicated diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the situation.

Given this context, Qatar approaches Trump’s potential return to power with caution. The government is concerned about the possibility of a repeat of previous policies that could result in renewed isolation and increased regional tensions. Qatar aspires for a more balanced US approach that fosters stability and cooperation in the Persian Gulf.

What might Trump’s new policy towards the Middle East entail?

During his previous term, Trump exhibited a distinctive and assertive strategy in the Middle East, characterized by bold initiatives and a significant shift from conventional US diplomatic norms in the region. While his new administration is still taking shape, his past actions, public statements, and campaign rhetoric offer insights into how he may influence Middle Eastern policy in a possible second term.

One fundamental aspect of Trump’s policy has been his steadfast support for Israel. Throughout his first term, he officially recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, relocated the US embassy there, and affirmed Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. These actions reinforced his commitment to enhancing US-Israeli relations and strengthening Israel’s standing in the region. In light of the persistent tensions in Gaza and the potential for escalations in Lebanon, it is likely that Trump would maintain his diplomatic and military backing for Israel, portraying Israeli operations against Hamas and Hezbollah as vital for self-defense. Nevertheless, his pragmatic approach might prompt him to advocate for restraint if conflicts threaten US interests, particularly if civilian casualties attract international criticism.

Another significant component of Trump’s strategy in the Middle East could involve a renewed ‘maximum pressure’ campaign targeting Iran. This strategy would likely focus on intensifying sanctions to further limit Iran’s regional influence and economic capabilities. Trump views Iran as a primary destabilizing force in the area, and a second term could see an increase in military and intelligence support for US allies, including Israel and Gulf states, to counteract Iranian influence. Furthermore, Trump may pursue new diplomatic agreements with Arab nations, akin to the Abraham Accords, aimed at forming a more robust regional coalition to diplomatically and economically isolate Iran. This strategy could be complemented by a sustained military presence in the Persian Gulf, serving as a deterrent against Iranian aggression.

During his initial term, Trump placed a strong emphasis on fostering relationships with pivotal Arab allies, notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These countries valued Trump’s transactional diplomatic style, which prioritized strategic and economic interests over issues related to human rights and social reforms. Trump regarded Saudi Arabia and the UAE as crucial allies in the effort to counter Iran and enhance regional stability. This alignment led to substantial arms agreements and economic collaborations, including Saudi Arabia’s acquisition of billions in U.S. military equipment, which strengthened its defense capabilities amid escalating regional tensions.

In a potential second term, Trump is expected to maintain and further develop these alliances, focusing on defense collaboration, counterterrorism efforts, and economic partnerships. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed cultivated a strong rapport with Trump, perceiving him as a supporter of their security objectives without imposing demands for internal changes. Trump’s emphasis on economic relations is likely to result in further agreements in sectors such as energy, defense, and infrastructure, which would be advantageous for both parties and reflect his pragmatic, interest-driven approach to foreign policy.

However, these alliances could complicate relations with Iran, as both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are dedicated to curbing Iranian influence in the region. Trump’s close ties with these Gulf nations may encourage them to adopt more assertive positions against Iranian activities in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. His backing could also empower them to confront Iranian-supported groups, like the Houthis in Yemen. Nevertheless, Trump might also promote a level of restraint, particularly if escalating conflicts threaten the stability of oil markets, which are crucial to the global economy.

Turkey’s relationship with Trump during his initial term was characterized by a nuanced blend of collaboration and friction. Erdogan fostered a personal connection with Trump, despite the diplomatic strains arising from issues like U.S. support for Kurdish groups in Syria and Turkey’s acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems, which resulted in Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program. Nevertheless, the personal rapport between Trump and Erdogan enabled them to address several contentious matters, with Trump frequently adopting a pragmatic stance that helped to de-escalate tensions.

In a potential second term, Trump may maintain this delicate equilibrium with Turkey. Erdogan regards Trump as an ally and has expressed optimism that his return will enhance U.S.-Turkey cooperation, particularly in counterterrorism and economic matters. Trump’s strategy may include ongoing economic engagement, which Erdogan appreciates, along with a more lenient approach to human rights issues that Erdogan perceives as intrusive. However, Trump’s close ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE could create friction, as Turkey has often found itself at odds with Gulf policies, especially in contexts like Libya and Qatar, where Turkish interests conflict with those of the Saudi-UAE coalition.

1. Considering Türkiye’s strategic position and its membership in NATO, Trump may aim to keep the country aligned with US interests by emphasizing collaboration rather than conflict. Nevertheless, his perspective on Kurdish forces in Syria could pose a challenge, as Erdogan perceives these militias as a security risk, while Trump might regard them as crucial allies in the fight against ISIS. Addressing these complexities will necessitate a careful balancing act between US objectives in Syria and Iraq and fostering a constructive relationship with Erdogan. Additionally, Trump may look into opportunities for economic collaboration, recognizing Türkiye’s significance in regional energy initiatives and as a potential economic partner.

In summary, Trump’s Middle East strategy is likely to focus on strengthening alliances that align with US economic and security goals while maintaining a firm stance against Iran. His partnerships with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE could form a coalition aimed at countering Iranian influence throughout the region. Trump’s inclination towards economic cooperation may facilitate deeper integration among Gulf states and lead to new agreements similar to the Abraham Accords, which seek to enhance economic relations and diplomatic normalization.

Conversely, Trump’s strategy could also escalate regional tensions. Iran might respond aggressively to heightened sanctions and the strengthening of US ties with Gulf states and Israel, potentially leading to increased instability in areas like Yemen and Syria. Türkiye’s regional aspirations may also conflict with those of other US allies, posing challenges in achieving a cohesive regional strategy. However, Trump’s pragmatic approach and emphasis on transactional diplomacy could open pathways for negotiation and de-escalation, especially if his administration remains adaptable on tactical matters.

Trump’s potential second term may focus on a Middle Eastern policy that strengthens alliances with Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and possibly new regional partners, all designed to counter Iran’s influence while safeguarding economic and security interests. His connections with prominent leaders like Netanyahu, Mohammed bin Salman, and Erdogan could influence a strategy that prioritizes regional collaborations and transactional diplomacy rather than conventional alliances, emphasizing stability, economic development, and U.S. strategic objectives.