A territorial dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea has escalated into violence, with both nations accusing each other of deliberate boat rammings. The Philippines has specifically accused Chinese coastguard personnel of deploying water cannons against its forces and engaging in physical altercations involving spears and knives.

In August alone, there were six reported confrontations in the air and at sea within this contested region. Five of these incidents occurred at or near Scarborough Shoal and Sabina Shoal in the Spratly Islands, areas that fall within the Philippines’ 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), yet are claimed by China.

These confrontations have arisen despite renewed attempts by both Beijing and Manila to manage their maritime disputes more effectively, following a violent incident in June that resulted in a Filipino sailor losing a finger.

China has attributed the confrontations to the Philippines, accusing its troops of “illegally” entering Chinese territory. In September, China indicated that its relationship with the Philippines was “at a crossroads” and urged Manila to “seriously consider the future” of their diplomatic ties.

The rising tensions pose a risk of involving the United States, which holds a mutual defense agreement with the Philippines and has committed to supporting Manila in the event of armed attacks against Filipino forces. This protection extends to coastguard personnel, aircraft, or public vessels located “anywhere” in the South China Sea.

Here are the key points regarding the tensions in this crucial maritime region:

Who asserts what?

China asserts sovereignty over nearly the entirety of the South China Sea, delineated by a vague, U-shaped nine-dash line that intersects with the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. EEZs are maritime zones extending 200 nautical miles from a country’s coastline, granting that nation the rights to explore and utilize resources.

In the northern region of the South China Sea, sovereignty over the Paracel Islands is claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, although Beijing has maintained control since 1974. In the southern region, all parties—China, Taiwan, and Vietnam—assert claims over the approximately 200 Spratly Islands, while Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines claim portions of them.

In 2016, a United Nations tribunal ruled, in response to a case brought by the Philippines, that China’s nine-dash line lacked legal standing. However, Beijing has disregarded this ruling and has continued to reclaim and militarize reefs and submerged features in the area to bolster its extensive claims.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank based in the United States, China operates 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands and seven in the Spratlys.

In contrast, Vietnam has established 51 outposts across 27 features, while the Philippines occupies nine features in the Spratly Islands. Thitu Island, the largest of these, hosts the only Philippine airstrip in the Spratlys.

China’s Military Expansion in the South China Sea

While various nations in the South China Sea have engaged in land reclamation activities at their respective locations, China’s efforts in constructing artificial islands and militarizing these areas have significantly outpaced those of other claimants. Since 2013, China has developed approximately 3,200 acres (1,290 hectares) of new land in the Spratly Islands, as reported by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and has established ports, lighthouses, and runways on these newly formed islands.

Currently, China operates four major outposts in the South China Sea, each featuring runways that extend 3,050 meters (10,000 feet). These outposts include Woody Island in the Paracel Islands, as well as Fiery Cross Reef, Mischief Reef, and Subi Reef in the Spratlys.

CSIS indicates that China has stationed a significant array of military resources on these islands, which encompasses anti-aircraft and anti-ship missile systems, surveillance and communication installations, and hangars designed to accommodate military transport, patrol, and combat aircraft.

significant strategic importance of South China Sea

The South China Sea holds significant strategic importance due to its status as one of the globe’s most vital maritime trade routes, facilitating the transport of approximately $3.4 trillion in cargo annually.

Additionally, the region is home to abundant fishing areas that sustain the livelihoods of millions of individuals in surrounding nations.

The US Energy Information Administration estimates that the South China Sea harbors around 11 billion barrels of oil classified as proven or probable reserves, along with approximately 190 trillion cubic feet (about 5.38 trillion cubic meters) of natural gas. The untapped potential of these hydrocarbons is valued at around $2.5 trillion.

Tensions have arisen as Chinese vessels have confronted or engaged in standoffs with survey ships from countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, hindering their efforts to access these resources.

In September, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim asserted that Malaysia would resist Chinese pressure to cease its oil and gas exploration activities in areas it claims off the coast of Sarawak. In 2020, the Diplomat magazine reported that Vietnam had to cancel contracts with two oil companies from Spain and the UAE due to Chinese influence, resulting in a $1 billion compensation payment. Furthermore, in 2012, Vietnam cautioned China to stop its development activities in regions already allocated to companies like Exxon Mobil Corp and OAO Gazprom.

Ultimately, for China, asserting control over the South China Sea would enhance its dominance over a crucial trade corridor and bolster its energy security, while also enabling it to restrict access to foreign military forces, particularly those from the United States.

Increasing Conflicts

In recent decades, the tensions among China, Vietnam, and the Philippines have escalated significantly.

In 1974, China took control of the Paracel Islands from Vietnam, resulting in the deaths of over 70 Vietnamese soldiers. A subsequent confrontation occurred in 1988 in the Spratly Islands, where Vietnam lost approximately 60 sailors. The Philippines has faced its most significant disputes with China over Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal, and more recently, Sabina Shoal.

In 2012, China effectively took over Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines after a protracted two-month standoff. In the years that followed, Chinese coastguard and maritime militia vessels have attempted to obstruct supply boats delivering food and water to Filipino troops stationed on a ship that was intentionally grounded at Second Thomas Shoal in 1999. Reports from the Philippines indicate that China has employed various aggressive tactics, including ramming boats, using military-grade lasers, and deploying water cannons.

Timeline of the key incidents

• In March 1959, South Vietnamese forces detained 82 Chinese fishermen in the Crescent Group of the Paracel Islands.
• In January 1974, Chinese military units took control of the Paracel Islands following a conflict that resulted in over 100 South Vietnamese casualties.
• From January to March 1988, China established its presence at Fiery Cross Reef and Cuarteron Reef in the Spratly Islands, the latter of which was claimed by Vietnam.
• In March 1988, a confrontation occurred between Chinese and Vietnamese forces over Johnson South Reef in the Spratlys, during which the Chinese navy sank three Vietnamese ships, leading to the deaths of 74 sailors in a significant military clash in the South China Sea.
• In January 1996, a 90-minute naval engagement took place between Chinese and Philippine forces near Capones Island, close to Mischief Reef, which had been occupied by Chinese troops the previous year.
• In April 2012, a two-month standoff unfolded between the Chinese and Philippine navies at Scarborough Shoal, culminating in both sides withdrawing. However, by July, China claimed control over the area.
• In May 2014, a Vietnamese fishing boat sank near a Chinese oil rig located off the coast of Vietnam, within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Vietnamese reports alleged that a Chinese vessel collided with the fishing boat, while the Chinese state news agency Xinhua stated that the boat capsized while “interfering with and ramming” a Chinese fishing vessel.
• In July 2019, a prolonged standoff occurred between Vietnamese and Chinese vessels near an offshore oil block situated in waters claimed by both Vietnam’s EEZ and the nine-dash line.
• In February 2020, the Philippines reported that a Chinese navy ship directed its gun control at a Philippine corvette in the Spratly Islands.
• By May 2020, a lengthy standoff involving Chinese, Malaysian, and Vietnamese ships within Malaysia’s EEZ concluded when a Malaysian drillship, which had been exploring contested oil and gas fields, departed the area.
• In March 2021, the Philippines called for the withdrawal of approximately 200 Chinese vessels, including those suspected to be part of a maritime militia, from the waters surrounding Whitsun Reef in the Spratlys.
• In November 2022, the Philippines accused the Chinese coastguard of forcibly taking Chinese rocket debris that was being towed by the Philippine navy in the South China Sea.
• On February 13, 2023, the Philippines charged that China’s coastguard aimed a “military-grade laser” at its personnel stationed on the BPS Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal.
•  On August 5, 2023, the Philippines claimed that China’s coastguard obstructed and used a water cannon against a supply vessel delivering provisions to troops on the BPS Sierra Madre.
• Between October 22 and 24, 2023, the Philippines alleged that Chinese coastguard ships deliberately collided with its vessels that were regularly supplying forces at Second Thomas Shoal, with no injuries reported.
• On December 9, 2023, the Philippines accused China of using water cannons against its boats, including one carrying the military chief, and of ramming other vessels, resulting in significant engine damage. In response, China’s coastguard asserted that the Philippine vessel had intentionally collided with its ship.
• On February 10, 2024, the Philippine coastguard accused China of engaging in “dangerous and obstructive” maneuvers while its vessel was patrolling near Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea earlier this month.
• March 5, 2024 – The Philippines has criticized China for the “reckless” and “illegal” conduct of its coastguard, which resulted in a collision between a Chinese vessel and a Philippine ship. This incident, occurring during a resupply mission for troops stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal, caused damage to the Philippine ship and injuries to some crew members. In response, China claimed that the Philippine vessels had intruded into waters near the shoal.
• March 24, 2024 – China’s coastguard announced that it had taken action against Philippine vessels engaged in a resupply mission for troops at the Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippines condemned these actions, which included the use of water cannons that resulted in damage to its ship and injuries to its crew, labeling them as “irresponsible and provocative.”
• June 17, 2024 – A collision occurred between a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship close to the Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippines reported that Chinese personnel armed with knives and spears assaulted its sailors, leading to one crew member losing a finger. China has denied these allegations.
• August 8, 2024 – The Philippines reported that two Chinese aircraft performed a hazardous maneuver and released flares in the vicinity of a Filipino aircraft conducting a routine patrol over Scarborough Shoal. China contended that the Philippine aircraft had illegally intruded despite multiple warnings.
• August 19, 2024 – The Philippines and China have exchanged accusations regarding ramming vessels and executing dangerous maneuvers near the Sabina Shoal. Manila stated that the collision resulted in structural damage to its ships.
• August 19, 2024 – The Philippines reported that a Chinese fighter jet engaged in aggressive maneuvers against a Filipino surveillance aircraft near Scarborough Shoal, allegedly by deploying flares at dangerously close range multiple times.
• August 22, 2024 – The Philippines has accused China of unjustifiably launching flares from Subi Reef towards its patrol aircraft.
• August 25, 2024 – A collision occurred between Chinese and Filipino vessels near Sabina Shoal, with Manila alleging that the Chinese coastguard deliberately rammed its ship and used water cannons to obstruct what it described as a resupply mission for fishermen. In response, Beijing attributed the incident to Manila’s actions.
• August 26, 2024 – The Philippine Coast Guard reported that China dispatched 40 vessels, including three naval warships, to hinder a resupply operation for another ship on extended patrol in the Sabina Shoal. China’s Coast Guard claimed it implemented control measures against Filipino vessels that had unlawfully entered the waters surrounding Sabina.
• August 31, 2024 – The Philippines and China once again exchanged accusations of deliberately ramming coastguard vessels near Sabina Shoal. Manila stated that the ramming incident caused damage to the Teresa Magbanua, a 97-meter (320-foot) vessel and one of the largest in the Philippine coast guard fleet.