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India’s External Affairs Minister Visits France to Repair Ties Strained by Alleged Rafale “Performance” Issues ??

By
Anjum Nadeem
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Rafale fighter

India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, is set to embark on a significant diplomatic mission in France this week, a strategic visit that astute defense analysts view as an urgent effort to recalibrate a crucial partnership that has recently been strained by contentious allegations regarding the advanced French-made Rafale fighter jet.

This high-stakes diplomatic endeavor highlights growing geopolitical concerns and the rapid reassessment of global military technology, especially in the increasingly unstable Indo-Pacific region. In addition to the formal meetings at the Élysée Palace, the Indian foreign minister’s European agenda includes important stops in Belgium and Germany, indicating a broader, coordinated effort to strengthen New Delhi’s relationships with key European capitals amid rising regional and global uncertainties.

A recent statement from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, while framed in typical diplomatic niceties, provided a subtle insight into the underlying tensions: “Our relationship with France is founded on deep trust and strong commitment, where both nations collaborate closely across all areas of strategic and current significance, in addition to sharing similar perspectives on various regional and global matters.”

Nevertheless, this facade of diplomatic friendliness conceals a significant and rapidly expanding rift that directly arises from the intense India-Pakistan aerial confrontations of early May 2025, during which Islamabad boldly asserted that its Chinese-made Chengdu J-10C multi-role fighter jets successfully engaged and downed six Indian Air Force (IAF) aircraft, including an astonishing three Rafale fighters.

If these extraordinary claims by Pakistan are definitively verified, it would represent a pivotal and unprecedented moment in modern air combat, marking the first alleged combat losses of the highly acclaimed Rafale platform, a jet that has been extensively promoted for its superior multi-role capabilities and combat history.

Importantly, these contentious assertions from Pakistan were allegedly supported by intelligence evaluations from both American and French sources, which adds a troubling level of credibility to the claims, despite New Delhi’s steadfast denial. India’s persistent refusal to recognize any losses of Rafale aircraft, even amidst growing external validation and increasing analyses of satellite imagery, has sparked allegations of a calculated “cover-up” concerning the operational effectiveness of its esteemed French-manufactured combat jets.

The escalating debate has inevitably infiltrated India’s strong domestic political landscape, with a notable state minister and former Indian Air Force pilot, N. Uttam Reddy, openly urging Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s central government to demonstrate greater transparency about the purported shoot-downs, especially those related to the sensitive Rafale aircraft. Reddy, who holds the position of Minister of Irrigation and Public Supply in Telangana state, sharply criticized the Modi administration’s perceived lack of clarity, asserting: “We celebrate the safe return of Indian Air Force pilots after they successfully completed their missions.” He went on to deliver a significant political critique, stating, “However, the central government must clarify the reports suggesting that one of the country’s fighter jets was downed.” Reddy, a prominent member of India’s powerful opposition Congress party, further insisted at a prominent press conference in New Delhi, “The government must also reveal the number of Pakistani fighter jets that were successfully brought down.

Adding another layer of unsettling complexity to India’s meticulously curated narrative, General Anil Chauhan, the Chief of Defence Staff of India, recently made an unprecedented acknowledgment during an interview with Bloomberg in Singapore. He confirmed that the Indian Air Force (IAF) had indeed experienced aircraft losses in the recent aerial conflict with Pakistan, although he notably avoided disclosing the precise number or types of aircraft involved. This represented the first public admission of aerial combat losses by a senior Indian military official since the Pulwama incident.

However, the intentional omission of specific details continues to incite intense speculation and global scrutiny. General Chauhan, addressing the esteemed Shangri-La Dialogue, strategically shifted focus from the immediate combat results to a broader, more significant strategic issue, stating: “What is important is not whether the fighter jet went down, but why it went down.” While this remark may have been aimed at diverting attention from the reported losses, it inadvertently heightened existing concerns regarding the operational performance of the Rafale and the overall combat readiness of the IAF.

The already fragile strategic relationship between New Delhi and Paris is believed to have significantly worsened following ongoing reports that India allegedly declined a crucial request from Dassault Aviation, the esteemed manufacturer of the Rafale, to send an independent audit team to evaluate IAF Rafale aircraft in light of the post-conflict allegations. This unprecedented refusal by the Indian government to allow Dassault’s audit team has created palpable waves of concern throughout the global defense community, raising serious questions about transparency, accountability, and the fundamental trust dynamics within essential bilateral defense partnerships.

Intelligence assessments from a coalition of global sources, thoroughly validated by comprehensive open-source defense evaluations, consistently suggest that Dassault Aviation had indeed dispatched a specialized technical team to India with the clear and urgent aim of probing potential systemic weaknesses in the Rafale platform that could have led to the reported asset losses. Nevertheless, India is said to have denied this specialized team full access to the IAF’s frontline Rafale squadrons, sparking intense speculation among international defense circles that New Delhi is actively trying to conceal deeper, more systemic internal issues related to operational readiness, maintenance practices, and overall pilot competency standards.

The perceived reluctance arises from India’s supposed fear that Dassault Aviation might, during its assessment, link any identified Rafale performance issues not to the aircraft’s fundamental design or manufacturing, but instead to significant systemic failures within the IAF itself, including urgent concerns such as ongoing pilot shortages and chronic, long-standing maintenance delays. These underlying fears are indeed justified: a critical audit report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG), submitted to the Parliamentary Defence Committee months before the recent conflict, meticulously highlighted a severe deficit of 596 pilots within the IAF, a troubling figure that marks a notable increase from 486 in 2015. Efforts to train an anticipated 222 new pilots each year between 2016 and 2021 reportedly fell drastically short, worsening a serious human resource shortfall within India’s intricate air defense system and threatening future operational readiness.

Compounding this complex crisis, the IAF’s essential foundation for basic pilot training, the Swiss-manufactured Pilatus PC-7 Mk-II aircraft, has suffered from significant and recurring serviceability problems for several years, further hindering the steady and effective training of new aviators.

Additionally, the contentious Agnipath recruitment initiative, aimed at modernizing India’s armed forces, has brought about new uncertainties concerning the long-term retention of seasoned personnel and the development of combat-ready aviators, which could worsen the existing pilot shortage.

At the exact moment the conflict began, India had only 31 active fighter squadrons, which is critically below the minimum of 42 squadrons considered absolutely necessary by its own defense doctrine for a credible two-front deterrence strategy against both China and Pakistan. French officials are understandably expressing significant concern over the evolving situation, believing that the highly capable Rafale is being unfairly blamed for what they see as India’s broader, underlying structural military deficiencies, especially given the aircraft’s clearly demonstrated combat effectiveness in other challenging environments, including those in the Middle East and Libya, when properly integrated, meticulously maintained, and expertly operated. Nevertheless, this strategic deadlock is clearly not a one-sided issue; India, having long felt the strategic strain, has consistently raised public complaints regarding Dassault’s unwavering reluctance to grant full, unrestricted access to the Rafale’s highly sensitive avionics system source code – a deeply contentious matter that has lingered since the landmark US$8.7 billion purchase agreement was concluded in 2016.

Without this absolutely essential source code, Indian defense engineers are fundamentally unable to independently update software, seamlessly integrate indigenous weapon systems, or perform deep-level maintenance and future upgrades on the aircraft’s vital mission-critical systems. This situation severely impacts the nation’s strategic and operational sovereignty in real-time combat scenarios. This long-standing technical deadlock has now clearly escalated into a significant, geopolitically sensitive strategic liability, starkly highlighting the inherent limitations of external defense procurement without a comprehensive, reciprocal framework for genuine technology transfer and indigenous control.

Indian defense analysts, spanning the political spectrum, are increasingly viewing this as a clear, unmistakable sign that Western defense manufacturers prioritize the stringent protection of their intellectual property and proprietary technologies over ensuring the long-term combat capabilities and strategic autonomy of even their most crucial clients, such as India. Meanwhile, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has not hesitated to opportunistically exploit this perceived vulnerability, using it as a powerful propaganda tool to undermine India’s strategic standing and challenge the perceived superiority of Western military hardware. Following credible reports of India’s recovery of a relatively intact PL-15 missile, allegedly launched by a Pakistani fighter during the recent aerial engagements, China’s assertive “wolf warrior” diplomats took to prominent social media platforms, publicly mocking India’s defense capabilities and emphasizing its technological dependencies.

“India spent US$288 million for each Rafale, but they do not have access to the source code,” a Chinese official provocatively stated on Platform X, highlighting the deep-seated proprietary limitations.

The official further issued a sharp taunt: “They also assert their ability to ‘extract software’ from the remnants of the PL-15, despite their own inability to access the core system of their Rafale jets,” which highlights a perceived hypocrisy in India’s technological aspirations. While undeniably provocative and crafted for maximum rhetorical effect, these pointed remarks from China reveal a growing, uncomfortable truth: Chinese-made weapon systems, especially the advanced PL-15 beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM), are not just competitive but are demonstrating exceptional capabilities, potentially surpassing certain established Western systems in real combat situations. The PL-15, which is believed to have played a role in the alleged downing of Indian Rafale jets, features a miniaturized active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar seeker and employs a dual-pulsed solid-fuel rocket motor, enabling it to reach impressive speeds nearing Mach 5 and engage targets at distances greater than 200 kilometers (although the export variant, PL-15E, sold to Pakistan, reportedly has a range of 145 km). When effectively integrated with the advanced Chengdu J-10C multi-role platform, the PL-15 arguably provides the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) with a crucial “first-shot” advantage and superior kinematics over IAF aircraft, many of which still depend on older, less effective beyond-visual-range missiles like the MICA and early Meteor variants. For India, the deeply embarrassing possibility that its high-priced, top-tier Western Rafale jets could be outperformed by a Chinese-Pakistani system not only causes significant damage to its prestige but also fundamentally undermines its long-standing regional security doctrine and strategic procurement strategies.

For many years, India’s defense acquisition strategy has been firmly rooted in the belief that Western military systems offer a distinct technological advantage over adversaries primarily using Chinese or Russian-origin equipment. However, this deeply held strategic belief is now facing its most challenging, public, and potentially damaging real-world test, with significant implications for future global arms markets and the structure of strategic alliances. Although the alleged Rafale losses remain officially unverified by New Delhi, India’s ongoing, unequivocal refusal to allow an independent, third-party audit by Dassault raises critical questions regarding transparency, the validity of combat claims, and the trust dynamics between a major defense buyer and its long-term supplier. This ongoing issue has moved beyond the traditional boundaries of the military-industrial complex, escalating into a major, politically charged debate within India, as opposition parties revive longstanding accusations of financial misconduct in the Rafale acquisition and call for a thorough, independent performance audit of the aircraft in combat. The Indian Ministry of Defence is now under significant, sustained pressure to fundamentally reevaluate its future defense procurement strategy, carefully considering the tactical advantages of acquiring advanced foreign platforms against the pressing need for true strategic autonomy through strong indigenous production capabilities and genuine, comprehensive technology transfer. On the international stage, the geopolitical consequences are undeniably significant and intricate. For Pakistan, the combat effectiveness clearly demonstrated by its J-10C aircraft, equipped with the powerful PL-15, represents a notable strategic milestone in its ongoing effort to rebalance regional air power dynamics.

For China, the purported success of the PL-15 in combat acts as a significant, real-world endorsement of its swiftly evolving, integrated, and increasingly reliable arms export model, which is particularly attractive to developing countries in search of advanced military capabilities, often without the geopolitical stipulations that are commonly linked to Western systems.

On the other hand, established Western defense manufacturers such as Dassault Aviation are experiencing noticeable reputational harm, which may be exceptionally challenging to address in the long run; the Rafale, once celebrated as an almost unbeatable, top-tier multi-role platform, is now under uncomfortable examination not only from its geopolitical competitors but, more importantly, from its own discerning and increasingly skeptical clients.

Russia initiates one of the most extensive aerial assaults of the war on Kyiv

By
Hammad Saeed
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Firefighters work at the site of a Russian missile strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in central Sumy, Ukraine.

Russia executed one of its most significant air strikes on Kyiv in over three years of conflict, targeting a maternity ward in the southern city of Odesa, resulting in the deaths of at least three individuals, officials reported on Tuesday. These overnight strikes came after Russia‘s largest drone attack of the war on Ukraine on Monday and were part of a series of intensified bombings that Moscow claims are in retaliation for Ukrainian assaults on Russia.

The Russian offensive also caused damage to Saint Sophia Cathedral, a UNESCO world heritage site situated in the historic center of Kyiv, according to Ukrainian Culture Minister Mykola Tochytskyi. “The enemy has once again struck at the very core of our identity,” Tochytskyi stated on Facebook regarding the site he referred to as “the soul of all Ukraine.”

Loud explosions reverberated through Kyiv, and blasts and fires illuminated the sky in the early hours of Tuesday morning, leaving thick smoke hovering over the city, as reported by Reuters. Authorities dispatched two firefighting helicopters to extinguish the flames. One individual was reported dead in the attack on Kyiv, according to city authorities. At least four others received hospital treatment after seven of the capital’s ten districts were impacted, city officials indicated.

“Today marked one of the largest assaults on Kyiv,” stated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “Russian missile and Shahed (drone) strikes overshadow the efforts of the United States and other nations worldwide to compel Russia towards peace.”

In Kyiv, Kateryna Zaitseva, 38, and her 14-year-old son surveyed the debris in their apartment, which was directly hit by a drone. The explosion obliterated one room, damaged another, and forced open the bathroom door where they had taken refuge. “We began to move blindly towards the entrance door. I heard the voice of an emergency worker… I called out that there were two of us, that we were unharmed, and he assisted us,” recounted Zaitseva, a laboratory technician.

In the southern port city of Odesa, an overnight drone strike targeted an emergency medical facility, a maternity ward, and residential buildings, as reported by regional governor Oleh Kiper on Telegram. The attack resulted in the deaths of two men, but patients and staff were successfully evacuated from the maternity hospital, he stated.

Iryna Britkaru, 23, who gave birth to a girl on June 6, recounted that projectiles began striking the building in Odesa just as she and other patients were hurried to the basement by hospital personnel. “The third (impact) was already very loud, and shrapnel flew… (it) rained down in the corridor,” she told Reuters.

Natalia Kovalenko, 34, who also welcomed a girl five days prior, expressed her hope for an end to the war. “If we don’t have hope, then no one will be giving birth,” she remarked. Both parties deny targeting civilians, yet thousands of civilians have lost their lives in Europe’s most severe conflict since World War Two, with the vast majority being Ukrainian.

Russia’s defense ministry confirmed that its forces had struck military targets in Kyiv using high-precision weapons and drones overnight, as reported by Russia’s TASS state news agency.

Air raid alerts in Kyiv and most regions of Ukraine persisted for five hours, lasting until around 5 a.m. (0200 GMT), according to military information. “A difficult night for all of us,” Timur Tkachenko, head of Kyiv’s city military administration, stated on Telegram.

Ukraine’s air force reported that Russia had launched 315 drones across the nation, of which 277 were intercepted. All seven missiles fired by Russia were also shot down, it noted. Moscow has escalated its assaults on Ukraine following Kyiv’s strikes on strategic bombers at air bases within Russia on June 1.

Moscow further accused Kyiv of being responsible for bridge explosions on the same day that resulted in seven fatalities and numerous injuries. Over the past week, Russia has deployed 1,451 drones and 78 missiles in its attacks on Ukraine, according to data from the Ukrainian air force.

Russia has temporarily suspended flights overnight at four airports serving Moscow, at St Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport, and at airports in nine other cities following the defence ministry’s announcement that Ukraine had launched additional drones at Russia, according to officials. Most flights were resumed later on Tuesday, and no damage was reported. Zelenskiy has called on Ukraine’s allies to take measures to compel Russia towards peace, while Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has urged for immediate new sanctions and air defence systems. Despite Moscow and Kyiv having conducted two rounds of direct peace negotiations in recent weeks, the only significant outcome has been an agreement on prisoner of war exchanges, with Russia continuing its advance along the eastern Ukraine front line. Both Moscow and Kyiv hold each other responsible for the stagnation in efforts to end the war, which has persisted since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. U.S. President Donald Trump has voiced his frustration with both parties.

Russia outlines harsh conditions during peace negotiations with Ukraine

By
Hammad Saeed
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Ukrainian service members of the 25th Sicheslav Airborne Brigade fire a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launch system towards Russian troops near the frontline town of Pokrovsk, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine.

During peace talks on Monday, Russia informed Ukraine that it would only agree to conclude the war if Kyiv relinquishes significant new territories and accepts restrictions on the size of its military, as reported in a memorandum by Russian media. The conditions, formally presented during negotiations in Istanbul, underscored Moscow’s unwillingness to compromise on its long-standing war objectives, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls to end the “bloodbath” in Ukraine.

Ukraine has consistently dismissed the Russian demands as equivalent to capitulation. Delegations from both sides convened for just under an hour, marking only the second round of negotiations since March 2022. They reached an agreement to exchange additional prisoners of war, prioritizing the youngest and most critically injured, and to return the remains of 12,000 deceased soldiers.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan characterized the meeting as significant and expressed hope of facilitating a meeting between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Turkey alongside Trump.

However, no progress was made on a proposed ceasefire, which Ukraine, its European allies, and Washington have all urged Russia to accept. Moscow claims it is pursuing a long-term resolution rather than a mere pause in hostilities; Kyiv contends that Putin is not genuinely interested in peace. Trump has indicated that the United States is prepared to withdraw from its mediation efforts unless both parties show tangible progress towards an agreement.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who led Kyiv’s delegation, stated that Kyiv – which has developed its own peace plan – would assess the Russian proposal, although he did not provide immediate feedback on it.

Ukraine has suggested conducting additional discussions before the end of June; however, it believes that only a meeting between Zelenskiy and Putin can address the numerous contentious issues, according to Umerov. Zelenskiy mentioned that Ukraine has submitted a list of 400 children it claims have been taken to Russia, yet the Russian delegation has only agreed to work on the return of 10 of them. Russia contends that the children were relocated from conflict zones for their protection.

Russian demands

The Russian memorandum, released by the Interfax news agency, stated that resolving the war would necessitate international acknowledgment of Crimea – a peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 – along with four other regions of Ukraine that Moscow asserts as its territory. Ukraine would need to withdraw its military from all these areas.

It reiterated Moscow’s demands for Ukraine to become a neutral state – excluding NATO membership – and to safeguard the rights of Russian speakers, establish Russian as an official language, and implement a legal prohibition on the glorification of Nazism.

Ukraine dismisses the Nazi accusation as ludicrous and denies any discrimination against Russian speakers. Additionally, Russia has formalized its conditions for any ceasefire leading to a peace agreement, offering two options that both seem unacceptable to Ukraine.

The first option, as outlined in the text, involved Ukraine initiating a complete military withdrawal from the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Among these, Russia has total control over the first region but only occupies approximately 70% of the others.

The second option presented a package that would necessitate Ukraine to halt military redeployments and agree to a suspension of foreign military aid, satellite communications, and intelligence support. Additionally, Kyiv would be required to lift martial law and conduct presidential and parliamentary elections within a 100-day timeframe.

Vladimir Medinsky, the head of the Russian delegation, indicated that Moscow had also proposed a “specific ceasefire lasting two to three days in certain areas of the front” to facilitate the retrieval of deceased soldiers.

According to a roadmap proposed by Ukraine, Kyiv seeks to impose no limitations on its military capabilities following any peace agreement, no international acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty over territories in Ukraine occupied by Russian forces, and reparations.

Ukraine targeted Russian airfields

The conflict is escalating, with Russia initiating its largest drone assaults of the war and making its quickest advances on the battlefield in May in six months. On Sunday, Ukraine reported that it deployed 117 drones in an operation named “Spider’s Web” aimed at targeting Russian nuclear-capable long-range bombers at airfields in Siberia and the northern regions of the country.

Satellite images indicated that the attacks inflicted significant damage, although both sides provided differing accounts regarding the extent of the damage. Western military analysts characterized the strikes, occurring thousands of miles from the front lines, as one of the most daring Ukrainian operations during the war.

Russia’s strategic bomber fleet is part of the “triad” of forces—alongside ground-launched missiles and submarine-launched missiles—that constitute the nation’s nuclear arsenal, the largest globally. In light of Putin’s repeated warnings about Russia’s nuclear capabilities, the U.S. and its allies have remained cautious throughout the Ukraine conflict regarding the potential for it to escalate into World War Three.

A current U.S. administration official stated that Trump and the White House were not informed prior to the attack. A former administration official noted that Ukraine often refrains from disclosing its operational plans to Washington for security reasons. A UK government official also mentioned that the British government was not informed in advance.

Zelenskiy stated that the operation, which utilized drones hidden within wooden sheds, has contributed to rebuilding partners’ trust in Ukraine’s capability to persist in the conflict. “Ukraine asserts that we will not capitulate and will not yield to any ultimatums,” he remarked during an online news briefing.

“However, we do not seek to engage in combat, nor do we wish to showcase our power – we exhibit it only because the adversary refuses to cease.”

Rafale Controversy Ignites: Former Fighter Pilot Calls for Modi to Clarify Indian Air Force Losses

By
Hammad Saeed
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Retrieving wreckage of Indian Rafale fighter jet reportedly shot down by Pakistan in Aklian, Bathinda.

A political tempest is unfolding in India following shocking allegations that the nation’s esteemed Rafale fighter jets might have been downed by Pakistani aircraft amid recent cross-border conflicts. A senior minister from Telangana and ex-Indian Air Force (IAF) pilot is calling for complete transparency from the central government. N. Uttam Kumar Reddy, Telangana’s Minister for Irrigation and Civil Supplies and a leader of the Congress Party, has accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration of hiding vital information regarding supposed combat losses involving the IAF’s most advanced aircraft.

“We are pleased with the safe return of Indian Air Force pilots after they successfully completed their missions,” Reddy stated during a press conference in New Delhi. “However, the central government needs to clarify the reports that our fighter jet has been shot down.” “The government should also disclose how many Pakistani fighter jets were downed,” he continued, expressing skepticism about the narrative presented by the Modi-led BJP government concerning the ongoing conflict.

Reddy, a persistent critic of Modi’s BJP, charged the ruling party with politicizing genuine defense issues by labeling Congress Party leaders as “unpatriotic” whenever inquiries are made. “If our leader Rahul Gandhi had made the same statement, the BJP leaders would have initiated a significant campaign against him.” “Democratic accountability is essential in this operation. It should not be associated with patriotism.” “Will they question the patriotism of CDS Anil Chauhan? No one is more patriotic than the Gandhi family,” he contended.

Reddy also criticized Modi’s silence on controversial comments made by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who publicly mentioned an India-Pakistan ceasefire before it was officially declared by the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of both countries.

Reddy’s comments followed a shocking interview with Bloomberg in Singapore, where India’s Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Anil Chauhan, for the first time acknowledged that the IAF had indeed experienced aircraft losses during the recent confrontation with Pakistan. While General Chauhan did not disclose the exact number of aircraft lost, he confirmed the event, stating, “The key issue is not whether the aircraft was downed, but why it went down.”

He firmly rejected Pakistani assertions of having downed six IAF jets as “completely inaccurate,” yet he notably avoided providing any specific figures or alternative explanations. “Numbers are not important,” Chauhan emphasized, instead highlighting tactical errors: “What is good is that we understood the mistakes, corrected them, and within 48 hours launched retaliatory long-range precision strikes with all our fighters.”

These statements from India’s leading military figure seemed to support reports from Islamabad, where on May 17, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif claimed that Pakistan’s air force had shot down six Indian fighter jets during what is now considered the most intense aerial confrontation between the two nuclear-armed nations in recent history. The sixth aircraft, a Mirage 2000, was allegedly downed during nighttime operations on May 6–7 near Pampore, east of Srinagar, an area adjacent to the Line of Control.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs further asserted that three Rafales, one Su-30MKI, and a MiG-29 were shot down earlier in the conflict, all by PL-15E air-to-air missiles launched from Chinese-made J-10C fighters operated by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). “The much-hyped Rafale fighter jets have failed disastrously, and the Indian Air Force pilots have demonstrated a clear lack of proficiency,” stated Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.

According to various military sources, it appears that Indian aircraft were likely targeted and engaged by a mix of PAF J-10C and JF-17 “Thunder” fighters utilizing China’s PL-15 missile—one of the most sophisticated beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air weapons currently operational. The J-10C, created by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAIG), along with the JF-17, which is a collaborative effort between CAIG and Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), forms a fundamental part of Pakistan’s contemporary air combat fleet.

The PL-15 missile—thought to have been launched from distances of up to 182 km in certain encounters—is a Mach 4-class BVR weapon featuring an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar seeker, designed to compete with leading Western systems such as the AIM-120D AMRAAM and the MBDA Meteor.

In what some analysts now refer to as “the largest air battle in history,” approximately 125 combat aircraft from both sides were reportedly engaged in the initial confrontations, during which Pakistan reportedly achieved the advantage through precise long-range strikes from within its own airspace.

Despite a growing body of circumstantial and intelligence-backed evidence, New Delhi has yet to acknowledge the potential loss of as many as six fighter jets, including three Rafales—its most advanced multirole aircraft, procured from France as part of a prominent defense agreement. When questioned about the situation, IAF Air Marshal A.K. Bharti only stated, “We are in a wartime scenario. Losses are a part of battle,” a vague remark that many analysts have interpreted as an indirect acknowledgment of combat losses. On the international stage, these claims have surprisingly gained some validation.

Senior U.S. defense officials informed Reuters that Pakistani J-10Cs were “responsible for downing at least two Indian Air Force fighters,” a claim that was similarly supported by French intelligence agents. CNN’s seasoned national security correspondent Jim Sciutto shared on X that “at least one Rafale” had been shot down by Pakistan, referencing sources from French intelligence.

French officials are reportedly looking into the possibility that more than one Rafale was lost during the incident, a statement that—if validated—could significantly tarnish the Rafale’s standing in future export markets. CNN also indicated that American intelligence analysts have determined that “an Indian fighter jet was shot down during India’s air strikes into Pakistani territory,” although Washington has yet to confirm the specific weapons platform utilized by Pakistan.

A representative from France’s Ministry of Armed Forces confirmed that Paris is “in close communication with Indian authorities” to ascertain the status of the Rafale jets and comprehend the ramifications of their alleged combat performance. “We are undoubtedly in the fog of war and an intense information war,” the French spokesperson remarked, highlighting the increasing uncertainty within European defense circles.

“What we know for sure is that we still do not completely understand what has transpired. There are significant worries about the operational results related to the Rafale, and we are vigilantly observing the situation,” the spokesperson remarked.

If verified, the loss of even one Rafale would mark the first combat defeat for Dassault Aviation’s premier fighter since its introduction, sending ripples through the global defense market. Following the initial reports of losses, Dassault Aviation’s stock has dropped by 9.48% over the course of five days. In contrast, the shares of Avic Chengdu Aircraft Co., which manufactures the J-10C, have skyrocketed by an impressive 61.6% during the same timeframe—highlighting a worldwide reevaluation of aerial combat capabilities.

Indonesian defense officials, who are set to receive the Rafale in 2026, have allegedly expressed concerns regarding its performance on the battlefield and are now undertaking what they describe as a “legitimate and evidence-based reassessment” of the French platform’s survivability in contested airspace.

Without official confirmation from New Delhi, the regional strategic balance may now be shifting—if not in favor of Pakistan, then certainly against the narrative India has diligently constructed around the invulnerability of its Rafales.

Pakistan Addresses Indian Submarine Threats by Conducting Comprehensive Coastal War Exercises

By
Anjum Nadeem
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The Pakistan Navy has initiated an extensive two-day maritime exercise throughout its coastal and port facilities, enhancing its defensive stance against sub-conventional and asymmetric maritime threats—an urgency heightened by a history of Indian submarines persistently trying to infiltrate Pakistan’s territorial waters.

Taking place from June 1 to 2, 2025, the exercise occurred amid a tense military standoff between the nuclear-capable neighbors, following four days of continuous cross-border conflicts that included precision airstrikes, ballistic missile launches, armed drone incursions, and ongoing artillery exchanges along the Line of Control.

As stated by Commodore Ahmed Hussain, the Director General Public Relations for the Pakistan Navy, the exercise was meticulously crafted to “validate and refine tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) to ensure a strong defense of critical maritime infrastructure against evolving asymmetric threats.” The Navy emphasized that “the exercise involved coordinated operations by PN (Pakistan Navy) Fleet units, Pak Marines, SSG (Navy), and Naval Aviation assets,” showcasing the integration of operations across various domains to tackle the growing challenges of unconventional warfare.

Simulated threats encompassed infiltration by enemy special forces, underwater sabotage, drone swarm attacks, and coordinated multi-domain assaults—scenarios that are directly pertinent to the current Indian naval doctrine, which focuses on network-centric warfare and maritime coercion. These drills were conducted just 48 hours after Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh issued a stern warning that India would not hesitate to utilize its naval capabilities in response to “any future aggression by Pakistan,” a remark widely interpreted as a signal of increasing naval assertiveness in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

In response, Pakistan’s military reaffirmed its strong dedication to protecting its sovereignty and territorial integrity, referencing a previous statement from May 12 that cautioned about a “comprehensive and decisive” reaction to any infringement of its maritime boundaries.

Rear Admiral Faisal Amin, Commander Coast (COMCOAST), personally inspected various operational stations during the exercise and witnessed live-action simulations, which included port breach responses and underwater threat interception drills carried out by the Navy’s Special Services Group and anti-sabotage teams.

In his comments, Rear Admiral Amin commended the readiness and professionalism exhibited by the deployed forces and stressed that safeguarding port infrastructure—such as Gwadar and Karachi—is not merely a security issue, but a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economic resilience and the stability of its energy corridor under CPEC. “The Pakistan Navy is dedicated to maintaining a high level of readiness to address all types of threats and is continuously enhancing its ability to defend maritime frontiers against emerging challenges,” Commodore Hussain concluded.

This commitment is not just rhetorical—Pakistan has a longstanding history of intercepting Indian undersea assets attempting covert incursions into its territorial waters, with the most recent incident confirmed during Exercise SEASPARK-22 in March 2022. In that 2022 event, a Pakistan Navy anti-submarine warfare (ASW) unit successfully detected and tracked an Indian Kalvari-class diesel-electric submarine, which had tried to penetrate Pakistan’s maritime zone under the guise of war games and electronic silence.

The Indian submarine, operating at snorkel depth to recharge its lithium-ion batteries, was identified by Pakistan’s comprehensive maritime domain awareness network, which is believed to include P-3C Orion aircraft, towed sonar arrays, and seabed hydrophone sensors.

“Nevertheless, once again, through unwavering vigilance and professionalism, the Pakistan Navy has successfully thwarted an attempt by an Indian submarine to enter Pakistani waters,” stated the ISPR, highlighting that a comprehensive monitoring protocol was in effect. The statement further noted, “A strict monitoring watch and rigorous vigilance procedures were implemented. Consequently, the Pakistan Navy’s Anti-submarine warfare unit took the initiative and intercepted and tracked the latest Indian submarine, Kalvari, ahead of time.”

This incident in 2022 marked the fourth confirmed interception of an Indian submarine by Pakistan since 2016, following previous attempts in October 2019 and November 2016, which were also repelled by long-range maritime patrol assets and coastal sonar networks.

The Kalvari-class submarines are diesel-electric attack submarines derived from the French Scorpène-class design, built in India under Project-75. These submarines boast advanced stealth capabilities, including acoustic silencing techniques and low radiated noise levels, making them challenging to detect. They are equipped with heavyweight torpedoes and SM.39 Exocet anti-ship missiles, which enhance their offensive capabilities.

Additionally, the submarines incorporate the SUBTICS combat management system, which integrates all onboard sensors and weaponry for effective operation. The recurring incidents of underwater surveillance attempts indicate that a broader undersea shadow war is developing between India and Pakistan, with ramifications that extend beyond regional rivalry and impact global maritime stability in the Western Indian Ocean and Hormuz approaches.

Naval analysts emphasize that as both countries continue to expand their submarine fleets—India through future Project-75(I) SSNs and Arihant-class SSBNs, and Pakistan through its acquisition of eight Chinese Type 039B Hangor-class SSKs—submerged confrontations are expected to increase in both frequency and complexity.

These changing dynamics highlight the growing necessity for strong command-and-control systems, strategic restraint, and open military-to-military communication channels to prevent unintended escalation in the maritime sphere, where transparency is fundamentally restricted.

As Pakistan indicates its intention to fortify its coastline and vital sea routes against grey-zone activities, the recent military exercises and incidents involving Indian submarines serve as a clear reminder that South Asia’s most perilous flashpoint may now be submerged beneath the surface.

India’s submarine fleet acts as the silent spearhead of the country’s maritime deterrence strategy, integrating legacy Soviet vessels, contemporary French-origin diesel-electric submarines, and a developing yet formidable indigenous nuclear submarine capability. With a combination of conventional and nuclear-powered assets, the Indian Navy’s submarine fleet is designed to execute multi-domain operations that range from sea denial and anti-surface warfare to second-strike nuclear deterrence and ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) missions throughout the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

As of mid-2025, the Indian Navy operates a fleet of 17 submarines—consisting of 15 diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs) and two nuclear-powered vessels—establishing itself as a powerful undersea force in the Indian Ocean Region.

At the forefront of India’s traditional undersea capabilities are six Kalvari-class submarines, which are based on the French Scorpène design and constructed domestically under Project-75. Five vessels—INS Kalvari, Khanderi, Karanj, Vela, and Vagir—are currently operational, while the sixth, INS Vagsheer, is in the process of sea trials and is expected to be commissioned by the end of 2025.

Equipped with Exocet anti-ship missiles and heavyweight torpedoes, the later Kalvari units are anticipated to feature air-independent propulsion (AIP), which will greatly improve their endurance and stealth in littoral combat zones. Additionally, India operates eight upgraded Kilo-class submarines, referred to locally as the Sindhughosh-class, which were acquired from Russia between the late 1980s and early 2000s. Despite their age, ongoing mid-life refits and the integration of Club-S cruise missiles have maintained their effectiveness in strike and patrol missions.

Complementing these submarines are four German-made Type 209/1500 submarines, known as the Shishumar-class, which are primarily utilized for training and coastal defense, with one unit recently undergoing life-extension upgrades. India’s nuclear deterrent at sea is represented by the Arihant-class SSBNs, which constitute the maritime component of its strategic triad.

INS Arihant, which has been operational since 2016, is equipped with K-15 SLBMs (with a range of 750 km), while her successor, INS Arighat, is in the final stages of outfitting and is expected to carry K-4 SLBMs with an extended range of up to 3,500 km.

Regarding nuclear attack capabilities, India once operated the INS Chakra II, a leased Akula-class SSN from Russia, which was returned in 2021. Currently, there are plans to lease another Akula-class submarine (Chakra III), while India is also developing six indigenous SSNs as part of a Strategic Forces Command initiative, designed to be the core hunter-killer component of its future undersea fleet.

The next significant advancement for India—Project-75I—aims to procure six advanced SSKs equipped with AIP and vertical launch systems for BrahMos-class cruise missiles, although there are ongoing procurement delays. The contenders for this project include platforms from South Korea, Russia, Germany, and Spain, with a final decision anticipated between 2025 and 2026. Although India’s submarine fleet lags behind China in terms of numbers, it benefits from improved network integration, long-range maritime patrol aircraft (P-8I Poseidon), and an increasing capacity for indigenous production.

Concurrently, as geopolitical competition escalates in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), Pakistan is reinforcing its undersea warfare capabilities by modernizing its submarine fleet—quietly yet decisively strengthening its sea-denial strategy and nuclear second-strike deterrent. Central to Pakistan’s undersea warfare strategy is a combination of legacy platforms designed in France and a new generation of modern Chinese submarines—together forming a credible, multi-layered force capable of surveillance, interdiction, and strategic deterrence across critical maritime chokepoints.

At present, the Pakistan Navy has five active diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs): three upgraded Agosta-90B (Khalid-class) submarines equipped with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems, and two older Agosta-70 (Hashmat-class) submarines, which mainly serve in training and support functions. The Agosta-90B class, which includes PNS Khalid, PNS Saad, and PNS Hamza, constitutes the backbone of Pakistan’s submarine fleet. These vessels, with a submerged displacement of approximately 2,000 tonnes, were built with French collaboration in the late 1990s and early 2000s and are equipped with MESMA AIP modules, greatly enhancing their underwater endurance compared to conventional diesel-electric models.

All three submarines have received significant mid-life upgrades as part of a $350 million agreement with Turkey’s STM (Savunma Teknolojileri Mühendislik), incorporating advanced sonar systems, combat management systems, electronic warfare enhancements, new periscopes, and fire-control systems that are compatible with heavyweight torpedoes and submarine-launched cruise missiles.

On the other hand, the Agosta-70 class, which includes PNS Hashmat and PNS Hurmat, was commissioned in the late 1970s and continues to operate, reportedly being utilized for secondary operational roles and training purposes. Nevertheless, the focal point of Pakistan’s submarine modernization initiative is the upcoming introduction of eight Hangor-class submarines, based on the Chinese Type 039B (Yuan-class) design—a stealth-optimized, AIP-equipped platform anticipated to transform the regional underwater balance.

Under a 2015 agreement between Islamabad and Beijing, valued at around $4–5 billion, four submarines are being constructed in China, while the other four are being built at Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW) as part of a technology transfer arrangement. By 2025, the first two submarines—PNS Hangor and PNS Shushuk—have already been launched at Chinese shipyards, with deliveries expected by late 2025 and 2026, respectively.

These Hangor-class submarines, with a displacement of around 2,800 tonnes, are said to be designed to carry the Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM)—a nuclear-capable system boasting an estimated range of 450 km, which provides Pakistan with a credible second-strike capability from underwater platforms.

Fitted with sophisticated passive/active sonar systems, integrated combat systems, and long-endurance AIP modules, the Hangor-class will enable the Pakistan Navy to sustain a continuous undersea presence throughout the Arabian Sea and into the Strait of Hormuz.

This new generation of submarines will greatly enhance Pakistan’s capacity to execute area denial operations, strategic ISR, and deterrent patrols deep within contested maritime regions—especially in reaction to Indian Navy deployments and joint exercises with QUAD nations.

Simultaneously, Pakistan is advancing its anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities through the use of P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft, unmanned undersea sensors, and an expanding network of surface combatants to safeguard its own fleet and counter enemy incursions—particularly in light of repeated incidents of Indian submarine detection in 2016, 2019, and most recently in 2022.

The leadership of Pakistan’s navy has consistently emphasized the strategic importance of submarines in protecting vital sea lanes and deterring hostile naval activities near Gwadar Port, which is a crucial component of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Considering the swift modernization of the Indian Navy’s own undersea capabilities—including Kalvari-class (Scorpène) submarines and a growing nuclear fleet—Pakistan’s focus on indigenous construction, AIP technology, and the integration of strategic weapons signifies a purposeful transition towards enhanced survivability, autonomy, and technological equivalence.

By the end of the decade, the Pakistan Navy is anticipated to operate at least 11 modern submarines, the majority of which will be AIP-capable, positioning it as one of the most formidable undersea forces in the region, particularly when compared to its relative size and conventional capabilities.

THE BEAST REVEALED: A Leaked Front Image of the J-36 Showcases China’s Stealth Colossus in Stunning Detail

By
Anjum Nadeem
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China's J-36

In a development that could greatly change global views on China’s aerospace goals, recently shared front-facing images and video footage have provided the most comprehensive and revealing look yet at the Chengdu J-36 sixth-generation fighter, offering unprecedented insight into its design and configuration.

The front-facing visuals and images of the J-36 seem to validate long-held theories among defense analysts that the aircraft incorporates a prominent “bubble canopy,” which is significantly larger and wider than anticipated, situated over the nose section of the aircraft. This design strongly indicates a twin-crew setup, consistent with previous reports suggesting that the J-36 will be operated by two pilots—a configuration reminiscent of traditional heavy strike fighters like the General Dynamics F-111 Aardvark and Russia’s Su-34 Fullback.

Developed by Chengdu Aircraft Group (CAG), the same defense contractor behind the J-10C and J-20 stealth fighters, the J-36 appears to symbolize the pinnacle of Chinese efforts to advance to the forefront of next-generation air combat. “The new images reinforce the idea that China is no longer satisfied with merely following—it aims to lead the sixth-generation fighter competition,” a Western aerospace analyst remarked to Defence Security Asia.

From a design perspective, the J-36’s impressive scale becomes strikingly evident in the leaked footage, which showcases its tailless airframe, broad fuselage, and modified double-delta wing design. As is typical with many stealthy tailless platforms, the aircraft seems deceptively compact when viewed from the side, but its true size is clear in head-on or top-down views, highlighting the mass and design intricacy of this tactical warplane.

Although its delta-planform has been observed before, the latest head-on images showcase a notable increase in airframe volume, suggesting ample internal capacity for weapon bays, avionics, and extra fuel—features that are consistent with heavy multirole and long-range strike missions.

Reports indicate that the J-36 completed its first flight on December 26, 2024, yet no official statement was issued by Chinese state media, which reflects Beijing’s enduring strategy of maintaining secrecy regarding sensitive defense projects. Even in the absence of formal confirmation, this flight represents a significant achievement in China’s rapid efforts to bridge the capability divide with U.S. and European sixth-generation aircraft programs.

Initial evaluations estimate the J-36 to be around 72 feet in length with a wingspan of 66 feet, positioning it firmly within the same weight and performance class as the U.S. Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platform and Europe’s Tempest/FCAS initiatives.

Current full-scale flight tests are reportedly aimed at confirming the aircraft’s Electronic Data Control System (EDCS), which serves as the digital foundation for its sophisticated mission systems, as well as its multi-mode flight capabilities across different operational scenarios.

The aircraft is currently undergoing extensive weapons integration testing, which includes its side-mounted Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar—likely providing wide-angle target acquisition—and a low-observable fuselage design optimized for high survivability in contested airspace.

In a notable departure from Western sixth-generation prototypes that usually utilize twin engines, the J-36 is said to have a triple-engine setup—this design aims to achieve higher thrust, increased payload capacity, and a longer range without the need for aerial refueling.

Defence analysts estimate that the J-36 can reach speeds of up to 2,900 km/h at an altitude of 11,500 meters, with supercruise capabilities in the 2,100–2,200 km/h range—indicating a strong focus on penetration and strike capabilities in heavily defended airspace.

The operational ceiling is estimated to be between 20,000 and 21,000 meters, while the internal weapons load is believed to be between 10 to 13 tonnes, providing it with both air dominance and precision strike flexibility.

The J-36 is reportedly being developed at a classified facility located approximately six nautical miles from downtown Chengdu—an ultra-secure aerospace manufacturing complex operated by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), which has a long history of involvement in black project aircraft development.

The timing and quality of the leaked video have raised concerns within the global intelligence community, leading to speculation about whether the footage was an accidental leak or a meticulously planned psychological operation intended to influence regional threat perceptions.

While Beijing has historically maintained stringent control over sensitive military information, the filming angle and strategic timing of the J-36’s low-altitude approach over an urban highway imply that the release may have been authorized by high-ranking officials within the Chinese military-industrial complex.

Some analysts view the leak as a calculated action by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) to convey both intent and capability, especially considering the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China and the upcoming introduction of the U.S. Air Force’s NGAD fighter. Regardless of whether it was intentional, the brief clip provides a rare and unfiltered look at the design of one of the most clandestine fighter programs globally—an aircraft that has been engaged in high-speed taxi trials, ground-based avionics assessments, and likely simulated combat scenarios for several months.

Recent intelligence indicates that the J-36 will feature AI-assisted avionics, advanced sensor fusion, and manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) capabilities—key elements of sixth-generation doctrine focused on information dominance, electronic warfare superiority, and adaptive mission control. As air combat evolves towards autonomy, multi-domain integration, and deep-penetration strikes, the emergence of the J-36 signals China’s intention to match or surpass Western advancements in future air dominance systems.

With these capabilities, the J-36 is poised to be a potential rival to the U.S. NGAD, Europe’s Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), and the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS)—igniting a new chapter of aerospace competition in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

As of now, China has not released any official public statement affirming the existence or objectives of the J-36 programme. Nevertheless, both leaked video footage and commercial satellite images present strong evidence that development and testing are progressing swiftly.

The competition for sixth-generation air superiority is no longer a theoretical concept—it is actively in progress. Complicating this evolving threat landscape, it is also believed that China is working on a distinct sixth-generation fighter known as the ‘J-50,’ under the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC).

In April, a four-second video gained widespread attention on Chinese social media, showing the J-36 nearing a clandestine airfield—thought to be the Chengdu Aerospace Manufacturing Facility—just prior to landing. The low-resolution video, recorded from inside a civilian vehicle, showcased the J-36 flying low over a busy city expressway, providing the clearest visual representation to date of the aircraft’s flight characteristics and design features.

This sighting is thought to have taken place at one of China’s most secretive aerospace centers, situated in Sichuan province, which is central to Beijing’s sixth-generation air combat development framework. As China confidently advances into the sixth-generation domain, the global strategic equilibrium in air power may soon enter its most significant transformation in decades.

Iran is set to reject the US nuclear proposal, according to an Iranian diplomat

By
Hammad Saeed
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Iran is set to dismiss a U.S. proposal aimed at resolving a long-standing nuclear conflict, according to an Iranian diplomat on Monday, who criticized it as a “non-starter” that does not cater to Tehran’s interests and keeps Washington’s position on uranium enrichment unchanged.

“Iran is preparing a negative reply to the U.S. proposal, which may be seen as a rejection of the U.S. offer,” the senior diplomat, who is affiliated with Iran’s negotiating team, informed Reuters.

The U.S. proposal for a new nuclear agreement was delivered to Iran on Saturday by Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, who was visiting Tehran briefly and has been facilitating nuclear discussions between Tehran and Washington.

However, after five rounds of negotiations involving Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to address the nuclear impasse, numerous issues remain unresolved.

One of the main points of contention is Iran’s refusal to comply with a U.S. demand to abandon uranium enrichment, which is seen as a potential route to developing nuclear weapons. Tehran asserts that its goal is to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful applications and has consistently denied Western allegations of pursuing nuclear armament.

“In this proposal, the U.S. position on enrichment within Iranian territory remains the same, and there is no definitive clarification regarding the lifting of sanctions,” stated the diplomat, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue.

Tehran insists on the immediate removal of all U.S.-imposed restrictions that hinder its oil-dependent economy. Conversely, the U.S. maintains that the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions should occur gradually.

Since 2018, numerous Iranian entities crucial to the nation’s economy, including its central bank and national oil company, have faced sanctions for allegedly “supporting terrorism or weapons proliferation.”

Trump’s reintroduction of a “maximum pressure” strategy against Tehran since his return to the White House in January has involved stricter sanctions and threats to bomb Iran if ongoing negotiations do not result in an agreement. During his first term, Trump abandoned Tehran’s 2015 nuclear agreement with six nations in 2018 and reinstated sanctions that have devastated Iran’s economy.

In response, Tehran has swiftly breached the limitations set by the 2015 nuclear agreement regarding its nuclear program. The 2015 accord mandated that Iran take measures to limit its nuclear activities in exchange for relief from U.S., EU, and U.N. economic sanctions.

According to a diplomat, the evaluation from “Iran’s nuclear negotiations committee,” overseen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is that the U.S. proposal is “entirely one-sided” and does not align with Tehran’s interests.

Consequently, the diplomat stated that Tehran views this proposal as a “non-starter” and believes it attempts to impose a “bad deal” on Iran through unreasonable demands.

Last week, two Iranian officials informed Reuters that Iran might halt uranium enrichment if the U.S. releases frozen Iranian assets and acknowledges Tehran’s right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes as part of a “political deal” that could pave the way for a more comprehensive nuclear agreement.

Drone attacks prior to the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations put Trump’s credibility at risk.

By
Asif Shahid
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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump attends a wreath laying ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery ahead of the presidential inauguration in Arlington, Virginia, U.S.

It was already difficult to envision a breakthrough resulting from the renewed direct talks between Russia and Ukraine scheduled to take place in Istanbul on Monday. However, following what seem to be multiple large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes targeting strategic bases throughout Russia, it is even less probable that either side will be willing to alter their red lines.

Prior to the recent strikes, which aimed at Russian strategic aircraft located thousands of miles from the Ukrainian border, the Kremlin had refrained from formally outlining, through an agreed memorandum, what it specifically desires in exchange for concluding what it terms its ‘Special Military Operation’. Nevertheless, Russian officials have been transparent about their stringent demands, which include sovereignty over all annexed territories, the demilitarization of Ukraine, immediate relief from sanctions, and what the Kremlin refers to as ‘de-Nazification’, which encompasses ensuring the rights of Russian speakers.

Concerns regarding further NATO expansion towards Russian borders – particularly with respect to Ukraine, as well as other nations – have consistently been a point of contention for the Kremlin, alongside the issue of hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets overseas. Speculation has arisen in both Russian and Western media regarding potential negotiation areas, and the results of the Istanbul discussions are being closely monitored for any signs of flexibility.

However, in light of what seems to be a remarkable Ukrainian achievement, discussions of Kremlin concessions may currently be off the table. Ukraine enters this second round of direct negotiations strengthened by its apparent success in destroying Russian strategic bombers and other vital air assets. On Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky articulated some of Ukraine’s positions, which include an unconditional ceasefire and the repatriation of Ukrainian children taken to Russia.

However, Russia’s insistence that Ukrainian forces retreat from territories it claims but has yet to conquer remains unacceptable, especially now that Ukraine has demonstrated its capability to strike deep behind enemy lines.

Prior to the recent Ukrainian drone attacks, and while preparations for peace talks in Istanbul were underway, Russia intensified its assaults on Ukraine, indicating the potential onset of a new summer offensive. On Saturday night, Russia executed its most extensive drone assault on Ukraine since the war began, deploying 472 drones.

The following day, a Russian missile strike resulted in the deaths of at least 12 individuals and left over 60 injured at a Ukrainian military training facility. Amid these developments, a visibly frustrated US President Donald Trump, who previously claimed he could swiftly resolve the Ukraine conflict, now finds himself observing from the sidelines as a key aspect of his foreign policy appears increasingly unstable.

Neither his pressure on the Ukrainian president, whom Trump criticized in the Oval Office, nor his recent admonishments directed at the Kremlin leader seem to have brought the two parties any closer to achieving a peace agreement. Trump still possesses significant options to influence the situation if he decides to act, such as implementing stringent new sanctions, which have garnered overwhelming support in the US Senate, or modifying US military assistance in a manner that would substantially raise the costs of continued fighting. While these actions may not be conclusive, they would convey a strong message of US commitment.

What Trump claims he is tempted to do, however, is simply abandon the entire situation. He asserts that this is Biden’s war, or that of Putin and Zelensky. Yet, walking away – and the implications of that for US policy remain uncertain – may no longer be feasible. At least not without consequences.

His persistent call for an end to the Ukraine conflict, coupled with his direct engagements with both Ukrainian and Russian leaders, signifies that Trump and the United States are now deeply intertwined with the outcome. This is why developments on the battlefield and at the negotiating table in Istanbul are being monitored so intently.

Despite his frequent efforts to distance himself from it, the Ukraine war has undeniably become Trump’s war, and US credibility now hangs by a precarious thread.

Ukraine targets Russian bomber bases using a swarm of FPV drones

By
Hammad Saeed
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0

Ukraine has initiated what seems to be its most extensive drone operation to date, targeting two significant Russian air bases that accommodate strategic bombers utilized in long-range assaults on Ukrainian cities. The attack on June 1 focused on the Olenya and Belaya airfields, located deep within Russian territory, as confirmed by Ukrainian sources.

According to information provided by Ukrainian officials, the operation employed swarms of FPV drones that were remotely launched from vehicles stationed near the airfields. These mobile platforms were reportedly positioned close to the targets, allowing for direct line-of-sight control to ensure accurate navigation and terminal strikes.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is managing this initiative as part of an ongoing special operation codenamed “Pavutyna” — or “Web” — which aims to diminish Russia’s long-range strike capabilities. “This is a coordinated effort to eliminate enemy aircraft that persist in attacking our civilian infrastructure nightly,” stated a Ukrainian official familiar with the operation.

Ukrainian sources assert that the drone strike damaged or destroyed over 40 aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers, along with at least one A-50 airborne early warning aircraft. Footage released to the public depicts burning Tu-95 bombers on the airfield aprons, with secondary explosions observable in various locations.

Open-source videos captured by local residents seem to corroborate the timing and location of the strikes. Later in the day, Ukrainian defense channels shared further visual evidence showing smoldering Russian aircraft engulfed in flames.

The extent of the damage has yet to be independently confirmed; however, estimates from Ukrainian sources suggest that Russian losses exceed $2 billion. If validated, this would mark the most significant blow to Russia‘s strategic aviation capabilities since the onset of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

The Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers involved in the attack are key assets utilized by the Russian Aerospace Forces for launching cruise missiles at Ukrainian urban areas. Their elimination could momentarily hinder Russia’s capacity to execute deep strikes from a distance.

Fog of Denial: The Rafale Controversy in India Escalates as Western Allies Seek Clarifications

By
Anjum Nadeem
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Retrieving wreckage of Indian Rafale fighter jet reportedly shot down by Pakistan in Aklian, Bathinda.

Following a highly embarrassing series of reported aerial losses in the recent conflict with Pakistan, India‘s decision to deny French auditors access to its Rafale fleet has raised significant concerns within the global defense community.

Sources from international defense media and open-source intelligence channels suggest that Dassault Aviation, the French manufacturer of the Rafale fighter jet, sent an investigative audit team to India to assess whether systemic aircraft issues played a role in the alleged shootdowns.

However, reports indicate that the Indian government has obstructed the team’s access to its Rafale squadrons, leading to speculation that New Delhi is concealing deeper operational weaknesses from external examination.

On May 17, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif claimed that his country’s air force had downed six IAF fighters during what has escalated into the most serious military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors in nearly two decades. Earlier statements from Pakistan asserted five additional kills, including three Rafale multirole fighters, one Su-30MKI, and one MiG-29—all reportedly shot down by advanced Chinese-built PL-15E missiles launched from J-10C fighters operated by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).

Subsequently, the Prime Minister noted that the sixth Indian fighter aircraft downed was a Mirage 2000, which Pakistan asserts was brought down by PAF fighters during a nighttime operation over Pampore, east of Srinagar, between May 6 and 7. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar stated, “The much-hyped Rafales have failed catastrophically, and Indian Air Force pilots have proven to be unskilled,” intensifying the psychological and diplomatic aspects of the conflict.

Regional defense sources indicate that the downed aircraft were likely targeted by PAF-operated J-10C or JF-17 Block III fighters, both utilizing the long-range PL-15 BVR missile developed by China’s Airborne Missile Academy.

The J-10C, created by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAIG), represents the forefront of China’s fourth-generation-plus fighter design, while the JF-17 ‘Thunder’—a collaborative effort between CAIG and Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC)—has become the cost-effective backbone for Islamabad’s multirole air operations.

Reports indicate that some IAF aircraft may have been engaged from standoff distances of up to 182 kilometers, fully leveraging the PL-15’s estimated range of 200–300 km and its AESA radar-guided seeker, which offers a high probability of kill in beyond-visual-range (BVR) scenarios.

The initial air clash between the two rival air forces has been characterized by observers as ‘the largest dogfight of the 21st century,’ involving around 125 fighters from both sides and testing the boundaries of networked warfare, air-to-air missile envelopes, and tactical coordination.

competency of Indian pilots

Analysts believe that PAF’s J-10C fighters may have conducted these engagements while remaining within Pakistani airspace, launching PL-15s at Indian Rafales during the early stages of hostilities, demonstrating a new level of air dominance without infringing on territorial boundaries.

In the background, analysts indicate that India is concerned the French might attribute the reported shortcomings of the Rafale not to the aircraft itself, but rather to the competency of Indian pilots, deficiencies in maintenance, and structural readiness challenges that have affected the Indian Air Force (IAF) for more than a decade.

These concerns are grounded in reality. A critical report from the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India, along with the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence—published mere months prior to the conflict—verified that the IAF was facing a deficit of 596 pilots, an increase from the 486 reported in 2015. The report also disclosed that efforts to recruit and train an additional 222 pilots between 2016 and 2021 were unsuccessful, exacerbating the IAF’s operational deficiencies.

Further complicating the situation was the inadequate serviceability of India’s Pilatus PC-7 Mk-II trainer fleet, a vital Swiss-built asset for pilot training, with ongoing delays hampering basic readiness. During the Pakistan conflict, the IAF had only 31 operational fighter squadrons—significantly below the 42 squadrons required by Indian military doctrine—leaving the force perilously under-resourced for sustained high-tempo combat.

French defense officials are rightly worried that their aircraft are being unjustly blamed for failures stemming from structural problems within the Indian military framework—especially since Rafales, when utilized correctly with adequate integration, maintenance, and training, have demonstrated their effectiveness in other combat scenarios.

Rafale source code issue

However, the blame has become reciprocal. India, exasperated by persistent limitations, has renewed its public criticism of Dassault’s unwillingness to grant access to the Rafale’s source code—an issue that has persisted since the signing of the $8.7 billion acquisition agreement in 2016. Without this source code, Indian engineers cannot carry out essential software modifications, update mission systems, or incorporate indigenous weaponry without French consent—severely undermining sovereign control over a frontline fighter in a conflict area.

This lack of access has evolved into more than just a technical complaint; it has transformed into a strategic disadvantage. Critics within Indian defense circles contend that this raises a larger issue regarding whether Western arms suppliers are genuine partners or merely vendors safeguarding proprietary systems at the expense of India’s operational independence. Adding a geopolitical edge to the controversy, Chinese commentators have seized the chance to deride New Delhi’s situation.

After the conflict, during which at least one largely intact PL-15 air-to-air missile was reportedly retrieved by India following an engagement with Pakistan’s Chinese-manufactured J-10C fighters, Chinese “wolf warrior” diplomats took to social media to ridicule the Indian Air Force. “India spent $288 million per Rafale, and they don’t even have access to the source code,” one Chinese official posted on X. “These Indians also assert they can ‘extract the software’ from the charred remains of a PL-15 missile. Yet, they can’t even access the core functionalities of their own Rafale jets?

Although the remark was sharp, it highlighted a changing strategic environment where systems built in China are not only competitive in operations but, in certain instances, surpass their Western counterparts in combat situations. The PL-15, which is said to have been involved in several Rafale shootdowns, stands as China’s leading beyond-visual-range missile, utilizing AESA radar with a projected range of over 200 km. Integrated into Pakistan’s J-10C—an aircraft developed with significant Chinese technical collaboration—the PL-15 provides the Pakistan Air Force with a considerable advantage in first-strike capabilities against Indian aircraft that still depend on older Meteor and MICA systems.

For India, the prospect that Chinese-manufactured jets and missiles could outperform Western-supplied Rafales in combat is not only embarrassing but also poses a strategic threat. For many years, India’s defense procurement strategy has been based on the belief that advanced Western systems would offer a qualitative superiority over adversaries that rely on Chinese and Russian technology. This assumption is now facing a critical reassessment.

Even if the Rafales were not destroyed, the fact that Dassault attempted to conduct an investigation—and that India obstructed it—highlights the growing trust deficit between the manufacturer and the end-user.

This rift has also taken on a political dimension. Opposition parties in India have capitalized on the Rafale issue to revive claims of procurement irregularities, asserting that the aircraft’s combat shortcomings are indicative of deeper flaws in the acquisition process. The Ministry of Defence is now confronted with a troubling reality: the conflict with Pakistan has revealed the Indian Air Force’s fragile readiness, procurement weaknesses, and insufficient operational depth.

High-level discussions are now underway regarding whether future acquisitions should prioritize strengthening domestic capabilities—through local development and technology transfer—rather than depending on Western suppliers who are hesitant to cede control over essential systems.

worldwide ramifications

Beyond India, the ramifications of the war are felt worldwide. For Pakistan, the operational capability of its J-10C fighters equipped with PL-15s signifies a monumental change in regional deterrence, affirming a procurement strategy based on strategic collaboration with Beijing.

For China, the effectiveness of the PL-15 serves as a clear validation of its arms export strategy—affordable, integrated, and increasingly deadly. Meanwhile, for Western aerospace leaders like Dassault, the repercussions are profoundly detrimental. The Rafale, previously promoted as a top-tier multirole platform adept at countering fourth- and fifth-generation threats, now faces scrutiny—not only from adversaries but also from its own clients.

Ultimately, regardless of whether India’s shortcomings were due to training deficiencies, inadequate maintenance, or inherent limitations of the Rafale, the strategic outcome is clear. India did not achieve air superiority in a conflict it thought it was technologically equipped to win.

Consequently, New Delhi must confront a troubling question: was it outclassed by Pakistan’s Chinese-manufactured systems, or was it outwitted by its own excessive confidence and dependence on foreign technology? In any case, India’s airpower strategy requires a significant overhaul.

At the Shangri-La Dialogue, India and Pakistan delegations deliberately avoided each other in the hallways and conference rooms

By
Asif Shahid
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Chief of Defence Staff of the Indian Armed Forces Anil Chauhan

The Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore has historically been characterized by the rivalry between the U.S. and China; however, Beijing’s noticeable withdrawal over the weekend revealed a new divide – the rising tensions between the U.S. and Europe regarding Asia.

During a speech on Saturday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth cautioned that China represented an “imminent” threat, while also emphasizing his desire for Europeans to focus on their own security as they increased military expenditures. “We would much prefer that the overwhelming balance of European investment be on that continent…so that as we partner there, which we will continue to do, we’re able to use our comparative advantage as an Indo-Pacific nation to support our partners here,” he stated.

Hegseth also pointed out the absence of his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun, as Beijing opted to send a lower-level team of military scholars to the annual gathering, which draws top defense officials, diplomats, intelligence agents, and arms dealers from around the globe.

Another significant aspect of the event was the attendance of influential military delegations from India and Pakistan, following four days of intense confrontations between the nuclear-armed rivals that were brought to a halt by a ceasefire on May 10.

The delegations, dressed in full uniform and adorned with medals and service ribbons, were led by India’s highest-ranking military officer and Pakistan’s chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. They deliberately avoided each other in the corridors and meeting rooms of the expansive Shangri-La hotel.

In terms of engagement in Asia, some European nations indicated they would not be influenced by U.S. calls to action. They asserted their intention to maintain a presence in both the Asian and European arenas, highlighting their strong connections and essential trade relationships, as well as the global nature of conflict.

“It is encouraging that we are increasing our efforts (in Europe), but I want to emphasize that the security of Europe is closely tied to the security of the Pacific,” stated Kaja Kallas, Europe’s leading diplomat. “If you have concerns about China, you should also be concerned about Russia,” Kallas remarked, highlighting the significance of Chinese support for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine and the involvement of North Korean troops.

French President Emmanuel Macron affirmed that France continues to be an Indo-Pacific power, referencing its lasting colonial influence in New Caledonia and French Polynesia, as well as the deployment of over 8,000 soldiers in the region. “We are neither aligned with China nor the U.S.; we do not wish to rely on either,” Macron expressed during a press conference on Friday, proposing a “third path” coalition between Europe and Asia that avoids choosing sides between Beijing and Washington.

“We aim to collaborate with both as much as possible, fostering growth, prosperity, and stability for our citizens and the global order, which I believe reflects the sentiments of many nations and individuals in this area,” he added.

However, beyond the rhetoric, military attaches and analysts indicate that the European military presence and aspirations may be challenging to alter. Military deployments are planned over decades rather than months, and both commercial and defense ties have historical roots, with some rarely acknowledged publicly.

The upcoming visit of a British aircraft carrier to Singapore later this month is part of a program initially announced by then-Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson in 2017 to reaffirm British support for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. This carrier visit also aligns with Britain’s obligations under the 54-year-old Five-Power Defence Arrangement, which connects its military with those of Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, and New Zealand.

British relations with Australia have been strengthened by the recent AUKUS agreement involving submarine and advanced technology sharing with the U.S. – a development that may allow British submarines to visit Western Australia.

In the meantime, Singapore maintains 200 personnel in France who operate 12 of its light combat aircraft, while Britain also has a jungle training camp and helicopters stationed in Brunei, along with a Gurkha battalion consisting of 1,200 troops, as reported by the International Institute of Strategic Studies.

A report released last month by the London-based IISS emphasized the enduring and growing defense connections between European defense firms and Asia, despite increasing competition, particularly from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as regional budgets expand. “European companies, such as Airbus, Damen, Naval Group, and Thales, have established a long-standing presence in Southeast Asia, and other European players have entered the market over the past decade, including Italy’s Fincantieri and Sweden’s Saab,” the IISS report stated. Saab is on the verge of finalizing a deal with U.S. ally Thailand to provide its Gripen fighters, surpassing Lockheed Martin’s F-16s.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has indicated that defense spending in Asia increased by 46% over the decade leading to 2024, totaling $629 billion. For Finnish officials, Hegseth’s comments struck a chord – it is Moscow, rather than the Indo-Pacific, that poses a significant concern for Helsinki due to the country’s extensive border with Russia.

“When Europe’s defense is in good condition, then you will have the resources to pursue additional initiatives,” Finnish Defence Minister Antti Hakkanen told Reuters. “However, currently, all European nations must prioritize European defense so that the United States can take on a larger role in the Indo-Pacific region,” Hakkanen remarked.

A senior Pakistani general announced that Pakistan and India are close to finishing a reduction of border troops

By
Asif Shahid
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0
General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Pakistan's chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee, speaks during an interview with Reuters on the sidelines of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue security summit, in Singapore

Pakistan and India are nearing a reduction of troop levels along their border to pre-conflict numbers, as stated by a senior Pakistani military official to Reuters on Friday. However, he cautioned that the current crisis has heightened the risk of future escalations.

Over four days of intense clashes, both nations deployed fighter jets, missiles, drones, and artillery, marking their most severe confrontations in decades, until a ceasefire was declared. The recent hostilities were ignited by an attack in Kashmir on April 22, which resulted in the deaths of 26 individuals, primarily tourists. New Delhi attributed the attack to “terrorists” supported by Pakistan, a claim that Islamabad has refuted.

On May 7, India targeted what it identified as “terrorist infrastructure” across the border with missile strikes, prompting Pakistan to retaliate with its own assaults, leading both countries to reinforce their military presence along the border.

General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, the chairman of Pakistan’s joint chiefs of staff, indicated that the two nations have begun the process of reducing troop numbers. “We have nearly returned to the situation that existed before April 22… we are getting close to that, or we should have reached that point by now,” Mirza remarked, being the highest-ranking Pakistani military official to publicly address the situation since the outbreak of conflict.

India’s Ministry of Defence and the office of the Indian Chief of Defence Staff did not promptly reply to Reuters’ inquiries regarding Mirza’s comments.

Mirza, currently in Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue forum, stated that although there was no movement towards nuclear weapons during this conflict, the situation remains perilous. “Nothing occurred this time,” he remarked. “However, one cannot dismiss the possibility of a strategic miscalculation at any moment, as responses differ during a crisis.”

He further noted that the likelihood of escalation has grown since the recent fighting extended beyond the disputed region of Kashmir, a picturesque area in the Himalayas that both countries partially govern but claim entirely. Both nations targeted military facilities within their territories, yet neither has admitted to any significant damage.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cautioned Pakistan earlier this month that New Delhi would strike “terrorist hideouts” across the border again if new attacks on India were to occur. The two nations have engaged in three significant wars, two of which were over Kashmir, along with numerous armed confrontations since their emergence from British colonial India in 1947.

India accuses Pakistan of fostering an insurgency in its section of Kashmir that began in 1989 and has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. Pakistan asserts that it only offers moral, political, and diplomatic backing to Kashmiris pursuing self-determination.

“This (conflict) diminishes the threshold between two neighboring nuclear powers…in the future, it will not be confined to the disputed territory. It will encompass (the) entirety of India and (the) entirety of Pakistan,” Mirza stated. “This represents a very hazardous trend.

Swift increase in hostilities was partly mitigated by behind-the-scenes diplomacy involving the U.S., India, and Pakistan, with Washington playing a crucial role in facilitating peace. India has refuted any involvement of a third party in the ceasefire, asserting that any interactions between India and Pakistan must be bilateral.

However, Mirza cautioned that future international mediation could be challenging due to the absence of crisis management mechanisms between the nations. “The time window for the international community to intervene is now significantly reduced, and I would argue that damage and destruction may occur even before this window is utilized by the international community,” he stated.

He noted that Pakistan was receptive to dialogue, but apart from a crisis hotline between the military operations directors general and some tactical hotlines along the border, there was no other communication between the two nations.

In response to a question regarding the potential for dialogue with Pakistan, India’s foreign ministry spokesperson remarked on Thursday that “talks and terror don’t go together.”

Mirza indicated that there were no backchannel discussions or informal negotiations aimed at reducing tensions. He also mentioned that he had no intentions of meeting General Anil Chauhan, India’s chief of defense staff, who is also present in Singapore for the Shangri-La forum.

“These issues can only be resolved through dialogue and consultations at the negotiating table. They cannot be settled on the battlefield,” Mirza emphasized.

Pakistan used the CM-400AKG missile against India’s S-400, raising Western concerns about Chinese technology

By
Anjum Nadeem
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0
S-400 air defense systems

A recent report from Chinese state media emphasizes what is purported to be the initial combat deployment of China’s hypersonic missile technology, posing a considerable challenge to the efficacy of contemporary air defense systems. As per the details, Pakistan utilized a Chinese-manufactured CM-400AKG air-to-surface missile, launched from a JF-17 Thunder fighter jet, to eliminate an Indian S-400 Triumf, which is a Russian-made air defense system.

If verified, this attack illustrates that Chinese hypersonic missile systems could pose a significant threat to even the most sophisticated air defense platforms currently in operation worldwide.

The CM-400AKG, a missile created by China’s state-owned China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), signifies a new era of precision strike weaponry.

Although it is generally categorized as a hypersonic weapon due to its speed exceeding Mach 5, it is more accurately described as a quasi-ballistic missile because of its steep terminal dive attack profile and high-altitude cruise path.

This missile is specifically engineered to target high-value, heavily defended assets such as naval ships or strategic ground-based air defense systems.

The S-400 Triumf, provided by Russia, is one of the most esteemed air defense missile systems in the world. With a detection capability of 600 kilometers and the ability to engage aerial threats at distances of up to 400 kilometers, it serves as a cornerstone of India’s airspace defense. It is engineered to intercept a wide range of threats, including enemy aircraft, drones, and ballistic missiles. Its esteemed status has made it a preferred choice not only for India but also for countries like China and Turkey, despite the geopolitical challenges associated with such purchases.

If a Chinese missile, such as the CM-400AKG, has successfully neutralized an S-400 system in an actual combat situation, the consequences would be significant. This occurrence would not only signify the operational introduction of Chinese hypersonic weapons in warfare but also provoke serious concerns among Western military strategists.

For the United States and NATO allies that depend on air defense systems like the Patriot, Aegis, or even THAAD and the upcoming NGI systems, the idea that a relatively inexpensive, air-launched Chinese missile could overcome a premier Russian defense system is indeed alarming.

The CM-400AKG’s effectiveness may indicate a significant change in the global military equilibrium. Hypersonic weapons are exceptionally challenging to detect and intercept due to their speed, flight characteristics, and maneuverability.

While Western nations have made substantial investments in missile defense systems to address conventional threats, the emergence of hypersonic and quasi-hypersonic technologies from China introduces a new level of difficulty. Should these systems prove capable of evading the S-400, which is designed with multi-band radar systems and sophisticated interception missiles, there is increasing apprehension that even the most advanced defense systems in the U.S. and Europe may need considerable enhancements to maintain their credibility.

Additionally, this situation strengthens China’s role not only as a significant consumer but also as a prolific and effective provider of advanced weaponry. If the CM-400AKG demonstrates success in operational settings, it could become a compelling choice for numerous nations aiming to counter technologically superior foes.

The platform associated with this purported strike, the JF-17 Thunder, symbolizes a new age of adaptable and economical airpower. Jointly developed by Pakistan and China, the JF-17 is a fourth-generation, single-engine multirole fighter adept at executing a variety of missions ranging from air superiority to ground assault and maritime strikes. It features a contemporary glass cockpit, sophisticated radar systems including AESA radar in the Block III version, and a flexible weapons suite.

The JF-17 is capable of carrying an impressive selection of armaments. These consist of air-to-air missiles like the PL-5, PL-9, PL-10, and PL-15; air-to-ground munitions such as laser-guided bombs and glide bombs; anti-ship missiles like the C-802A; and crucially, standoff strike weapons such as the CM-400AKG. With seven hardpoints and a digital avionics suite, it can function in both independent and networked modes, establishing it as a formidable strike platform in contested scenarios.

The CM-400AKG missile represents a significant advancement in air-launched precision strike capabilities. With a range of up to 250 kilometers and speeds surpassing Mach 5, it is engineered to target hardened and high-value assets while circumventing modern air defenses. Its steep terminal dive, high kinetic energy, and fire-and-forget guidance system render it exceptionally challenging to intercept.

The CM-400AKG, created by CASIC, was initially introduced at the 2012 Zhuhai Airshow as a missile system aimed at exports. Pakistan was the first country to operate it internationally, incorporating the missile into the JF-17 Thunder fleet to improve its ability to target high-value assets at extended ranges.

Powered by a single-stage solid-fuel rocket motor, the missile can be equipped with either a 150 kg blast fragmentation warhead or a 200 kg penetration warhead, making it suitable for both naval and stationary ground targets. Its distinctive flight profile, characterized by high altitude and high speed, allows it to reach velocities between Mach 4.5 and 5.5 during its terminal phase, presenting a significant challenge to any contemporary integrated air defense system.

The missile features a navigation system that combines inertial guidance with GPS corrections, and it provides seeker options that include active radar or imaging infrared, thereby enhancing its adaptability for diverse operational needs. The development of the CM-400AKG reflects China’s strategic aim to upgrade its missile capabilities and establish itself as a significant player in the global arms market.

By deploying advanced systems like the CM-400AKG and making them available to international allies, China not only boosts its technological reputation but also broadens its geopolitical influence. The missile’s reported successful engagement with India’s S-400 Triumf system highlights its potential effect on the shifting landscape of regional and global military power.

The CM-400AKG missiles feature a blend of high velocity, intricate flight paths, and accurate guidance, positioning them as some of the most sophisticated air-launched strike weapons available globally today.

U.S. will offer the F-35A stealth fighter to India in response to the airpower pact between Pakistan and China

By
Asif Shahid
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0
The F-35A Lightning II, dubbed a “Frankenjet” and assigned to the 388th Fighter Wing, returns to Hill Air Force Base, Utah.

In a significant development that may reshape the strategic equilibrium in South Asia, the United States is reportedly set to officially propose the F-35A Lightning II fifth-generation stealth fighter to India as soon as June this year.

With New Delhi confronting the swift progress of Chinese and Pakistani fifth-generation airpower capabilities, this potential acquisition is seen as a vital factor in strengthening the Indian Air Force’s deterrent stance.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is actively expanding its fleet of Chengdu J-20 “Mighty Dragon” stealth fighters, while Pakistan is anticipated to introduce the new Chinese-manufactured Shenyang J-35A by 2026, heightening India’s need for a stealth platform to uphold regional air dominance.

Defence officials and analysts emphasize that India’s pressing need to deploy a fifth-generation combat aircraft stems from a changing dual-front threat landscape, necessitating a response platform equipped with low observability, advanced sensor fusion, and deep strike capabilities.

High-level sources referenced by Indian defence media indicate that the F-35A proposal from Washington will not be a standard model but a specially tailored configuration with systems designed specifically for India.

Following the example set by Israel’s F-35I “Adir”, the Indian F-35A variant is expected to feature the integration of Software Defined Radio (SDR) and an advanced Identification Friennd or Foe (IFF) suite—facilitating enhanced compatibility with India’s indigenous C4ISR networks.

Israel’s F-35I “Adir” remains the most operationally independent version of the platform, having gained unprecedented access to the F-35’s core systems and software architecture.

In contrast to many international operators constrained by U.S. software and weaponry restrictions, Israel has effectively integrated domestically produced electronic warfare systems, sensor packages, and air-to-ground munitions such as the Python-5 and Spice bombs directly into the F-35’s internal weapons bay. This level of customization has allowed Israel to conduct real-world combat missions utilizing the F-35I against high-value targets in Syria and beyond, granting the Israeli Air Force a formidable strategic first-strike capability.

India is now advocating for similar flexibility in customizing its F-35A fleet, perceiving sovereign configuration control as crucial for incorporating the aircraft into its intricate tri-service framework, which encompasses indigenous early warning systems and tactical data links. At the same time, sources from the Chinese defense industry indicate that Beijing has expedited the delivery schedule of the J-35A stealth fighter to Pakistan, now targeting the operational readiness of the first squadron by the first quarter of 2026.

Insiders within the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) report that China has pledged to advance the timeline by at least six months to ensure that Islamabad receives the initial batch of J-35A aircraft ahead of the planned schedule. Developed by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC), the J-35A is being marketed as a naval-capable, carrier-variant stealth platform with significant export aspirations, competing with Western fifth-generation offerings in regional markets.

Initial reports suggest that Pakistan is poised to acquire up to 40 J-35A units within a 24-month induction period, significantly boosting its frontline capabilities and potentially shifting the aerial equilibrium along the Line of Control (LoC).

During a bilateral summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this year, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated Washington’s commitment to enhancing military collaboration with India, announcing that expanded arms sales would commence in earnest starting in 2025. “We’ll be increasing military sales to India by many billions of dollars. We’re also paving the way to ultimately provide India with the F-35 stealth fighters,” Trump stated in a press briefing, indicating a significant policy change.

Lockheed Martin, the primary contractor for the F-35, has made it clear that any sale to India will occur through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) channel, with the Pentagon acting as the official intermediary between Lockheed and the Indian Ministry of Defence. This government-to-government approach guarantees strategic oversight and compliance with end-use requirements, while also allowing for sensitive configuration requests and sustainment packages customized to meet partner-specific needs.

Since 2008, India has entered into defense procurement agreements with the United States totaling over US$20 billion, reinforcing Washington’s role as one of New Delhi’s leading arms suppliers.

A significant instance was the long-anticipated finalization of a US$3 billion deal in 2023 for 31 MQ-9B SeaGuardian and SkyGuardian unmanned aerial systems, which followed lengthy negotiations lasting six years.

Recently, U.S. Vice President JD Vance reaffirmed Washington’s strong encouragement for India to participate in the F-35 program, mentioning during a high-level visit that the stealth fighter would greatly enhance the Indian Air Force’s capability to secure its airspace in a multi-domain battlespace.

For many years, India’s air combat capabilities have relied on Russian platforms, such as Su-30MKIs, MiG-29UPGs, and various versions of MiG-21s and Jaguars, with Moscow serving as its primary defense partner.

However, Russia’s industrial capacity has been considerably diminished due to its conflict in Ukraine, leading to significant delays in the export pipeline and prompting India to seek a broader range of procurement sources.

In response, Russia has suggested a local co-production and technology-sharing agreement for the Su-57E fifth-generation fighter, providing India with the chance to manufacture the aircraft domestically using its existing Su-30MKI production lines.

Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov characterized the proposal as “highly rewarding,” highlighting not only the aircraft’s capabilities but also the potential for local assembly, configuration flexibility, and ecosystem development.

“We present our own fifth-generation fighter. We possess the best aircraft—the Su-57E. We recently showcased it at Aero India in Bangalore, and it garnered significant interest,” he stated. “This platform is extremely competitive. We’re not merely offering to sell it—we’re suggesting co-development, technology transfer, and industrial support infrastructure customized to meet India’s needs.

Rosoboronexport, the state arms export agency of Russia, has confirmed that India can begin licensed production right away by converting existing assembly facilities that were previously utilized for the Su-30MKI, with over 220 units manufactured domestically by HAL. As the geopolitical competition between U.S.-aligned Indo-Pacific democracies and China-supported alliances escalates, India’s decision regarding fighter jets is swiftly evolving into more than a mere military procurement—it is becoming a representation of strategic alignment in a world order that is increasingly bipolar.

The F-35 program includes three variants: the F-35A (CTOL) designed for conventional airbases, the F-35B (STOVL) intended for short-runway or amphibious operations, and the F-35C (carrier-based) meant for naval deployments. The F-35A provides the most cost-effective and agile option, while the F-35B is tailored for expeditionary forces, and the F-35C features the longest range along with structural reinforcements for carrier operations.

Ultimately, India’s selection will not only indicate its preferred capability set but also its long-term strategic partnerships—between an Eastern ally aiming to rebuild and a Western ally ready to redefine the future of air superiority.

Pakistan Eyes China’s HQ-19 to Neutralise Indian Missile Threat

By
Anjum Nadeem
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0
Rumored picture of Chinese HQ-19 Surface-To-Air Missile Weapon System.

In a significant move to enhance its strategic defenses against emerging regional missile threats, Pakistan is reportedly engaged in advanced negotiations to acquire China’s HQ-19 anti-ballistic missile system—often referred to as the “Chinese THAAD”—to address the high-end threats posed by India’s cruise and ballistic missile capabilities.

The HQ-19, developed by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), is engineered to intercept medium- to intermediate-range ballistic missiles during their terminal descent phase, functioning similarly to the U.S.-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system utilized by Washington and its key allies.

THAAD, created by Lockheed Martin, is a highly mobile, hit-to-kill missile defense system that neutralizes incoming threats through kinetic impact, thereby eliminating the necessity for explosive warheads—a concept that China appears to have mirrored in its HQ-19 platform.

As per defense sources in Islamabad, the government is planning to acquire the HQ-19 in conjunction with the next-generation J-35A stealth fighter, a fifth-generation platform developed by China that is anticipated to enter service in Pakistan in the first quarter of next year.

This dual acquisition—if confirmed—would represent a significant advancement in Pakistan’s airpower and missile defense capabilities, indicating its intention to incorporate state-of-the-art Chinese systems into its command structure.

Reports suggest that pilots from the Pakistani Air Force are currently receiving advanced training in China to prepare for the operational induction of the J-35A, marking the first known deployment of the stealth fighter outside of Chinese forces.

In addition to addressing conventional air threats, the HQ-19 would serve as a vital asset in countering supersonic and potentially hypersonic cruise missiles, such as India’s Indo-Russian BrahMos, Agni, and the French-origin SCALP-EG, all of which are currently in operational service with the Indian Air Force’s Rafale squadrons.

In the latest high-altitude conflicts and cross-border tensions, India’s deployment of precision-guided cruise missiles against Pakistani military targets has attracted worldwide attention to the escalating risks between two nuclear-armed neighbors. While it is reported that most of these strikes were intercepted by Pakistan’s current short- and medium-range air defense systems, analysts suggest that Islamabad is now pursuing a strategic layer capable of countering saturation attacks or advanced missile systems launched from standoff ranges.

If finalized, the acquisition of the HQ-19 would further enhance Pakistan’s integrated air and missile defense network, which already comprises various layers of Chinese-supplied systems such as the HQ-9B, LY-80, HQ-16FE, and infantry-deployed FN-series MANPADS. For example, the HQ-9/HQ-9B (FD-2000) offers Pakistan long-range air defense capabilities, able to engage aerial threats at distances of up to 300 km and altitudes of 50 km, including aircraft, cruise missiles, and even tactical ballistic missiles.

The LY-80, an export variant of the HQ-16A, constitutes the medium-range foundation of Pakistan’s air defense framework, safeguarding critical infrastructure with a range of 40 km and altitude coverage reaching up to 50,000 feet since its introduction in 2017.

To enhance that layer, Pakistan has introduced the HQ-16FE, a more advanced and agile variant that provides improved resilience against electronic warfare and jamming, strengthening the nation’s capability to function in contested environments.
At the tactical level, the FN-6 and FN-16 man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) have equipped Pakistani infantry with mobile, point-defense capabilities against low-flying threats such as helicopters and strike aircraft since 2010 and 2018, respectively.
With the HQ-19, Pakistan will, for the first time, obtain a system capable of exo-atmospheric interception.

Estimated Range and Interception Altitude:

  • Interception Range: Estimated to be between 1,000 and 3,000 km, aimed at targeting incoming ballistic missiles within this range (this should not be confused with the missile’s own flight range, but rather the range of the threats it is intended to counter).
  • Interception Altitude: Approximately 70 to 150 km, positioning it in the exo-atmospheric layer—above most conventional air defense systems, akin to U.S. THAAD.
  • Radar Detection Range (with X-band AESA radar): Likely to exceed 1,000 km depending on the size and profile of the target missile.

The HQ-19 is capable of tracking and intercepting intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) through the use of AESA-based X-band radar technology.

Equipped with dual-mode guidance systems (both semi-active and active) and possibly infrared seekers in its newer versions, the HQ-19 provides a lethal hit-to-kill intercept profile that is comparable to THAAD, enabling it to engage incoming warheads at extremely high speeds.

The system is designed to be road-mobile and is mounted on wheeled transporter-erector-launchers (TELs), which allows for flexible deployment in peacetime deterrence roles as well as in crisis mobility situations, particularly along Pakistan’s eastern border with India.

Reports from Chinese state media and U.S. defense monitoring agencies suggest that the HQ-19 successfully completed its first flight tests in the early 2010s, with a confirmed live intercept against a simulated ballistic missile target in China’s interior reported in 2021.

Although the system has not yet been officially exported, a sale to Pakistan would signify a strengthening of strategic trust between Beijing and Islamabad, representing one of the few known transfers of a high-tier missile defense system beyond China’s immediate military alliance network.

From a strategic perspective, such an acquisition would significantly bolster Pakistan’s capability to counter threats posed by India’s Agni-series ballistic missiles—especially the MIRV-capable Agni-V and Agni-P—which are central to New Delhi’s nuclear triad.

More critically, it would offer Islamabad a protective shield over its nuclear command-and-control centers, ballistic missile launchers, and essential military infrastructure, enhancing its survivability in the event of a first strike and reinforcing its doctrinal focus on ‘Minimum Credible Deterrence.’

By allowing Pakistan to potentially intercept incoming nuclear-capable missiles during flight, the HQ-19 could diminish the need for immediate retaliatory nuclear strikes, thus reducing the risk of miscalculation and promoting strategic stability.

However, such a transformative capability is likely to provoke a strong reaction from India, potentially speeding up its initiatives to develop hypersonic glide vehicles, increase its inventory of submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and implement further countermeasure technologies like MIRVs. Consequently, South Asia may enter a renewed phase of the missile arms race, characterized not only by offensive capabilities but also by layered defense and the growing significance of exo-atmospheric systems in regional military strategies.

The incorporation of HQ-19 would necessitate substantial enhancements to Pakistan’s C4ISR infrastructure, which would include specialized radar stations, secure datalink networks, and advanced command systems capable of overseeing real-time interception across various domains. The training, maintenance, and operational integration involved would represent a considerable challenge, requiring ongoing investment and shifts in doctrine within Pakistan’s air and missile defense command.

On an international scale, such advancements could rekindle non-proliferation worries, particularly among the signatories of the Hague Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCOC) and the supporters of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

While the HCOC is a non-binding agreement, the actual deployment of a system like HQ-19—intended to target nuclear-capable delivery systems—might heighten scrutiny regarding Pakistan’s strategic objectives and the transparency of its missile doctrine. Established in 2002, the HCOC aims to limit the global dissemination of ballistic missile technology that can deliver weapons of mass destruction, and currently has over 140 subscribing nations, although neither Pakistan nor India are among the current participants.

In conclusion, should the HQ-19 be obtained and incorporated, Pakistan would join the select group of countries with exo-atmospheric missile interception capabilities—a field historically led by the United States, Russia, and China.

This development would not only alter the military equilibrium in the region but also elevate Pakistan’s status among the advanced missile powers during a time when space-related threats and cross-domain deterrence are becoming more prominent.

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