Estonia, together with its Baltic neighbors Latvia and Lithuania, is eagerly anticipating the end of one of the last remnants of 50 years of Soviet rule: a power grid still under Russian control.
As part of the final preparations for this transition, authorities are working to ready the public for the possibility of power outages, a scenario that many consider unlikely. A recent post from the rescue board stated, “Everything should flow smoothly,” while acknowledging that unforeseen circumstances could arise, whether due to actions from their eastern neighbor, adverse weather, or technical issues.
Vootele Päi, an adviser to Estonia’s Interior Ministry, informed CNN that the current risks are relatively low, but they are still making contingency plans for various scenarios.
The Baltic states have been preparing for this pivotal moment since they joined the EU and NATO in 2004, investing nearly two decades in upgrading their infrastructure. This includes the construction of new power lines, such as several undersea cables to Finland and Sweden, as well as the essential LitPol line connecting Lithuania and Poland to the mainland European grid.
As a result, just months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, all three countries successfully ceased purchasing electricity from Moscow.
However, Russia continued to exert control over the grid’s operations, managing supply and demand and maintaining frequency, as noted by Susanne Nies, project lead at the German energy research institute Helmholtz-Zentrum. Additionally, Russia was still providing these services at no cost, a remnant of the Soviet era.
Nies highlighted the significant risk that the Baltics could face a sudden cutoff of support from Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, stating, “The big risk was that the Baltics in the context of the Ukraine war would find themselves in a situation where Russia from one second to the other just says ‘Stop it. We don’t help you anymore.’”
Six months ago, the Baltic nations formally informed Russia of their decision to “desynchronize” from the shared power grid. Consequently, the BRELL agreement, which includes Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, will come to an end on February 7.
On February 8, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will simultaneously disconnect from this grid, temporarily operating as an “island” reliant solely on their own electricity generation. The following day, they intend to synchronize their independent grid with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area, which encompasses the majority of the European Union.
This transition marks a significant milestone. In front of the Energy and Technology Museum in Vilnius, Lithuania’s capital, a countdown clock has been marking the final 100 days to “energy independence.” Jason Moyer, a foreign policy analyst at the Wilson Center in Washington, remarked, “This represents a definitive break from Soviet-era control. Psychologically, it is a monumental advancement.”
The initiative has required substantial investment, primarily funded by the European Union, which has allocated over $1.2 billion in grants. However, the Baltic states deemed the cost of allowing Moscow to retain influence over their energy grid to be excessive. “We recognize that inexpensive Russian energy always comes with a cost that no democratic European nation should bear,” stated Päi.
To further demonstrate their commitment, last year Lithuania’s grid operator, Litgrid, began dismantling old Soviet-era cables connecting to Belarus, allowing for their repurposing.
The company informed the media that it had even dispatched components from a decommissioned power line to Ukraine to assist in the restoration of its damaged energy infrastructure. This action was both practical—given that Ukraine’s grid, originally established during the Soviet era, relies on similar equipment—and symbolic of the geopolitical risks associated with the entire initiative.
“There is no scenario in which we remain connected to the Russian power grid,” stated Rokas Masiulis, the chief executive of Litgrid.
Currently, Baltic leaders, who have been some of the most outspoken critics of the war in Ukraine and among the most generous contributors to Ukraine’s military relative to their GDP, are grappling with the concern that Russia may attempt to take advantage of the disconnection, whether through physical sabotage or other hybrid tactics such as cyberattacks or misinformation campaigns.
Notably, Ukraine had disconnected from the Russian grid for a test just hours prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and has not reconnected since.
Russia has demonstrated a readiness to weaponize electricity supply, evidenced not only by its ongoing assaults on the Ukrainian energy grid but also by its nearly three-year occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which prior to the conflict supplied approximately 20% of Ukraine’s electricity.
The loss of influence over the Baltic states, which were once Soviet satellites, represents a significant geopolitical setback for Russia, according to Moyer. He remarked, “This clearly indicates that Russia is diminishing its sway in the area,” a region that has historically been more open to Russian enterprises. The Kremlin refrained from providing detailed comments, merely stating that it has implemented all necessary measures to guarantee the “uninterrupted and reliable operation of our unified energy system.”
In response, officials in the Baltic nations are adopting a cautious approach. They are enhancing security protocols at energy facilities throughout the region. Lithuania’s Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė expressed to CNN from Vilnius, “Officially, Russia appears to be unfazed. However, our past experiences indicate that their statements do not always align with their actions.”
Šakalienė further stated, “We are intensifying our surveillance efforts and bolstering our security measures, and we will monitor the situation very closely.”
Päi, an adviser to Estonia’s Interior Ministry, mentioned that the Tallinn government is mobilizing additional police forces and enlisting volunteer guards from the National Defence League to safeguard critical infrastructure. He likened the scale of this security initiative to the arrangements made for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit last January, noting, “That was limited to Tallinn, but the energy grid spans the entire country.”
NATO has initiated a new mission aimed at safeguarding undersea cables in the Baltic Sea following the damage to Estlink 2, a vital component of the Baltics’ post-Soviet electricity network, which occurred on Christmas Day. This incident is part of a troubling trend of disruptions affecting the intricate network of cables that run along the Baltic Sea floor.
In the aftermath, grid operators in Finland and the Baltic states reassured customers that electricity supplies remained stable. However, electricity prices did experience a slight increase in late December, and Finnish authorities have indicated that repairs are expected to extend until August.
Finland is currently conducting an investigation into the incident, during which police have detained a vessel transporting Russian oil products, suspected of having dragged its anchor across the damaged cable. A lawyer for the ship’s owner dismissed any claims of sabotage as “nonsense.”
Šakalienė expressed concern to CNN, stating, “Our critical energy infrastructure is now in a very sensitive spot. To think that this series of incidents is occurring just before we sever ties with the Russian network is quite a coincidence, isn’t it?”
One region that remains beyond the oversight of NATO and the Baltic states is Kaliningrad. This small Russian exclave, located between Lithuania and Poland, will now operate as an electricity “island.” While Russia has successfully conducted several tests to manage this situation, experts caution against the possibility of Moscow intentionally escalating tensions.
Nies suggested that Russia might even engineer a simulated blackout in the area, claiming, “Hey, Kaliningrad, this is a result of the Baltic synchronization.” She posits that Russia could then blame the Baltics for plunging Kaliningrad’s one million residents into darkness, using this scenario to extract concessions and gauge NATO’s willingness to support its eastern flank.
The current risk level may be elevated due to the new administration in Washington, which has expressed skepticism towards NATO and is focused on concluding the conflict in Ukraine. Nies remarked, “The Russians are looking to assess NATO’s resilience, and the Baltics serve as a prime testing ground for this.”
