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JF-17 PFX Boosts Pakistan’s Deterrence Amid Regional Tensions

By
Anjum Nadeem
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JF-17 Block III

Last year, Pakistan launched its most ambitious airpower initiative to date with the JF-17 PFX (Pakistan Experimental Complex), a next-generation version of the JF-17 fighter platform aimed at countering India’s advancing aerial capabilities and liberating the nation from dependence on foreign defense suppliers.

Presented to the public at IDEAS 2024 in Karachi, the JF-17 PFX is envisioned as the cornerstone of Pakistan’s future air combat strategy, indicating a significant shift towards a self-sufficient, high-end defense industrial base.

This advanced 4.5-generation fighter is specifically designed to compete with—and potentially surpass—regional adversaries’ leading platforms such as India’s Tejas Mk2, Rafale, and the Su-30MKI in both beyond-visual-range (BVR) and within-visual-range (WVR) engagements.

Pakistan’s vision for the PFX is to achieve strategic parity in the subcontinent’s airspace, allowing the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) to maintain a credible deterrent advantage over India’s growing airpower capabilities, especially in light of the Rafale-BrahMos integration.
Senior Pakistani defense officials claim that the PFX project will attain operational readiness before the decade concludes, with the aircraft set to become a transformative element in the PAF’s long-term force structure.

A significant technological enhancement promised by the JF-17 PFX is its compatibility with a new generation of advanced air-to-air missiles (AAMs), including China’s state-of-the-art PL-17, which provides engagement ranges that were previously exclusive to fifth-generation platforms.

With a strike range of up to 400 kilometers, the PL-17 effectively doubles the maximum range of Western equivalents like the AIM-120D AMRAAM and MBDA Meteor, thereby redefining the BVR combat dynamics in South Asia.

Initially created for the J-20 “Mighty Dragon,” the PL-17—also referred to by its internal code PL-XX or “Project 180″—provides a revolutionary “first look, first shot, first kill” capability for targeting stealthy or high-value aerial threats. To fully leverage the PL-17’s combat capabilities, Pakistan may need to revamp the radar systems on its J-10C and future aircraft, enhancing existing AESA systems to meet the missile’s extensive targeting requirements.

The PL-17 utilizes an inertial navigation system (INS), GPS/Beidou positioning, an active AESA radar seeker for terminal guidance, and a mid-course data-link receiver—features that together facilitate high-confidence engagements at long ranges. The deployment of the PL-17 on Chinese J-10C fighters is already in progress, and its eventual integration into PAF platforms would significantly change the aerial dynamics of the India-Pakistan conflict landscape.

While the JF-17 PFX promises a significant advancement, it builds on the groundwork established by the JF-17 Block III, of which over 20 units have been delivered and production is nearing the 30-aircraft milestone. The Block III variant had its first flight in 2019 and began serial production in 2022, introducing substantial technological improvements that narrow the gap between fourth-generation aircraft and the emerging fifth-generation capabilities. Key upgrades in the Block III include the KLJ-7A AESA radar, Helmet Mounted Display and Sight (HMD/S), and a fully integrated electronic countermeasures (ECM) suite, all of which improve situational awareness and survivability in contested environments.

Its main armaments consist of the PL-15E long-range BVR missile, which is said to be capable of engaging targets beyond 200 kilometers, and the PL-10E high-off-boresight missile that utilizes HMD cueing for effective WVR combat.

In addition to its deadly capabilities, the Block III is said to be able to launch the “Taimur” air-launched cruise missile (ALCM), which can hit land and naval targets from a distance of up to 280 kilometers, thus serving as a credible standoff strike asset.

Experts have observed significant design similarities between the JF-17 Block III and the Chinese J-10C, with some sources indicating that the former integrates avionics and aerodynamic features that can be traced back to the stealth lineage of the J-20.

Nevertheless, the JF-17 PFX seeks to surpass mere evolutionary enhancements, marking Pakistan’s entry into the domain of strategic defense autonomy by developing the aircraft’s radar systems and essential components domestically.

This represents a notable departure from the traditional reliance on Chinese defense technology and positions Pakistan as a potential exporter of affordable, high-performance fighter solutions for the Global South, especially in regions like Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

Nations such as Myanmar, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Egypt have reportedly shown interest in PAF platforms, viewing them as practical alternatives to pricier Western fighters that are often limited by political conditions or export limitations.

On a doctrinal level, the PFX is anticipated to bolster Pakistan’s evolving strategy of distributed lethality, advanced electronic warfare, and potentially nuclear-capable second-strike delivery roles—transforming the PAF into a genuinely multidomain-ready force.

This transformation is also expected to heighten regional arms competition, with India fast-tracking its fifth-generation HAL AMCA program and improving its Rafale fleet’s weapons integration with Meteor and SCALP missiles.

The strategic deployment of the PFX aligns with a larger global trend in which developing nations are increasingly investing in their own military-industrial capabilities to circumvent traditional geopolitical limitations and sanctions.

In this scenario, the JF-17 PFX transcends being just a fighter jet; it serves as a significant geopolitical declaration—a representation of Pakistan’s determination to confront regional power structures, redefine military independence, and enhance its influence in the global defense landscape.

As the PFX initiative gains traction, Pakistan’s aspirations in defense aerospace now reach well beyond achieving parity with India, instead seeking a pivotal role in shaping the future of cost-effective, sovereign airpower in a multipolar world.

Choosing between the Rafale Killer 10C and the Eurofighter Typhoon will greatly impact Bangladesh’s regional strategy

By
Asif Shahid
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0

In a significant demonstration of strategic direction, the Chief of the Bangladesh Air Force, accompanied by a senior combat pilot, recently piloted a Eurofighter Typhoon outfitted with the Captor-E AESA radar system. This flight was part of a prominent evaluation organized by the Italian defense firm Leonardo.

The test flight highlights the ongoing importance of the Eurofighter in Bangladesh’s extended Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) initiative, which has drawn competitive proposals from China, France, and a European aerospace consortium. The involvement of Bangladesh’s leading air force official in the cockpit signifies a revitalized push for the Typhoon campaign, which had recently been overshadowed by the rising influence of China’s J-10C ‘Vigorous Dragon’ in Dhaka’s procurement considerations.

The Typhoon is now in direct competition with the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation’s J-10C, a 4.5-generation multirole fighter jet that has gained traction following its notable performance in recent conflicts between Pakistan and India. China’s strong defense relationship with Bangladesh—enhanced by arms transfers, joint military exercises, and political alignment—seems to have positioned Beijing favorably in Dhaka’s fighter jet selection process.

The J-10C’s recent combat record, including contentious claims of downing Indian Air Force Rafales, has further increased its attractiveness to Bangladeshi defense strategists looking for reliable combat capabilities at a reasonable price. Nevertheless, the Eurofighter Typhoon’s campaign has seen a resurgence amid widespread speculation that Dhaka may finalize a deal with Leonardo for a batch of Typhoons during Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s anticipated state visit to Bangladesh in August.

This development holds significant geopolitical implications, establishing a rare European presence in South Asia’s increasingly China-focused defense environment and providing Dhaka with an alternative to complete reliance on China. However, J-10C is still the top contender, highlighting its affordability, combat performance, and compatibility with the existing Chinese-origin aircraft in the Bangladesh Air Force.

During their visit, the Bangladeshi delegation toured Leonardo’s maintenance and logistics facilities for C-130J Super Hercules aircraft and received classified briefings on unmanned aerial systems and AgustaWestland rotary platforms. A source familiar with the program noted, ‘This flight represents another crucial milestone in an acquisition process that has spanned nearly a decade.’

In 2015, then-Air Chief Marshal Abu Esrar dismissed both Russian and Chinese fighters as strategically inadequate, prompting a formal search for a Western-made multirole combat aircraft to enhance deterrence against regional threats. Esrar’s vision took shape at the 2016 Farnborough International Airshow, where he thoroughly examined the Eurofighter Typhoon and received a comprehensive briefing on its operational and systems capabilities. By 2017, Bangladesh had officially initiated its MRCA program to modernize its aging fleet, indicating a strategic shift towards acquiring advanced air combat capabilities.

Dassault Aviation’s Rafale fighter has been presented to Bangladesh; however, its operational use by regional competitor India diminishes its attractiveness for Dhaka. Reports from local media indicate that the Bangladesh Air Force is expediting its decision-making process after observing the recent battlefield effectiveness of the J-10C during Pakistan’s critical engagements with India.

Sources claim that the Pakistan Air Force’s J-10C fighters have downed six Indian Air Force aircraft, including three Rafales, a MiG-29, a Mirage 2000, and a Su-30MKI, which has heightened interest in the J-10C as a cost-efficient alternative to advanced Western aircraft. Various reports suggest that Bangladesh intends to acquire 16 J-10C fighters in the first phase, aiming to replace its outdated F-7 interceptors while considering a second batch for long-term fleet standardization.

Air Chief Marshal Hasan Mahmud Khan has acknowledged the pressing need for Bangladesh to enhance its airpower, especially in strike and rotary capabilities. He stated, ‘We are diligently working to secure fighter jets and attack helicopters,’ a statement interpreted as a subtle indication of Dhaka’s interest in the Chinese offer.

Ongoing negotiations between Beijing and Dhaka are expected to lead to a significant enhancement of Bangladesh’s air superiority and deterrence capabilities through the potential acquisition of the J-10C. The aircraft’s appeal is largely attributed to its integration of AESA radar and the long-range PL-15 Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missile system, which reportedly has engagement ranges of 200 to 300 kilometers. The PL-15, developed with alleged assistance from Russian missile experts, is viewed as a direct competitor to the U.S.-made AIM-120 AMRAAM, highlighting the advancement of China’s missile technology capabilities.

In contrast to previous J-10 models that utilized Russian engines, the J-10C is equipped with the domestically produced WS-10C turbofan, enhancing its export potential and streamlining logistics and maintenance. Should Bangladesh finalize its purchase of the J-10C, it would signify a significant shift in the regional airpower dynamics, positioning advanced Chinese aircraft on both the eastern and western borders of India.

This development is likely to heighten the already tense geopolitical relations between Dhaka and New Delhi, which have been strained by the controversial political asylum granted to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in India and her subsequent exile.

In August 2023, Chinese media reported that Beijing had officially proposed the J-10C to Bangladesh as a direct substitute for its aging fleet of F-7s, which were also supplied by China. Pakistan’s introduction of 25 J-10C units in 2022 was intended to counter India’s acquisition of 36 Dassault Rafales, intensifying an arms race that is now influencing Bangladesh’s procurement decisions.

Defense analysts widely view the J-10C as a Chinese equivalent to the F-16, with its technological roots linked to Israel’s abandoned Lavi fighter project. If adopted, the J-10C’s sophisticated avionics, extended-range sensors, and multirole combat capabilities would significantly enhance the Bangladesh Air Force’s regional strike power and situational awareness.

More critically, this acquisition would position Bangladesh as the second South Asian nation to operate the ‘Rafale Killer,’ delivering a strong deterrent message to India and other regional players, including Myanmar. Ultimately, Dhaka’s decision will not only shape the future of its air force but could also redefine the strategic landscape of South Asia for the coming decade.

Flawless Kill Chain: U.S. Analyst Asserts Pakistan’s Coordinated Assault Brought Down Indian Fighter Jets

By
Anjum Nadeem
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Pakistani Air Force's Chengdu J-10C fighter

In a significant development that has sent shockwaves through strategic discussions in South Asia, a prominent American aerospace expert has pointed out that Pakistan‘s effective integration of Chinese-supplied weaponry and radar systems is a key element in its recent air dominance over India.

Michael Dahm, a Senior Fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, remarked in an interview with Air & Space Forces Magazine that Pakistan’s capability to create a cohesive ‘kill chain’ in combat scenarios has become a pivotal aspect of its air warfare strategy. Dahm stated, ‘Pakistan can seamlessly integrate ground-based radars with fighter jets and airborne early warning aircraft,’ highlighting the increasing operational sophistication of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).

He further elaborated, ‘The Pakistani Air Force executed… ‘A’ launched by ‘B’ and directed by ‘C’, successfully striking its target,’ referring to a comprehensive report from May 12 by China Space News, which is closely linked to China’s defense industry. Dahm clarified that the effectiveness of this kill chain is not merely about comparing platforms but rather about the seamless integration of each component—from sensor to shooter—into a networked, real-time engagement system. In today’s fast-paced conflict scenarios, where every millisecond can influence the outcome of a mission, the kill chain concept—encompassing the entire cycle of detection, identification, tracking, targeting, engagement, and damage assessment—has become essential to modern military operations.

The entire kill chain is now underpinned by an extensive framework of ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) resources, satellite communications, high-speed data networks, and increasingly autonomous fire-control systems powered by artificial intelligence.

In the context of the Pakistan-India conflict, Dahm suggests that the process likely initiated with a ground radar or air defense system identifying an Indian Air Force aircraft entering disputed airspace. This radar information was then relayed to a forward-deployed J-10C, Pakistan’s latest 4.5-generation multirole fighter obtained from China, which swiftly launched a long-range beyond-visual-range (BVR) missile at the target. The missile’s midcourse guidance was reportedly managed by an airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) platform—most likely the KJ-500—utilizing encrypted data links to refine the missile’s trajectory for optimal kill probability. “It was a long-range, Beyond Visual Range shot, likely employing the export variant PL-15E,” Dahm noted, referencing one of China’s most advanced air-to-air missile systems, now in service with both China and Pakistan.

Pakistani defense sources indicate that one J-10C is thought to have successfully shot down an Indian Air Force Rafale from a distance of 182 kilometers using a PL-15 missile—an achievement some defense analysts have labeled the longest recorded air-to-air kill in military aviation history. While independent confirmation of the kill distance is still pending, the PL-15 missile—developed by the China Airborne Missile Academy (CAMA)—has proven to be a strategic equalizer against Western counterparts like the AIM-120D AMRAAM and the European Meteor. Featuring a dual-pulse motor and an active radar seeker, the PL-15 can engage agile airborne targets at ranges exceeding 200 kilometers, firmly establishing it in the elite class of long-range BVR munitions.

The operational framework exhibited by Pakistan reflects the U.S. military’s Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control (CJADC2) doctrine, which is an advanced warfare strategy aimed at integrating land, air, sea, space, and cyber capabilities into a cohesive decision-making network.

Dahm remarked that as more details about the specific engagement emerge, it could shed light on Pakistan’s success in systems integration, particularly in contrast to India’s more fragmented strategy. He also pointed out that Pakistan has likely adapted some of its Chinese-supplied AEW&C aircraft for specialized electronic warfare (EW) roles, although it remains uncertain if electromagnetic manipulation influenced the recent engagement.

Dahm warned against oversimplified comparisons between Chinese and Western technologies, suggesting that such comparisons may not yield significant insights. Instead, he argued that the focus should be on the systems of systems, training, and tactics—elements that are often challenging to quantify. He stressed that organizational unity and tactical doctrine frequently hold greater importance than mere technical specifications.

Additionally, Dahm noted the structural challenges faced by the Indian Air Force (IAF), which, despite having a larger number of aircraft, operates a diverse fleet with technologies from France, Russia, Israel, and domestic sources, each featuring distinct data architectures, communication protocols, and EW systems.

The IAF’s primary arsenal consists of French Rafales, Russian Su-30MKIs and MiG-29s, Anglo-French Jaguars, Indian-manufactured Tejas fighters, and Mirage 2000s, all of which feature incompatible avionics and fire-control systems. This lack of standardization hinders real-time data sharing, sensor integration, and cross-platform targeting, which are essential for an effective kill chain in contemporary air combat. Basic tactical datalinks are also non-standard, necessitating third-party integration modules for real-time communication between Russian Su-30MKIs and French Rafales, leading to delays and vulnerabilities in critical operations. The presence of varied missile systems—AIM-132 ASRAAM, R-77, Meteor, Astra—complicates logistics and targeting further, requiring distinct maintenance, storage, and command protocols.

This diversity, once seen as a safeguard against over-reliance, is increasingly becoming a structural disadvantage in a landscape where speed, automation, and interoperability are paramount. India’s air doctrine still lacks a fully digitized combat cloud framework, making it challenging to coordinate multi-platform, multi-domain operations with the same efficiency and accuracy as rivals like Pakistan or China.

In contrast, Pakistan has embraced a more cohesive and integrated approach, centering its air combat strategy around platforms primarily sourced from China and the U.S., resulting in minimal compatibility issues. The JF-17 Thunder and J-10C utilize Chinese-made AESA radars, electronic warfare systems, and datalinks that facilitate seamless information exchange with KJ-500 AEW&C platforms and ground-based radar networks. This uniformity enables Pakistan to maintain an efficient ‘sensor-to-shooter’ loop with minimal latency—detection via radar, cueing by AEW&C, and immediate engagement by fighters, all interconnected within the same electronic warfare and data-sharing framework.

This model not only enhances response times but also improves the survivability and situational awareness of frontline pilots and commanders. Systems designed in China, such as the PL-15, are seamlessly integrated into this framework, allowing for data relays, midcourse guidance, and kill assessments to occur within a unified digital environment—reducing the risk of spoofing, jamming, or data loss between platforms.

Pakistan’s commitment to a cohesive kill chain doctrine was clearly demonstrated in the recent air battle under examination, which showcased the coordinated use of ground radars, AWACS, beyond-visual-range missiles, and strategic targeting of high-value enemy assets from a distance. With China serving as both supplier and systems architect, Pakistan gains access to comprehensive military packages that include software, hardware, training, and tactical doctrine as a cohesive unit.

This approach sharply contrasts with India’s fragmented defense procurement strategy, where platforms are frequently acquired independently, leading to delays, budget overruns, and operational mismatches. In the context of fifth-generation warfare, where success relies on speed, automation, and data integration, Pakistan’s kill chain-focused model provides a significant advantage in potential future aerial conflicts in South Asia.

How did Trump catch the President of South Africa off guard during their meeting?

By
Asif Shahid
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President Donald Trump, right, speaks during a meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office on May 21, 2025.

Just before President Donald Trump welcomed his South African counterpart into the Oval Office on Wednesday, White House staff were seen transporting two large televisions down the driveway and into the West Wing. President Cyril Ramaphosa was unprepared for what was about to unfold.

Trump dimmed the lights and initiated what could be described as an ambush, presenting a video he claimed demonstrated his unfounded assertion that White South Africans are facing persecution and ‘genocide.’ A visibly taken aback Ramaphosa, who had just been engaging in light conversation with Trump about golf, remained silent. As a seasoned diplomat and former chief negotiator for Nelson Mandela during the transition away from White minority rule, Ramaphosa struggled to mask his unease.

The encounter was clearly premeditated, with Trump’s team providing printed articles for him to display to the cameras, which he claimed supported his allegations of White ‘genocide.’ It seemed almost certain that Trump would seize the opportunity to promote these fringe theories — which he has been vocal about for months — regarding the supposed seizure of land and mass killings of White farmers in South Africa. Just the previous week, 59 White South Africans had arrived in the United States after being granted refugee status by the White House.

Since assuming office in January, Trump has not shied away from transforming his meetings into platforms for public confrontation. However, the multimedia spectacle he orchestrated surpassed anything he has previously executed in the Oval Office. Even his heated exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February, which some critics viewed as a premeditated setup, lacked visual support.

A White House official indicated that Trump intended Wednesday’s event to highlight an issue that the administration believes the media has overlooked. Trump claimed to have received feedback from ‘thousands’ regarding the matter.

Despite Ramaphosa’s composed efforts to clarify his country’s circumstances and address Trump’s accusations, Trump seemed unfazed. ‘Death, death, death, horrible death,’ he exclaimed, while flipping through printed articles. It was clear during the unfolding events that Trump and his team had meticulously prepared in advance to substantiate the unfounded claims of White victimization.

Aides noted that they expected this topic to dominate the Oval Office discussion and were aware of Ramaphosa’s intention to correct Trump’s erroneous beliefs before his trip to Washington. This prompted the White House to arrive at the meeting equipped with materials and to showcase a video featuring the fiery opposition leader Julius Malema calling for violence against White farmers. Shortly after the video concluded, the White House shared a copy on its official social media platforms. The articles Trump brandished during the meeting were systematically disseminated online by his aides.

Trump’s supporters praised the confrontation on social media, interpreting it as another instance of the president demanding accountability from global leaders. The strategic release of information indicated Trump’s eagerness to leverage the meeting to promote their narrative of victimization, despite Ramaphosa’s intention to focus on trade and geopolitical matters. No amount of diplomacy or gestures from the South African president—such as inviting two professional golfers to his delegation or praising Trump for the decor of the Oval Office—could prevent the unexpected turn of events.

‘What you witnessed in the speeches does not reflect government policy. We have a multiparty democracy in South Africa that permits diverse opinions,’ Ramaphosa stated following the video. ‘Our government policy is entirely opposed to what he was asserting.’

Trump’s preoccupation with the supposed mistreatment of White South Africans is not a recent development; he expressed a desire to assist White farmers displaced from their properties during his first term. However, his public assertions of oppression and ‘genocide’ have intensified significantly in the early months of his second term. The White House has expedited the processing of Afrikaner refugees while halting refugee applications from other groups.

Earlier this year, the US also suspended aid to South Africa and expelled its ambassador. In many respects, Trump’s critique of South Africa’s laws—designed to address the injustices of apartheid—aligns with his campaign against diversity initiatives in the United States, which, like some of the South African regulations he opposes, aim to rectify historical racial inequalities. His stance has received backing from South African-born billionaire Elon Musk, who was one of Trump’s key advisors during the initial phase of his new administration.

Musk has mostly distanced himself from his efforts to reform the federal government in order to concentrate on his business pursuits. However, he made a return to the White House on Wednesday for a meeting with Ramaphosa, positioning himself behind one of the gold sofas as the contentious discussions took place. Musk had previously accused South Africa of hindering the operation of his Starlink internet service due to non-compliance with Black ownership regulations.

In anticipation of Wednesday’s meeting, South African government officials were preparing to propose a workaround that would enable Musk’s venture to function within the country. This move was perceived as an effort to foster goodwill with the US administration prior to the discussions. Nevertheless, it appeared to have little effect on easing tensions.

During the Oval Office proceedings, Trump seemed disinterested in allowing Musk to speak, stating, ‘Elon’s from South Africa, and I don’t want to talk to him about that. I don’t think it’s fair to him.’

US officials suggest Israel may be planning an attack on Iranian nuclear sites

By
Asif Shahid
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0

Recent intelligence reports indicate that the United States has acquired information suggesting Israel is preparing to target Iranian nuclear sites, despite the Trump administration’s ongoing diplomatic efforts with Tehran, according to several US officials who spoke to CNN.

Such an action would represent a significant departure from President Donald Trump’s stance, officials noted. It could also potentially escalate tensions into a wider regional conflict in the Middle East, which the US has been trying to prevent since the outbreak of hostilities in Gaza in 2023.

Officials warn that it remains uncertain whether Israeli leaders have reached a definitive conclusion, and there is considerable disagreement within the US government regarding the probability of Israel taking action. The decision on whether and how Israel might proceed is likely contingent on its assessment of US negotiations with Tehran concerning its nuclear ambitions.

However, one source familiar with US intelligence remarked, ‘The likelihood of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has increased significantly in recent months.’ Furthermore, the possibility of a US-Iran agreement brokered by Trump that does not eliminate all of Iran’s uranium enhances the chances of such a strike occurring.

The growing concerns are fueled not only by public and private statements from high-ranking Israeli officials indicating that such a move is under consideration but also by intercepted communications and observations of Israeli military activities that may imply an impending strike, according to multiple intelligence sources. Among the military preparations noted by the US are the deployment of air munitions and the conclusion of an air exercise, as reported by two of the sources.

However, these same indicators may also indicate Israel’s attempt to compel Iran to relinquish critical aspects of its nuclear program by warning of potential repercussions if it fails to comply—highlighting the intricate challenges the White House is currently facing.

President Trump has openly threatened military action against Iran should his administration’s attempts to negotiate a new nuclear agreement aimed at curbing or eliminating Tehran’s nuclear ambitions prove unsuccessful. Nevertheless, Trump has also established a timeframe for diplomatic engagement.

In a correspondence to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in mid-March, Trump imposed a 60-day deadline for these negotiations to yield results, according to a source familiar with the matter. It has now surpassed 60 days since that letter was sent, and 38 days since the initial round of discussions commenced.

A senior Western diplomat who met with the president earlier this month indicated that Trump conveyed the US would allow only a few weeks for these negotiations to succeed before considering military action. Currently, however, the White House’s stance remains one of diplomacy.

This situation has placed Israel in a difficult position, as noted by Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official with expertise in the region. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces the dual challenge of preventing a US-Iran agreement that Israel deems unsatisfactory while also maintaining a good relationship with Trump, who has already diverged from Netanyahu on significant security matters in the area. Panikoff remarked that ultimately, Israeli decision-making will hinge on US policy choices and actions, as well as the agreements President Trump reaches or does not reach with Iran, adding that he does not believe Netanyahu would risk completely jeopardizing the US-Israel relationship by launching a strike without at least implicit US consent.

The United States is enhancing its intelligence gathering efforts in preparation to support Israel should its leaders opt for military action, according to a senior US official. However, a source familiar with the Trump administration’s perspective indicated that the US is unlikely to assist Israel in conducting strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at this time, unless there is a significant provocation from Tehran.

Israel lacks the capability to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program independently, as it requires American support for midair refueling and specialized munitions to penetrate deep underground sites, a necessity corroborated by previous US intelligence assessments. An Israeli source informed CNN that Israel is ready to undertake military operations independently if the US were to pursue what this source termed a ‘bad deal’ with Iran that Israel cannot accept. ‘It seems more probable they would strike to disrupt the deal if they believe Trump is inclined to accept a ‘bad deal’,’ remarked another individual familiar with US intelligence. ‘The Israelis have been quite clear in signaling this to us, both publicly and privately.’

A US intelligence report from February indicated that Israel could deploy military aircraft or long-range missiles to exploit Iran’s air defense systems. However, the same report noted that such strikes would only marginally hinder the Iranian nuclear program and would not serve as a comprehensive solution. ‘This presents a significant challenge for Netanyahu,’ stated Panikoff.

Currently, US negotiations with Iran are stalled over a demand that Tehran cease uranium enrichment, a process that can facilitate weaponization but is also essential for civilian nuclear power generation. Special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading the US delegation, told ABC News over the weekend that Washington ‘cannot permit even 1% of an enrichment capability’ in any agreement.

On Tuesday, Khamenei expressed skepticism about the possibility of reaching an agreement with the United States regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, labeling the US demand for Iran to cease uranium enrichment as a significant error. Iran maintains that it is entitled to enrich uranium under the United Nations’ Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and asserts that it will not abandon this right under any circumstances.

According to Witkoff, another round of discussions may occur in Europe this week. Both the US and Iran have presented proposals; however, after over a month of negotiations facilitated by Oman, there is currently no US proposal approved by Trump, as reported by sources.

In February, US intelligence agencies warned that Israel is likely to target facilities critical to Iran’s nuclear program this year, as previously reported by CNN. A US official remarked that Israel has consistently held the view that military action is the only viable means to halt Iran’s military nuclear ambitions.

Trump reveals US plans to deploy space weapons under the ‘Golden Dome’ initiative

By
Anjum Nadeem
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0
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks, on the day of Tulsi Gabbard's swearing in ceremony as Director of National Intelligence, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C.

President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have unveiled their most definitive strategy for the ‘Golden Dome‘ missile defense initiative, which will involve deploying weapons in space for the first time.

During a press conference at the White House on Tuesday, Trump announced that he had ‘officially chosen a framework’ for the system, aimed at neutralizing ‘hypersonic missiles, ballistic missiles, and advanced cruise missiles.’ ‘I promised the American people that I would establish a state-of-the-art missile defense shield to safeguard our nation from the dangers of foreign missile threats,’ Trump stated to reporters in the Oval Office.

He further explained that the Golden Dome system would incorporate ‘space-based sensors and interceptors.’ ‘Once fully operational, the Golden Dome will have the capability to intercept missiles even if they are launched from the opposite side of the globe or from space,’ Trump added. ‘We will possess the most advanced system ever created.’

This announcement follows less than four months after Trump signed an executive order initiating the program’s development. General Michael Guetlein, currently the vice chief of space operations at Space Force, is set to oversee the initiative.

At the event, Hegseth praised the plan as a ‘transformative development’ and a ‘long-term investment in the security of America and its citizens.’

The White House has yet to provide additional information regarding the missile defense system, while the Pentagon continues to assess its capabilities and requirements. Earlier this month, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the space-based elements of the Golden Dome could reach a cost of $542 billion over the next two decades. It emphasized that a significant number of sensors and interceptors would be essential for the effectiveness of a space-based system, especially as foreign military capabilities, such as those of North Korea, become more advanced.

However, on Tuesday, Trump presented a significantly lower estimate and timeline. He stated, ‘It should be fully operational before the end of my term. So, we’ll have it done in about three years,’ estimating the total cost to be around $175 billion, with plans to utilize existing defense resources for the system’s development. Nevertheless, funding for the initiative has not yet been secured.

During the news conference on Tuesday, Trump confirmed his request for $25 billion for the system as part of a tax cut bill currently under consideration in Congress, although this amount may be reduced due to ongoing discussions.

The overall cost of the project is expected to vary, with the Associated Press reporting that an unnamed government official indicated Trump had received three different versions of the plan, labeled as ‘medium’, ‘high’, and ‘extra high’.

The tiers were linked to the number of satellites, sensors, and interceptors planned for deployment in the program. According to reports, Trump opted for the ‘high’ tier, which has an estimated initial cost between $30 billion and $100 billion.

Concerns regarding the feasibility of a space-based defense system

While outlining his vision for the Golden Dome on Tuesday, Trump referenced various influences, including Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ missile defense system, partially funded by the US. He also acknowledged the contributions of the late President Ronald Reagan, who was in office during the Cold War in the 1980s. Reagan proposed a nuclear defense strategy in 1983 as part of his Strategic Defense Initiative, which included space-based technologies.

Trump stated, ‘We will truly be completing the job that President Reagan started 40 years ago, forever ending the missile threat to the American homeland.’ However, concerns remain regarding the feasibility of a space-based defense system, its costs, and the potential for a new arms race.

Democrats have raised questions about Elon Musk’s SpaceX, a leading contender among tech firms aiming to develop essential components of the system. A coalition of 42 Democratic lawmakers has requested an investigation into Musk’s involvement in the bidding process, citing his role as a special adviser to Trump and his significant campaign contributions. ‘If Mr. Musk were to exert undue influence over the Golden Dome contract, it would exemplify a troubling pattern of disregarding conflict of interest regulations,’ the Democrats stated in their letter, urging the investigation.

On Tuesday, Trump did not answer directly when asked about the companies participating in the Golden Dome project. Instead, he emphasized that the system would benefit industries in states such as Alaska, Indiana, Florida, and Georgia, adding, ‘Canada has reached out to us, expressing interest in being involved. We will be in discussions with them.’

RSS, India’s original ruling party, has faced four bans, with decision-making authority resting with Mohan Bhagwat

By
Jabbar Chaudhary
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Currently, India is under the complete influence of the RSS, with Narendra Modi serving as the nominal Prime Minister, while the true power lies with RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat. The BJP, acting as the political arm of the RSS, has undermined the secular foundations of India.

Historically, the RSS has faced bans in India, having been prohibited at least four times in its century-long existence. The first ban occurred in 1947 when the British government identified the RSS as a societal threat, although they later rescinded the ban due to the rising tide of the freedom movement. The second ban was implemented following the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi, as documented in the Government of India’s gazette notification from 1948, during which Vallabhbhai Patel served as the Home Minister who enforced the ban on the RSS.

The RSS faced its third ban when Indira Gandhi declared a state of emergency in India in 1975. During this period, the organization was accused of inciting violence, leading to its prohibition. At that time, the RSS was deeply concerned about its political identity, which prompted the establishment of the BJP, attracting several radical Hindu leaders. Notably, India’s Home Minister Amit Shah and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh have been associated with the BJP since its inception.

The RSS encountered its fourth ban following the demolition of the Babri Masjid by extremist Hindu groups. Each of these bans was attributed to the RSS’s anti-state activities and its potential to disrupt societal peace. While the Congress government imposed restrictions on the RSS, the BJP administration has allowed it greater freedom, even reversing the ban on government employees joining the RSS that was enacted by Indira Gandhi in 1966.

Current reports suggest that the RSS has significantly failed to achieve its goals of a Akhand Bharat and the dismantled India’s secular framework, resulting in considerable diplomatic challenges for the country due to the RSS’s extremist policies.

Western intelligence rushes to exploit the discovery of China’s PL-15 missile debris in India

By
Asif Shahid
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In a significant development that may reshape global air combat strategies, several European countries and their Western allies have shown considerable interest in collaborating with India to analyze debris from the Chinese-manufactured PL-15 missile, which has been recovered from various sites within Indian territory.

The PL-15 is currently China’s most sophisticated beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missile and is known to be utilized by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) on frontline aircraft such as the Chengdu J-10C and the jointly developed JF-17 Thunder. These fighter jets played a crucial role in the recent high-intensity air conflict between Pakistan and India, marking one of the initial operational deployments of the PL-15 in a near-peer engagement context. Official claims from the PAF indicate that its J-10C multirole fighters effectively utilized the PL-15, reportedly downing six Indian Air Force (IAF) aircraft during the conflict. Among the aircraft claimed to have been neutralized were three Dassault Rafales, one Su-30MKI, one MiG-29, and one Mirage 2000, showcasing a diverse and formidable representation of India’s modern combat aviation capabilities.

Additionally, the PAF’s JF-17 Block III variants are also believed to be equipped with the PL-15, significantly enhancing Pakistan’s BVR engagement capabilities and its ability to conduct precision strikes from extended ranges. The apparent operational success of the PL-15 has thrust it into the global spotlight, prompting defense analysts, military officials, and think tanks to urgently evaluate the missile’s real-world effectiveness and its implications for regional air superiority.

While the PL-15 missiles are touted for their effectiveness, not all have successfully hit their targets, with reports indicating that some failed to detonate or veered off course, enabling Indian forces to recover parts in relatively good condition. Indian media reports that debris, including crucial electronic components, was found in the village of Kamahi Devi in Punjab’s Hoshiarpur district, with further sites currently being examined.

These missile fragments have attracted significant interest from foreign intelligence agencies, with numerous Western organizations seeking to analyze the debris for forensic and reverse engineering purposes. Sources from India’s defense media indicate that several members of the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence alliance—comprising the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand—have shown interest in closely examining the recovered PL-15 components.

Additionally, strategic nations like France and Japan are reportedly engaged in discreet discussions with New Delhi to gain collaborative access to the missile debris for independent evaluation. For Western analysts, the chance to study an operationally deployed PL-15 presents a unique opportunity to gain insights into China’s rapidly advancing missile technology, especially as this system begins to compete with the U.S.-made AIM-120D AMRAAM and the European MBDA Meteor in terms of performance.

The PL-15 missile signifies a major advancement in Chinese aerospace capabilities, achieving speeds of Mach 4 and capable of targeting airborne threats at ranges of up to 300 kilometers—far exceeding conventional beyond-visual-range (BVR) capabilities. The presence of PL-15 missile debris in India has significant strategic ramifications and provides valuable intelligence-gathering prospects for foreign intelligence agencies, particularly those from Western nations.

Western intelligence agencies, including the U.S. DIA, NSA, CIA, and their defense contractors, would focus on the forensic analysis of the PL-15’s electronic systems, propulsion, guidance components, and datalink modules. Analyzing debris from sensors, RF seekers, or the two-way datalink antenna could uncover details about the signal processing architecture, encryption methods, or radar seeker bandwidths. This information would enable NATO and allied air forces to refine their Electronic Countermeasure (ECM) strategies to effectively jam or deceive the PL-15’s seeker or disrupt its guidance during actual air combat.

By studying the missile’s radar seeker, intelligence agencies can ascertain the specific radar frequencies and tracking patterns of the PL-15. This data contributes to the threat libraries utilized by Western fighter jets, such as the F-35, Eurofighter, and Rafale, allowing their onboard Radar Warning Receivers (RWRs) and Electronic Warfare (EW) systems to more effectively identify and counter PL-15 threats.

Additionally, it improves the accuracy of simulations in training and testing environments, such as the Red Flag exercises at Nellis AFB. If the PL-15 debris is traced back to a Pakistani JF-17 or J-10C, it would confirm China’s export of a long-range active radar-guided missile that was previously thought to be exclusive to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). This revelation would alter the evaluations made by Western defense ministries and Five Eyes intelligence partners concerning the spread of advanced Chinese weaponry in South Asia and beyond, potentially accelerating arms control discussions or prompting diplomatic efforts to restrict future missile transfers.

Analyzing debris is essential for confirming or disproving China’s claims regarding missile performance, such as the purported range of the PL-15 exceeding 300km, its ramjet engine, or its sophisticated anti-stealth features. This analysis is vital since China seldom conducts transparent public missile tests, making the remnants found in the field rare indicators of their actual capabilities. The results could significantly impact how Western air forces strategize for Beyond Visual Range (BVR) engagements with potential People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) or Pakistan Air Force (PAF) aircraft in conflict situations.

Given China’s dependence on Russian radar seekers, propulsion technologies, and collaborative ventures in avionics, intelligence agencies will closely examine the debris for any Russian-sourced components. This scrutiny is particularly critical in light of Western sanctions against Moscow, as evidence of Chinese-Russian defense cooperation could bolster the enforcement of these sanctions and enhance military-industrial monitoring.

The confirmed deployment and use of the PL-15 in Indian airspace has raised alarms within Western strategic circles, leading to urgent reassessments of BVR threat doctrines in areas where Chinese weapons are distributed.

Analyzing the composition and technology of the PL-15 missile can assist Western defense companies like Raytheon, MBDA, Lockheed Martin, or BAE Systems in developing counter-missile systems, decoys, or advanced beyond-visual-range missiles with enhanced capabilities. This information would also benefit countries aiming to upgrade their air defense systems, including India, which may seek to improve the effectiveness of its Netra AEW&Cs, Rafales, or S-400s in response to this threat.

For Western intelligence agencies, the recovery and examination of PL-15 debris within India represents a significant and strategic intelligence opportunity, providing insight into China’s most advanced air-to-air missile, potentially deployed by its ally Pakistan in real-world scenarios.

Beyond immediate tactical advantages, this incident enables the West to reassess its military strategies, electronic warfare capabilities, and geopolitical stance in the Indo-Pacific and South Asia, where the reality of Chinese weaponry in the hands of third parties becomes increasingly concerning.

The PL-15, developed by the China Airborne Missile Academy (CAMA), is specifically designed to target high-value aerial assets such as airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems and force-multiplier aircraft operating within complex air defense frameworks. Its extended range offers operators a formidable stand-off capability, allowing them to disrupt enemy air formations before they can effectively coordinate or respond, thereby altering the tactical dynamics for regional air forces.

Regional security analysts assert that Pakistan’s introduction of the missile significantly shifts the aerial power dynamics in South Asia, enhancing Islamabad’s deterrent capabilities and first-strike options in potential conflicts with India. The missile’s advanced features include an AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar seeker, which allows for autonomous target tracking in challenging electromagnetic environments.

Additionally, its robust two-way datalink enables real-time mid-course updates from the launch aircraft, facilitating dynamic re-targeting as battlefield conditions evolve. Powered by a dual-pulse solid-fuel rocket motor, the missile maintains high-speed performance throughout its flight, increasing its effectiveness against agile, high-performance targets, including fifth-generation stealth aircraft.

The miniaturized high-frequency AESA radar seeker enhances the missile’s resilience to jamming and decoys, allowing it to operate independently after launch. The two-way datalink also provides battlefield flexibility, enabling pilots to adjust the missile’s course or abort the mission if necessary. Measuring approximately four meters in length and weighing around 200 kilograms, the PL-15 is designed for compatibility with various Chinese-origin platforms and may also be available to export customers aligned with Beijing. Its operational use has positioned the PL-15 as a formidable competitor to Western beyond-visual-range (BVR) systems, marking its entry into a select group of missiles known for true long-range effectiveness.

Its deployment under Pakistan’s military command has raised concerns among military strategists in the Indo-Pacific, who now face the task of countering a rapidly exportable Chinese missile that has already demonstrated its capabilities.

India’s Rafale Challenge: France Denies Access to Source Code as Indo-Pacific Tensions Escalate

By
Anjum Nadeem
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Rafale fighter

France’s unwavering decision to deny India access to the Rafale fighter jet’s source code has rekindled strategic frictions, highlighting the challenges of acquiring advanced weaponry when digital sovereignty is not guaranteed. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts from New Delhi, Dassault Aviation has not agreed to release the essential software that controls the Rafale’s mission systems, weapon integration, and avionics.

India aims to integrate indigenous armaments such as the Astra beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile, Rudram anti-radiation missile, and various smart munitions into the Rafale framework to boost combat independence and lessen dependence on foreign suppliers. This initiative is a key element of India’s ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ (Self-Reliant India) vision, which seeks to establish a future where domestic research and development and manufacturing support the nation’s airpower capabilities.

The Rafale, a twin-engine 4.5-generation multirole fighter, is driven by two Snecma M88-2 afterburning turbofan engines and can supercruise at Mach 1.4 without afterburner, providing a high thrust-to-weight ratio and extended operational range. It is equipped with the Thales RBE2-AA Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, capable of tracking up to 40 targets and engaging 8 simultaneously at distances over 100 km, making it one of the most sophisticated radar systems available. Additionally, the aircraft incorporates the Spectra electronic warfare suite, which features radar warning receivers, jammers, and infrared missile warning sensors that can identify and counter modern threats through both active and passive measures.

India’s Rafale fleet is enhanced with Helmet Mounted Display Systems (HMDS), Thales Front Sector Optronics (FSO), Infrared Search and Track (IRST), and sophisticated data links for real-time network-centric operations. The Rafale’s combat capabilities include the integration of the Meteor Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missile, which has a no-escape zone exceeding 60 km, the SCALP-EG long-range cruise missile for precision strikes up to 500 km, and the Hammer (AASM) modular air-to-ground precision munitions.

India secured 36 Rafale jets through a €7.8 billion (RM37.5 billion) contract signed in September 2016, with the first jet delivered on 29 July 2020 and the last one arriving on 15 December 2022. The Rafales are currently operational at Ambala Airbase, strategically located near Pakistan, and Hasimara Airbase, close to the Chinese border, both selected for their significance in India’s two-front war strategy.

To bolster maritime strike capabilities, India finalized a US$7.4 billion (RM33.3 billion) deal in April 2025 for 26 Rafale-M fighters, the naval variant, intended for deployment on INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya. These carrier-based aircraft will replace the aging MiG-29K fleet, providing India with advanced fourth-plus-generation maritime airpower at sea, which is vital given China’s growing carrier presence in the Indian Ocean. Although there is collaboration on integrating certain Indian-developed munitions such as Astra Mk1 and the Smart Anti-Airfield Weapon (SAAW), France’s reluctance to share the core source code of the Rafale remains a significant barrier to deeper defense cooperation.

The source code in question regulates essential components, such as the Modular Mission Computer (MMC) and the radar-electronic interface necessary for effective weapons integration. Without access to this digital framework, India encounters a capability limitation, unable to independently modify the Rafale for changing operational needs or to carry out software-defined enhancements without French consent.

A senior official from the Indian Air Force, who is knowledgeable about the situation, stated, ‘The lack of access to the source code poses a major challenge to India’s wider defense modernization efforts.’ This issue has sparked a national dialogue about technological independence, drawing uncomfortable comparisons to previous experiences with the Mirage 2000 fleet, where restricted code access impeded local upgrades. ‘Although France has proposed limited cooperation through joint technical teams and constrained software kits, India’s request for complete access underscores its aim to lessen dependence on foreign suppliers and strengthen its defense capabilities autonomously.’

Military strategists contend that access to the code would enable India to swiftly adjust mission parameters, incorporate domestically developed AI-driven subsystems, and optimize logistics without external reliance. Conversely, France maintains that the source code—developed over many years at significant financial investment—is a strategic industrial asset that should not be subject to foreign interference.

The French defense community is concerned that granting access could create a troubling precedent for other Rafale users, such as Egypt, Qatar, and possibly Indonesia, who might seek similar concessions. Additionally, there are genuine worries that access to the source code could introduce security risks, including the potential for reverse engineering, cyber attacks, or unauthorized transfer of French technologies to competing nations.

Additionally, France argues that unauthorized alterations by external parties could jeopardize the integrity of aircraft, safety certifications, and post-sale support agreements, thereby threatening the entire Rafale export initiative. While there are limited workaround options available—such as the integration of Indian munitions through external pods or utilizing fire-and-forget capabilities—these solutions are less than ideal and hinder the complete utilization of Rafale’s sensor-fusion and network-centric warfare capabilities.

Despite the ongoing challenges, the defense relationship between India and France remains strong and continues to grow, highlighted by the April 2025 Rafale-M agreement, which reflects ongoing mutual confidence in sharing advanced technologies, albeit not without limitations. Indian officials assert that the long-term solution lies in the development of indigenous 5th-generation fighters like the AMCA and the enhancement of the Tejas Mk2 program—aircraft designed to ensure full sovereign control over mission systems.

Nevertheless, as global warfare transitions into a software-defined battlefield, the dispute over the Rafale source code serves as a poignant reminder that even the most sophisticated jets are only as sovereign as the software they operate on. While France is resolute in safeguarding the Rafale’s digital core, there are significant precedents where aircraft manufacturers have provided full or partial access to source codes or mission-critical software, particularly to trusted strategic allies.

For example, the United States granted Israel exceptional access to the F-35’s software framework, enabling the Israeli Air Force (IAF) to implement its own command, control, communications, and electronic warfare systems on the “Adir” variant of the stealth fighter. This level of autonomy allows Israel to utilize the F-35 as a sovereign weapons platform, incorporating locally developed air-to-ground munitions and proprietary cyber and electronic warfare systems, while preserving its qualitative military advantage in the region. Likewise, Russia has, in certain instances, provided extensive technical documentation and system access to close partners like India under the Su-30MKI program.

India has been permitted to tailor the Su-30MKI with homegrown technologies, including radar warning receivers developed by DRDO, Astra missiles, and locally produced mission computers. This level of customization has not been afforded by France for the Rafale.

In contrast, South Korea has benefited from a substantial technical transfer in its collaboration with Lockheed Martin on the KF-21 Boramae project, which included access to design blueprints, software integration assistance, and developmental cooperation, although the complete F-35 source code remains under strict control.

Similarly, Sweden’s Saab has proposed full technology transfer and source code access to nations like Brazil in its pursuit of international Gripen sales, enabling Brazil to manufacture and modify the Gripen-E domestically through a collaborative development and production approach.

These instances illustrate that, with appropriate strategic alignment and trust, access to fighter aircraft source code—despite its sensitive nature—is not without precedent. Currently, India’s defense establishment is questioning why such access is granted to certain allies while being denied to them, which is also a crucial strategic partner of the West in the Indo-Pacific region. This perceived double standard has intensified the ongoing discourse in India regarding genuine technological sovereignty in advanced defense procurement.

China speeds up J-35A stealth jet deliveries to Pakistan, with first flights anticipated by Q1 2026

By
Anjum Nadeem
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J-35A stealth aircraft

In a significant development that may alter the balance of airpower in South Asia, reports indicate that Beijing is expediting the delivery of its advanced stealth fighter, the J-35A, to its longstanding ally Pakistan. Islamabad is now anticipated to receive its initial shipment as soon as the first quarter of 2026.

Senior officials from the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) have indicated that China has accelerated the transfer of the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation’s fifth-generation fighter by six months. This adjustment in the timeline is largely seen as a reaction to escalating regional tensions and a strategic move to enhance Pakistan’s aerial defense capabilities.

According to sources, with the revised delivery schedule, Pakistan is set to receive its first batch of these advanced stealth fighters in early 2026, rather than the previously planned late 2026. This change highlights the urgency of the defense collaboration between the two nations. Although these developments have not yet been officially confirmed by Islamabad, the PAF, or SAC, the increasing reports suggest that Pakistan is on the verge of a significant upgrade in its air combat capabilities.

Initial reports from late 2024 had disclosed Pakistan’s intention to acquire 40 J-35A stealth fighters, marking the first known export of a fifth-generation fighter from China, a significant achievement for Beijing as it seeks to establish itself as a leading global defense exporter. The announcement of this deal closely followed a notable visit to Islamabad by General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, who engaged in private discussions with Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir.

In April, speculation intensified when PAF Chief Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmad Babar visited Beijing, where official Chinese media later confirmed his meeting with Defence Minister Dong Jun on April 8.

According to Global Times, the discussion centered on enhancing strategic military collaboration between the two nations, set against a backdrop of increasingly intricate regional security challenges, including India’s airpower modernization and the shifting Indo-Pacific landscape.

If the J-35A is delivered as planned, it could shift the regional airpower dynamics in favor of Pakistan, particularly as India continues to depend on older platforms like the Su-30MKI and the newer, yet non-stealth Rafale, which do not possess the fifth-generation capabilities of China’s latest fighter.

The Pakistan Air Force indicated its interest in acquiring the J-35A as early as 2024, a decision seen as part of Islamabad’s broader strategy to achieve air parity with India’s quantitative and qualitative advantages.

In a notable statement that year, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer remarked, ‘Discussions have occurred regarding the procurement of the J-35A, which will soon be integrated into the Pakistan Air Force.’ Subsequent reports from Pakistani media have suggested that a group of PAF pilots has already been sent to China for operational conversion training on the J-35A platform, providing concrete evidence of Pakistan’s progress towards fifth-generation airpower capabilities.

The J-35A is central to China’s strategy to undermine U.S. and allied air superiority by deploying adaptable, stealth-capable fighters designed for advanced warfare in contested electromagnetic environments.

Designed as a single-seat, twin-engine stealth fighter, the J-35A integrates cutting-edge avionics, a low-observable structure, and real-time battlefield connectivity, positioning it at the forefront of Beijing’s ambition for multi-domain dominance. It is crafted to function as a networked battlespace coordinator, identifying enemy targets, relaying targeting information to other systems like surface-to-air missile batteries, and directing long-range munitions to neutralize threats such as stealth fighters and low-RCS cruise missiles.

This development signifies a strategic shift in Chinese military aviation, focused on deploying a cost-effective yet formidable fleet to eventually succeed aging legacy aircraft like the J-7, J-8, and earlier J-10 models. Alongside the land-based J-35A, the J-35 carrier variant is designed for operations on PLA Navy aircraft carriers, showcasing the aircraft’s adaptability within China’s integrated military framework.

The J-35A emphasizes agility, radar avoidance, and operational range across theaters. Its sleek fuselage, carefully shaped surfaces, and distinctive V-tail design minimize radar visibility and aerodynamic resistance, improving both stealth capabilities and maneuverability. In contrast to the forward-canard J-20, the J-35A employs a traditional horizontal stabilizer configuration with angled vertical stabilizers, achieving a balance between stealth design and aerodynamic performance.

The twin-engine design offers both thrust redundancy and improved acceleration, presenting advantages over single-engine models such as the F-35, although it results in slight increases in radar signature due to its larger airframe. Stealth capabilities are enhanced through the extensive application of radar-absorbent materials (RAM), serrated skin panel interfaces, and a low-observable exhaust system that minimizes both infrared and radar visibility. The J-35A can maintain its low radar cross-section (RCS) profile while carrying long-range air-to-air missiles like the PL-17, which are intended for neutralizing high-value targets deep within contested airspace.

Its avionics feature a state-of-the-art Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, chin-mounted electro-optical/infrared sensors similar to the F-35’s EOTS, and distributed aperture systems that ensure comprehensive situational awareness. The cockpit is equipped with a wide-angle holographic heads-up display (HUD), likely supplemented by helmet-mounted displays, and a fully integrated glass avionics suite that supports seamless data fusion and multi-domain combat operations.

Modi has led India into a state of diplomatic isolation

By
Jabbar Chaudhary
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India is currently experiencing significant diplomatic isolation amid the Pahalgam false flag operation and its conflict with Pakistan. The state of India‘s diplomatic relations has deteriorated to unprecedented lows, affecting ties with nations across Europe, the US, and the Middle East.

Aside from Israel, India has not garnered any official support from other countries in its accusations and military actions against Pakistan following the Pahalgam incident. For the first time, India has struggled to rally global support, including from the United Nations, in its claims against Pakistan regarding terrorism allegations.

Reports from New Delhi indicate that shortly after Pakistan’s retaliatory strike, Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar reached out to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, urging Pakistan to cease its actions. Rubio responded by stating that he had already communicated with Pakistan twice and had relayed an offer for a transparent investigation into the Pahalgam incident, but India proceeded with its attack without heeding US advice, prompting Pakistan’s response. Jaishankar expressed concern that continued operation would lead to significant losses for India and a loss of dignity.

Sources indicate that Rubio did not provide a positive response during their initial conversation, leading Prime Minister Narendra Modi to directly request President Donald Trump for an immediate ceasefire. Trump stipulated that he would announce a ceasefire only if he could persuade Pakistan, thereby preventing India from further provocation.

India faced additional setbacks in this regard. A review of Modi’s diplomatic efforts revealed that he undertook 157 foreign visits to 73 countries over 11 years, incurring expenses of 8,400 crore Indian rupees.

Modi has made the highest number of visits, totaling ten to the US, eight to France, and seven each to Japan, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates. Despite significant efforts to foster global connections and the Prime Minister’s personal involvement in diplomacy, India’s perceived isolation during critical times, such as war, is a topic of widespread discussion.

Currently, both the Indian opposition and the general populace are questioning the effectiveness of 11 years of diplomatic efforts, wondering what value has been gained from such substantial investments. This diplomatic isolation is further highlighted by Donald Trump’s remarks during his Middle East visit, where he urged India to shift its focus from conflict with Pakistan to enhancing trade.

Trump urged Apple CEO Tim Cook to cease smartphone production in India, which is perceived as a diplomatic setback for the country. This situation exemplifies India’s diplomatic isolation; when India initiated a boycott against Turkey for its support of Pakistan, Trump intervened by announcing missile supplies to Turkey, signaling to India the need to act responsibly on the global stage.

Analysts suggest that while India aimed to diplomatically isolate Pakistan, it inadvertently found itself in a similar predicament. The trap set for Pakistan has ensnared India instead, with Israel being its only overt ally, while Afghanistan provides covert support. Meanwhile, the global community largely aligns with Pakistan’s stance.

Fatah Strikes: Pakistan’s Revolutionary Precision Missiles Disrupt India’s Strategic Landscape

By
Asif Shahid
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In the final moments before a tentative ceasefire was established, temporarily halting the ongoing hostilities between the nuclear-capable nations of Pakistan and India, Islamabad introduced some of its most sophisticated and disruptive battlefield technologies—capabilities that have reverberated through Indian military leadership.

Central to this escalation were the Fatah-1 and Fatah-II Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS), developed by Pakistan’s National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM) and marketed internationally by the state-owned defense firm Global Industrial & Defence Solutions (GIDS). These systems signify Pakistan’s strategic advancement into high-precision, long-range strike capabilities—comparable to the U.S.-manufactured M142 HIMARS—but specifically designed for the South Asian context, aimed at both tactical interdiction and significant disruption of enemy infrastructure.

Created for deterrence and to achieve offensive balance in a region characterized by persistent tensions, the Fatah-series is perceived as a countermeasure to India’s growing arsenal of cruise missiles, surface-to-surface munitions, and comprehensive air defense systems.

The deployment of Fatah-1 and Fatah-II in active conflict scenarios represents a pivotal moment in South Asia’s developing precision-guided munitions (PGM) competition, marking a shift from traditional artillery bombardments to precise, high-impact operations. Observing the Pakistani military launch guided rockets from Fatah-series systems towards Indian territory starkly illustrates how the Indo-Pak conflict has evolved beyond mere border clashes, now encompassing long-range, standoff strike warfare.

Reports suggest that Fatah-II was specifically developed as a countermeasure to India’s Cold Start Doctrine (CSD), which is a limited warfare strategy aimed at facilitating swift conventional incursions into Pakistani territory before international intervention can occur. Pakistani military strategists contend that Fatah-II undermines this doctrine by threatening critical Indian command, control, and logistical centers situated deep behind the front lines, thus impairing India’s capacity to mobilize quickly without facing repercussions.

For the first time in the history of conflicts in the subcontinent, Indian rear-echelon military facilities, such as air bases, ammunition storage sites, and logistics centers, are now directly threatened by Pakistan’s conventional artillery systems. In response to Indian cruise missile attacks utilizing BrahMos and SCALP EG munitions on six vital Pakistani airbases—including Noor Khan, Mureed, and Shorkot—Islamabad reportedly retaliated with precise rocket barrages employing both Fatah-I and Fatah-II systems.

Some reports indicate that at least one Fatah-II rocket, which has a range of up to 400 km, was launched at a military installation in New Delhi, although the suppression of information by Indian authorities has hindered independent damage assessments.

Both Fatah-1 and Fatah-II are equipped with sophisticated inertial and satellite navigation systems (INS/GPS), allowing them to accurately target high-value assets, including enemy radar installations, command centers, and fortified shelters. A regional defense analyst remarked, ‘These systems, from Fatah-I to the upcoming Fatah-II, are designed for both tactical and strategic uses, facilitating deep strikes into enemy territory.’

The deployment of these systems is a key element of Pakistan’s comprehensive strategy for achieving self-sufficiency in defense technology, with GIDS playing a crucial role in converting research into operational weapon systems. Both rocket systems are essential to a broader modernization initiative aimed at evolving Pakistan’s traditional artillery forces—historically dependent on unguided munitions—into a precision-strike capability suited for a network-centric warfare context.

The shift from older systems like the Yarmouk-series to the precision-guided Fatah-series signifies a strategic transition towards standoff strike warfare, allowing Pakistan to target critical enemy assets from beyond the reach of conventional air defense systems such as Barak-8 and Akash.

Defense analysts assert that the Fatah-series represents a significant advancement in the artillery capabilities of the Pakistan Army, enabling it to deter high-value incursions and project conventional force at operational ranges that were previously unattainable. A senior defense researcher stated, ‘The Fatah system illustrates Pakistan’s strategic shift from merely countering conventional forces to adopting precision-strike capabilities that can impose significant costs on enemy command and logistics.’ He highlighted that long-range precision strikes not only improve battlefield survivability but also exert psychological pressure by threatening vital infrastructure beyond the frontline.

Another expert remarked, ‘The shift from unguided artillery to precision GMLRS conveys a strategic message—the next conflict will focus on decisive strikes rather than sheer volume of fire.’ The enhanced range and accuracy of the Fatah-II, in particular, could potentially render India’s static air defense systems ineffective or necessitate a substantial reallocation of resources to safeguard inland bases that were once deemed secure.

Pakistan’s investment in the Fatah-series signifies a strategic transition towards advanced battlefield capabilities, allowing for precision strikes at greater distances without escalating to ballistic missile confrontations. These systems serve not only as deterrents but also as active combat instruments, transforming the traditional power dynamics between Islamabad and New Delhi by establishing high-precision standoff artillery as a key component in future conflicts.

The Fatah-series has significantly redefined Pakistan’s conventional deterrence strategy, creating overlapping areas of influence over vital Indian military assets while remaining below thresholds that could provoke nuclear responses.

Furthermore, the incorporation of GMLRS into Pakistan’s military doctrine indicates a future where conventional precision warfare may prevail in Indo-Pakistani conflict scenarios, altering the strategies both nations employ for preemptive or retaliatory actions.

In response to India’s increasingly sophisticated missile defense systems, the Fatah-series offers a cost-effective, high-impact alternative that complicates New Delhi’s strategic planning and necessitates a redistribution of air defense assets deep within Indian territory.

Sixth Kill Confirmed: Pakistan Shoots Down Indian Mirage 2000 Amid Rising Casualties

By
Hammad Saeed
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Pakistan has announced the destruction of a sixth Indian Air Force (IAF) fighter jet, specifically a Mirage 2000, during a fierce aerial confrontation on the night of May 6-7 near Pampore, east of Srinagar in the disputed Kashmir region.

This declaration, made by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif during his visit to the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) base in Kamra, signifies a notable success for the Pakistan Air Force, raising the total number of Indian aircraft reportedly downed to six, which includes three of India’s advanced Rafale jets. Previously, Islamabad had reported the downing of five IAF aircraft in the early phases of the conflict, consisting of three Rafales, one MiG-29, and a Su-30MKI, all crucial elements of India’s air power.

Prime Minister Sharif stated, ‘The confirmed downing of a sixth IAF jet, a Mirage 2000 near Pampore on the night of May 6/7, once again highlights the superior combat capabilities of the Pakistan Air Force and the steadfast determination of our Armed Forces to protect the homeland at all costs.’ While the Prime Minister did not specify the aircraft or missile system responsible for this latest downing, defense analysts suggest that the operation was likely carried out by a PAF J-10C using a Chinese-made PL-15 Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missile, similar to the tactics employed in the reported takedown of the three Indian Rafales.

The J-10C, an advanced multirole fighter developed by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, is equipped with AESA radar and stealth features, serving as a key component of Pakistan’s advanced BVR interception capabilities alongside its indigenous JF-17 ‘Thunder.’ The JF-17 Block III variant, also utilized in the current conflict, is capable of deploying PL-15E missiles, reflecting Pakistan’s increasing focus on self-sufficient, network-centric combat aviation.

The Mirage 2000 and Rafale, both developed by Dassault Aviation, serve as essential assets for the Indian Air Force (IAF). Their reported destruction significantly undermines New Delhi’s conventional deterrent capabilities, both psychologically and operationally.

During a visit to the base, Prime Minister Sharif met with Pakistan Air Force (PAF) pilots who were credited with downing all six Indian aircraft, which included three Rafales, one MiG-29, one Su-30MKI, and the most recent, a Mirage 2000.

To this point, India has not provided any formal response to Pakistan’s assertions regarding the downing of the Mirage 2000 over Pampore, despite increasing international scrutiny and emerging digital forensic evidence. Even with the accumulation of imagery and open-source verification suggesting multiple losses, Indian defense officials have refrained from publicly acknowledging the claimed six aircraft losses. When asked about the status of the three downed Rafales, IAF senior commander Air Marshal A.K. Bharti responded, “We are in a wartime scenario; losses are part of the battle,” a statement interpreted by many analysts as an implicit acknowledgment.

For regional military observers, the ambiguity of Bharti’s statement further bolsters the credibility of Pakistan’s account of the shootdowns. In a press briefing during the early stages of the conflict, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar asserted that PAF fighters had engaged a significant Indian aerial deployment of 75 to 80 aircraft, marking it as the largest air combat exchange in South Asian history. Dar claimed that all five (now six) aircraft initially reported downed by Pakistan, including three Rafales, were neutralized using long-range PL-15E missiles launched from the PAF’s J-10C fleet.

The PL-15E, which is China’s most advanced air-to-air missile available for export, features a dual-pulse motor, achieves speeds over Mach 4, and is equipped with an AESA radar seeker, providing it with significant advantages in high-speed beyond-visual-range engagements.

Designed specifically to counter adversaries utilizing advanced AEW&C support and stealth technology, the PL-15 has emerged as a vital component of the airpower strategies of China and its allies, including the Pakistan Air Force.

Recent independent confirmations of Pakistan’s assertions have started to appear from international sources. According to U.S. officials familiar with the situation, ‘Pakistan’s J-10C fighters were credited with downing at least two Indian Air Force aircraft,’ as reported by Reuters. Additional validation came from CNN’s seasoned national security correspondent Jim Sciutto, who referenced French intelligence indicating that at least one Indian Rafale was shot down during these confrontations.

If confirmed, this would represent the first verified combat loss of a Rafale globally, significantly changing the narrative surrounding the aircraft’s perceived invincibility and ushering in a new era in contemporary air combat. India initially procured the Mirage 2000 from Dassault Aviation in the 1980s to enhance its strategic strike capabilities, with the aircraft demonstrating its effectiveness during the 1999 Kargil War in precision bombing operations in the Himalayas. The Indian Air Force currently operates approximately 50 Mirage 2000s across various models, including the single-seat 2000H and twin-seat 2000TH variants, primarily stationed at Gwalior Air Force Station in Madhya Pradesh. The elite Squadrons No. 1 ‘Tigers’ and No. 7 ‘Battle Axes’ are tasked with operating these legacy aircraft, which have received significant upgrades in avionics and weapon systems.

India’s Mirage 2000 aircraft have been upgraded with advanced electronic warfare capabilities, modern glass cockpits, and integration with MICA radar-guided beyond visual range missiles and AS-30L precision air-to-ground munitions, ensuring their effectiveness in contemporary aerial missions. Equipped with a single SNECMA M53-P2 engine that produces 95 kN of thrust with afterburner, the Mirage 2000 can exceed speeds of Mach 2.2 and has a combat radius of around 1,550 km, which can be increased with external fuel tanks or aerial refueling. With two DEFA 30mm cannons and the ability to carry a variety of air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons, the Mirage 2000 continues to be a versatile and formidable multirole fighter even after more than forty years of service.

However, if Pakistan’s assertion is proven true, the loss of a Mirage 2000, along with several Rafales, could indicate a significant change in the regional air power dynamics and highlight the growing threat posed by Chinese-supplied platforms and armaments to Western-supplied systems in South Asia.

Rafale Downed at 182km: Pakistan’s J-10C Deploys China’s PL-15 for a Record Kill

By
Anjum Nadeem
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Pakistani Air Force's Chengdu J-10C fighter

In what is being described as a pivotal moment in contemporary aerial combat, a Pakistan Air Force (PAF) J-10C allegedly shot down an Indian Air Force (IAF) Rafale from an impressive distance of 182 kilometers using the Chinese-made PL-15 Beyond Visual Range (BVR) air-to-air missile, as reported by sources.

If confirmed, this claim would establish a new world record for the longest air-to-air missile kill in aviation history, generating considerable interest among military and strategic analysts, although independent verification of the precise distance is currently lacking.

Earlier reports had indicated that a Russian Su-35S fighter jet successfully downed a Ukrainian MiG-29 at a range of 213 kilometers using the long-range hypersonic R-37M air-to-air missile, which is believed to have a maximum engagement range of up to 400 kilometers.

The PL-15, developed by the China Airborne Missile Academy (CAMA) under the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), is regarded as one of the most advanced BVR air-to-air missiles globally, competing with the American AIM-120D AMRAAM and the European MBDA METEOR in terms of range and electronic countermeasures capabilities.

The PAF’s J-10C, produced by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation (CAIG), is a 4.5-generation multirole fighter that plays a vital role in Pakistan’s airpower modernization efforts, particularly aimed at countering India’s Rafale fleet. During the reported incident, the Pakistani J-10C is said to have operated entirely within Pakistan’s sovereign airspace while launching the PL-15 missile that successfully targeted the IAF Rafale across the Line of Control during the initial exchanges of the India-Pakistan aerial conflict.

In the early days of the conflict between the two nuclear-capable South Asian nations, defense analysts referred to it as ‘the largest air battle in modern history,’ with approximately 125 fighter jets from both air forces engaging in simultaneous combat missions. As reported by CNN, this extraordinary aerial confrontation took place while both Indian and Pakistani aircraft operated within their own airspace, utilizing beyond visual range (BVR) tactics instead of conventional close-range dogfights.

A Pakistani security source stated that ‘fighter aircraft from both sides engaged each other in airspace separated by up to 160 kilometers, with missiles being launched well beyond visual range.’ The engagements were characterized by long-range precision strikes, with both nations employing AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radars, electronic warfare capabilities, and high-speed BVR missiles, focusing on radar locks and electronic signatures rather than visual identification.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar revealed that during the initial phase of the conflict, PAF fighters faced a contingent of 75 to 80 Indian jets in what he termed ‘the largest aerial confrontation in recorded history.’ He added, ‘We successfully downed five of those Indian fighter aircraft,’. Previous reports indicated that Pakistani jets, including the J-10C and JF-17 ‘Thunder,’ were armed solely with the PL-15E, a downgraded export version of the missile with a maximum effective range of 140 kilometers.

If the reported engagement distance of 182 kilometers is accurate, it strongly indicates that China has covertly provided Pakistan with the full-range domestic variant of the PL-15 missile. This variant is believed to have a strike range of up to 300 kilometers and is typically reserved for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). The domestic PL-15 is operationally integrated with advanced Chinese aircraft, including the stealthy fifth-generation J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon.’

However, recent reports suggest that the J-20 is starting to deploy an even more advanced air-to-air missile, the PL-17, which is thought to have an engagement range of up to 400 kilometers. The transfer of these sophisticated missiles to Pakistan seems to be part of Beijing’s strategic response to escalating tensions in the region, particularly following the recent conflict in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which brought India and Pakistan close to war.

Just days ago, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed that all five Indian Air Force aircraft downed by the Pakistan Air Force—three of which were Rafales—were engaged using the PL-15E missile from PAF J-10C fighters. Designed to reach speeds of Mach 4 and equipped with an AESA radar seeker, the PL-15 was specifically developed for beyond-visual-range (BVR) dominance, allowing its operator to strike first in contested airspace before the adversary can detect the launch platform.

Engineered for optimal lethality in the Beyond Visual Range (BVR) arena, the PL-15 equips both Chinese and now Pakistani aircraft with a vital strategic advantage, potentially altering the dynamics of air superiority in Asia. Numerous Western sources have supported Pakistan’s assertions, lending considerable credibility to its battlefield claims. Senior U.S. officials reportedly informed Reuters that ‘PAF J-10C fighters were responsible for downing at least two Indian Air Force jets,’ confirming the deployment of PL-15E missiles during the conflict.

It is reported that each of the five Indian aircraft was downed using PL-15E missiles, which have a maximum export range of 145 kilometers, although a record strike at 182 kilometers suggests otherwise. Jim Sciutto, CNN’s Chief National Security Correspondent, also verified through the social media platform X that French intelligence had confirmed the loss of at least one IAF Rafale during the engagement. If validated, this would represent the first operational loss of a Rafale fighter jet in any military conflict worldwide, undermining the aircraft’s previously impeccable combat record.

Despite increasing visual and electronic evidence, the Indian government and military persist in denying the loss of five fighter jets, including three Rafales, to Pakistan’s air-to-air missile attacks. When asked about the status of the missing Rafales, Air Marshal A.K. Bharti of the Indian Air Force responded enigmatically, ‘We are in a wartime scenario; losses are part of combat,’ without providing further details. For defense analysts, this vague response seems to indirectly validate what official statements refuse to accept—that India indeed lost five combat aircraft, including its esteemed Rafales.

The Pakistan Air Force reported that two aircraft, a MiG-29 and a Su-30MKI, were allegedly shot down, both of which are integral to India’s primary air defense capabilities. The PAF’s J-10C fighters were first delivered on March 4, 2022, with the initial six units arriving at Minhas Airbase in Kamra. They were officially integrated into the No. 15 ‘Cobras’ Squadron on March 11, 2022. This acquisition was largely seen as a strategic counter to India’s introduction of the Rafale, indicating Pakistan’s aim to sustain strategic balance in South Asia.

The J-10C, classified as a 4.5-generation fighter, is outfitted with state-of-the-art AESA radar, sophisticated electronic warfare systems, and is compatible with long-range munitions like the PL-15, rendering it a significant asset in contemporary aerial warfare.

Pakistan initially revealed plans to procure 25 J-10C aircraft in December 2021, with deliveries aligned with the Republic Day festivities on March 23, 2022. Since then, the nation has broadened its J-10C fleet and is currently engaged in advanced negotiations to secure up to 60 aircraft in total, a development that will greatly enhance the PAF’s deterrent capabilities and long-range air dominance in light of the region’s swiftly changing security landscape.

Trump announces that the US is nearing a nuclear agreement with Iran

By
Asif Shahid
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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks, on the day of Tulsi Gabbard's swearing in ceremony as Director of National Intelligence, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced that the United States is nearing a nuclear agreement with Iran, indicating that Tehran has tentatively accepted the terms.

During a Gulf tour, Trump stated, ‘We are engaged in serious negotiations with Iran aimed at achieving long-term peace.’ He added, ‘We are close to potentially finalizing a deal without resorting to other measures… There are two approaches to this situation: a favorable one and a violent one, and I prefer to avoid the latter.’

However, an Iranian source involved in the discussions noted that significant differences remain in the negotiations with the U.S. Oil prices dropped by approximately $2 on Thursday amid hopes for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that could lead to the easing of sanctions. Recent talks between Iranian and U.S. negotiators regarding Tehran’s nuclear program concluded in Oman on Sunday, with further discussions anticipated, as Iran publicly maintained its stance on continuing uranium enrichment.

The Trump administration presented Iran with a nuclear deal proposal during the fourth round of negotiations on Sunday, according to a U.S. official and two other sources familiar with the situation. Nevertheless, a senior Iranian official stated that Tehran had not received any new proposal from the United States to resolve the long-standing nuclear conflict, emphasizing that Iran would not compromise on its right to enrich uranium domestically. While both Tehran and Washington have expressed a preference for diplomatic solutions, they remain at odds over several critical issues that negotiators must navigate to achieve a new agreement and prevent potential military conflict.

In a recent NBC News interview, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indicated that Iran is open to a deal with the U.S. in exchange for the removal of economic sanctions.

Ali Shamkhani, an adviser, stated that Iran is committed to never developing nuclear weapons and eliminating its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. Iran will agree to enrich uranium solely to the lower levels necessary for civilian purposes and will permit international inspectors to oversee this process, according to NBC.

However, a senior Iranian official informed Reuters that the concept of sending enriched uranium above 5% is not new and has consistently been part of negotiations with the U.S. This official emphasized that it is a complex and technical matter that hinges on the other party’s willingness to effectively and verifiably lift sanctions on Iran.

red lines

Iranian authorities have repeatedly asserted that one of Tehran’s red lines is to reduce its highly enriched uranium stockpile to levels below those stipulated in the 2015 nuclear agreement with six world powers, which was abandoned by Trump in 2018.

U.S. officials have publicly insisted that Iran must cease uranium enrichment, a position that Iranian officials have labeled a ‘red line,’ asserting their right as a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Nevertheless, they have shown a readiness to lower the enrichment levels. Iranian authorities have indicated that the clerical establishment is willing to accept certain limitations on uranium enrichment, but in exchange, Tehran demands the removal of severe sanctions imposed since 2018 and solid guarantees that Trump will not withdraw from a nuclear agreement again.

Sources close to the negotiation team have indicated that while Iran is ready to make what it considers concessions, the challenge lies in America’s reluctance to lift significant sanctions in return.

Regarding the reduction of enriched uranium in storage, Iranian sources mentioned that Tehran seeks to have it removed in several phases, which America does not agree to. Additionally, there is a disagreement over the destination for the highly enriched uranium, the source added.

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