At 4:00 AM local time on November 27, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was officially initiated. This pivotal development was facilitated by the mediation efforts of the United States and France, which crafted and proposed a plan for conflict resolution.

The agreement includes detailed measures aimed at stabilizing southern Lebanon, where fierce confrontations had been occurring between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the militant group Hezbollah.

Under the terms of the agreement, the Lebanese Army is tasked with deploying throughout the southern regions within the next 60 days, effectively displacing Hezbollah’s forces and dismantling their infrastructure. Hezbollah is required to retreat north of the Litani River, situated approximately 20–30 kilometers from the Israeli border at various locations.

This arrangement seeks to create a security zone devoid of Hezbollah’s armed presence, thereby reducing tensions along the border. In return, Israel has pledged to completely withdraw its military presence from Lebanese territory, a process that will occur in phases under international oversight.

Additionally, the agreement establishes a special international committee responsible for monitoring the implementation of these terms. The United States, which has taken a prominent role in ensuring stability and compliance with the ceasefire, will chair this committee. Washington has also committed to supporting Israel in the face of potential threats from Lebanese territory, providing both direct military assistance and proactive measures to prevent the reemergence of Hezbollah’s military capabilities in southern Lebanon.

What does the future hold for Lebanon?

The ceasefire agreement, while providing temporary respite and an opportunity for regional stabilization, may instigate intricate internal political dynamics within Lebanon. A significant challenge is the diminishing power of Hezbollah, one of the nation’s most prominent political and military entities, which could spark a power struggle among various political factions and groups. Given that Lebanon is already grappling with one of the most severe crises in its recent history, these internal conflicts could escalate into a serious confrontation.

Lebanon’s economic landscape remains dire. The financial system is largely in disarray, the national currency continues to lose value, and access to essential goods and services is critically restricted. In the midst of this turmoil, the central governance institutions have significantly weakened, as demonstrated by the prolonged failure to elect a new president. The lack of decisive leadership and stable governance has fostered an environment ripe for increased political fragmentation and conflict among different factions.

For many years, Hezbollah has been a pivotal force, not only as a military entity but also as a key player in Lebanon’s political arena. It has offered social and economic initiatives, often stepping in where state services have fallen short in certain areas. However, the erosion of Hezbollah’s influence due to the ceasefire agreement with Israel—marked by its withdrawal from southern regions and restrictions on its activities—opens the door for other political entities to assert themselves, potentially leading to intense competition for power and resources.

The reduced influence of Hezbollah may create opportunities for other Lebanese political entities and movements, including Future Movement, Kataeb, the Lebanese Forces, Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Amal, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and Marada, to compete for dominance. In the absence of a strong leadership presence in southern Lebanon and amid ongoing political turmoil, these groups may attempt to assert their positions, intensifying internal conflicts.

Historically, Lebanon’s political elite has been fragmented along sectarian lines, with power struggles among these factions being a significant source of discord. The decline of Hezbollah will require a reassessment of the current political equilibrium, presenting further obstacles to coalition formation and consensus within both the parliament and the government. As the economic crisis continues to weigh heavily on the populace, escalating political tensions could potentially lead to direct confrontations.

Given Lebanon’s historically tense relations among sectarian communities, the likelihood of renewed civil strife remains considerable. The weakening of Hezbollah might be viewed by its supporters as a threat to the security of the Shia community, which could result in radicalization and heightened tensions with other factions. Concurrently, Sunni and Christian groups may take advantage of this situation to enhance their influence, further exacerbating conflicts.

International stakeholders, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France, the United States, and others, are expected to increase their involvement, further complicating the internal dynamics. Lebanon faces the risk of entering a new era of civil instability, where the competing interests of both domestic and external actors could lead to open conflict.

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon may offer short-term relief to the affected populations and diminish Hezbollah’s military influence in the southern region. However, it also poses the risk of intensifying internal political strife.

Lebanon is currently grappling with a severe economic crisis, fragile state institutions, and profound sectarian divides, which heighten the risk of a deepening political crisis or the resurgence of civil unrest. The future stability of the nation will largely hinge on the ability of Lebanese leaders to reach compromises, as well as on international efforts to bolster state institutions and provide economic support.

What implications does this have for Israel?

The ceasefire has led to notable political consequences within Israel, especially for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Although the agreement has eased tensions along the northern border and provided a temporary sense of stability, it should not be regarded as an outright success for Netanyahu. While the truce has prevented further casualties and economic repercussions, it has also ignited vigorous discussions within the political sphere, raising questions about the effectiveness of Israeli leadership’s approach.

The anticipated return of Donald Trump to the White House has been instrumental in achieving the ceasefire. Trump’s electoral success has notably influenced the international landscape surrounding these developments. Mike Waltz, who is set to become Trump’s National Security Advisor, indicated that the ceasefire was a direct consequence of shifts in U.S. foreign policy following the Republican victory. This situation highlights the significant role of American diplomacy in shaping Israeli policy and illustrates the strong link between political changes in Washington and events in the Middle East. It seems that Israel’s leadership has made concessions due to U.S. pressure, as Washington aims for a more measured approach to regional conflicts.

The ceasefire agreement has sparked division among Israeli politicians and ignited intense discussions. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir labeled the truce with Lebanon as a “historic mistake,” arguing that it undermines the primary goal of the war: ensuring Israel’s long-term security. He contends that the ceasefire signals weakness, potentially encouraging Hezbollah and other adversarial groups to maintain their pressure on Israel.

Public sentiment in Israel is also polarized. Many citizens express relief at the end of hostilities and the chance to return to normalcy. Conversely, a substantial segment of the population worries that the government’s indecisiveness may lead to future threats. Concerns about possible provocations from Hezbollah and skepticism regarding the current leadership’s capability to effectively address such challenges have fostered a tense environment within society.

A survey conducted on Tuesday indicated that more than 80% of Netanyahu’s supporters are against the agreement. Residents in northern Israel, many of whom have been displaced from their homes, have also voiced their discontent. Nationally, public opinion appears divided: one poll found that 37% of Israelis favor the ceasefire, while 32% oppose it, and 31% remain undecided.

The ceasefire with Lebanon may significantly undermine Netanyahu’s standing in domestic politics. Although the prime minister claims that the truce is essential for civilian protection and stability, this rationale has not swayed his detractors. Pressure from far-right factions could diminish his support among conservative voters, who are calling for a more aggressive approach to security matters.

The opposition is poised to leverage this situation to intensify pressure on the government, advocating for new elections and asserting that Netanyahu is unable to protect national interests. Given the ongoing political turmoil that has affected Israel in recent years, this agreement could hinder Netanyahu’s chances of maintaining his role as prime minister. He is confronted with a challenging situation: reconciling international expectations with domestic calls for more assertive measures, which renders his political future precarious.

Expert assessments regarding the ceasefire are also mixed. Some analysts contend that the agreement was a crucial move to avert the conflict from escalating into a larger crisis, which could have led to significant casualties on both sides. Conversely, others warn that a temporary ceasefire without a definitive plan for subsequent actions merely delays the issue. Hezbollah might take advantage of this pause to bolster its capabilities, leaving the current scenario unstable and uncertain.

While the ceasefire with Lebanon momentarily alleviates tensions along Israel’s northern border, it simultaneously intensifies internal political rifts and raises questions about Netanyahu’s political future. As pressure mounts from both far-right factions and the opposition, his capacity to uphold political stability and maintain voter trust will be significantly challenged in the upcoming months. The combination of internal strife and external pressures from the United States adds further complexity to the already volatile landscape of Israeli politics.

The establishment of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon marks a crucial move towards reducing hostilities. However, the effectiveness of this agreement hinges on both parties’ commitment to its terms and the role of international oversight. In the weeks ahead, it will become evident whether this initiative can lay the groundwork for enduring peace or if it will merely serve as a temporary solution amid ongoing regional turmoil.

Additionally, the ceasefire could prove to be a destabilizing element for both countries, as it heightens internal conflicts. In Israel, a considerable segment of the population, including supporters of the government, expresses discontent with the concessions made, viewing them as a sign of weakness, which may lead to increased tensions and political instability.

In Lebanon, the potential weakening of Hezbollah could intensify rivalries among various political and armed groups, especially if they start competing for dominance in the emerging power vacuum. Rather than bringing stability, the ceasefire may inadvertently incite internal unrest, further complicating the socio-political landscape in both nations.