Zapad-2025: Belarus and Russia’s Nuclear War Games Rattle NATO’s Nerves

On September 12-16, 2025, Belarus and Russia will conduct the Zapad-2025 military exercises, a significant joint operation that includes rehearsals for deploying nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles. These drills, centered near Borisov in Belarus’s Minsk region, mark a new chapter in the deepening military alliance between Minsk and Moscow.

Coming at a time of heightened tensions with NATO and ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine, the exercises underscore the strategic importance of nuclear deterrence in the Russia-Belarus “Union State” framework.

Strategic Importance of Zapad-2025

The Zapad-2025 exercises are more than routine military drills; they represent a deliberate escalation in Russia and Belarus’s strategic posture, with far-reaching implications:

1. Nuclear Deterrence and Power Projection:

– Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin has described nuclear weapons as a “key element of strategic deterrence.” The inclusion of the Oreshnik missile, an intermediate-range hypersonic system capable of carrying nuclear warheads, signals to NATO and the West that both nations are prepared to counter perceived threats with overwhelming force.

– The exercises simulate the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, which, while less destructive than strategic nuclear arsenals, could still cause catastrophic damage. Russian President Vladimir Putin has noted that even tactical nuclear weapons surpass the destructive power of those used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, emphasizing their role as a credible threat.

– By showcasing advanced weaponry and nuclear readiness, Russia and Belarus aim to deter NATO’s military buildup along their borders and discourage further Western support for Ukraine, particularly the use of long-range weapons against Russian targets.

2. Strengthening the Russia-Belarus Alliance:

– The drills reinforce the “Union State,” a political and military framework binding Russia and Belarus. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Belarus has served as a critical staging ground, hosting Russian troops and missile systems. The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, formalized in 2023, is a cornerstone of this partnership.

– Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has framed these weapons as a guarantee of national security, citing a mutual defense pact with Russia. The exercises test the interoperability of Russian and Belarusian forces, ensuring seamless coordination in a potential nuclear scenario.

– For Russia, the drills demonstrate its ability to extend its nuclear umbrella to allies, reinforcing Moscow’s influence over Minsk and signaling to other potential partners that it remains a global power.

3. Regional Security Dynamics:

– Conducted near Borisov, less than 100 miles from NATO’s eastern flank (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia), the exercises are a direct challenge to the alliance. These countries, already wary of Russian military activity in Belarus and Kaliningrad, view the drills as provocative, particularly given Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine, which lowers the threshold for nuclear use.

– The Oreshnik missile, with a range of up to 2,000 miles and hypersonic capabilities, extends Russia’s ability to strike targets across Europe, including NATO capitals and military bases, from Belarusian soil. This capability heightens concerns about a potential escalation in the region.

– The exercises also respond to NATO’s own large-scale drills, such as those in Poland involving 34,000 troops, which Russia and Belarus cite as evidence of Western “militarization” along their borders.

4. Global Nuclear Risks:

– The exercises occur against the backdrop of a fraying global nuclear arms control regime. With only one major U.S.-Russia nuclear treaty remaining, the risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation is higher than at any point since the Cold War.

– The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in a battlefield context, as rehearsed in Zapad-2025, raises the specter of a limited nuclear exchange escalating into a broader conflict, particularly given the proximity of NATO forces and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Geopolitical Context

The Zapad-2025 exercises are deeply rooted in the current geopolitical environment, shaped by the following factors:

1. Russia’s Revised Nuclear Doctrine:

– In late 2024, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for nuclear weapon use, citing Western support for Ukraine—particularly permissions for Kyiv to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons—as a direct threat. The Zapad-2025 drills operationalize this doctrine, testing Russia’s ability to deploy nuclear weapons in a conflict scenario.

– The inclusion of the Oreshnik missile, which was used against Ukraine in November 2024, underscores Russia’s willingness to integrate new nuclear-capable systems into its arsenal, signaling a shift toward a more assertive nuclear posture.

2. The War in Ukraine:

– Belarus has played a pivotal role in Russia’s war against Ukraine, providing territory for troop movements, missile launches, and logistics since February 2022. The exercises are partly a response to Western actions, such as NATO’s approval for Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russian targets and discussions about deploying Western troops to Ukraine.

– Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia’s nuclear posturing, including the Oreshnik deployment, aims to intimidate the West and disrupt peace negotiations, particularly those involving U.S. President Donald Trump. Zelenskyy has described the missile as a tool to “scare the world” and undermine Ukraine’s position.

3. Tensions with NATO:

– Russia and Belarus frame the exercises as a defensive response to NATO’s military buildup, including exercises in Poland and the Baltic states. NATO’s increased presence, driven by fears of Russian aggression, has prompted Moscow and Minsk to counter with their own show of force.

– Lukashenko has dismissed accusations of offensive intent, calling them “complete nonsense,” but NATO’s monitoring of the drills reflects deep concerns about their implications for regional stability.

4. Domestic and Regional Posturing:

– For Lukashenko, the exercises bolster his domestic legitimacy, portraying him as a leader safeguarding Belarus under Russia’s nuclear protection. This is critical amid ongoing domestic unrest following the disputed 2020 election.

– For Russia, the drills reinforce its image as a great power capable of challenging NATO and supporting allies.

 Why Now? The Timing of Zapad-2025

The scheduling of the exercises, just before a planned August 15, 2025, meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska, is no coincidence. Several factors explain the timing:

1. Leverage in Peace Negotiations:

– The drills are a strategic maneuver to strengthen Russia’s position in negotiations over Ukraine. Putin has demanded a ceasefire that includes Ukraine’s withdrawal from contested regions, a condition Zelenskyy warns could embolden further Russian aggression.

– By showcasing nuclear capabilities, Russia and Belarus aim to pressure the U.S. and its allies into concessions, particularly on limiting military aid to Ukraine and scaling back NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe.

2. Countering Western Actions:

– The exercises respond to specific Western moves, including NATO’s approval for Ukraine to strike Russian targets and the alliance’s own large-scale drills. Russia and Belarus view these as escalatory, justifying their nuclear posturing as a necessary countermeasure.

– The Oreshnik missile’s planned deployment in Belarus by late 2025, following its use in Ukraine, reflects a broader strategy to counter Western technological and military advancements.

3. Testing New Capabilities:

– The Oreshnik missile, which entered serial production in 2025, is a relatively new addition to Russia’s arsenal. The exercises provide an opportunity to test its integration into joint operations, ensuring that Russian and Belarusian forces can deploy it effectively.

– The drills also allow for the refinement of command-and-control structures for nuclear operations, critical for ensuring operational readiness in a crisis.

4. Geopolitical Signaling:

– The timing, just before the Putin-Trump summit, sends a clear message to the U.S. and NATO: Russia and Belarus are prepared for escalation if their demands are not met. This aligns with Putin’s broader strategy of using nuclear threats to shape Western policy, as seen in earlier exercises in 2024 and his public statements on Russia’s nuclear capabilities.

Implications and Risks

The Zapad-2025 exercises carry significant risks and implications for regional and global security:

1. Provocation vs. Deterrence:

– While Russia and Belarus claim the drills are defensive, their nuclear focus and proximity to NATO borders are inherently provocative. This aligns with Russia’s pattern of using nuclear rhetoric to intimidate adversaries, as seen in previous Zapad exercises (e.g., 2017, 2021) and Putin’s repeated warnings about nuclear escalation.

– NATO’s response, including heightened surveillance and potential counter-drills, could escalate tensions, creating a cycle of provocation and counter-provocation.

2. Risk of Miscalculation:

– The exercises, particularly the nuclear component, increase the risk of miscalculation. A misinterpretation of the drills’ intent by NATO or Ukraine could lead to unintended escalation, especially given Russia’s lowered nuclear threshold and the volatile situation in Ukraine.

– The presence of nuclear-capable systems in Belarus, a frontline state, raises the stakes, as any incident could rapidly involve NATO members.

3. Impact on Peace Negotiations:

– The drills could complicate U.S.-Russia talks, as they reinforce Russia’s hardline stance and signal a willingness to escalate if negotiations falter. Trump’s push for a quick resolution to the Ukraine conflict may face resistance from both Russia, emboldened by its nuclear posturing, and Ukraine, wary of concessions under pressure.

4. Long-Term Regional Dynamics:

– The exercises exacerbate tensions with NATO’s eastern members, who may push for increased alliance deployments, potentially leading to a broader arms race in the region.

– For Ukraine, the drills underscore the ongoing threat from Belarus, which could serve as a launchpad for further Russian aggression, complicating Kyiv’s defense strategy.

Conclusion

The Zapad-2025 exercises, with their focus on nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles, represent a calculated escalation by Russia and Belarus to assert their military power and influence Western policy. Rooted in the context of the Ukraine war, NATO’s expansion, and Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine, the drills are both a deterrence mechanism and a geopolitical tool.

Their timing, just before a critical U.S.-Russia summit, underscores their role in shaping negotiations over Ukraine. However, the nuclear dimension and proximity to NATO borders heighten the risk of miscalculation, making Zapad-2025 a pivotal moment in the ongoing standoff between East and West.

As the world watches, careful diplomacy and restraint will be essential to prevent these exercises from sparking a broader crisis.