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Victorious Trump back to the White House, ushering in a new period of turmoil

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump attends a wreath laying ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery ahead of the presidential inauguration in Arlington, Virginia, U.S.

Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated as the President of the United States on Monday, marking the beginning of another tumultuous four-year term characterized by his commitment to expand executive authority, deport millions of immigrants, seek revenge against political adversaries, and redefine America’s role on the global stage.

This inauguration signifies a remarkable resurgence for a political maverick who has weathered two impeachment trials, a felony conviction, two assassination attempts, and an indictment related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

The ceremony will occur at noon (1700 GMT) within the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol, four years after a violent breach by Trump supporters aimed at reversing the Republican’s defeat to Democrat Joe Biden. For the first time in four decades, the swearing-in will be held indoors due to severe cold weather.

Trump, the first U.S. president since the 19th century to secure a second term after losing the presidency, has pledged to grant pardons “on Day One” to many of the over 1,500 individuals charged in connection with the January 6, 2021, insurrection.

This commitment is part of a series of executive actions related to immigration, energy, and tariffs that Trump plans to implement immediately after taking the oath of office. During a rally in Washington on Sunday, he promised to enforce stringent immigration policies on his first day.

As he did in 2017, Trump returns to office as a disruptive and chaotic force, determined to overhaul the federal government while expressing significant skepticism towards the U.S.-led alliances that have defined global politics since World War II.

The former president comes back to Washington with renewed confidence after winning the national popular vote against Vice President Kamala Harris by over 2 million votes, driven by widespread voter dissatisfaction with ongoing inflation, although he still fell short of achieving a 50% majority. In 2016, Trump won the presidency through the Electoral College despite receiving nearly 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton.

Jeremi Suri, a presidential historian at the University of Texas at Austin, draws parallels between the current period and the late 19th century, when Grover Cleveland became the only other president to serve non-consecutive terms. He notes that, similar to today, that era was marked by significant upheaval, characterized by industrial advancements that reshaped the economy, a surge in wealth inequality, and a peak in the proportion of immigrant Americans.

“We are witnessing a fundamentally transformed economy and a country that is different in terms of its racial, gender, and social composition, and we are grappling with the implications of these changes,” he remarked. “This is an existential moment.”

Trump will benefit from Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, which have largely eliminated any dissent within the party. His advisors have proposed plans to replace nonpartisan bureaucrats with loyalists chosen for their allegiance.

Even prior to his inauguration, Trump established a competing power base shortly after his election victory, engaging with world leaders and raising eyebrows by suggesting the possibility of seizing the Panama Canal, claiming Greenland from NATO ally Denmark, and imposing tariffs on major U.S. trading partners.

His impact was evident in the recent announcement of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Trump, whose envoy participated in the negotiations in Qatar, had warned of severe consequences if Hamas failed to release hostages before his inauguration.

During his campaign, Trump asserted he would resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict on his first day in office, although his advisors have conceded that any peace agreement will require several months to achieve. Unlike in 2017, when he appointed many traditionalists to key positions, Trump has now prioritized loyalty over experience in selecting a range of controversial cabinet nominees, some of whom have been vocal critics of the very agencies they are set to lead.

The support of Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest individual, is notable, as he invested over $250 million to assist in Trump’s election efforts. Other prominent tech billionaires, including Jeff Bezos of Amazon, Mark Zuckerberg of Meta, Sundar Pichai of Alphabet, and Tim Cook of Apple, are also expected to attend Monday’s ceremony alongside Musk, as reported by Reuters and various media outlets.

On Sunday, Trump announced plans to visit Los Angeles County on Friday, which has been severely affected by wildfires.

‘AMERICAN CARNAGE’

The inauguration will take place under stringent security measures, following a campaign marked by a rise in political violence, including two assassination attempts against Trump, one of which involved a bullet narrowly missing him. Federal authorities remain vigilant after a New Year’s Day incident in New Orleans, where a U.S. Army veteran, allegedly motivated by the Islamic State, drove a truck into a crowd, resulting in 14 fatalities. The FBI has issued warnings regarding the possibility of similar attacks.

Eight years prior, Trump’s inaugural address was characterized by a grim outlook, as he pledged to eradicate the “American carnage” associated with crime-ridden urban areas and lax border security, contrasting sharply with the optimistic tone typically adopted by newly elected presidents. Foreign governments will be closely analyzing the tone of Trump’s speech on Monday, given the inflammatory rhetoric that characterized his campaign.

The traditional parade along Pennsylvania Avenue, which typically passes by the White House, will now be held indoors at the Capital One Arena, the same venue where Trump hosted his victory rally on Sunday. In the evening, Trump is scheduled to attend three inaugural balls.

As part of the day’s festivities, Trump will commence the signing of what could be numerous executive orders. Some of these actions are expected to tighten immigration policies by designating drug cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations” and declaring a state of emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to a source familiar with the preparations. Additional orders may focus on dismantling Biden’s environmental regulations and withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement, as reported by various sources.

Many of these executive orders are anticipated to encounter legal challenges. Notably, Trump will be the first individual with felony convictions to assume the presidency, following a New York jury’s verdict that found him guilty of falsifying business records related to hush money payments made to an adult film actress. He avoided penalties at sentencing, partly due to the judge’s recognition of the challenges in imposing sanctions on an incoming president.

Winning the election also effectively shielded Trump from two federal indictments concerning efforts to overturn the 2020 election and the retention of classified documents, in line with a Justice Department policy that prohibits prosecuting presidents while they are in office. A report released last week by Special Counsel Jack Smith indicated that sufficient evidence had been collected to secure a conviction against Trump in the election-related case had it proceeded to trial.

Which international leaders will be present at Trump’s inauguration, and which ones will not be attending?

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President Donald Trump waves after taking the oath of office for his first term on January 27, 2017.

United States President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be inaugurated for a second term on Monday, January 20, marking his position as the 47th president of the United States.

Both Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance will take the oath of office, commencing a new administration that will feature a day filled with celebrations, including musical performances and a parade.

In a departure from traditional inaugurations, this event will see the attendance of numerous foreign leaders, including both Trump’s allies and some of his political opponents. Invitations have been extended to at least seven current heads of state and two former leaders, with an estimated 500,000 guests anticipated, according to Reuters.

Here’s an overview of the guest list, highlighting who is included, who is absent, and the reasons behind this unconventional selection:

What distinguishes this inauguration?

President-elect Trump is deviating from established US traditions for this occasion. Typically, presidential inaugurations are primarily domestic events, where the president and vice president take their oaths in the presence of US officials, former heads of state, and other American dignitaries on the steps of the US Capitol. The public is permitted to observe from the surrounding areas.

In contrast, this inauguration will feature an inaugural address, a parade, musical performances, and balls, while also embracing an international dimension. Nearly a dozen world leaders, predominantly conservative and right-leaning, have been invited. It is uncommon for foreign leaders to attend US presidential inaugurations; typically, representatives such as ambassadors or foreign ministers fulfill this role.

Who has received invitations?

Several heads of state, particularly right-wing or populist leaders aligned with Trump, have been invited, alongside some of his political rivals. Notably, the following leaders are confirmed:

Argentina’s President Javier Milei: Milei has announced his attendance. Trump has previously praised the far-right leader, stating he can “make Argentina great again,” and welcomed him at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida last December.

Chinese President Xi Jinping: Trump extended an invitation to Xi for the December ceremony, which his representatives interpret as a sign of his willingness to engage with the Chinese leader, despite the ongoing trade tensions. However, Xi will not be present; instead, Vice President Han Zheng will attend.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni: Meloni, representing the far-right Brothers of Italy party, visited Mar-a-Lago in January. Her office has indicated that she is likely to attend the ceremony if her schedule allows.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban: The populist leader and close ally of Trump has expressed confidence that the president-elect will bring an end to Russia’s conflict in Ukraine. However, he will be unable to attend due to a scheduled state address, as reported by local media.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi: Modi and Trump have maintained a strong rapport since Trump’s first term. Following Trump’s election win in December, Modi was among the first to reach out and congratulate him. Although Modi will not be attending, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will represent India at the event.

Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa: Noboa celebrated Trump’s victory in December as a win for Latin America as well. His office has confirmed that he will temporarily suspend his re-election campaign to attend the inauguration in Washington.

El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has yet to confirm his attendance. Notably, Donald Trump Jr., a friend of Bukele, attended his inauguration in San Salvador in July 2024.

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, often referred to as the “Trump of the Tropics,” has received an invitation but will not be present due to a travel ban. His passport was seized by Brazil’s Supreme Court amid ongoing investigations, including alleged efforts to contest the results of the 2022 general election, which he lost.

Former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who has recently taken the helm of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists party in the EU Parliament, is confirmed to attend.

Who has not received an invitation?

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer‘s office confirmed on Thursday that he has not been invited. In contrast, Nigel Farage, the far-right politician from the Reform UK party, is invited and will be in attendance.

Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, along with many members of the European Union and NATO, which predominantly feature centrist governments, have not been invited. Additionally, Germany’s President Olaf Scholz, who oversees the EU’s largest economy, has also been overlooked. However, an invitation has been sent to Alice Weidel, the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD), who will be represented by co-leader Tino Chrupalla.

Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain’s right-wing Vox Party, and Andre Ventura from Portugal’s populist Chega party are set to attend the event.

French President Emmanuel Macron will not be in attendance, despite his amicable relationship with Trump. Instead, Eric Zemmour, a prominent figure in the French far-right and leader of the Reconquest party, will represent France.

Which other nations hold similarly grand swearing-in ceremonies?

While each country has its own customs, inaugurations are generally considered domestic events, often featuring leaders from neighboring nations.

In India, swearing-in ceremonies are increasingly elaborate. For instance, during President Narendra Modi’s third inauguration last July, the guest list included 9,000 attendees, featuring several heads of state from nearby Indian Ocean countries, such as Sri Lanka’s Ranil Wickremesinghe and the recently ousted Bangladeshi president, Sheikh Hasina.

Likewise, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was sworn in for a third consecutive term in June 2023, welcomed 34 world leaders to his opulent celebrations. Notable attendees included South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Gaza ceasefire agreement comes into effect, bringing an end to hostilities following a postponement

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Smoke rises after an explosion in northern Gaza, before a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas goes into effect, as seen from Israel.

A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip came into effect on Sunday following a nearly three-hour delay, temporarily halting a 15-month conflict that has caused widespread destruction and significant political shifts in the Middle East.

Residents and a medical worker in Gaza reported no new hostilities or military actions since approximately half an hour before the ceasefire was officially enacted. According to Palestinian medics, Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire resulted in the deaths of 13 Palestinians between 0630 GMT, when the ceasefire was scheduled to start, and 0915 GMT, when it was ultimately implemented.

Israel attributed the delay to Hamas’s failure to provide a list of the first three hostages to be released under the agreement. In contrast, Hamas cited “technical” reasons for the postponement, without elaborating further. A Palestinian official, who requested anonymity, indicated that the delay was due to mediators requesting 48 hours of “calm” prior to the ceasefire’s initiation, but ongoing Israeli strikes up to the deadline complicated the process of sending the list.

Two hours after the deadline, Hamas announced that it had submitted the list of names, which Israeli officials confirmed receiving. The hostages identified for release on Sunday were Romi Gonen, Doron Steinbrecher, and Emily Damari, although Israel did not immediately verify these names.

This long-awaited ceasefire agreement has the potential to bring an end to the Gaza conflict, which erupted after Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, resulting in approximately 1,200 fatalities, according to Israeli sources.

Israel’s military actions have devastated much of Gaza, resulting in nearly 47,000 Palestinian fatalities, as reported by health authorities in the region. The conflict has also escalated tensions across the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, which supports Hamas and various anti-Israeli and anti-American militant groups.

HOSTAGE LIST, LAST-MINUTE ATTACKS

Prior to the scheduled ceasefire at 0630 GMT, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the ceasefire could not commence until Hamas provided the names of the hostages to be released on Sunday.

Israeli military representatives indicated that their aircraft and artillery targeted “terror sites” in northern and central Gaza, asserting that operations would persist as long as Hamas failed to fulfill its ceasefire commitments. The Palestinian Civil Emergency Service reported that at least 13 individuals were killed in the Israeli strikes, with many others injured. Medical personnel noted that tanks were firing in the Zeitoun area of Gaza City, and both airstrikes and tank fire affected the northern town of Beit Hanoun, causing residents who had returned in anticipation of the ceasefire to flee once again.

The Israeli military clarified that an air raid siren in the Sderot area of southern Israel was a false alarm. Reports from pro-Hamas media indicated that Israeli forces had begun withdrawing from parts of Gaza’s Rafah towards the Philadelphi corridor along the Egypt-Gaza border.

The three-phase ceasefire agreement, which followed extensive negotiations facilitated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, was established just before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on January 20. The initial phase will span six weeks, during which 33 of the remaining 98 hostages—comprising women, children, men over 50, and the ill and injured—will be released in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

The group consists of 737 prisoners, including males, females, and teenagers, some of whom are affiliated with militant organizations and have been convicted for attacks resulting in the deaths of numerous Israelis, as well as hundreds of Palestinians from Gaza who have been detained since the onset of the conflict.

The first three individuals to be released are female hostages, with their release facilitated by the Red Cross on Sunday. In exchange for each hostage, 30 Palestinian prisoners currently held in Israeli facilities will be freed.

According to the agreement, Hamas will notify the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) regarding the designated meeting point within Gaza, and the ICRC is anticipated to proceed to that location to retrieve the hostages, as reported by an official involved in the negotiations to Reuters.

IS THE WAR COMING TO AN END?

President Joe Biden’s administration collaborated closely with former President Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to finalize the agreement. As Trump’s inauguration neared, he consistently urged for a swift resolution, cautioning that there would be severe consequences if the hostages were not released.

However, the future of Gaza remains uncertain without a comprehensive plan addressing the postwar reconstruction of the region, which will necessitate substantial financial resources and years of effort. While the declared purpose of the ceasefire is to bring the conflict to a close, there is a risk it could easily fall apart.

Hamas, which has governed Gaza for nearly twenty years, has managed to endure despite the loss of its senior leadership and thousands of its fighters. Israel has pledged not to permit Hamas to regain control and has cleared significant areas within Gaza, a move widely interpreted as an effort to establish a buffer zone that would enable its forces to operate more freely against potential threats in the region.

In Israel, the potential return of hostages could alleviate some public discontent directed at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing administration, stemming from the security lapses on October 7 that resulted in the deadliest day in the nation’s history.

MIDEAST SHOCKWAVES

The ongoing conflict has reverberated throughout the region, igniting tensions with the Iran-aligned Lebanese Hezbollah and marking Israel’s first direct confrontation with its longstanding adversary, Iran. This situation has also reshaped the dynamics of the Middle East. Iran, which invested heavily in establishing a network of militant factions surrounding Israel, has seen its “Axis of Resistance” significantly weakened, managing to inflict only minimal damage on Israel during two substantial missile strikes.

Hezbollah, once perceived as the greatest threat to Israel due to its extensive missile stockpile, has suffered the loss of key leadership figures and the destruction of much of its missile capabilities and military infrastructure.

On the diplomatic stage, Israel has encountered widespread condemnation and isolation due to the casualties and destruction in Gaza. Netanyahu is currently facing an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes, along with separate genocide accusations at the International Court of Justice.

Israel has responded vehemently to these allegations, dismissing them as politically driven and accusing South Africa, which initiated the ICJ case, along with the supporting nations, of antisemitism.

What are the components of the Gaza ceasefire agreement?

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Protesters outside Israeli Defence Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv call on President-elect Donald Trump to end the war in Gaza.

The key components of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza took effect on Sunday, concluding 15 months of conflict that resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians and heightened tensions in the Middle East.

The commencement of the ceasefire was postponed by nearly three hours after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested Hamas to submit a list of hostages scheduled for release that day. An Israeli official later confirmed that the list had been received.

While the mediators, Israel, and Hamas have not publicly disclosed the specifics of the agreement, officials familiar with the terms have outlined the following points:

  •  The initial ceasefire phase will last six weeks, during which Israeli forces will gradually withdraw from central Gaza, allowing displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza.
  •  The agreement stipulates that 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid will be permitted to enter Gaza daily throughout the ceasefire, with 50 of those trucks designated for fuel. Of the total, 300 trucks will be directed to the northern region, where civilian conditions are particularly dire.
  • Hamas is set to release 33 Israeli hostages, which includes all women (both soldiers and civilians), children, and men aged over 50. The release will prioritize female hostages and those under 19, followed by men over 50. According to the Israeli Prime Minister’s office, three female hostages are expected to be released via the Red Cross on Sunday after 1400 GMT.
  • In return, Israel will release 30 Palestinian detainees for each civilian hostage and 50 Palestinian detainees for every Israeli female soldier released by Hamas.
  • Under the agreement, Hamas will notify the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) of the designated meeting point within Gaza, after which the ICRC will proceed to that location to retrieve the hostages.
  • Israel is set to release all Palestinian women and children under the age of 19 who have been detained since October 7, 2023, by the conclusion of the first phase. The total number of Palestinians released will be contingent upon the number of hostages freed, potentially ranging from 990 to 1,650, encompassing men, women, and children.
  • Hamas will facilitate the release of hostages over a six-week timeframe, ensuring that at least three hostages are freed each week, with the remaining 33 released by the end of this period. Living hostages will be prioritized for release, followed by the remains of deceased hostages.
  • The execution of this agreement will be overseen by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
  • Discussions regarding a second phase of the agreement are set to commence on the 16th day of the first phase, which is anticipated to encompass the release of all remaining hostages, including Israeli male soldiers, the establishment of a permanent ceasefire, and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.
  • The third phase is expected to involve the return of all remaining deceased individuals and the initiation of reconstruction efforts in Gaza, under the supervision of Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.

Israeli forces have initiated an attack on Gaza after the ceasefire deadline has passed

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Smoke rises after an explosion in northern Gaza, before a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas goes into effect, as seen from Israel.

Israeli air and ground forces launched strikes on the northern Gaza Strip on Sunday, resulting in the deaths of eight individuals, according to Palestinian medical sources. This escalation occurred shortly after Israel and Hamas failed to meet a ceasefire deadline that could potentially bring an end to one of the most severe conflicts in the region in recent years.

The postponement of the ceasefire and the ensuing violence followed a request from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who, just an hour before the 0630 GMT deadline, asked Hamas to provide the names of three hostages scheduled for release that day as part of the agreement.

Hamas asserted its commitment to the ceasefire but cited “technical field reasons” for its inability to deliver the hostage list, without further details. The ceasefire arrangement holds the potential to conclude the ongoing Gaza conflict, which erupted after Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, resulting in approximately 1,200 fatalities, as reported by Israeli officials.

In retaliation, Israel’s military actions have devastated the Gaza Strip, leading to nearly 47,000 Palestinian deaths, according to health authorities in Gaza. The conflict has also sparked broader tensions across the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, which supports Hamas and various anti-Israeli and anti-American militant groups in the region.

Israeli military representatives stated on Sunday that their forces targeted “terror sites” in northern and central Gaza, emphasizing that operations would persist as long as Hamas failed to fulfill its commitments under the ceasefire agreement.

The Palestinian Civil Emergency Service reported that Israeli attacks resulted in the deaths of at least eight individuals, with many others injured. Medics indicated that tanks were targeting the Zeitoun area of Gaza City, while both an airstrike and tank fire struck the northern town of Beit Hanoun, causing residents who had returned in hopes of a ceasefire to flee once again.

The Israeli military clarified that an air raid siren that had sounded in the Sderot area of southern Israel was a false alarm.

In Khan Younis, celebratory gunfire and cheers were heard at 8:30 a.m. (0630 GMT), coinciding with the anticipated start of the ceasefire. Reports from pro-Hamas media indicated that Israeli forces began their withdrawal from areas in Gaza’s Rafah towards the Philadelphi corridor along the Egypt-Gaza border early on Sunday.

HOSTAGE LIST

Prime Minister Netanyahu requested a list of the first three hostages expected to be released shortly after the ceasefire, just one hour before the deadline. His office stated, “The prime minister instructed the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) that the ceasefire, scheduled to commence at 8:30 a.m., will not take effect until Israel receives the list of released abductees that Hamas has committed to providing.” Hamas attributed the delay to “technical” issues but assured that the names of the hostages would be disclosed soon.

The three-phase ceasefire agreement emerged after several months of intermittent negotiations facilitated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, coinciding with the upcoming inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on January 20.

The initial phase will span six weeks, during which 33 of the remaining 98 hostages—comprising women, children, men over 50, and those who are ill or injured—will be released in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. This group includes 737 individuals, including men, women, and teenagers, some of whom are affiliated with militant organizations and have been convicted for attacks resulting in the deaths of numerous Israelis, alongside hundreds of Palestinians from Gaza who have been detained since the onset of the conflict.

The first three hostages, all women, are anticipated to be released via the Red Cross on Sunday. For each woman released, 30 Palestinian prisoners currently held in Israeli facilities will be freed. According to the agreement, Hamas will notify the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) of the designated meeting point within Gaza, and the ICRC is expected to proceed to that location to retrieve the hostages, as reported by an official involved in the negotiations.

ENDING THE WAR?

Following the release of hostages on Sunday, lead U.S. negotiator Brett McGurk announced that the agreement stipulates the release of four additional female hostages within the next seven days, with three more hostages to be freed every subsequent week. The Biden administration collaborated closely with former President Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to finalize the arrangement. As Trump’s inauguration neared, he consistently urged for a swift resolution, cautioning that failure to secure the hostages’ release would result in severe consequences.

However, the future of Gaza remains uncertain without a comprehensive plan for the region’s postwar reconstruction, which will necessitate substantial financial investment and years of effort. While the ceasefire aims to bring an end to the conflict, its stability is precarious. Hamas, which has governed Gaza for nearly twenty years, has managed to endure despite significant losses in leadership and personnel. Israel has committed to preventing Hamas from regaining control and has cleared extensive areas within Gaza, a move interpreted as an effort to establish a buffer zone that would enable its forces to operate more freely against potential threats.

In Israel, the return of the hostages may alleviate some public discontent directed at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing administration, stemming from the security lapses that led to the tragic events of October 7, which marked the deadliest day in the nation’s history.

MIDEAST SHOCKWAVES

The conflict has reverberated throughout the region, igniting tensions with the Tehran-supported Lebanese Hezbollah and marking the first direct confrontation between Israel and its long-standing adversary, Iran. This situation has significantly altered the dynamics of the Middle East. Iran, which invested heavily in establishing a network of militant factions surrounding Israel, has witnessed the disintegration of its “Axis of Resistance” and has been unable to deliver more than minimal damage to Israel during two significant missile strikes.

Hezbollah, once perceived as the most formidable threat to Israel due to its extensive missile stockpile, has suffered the loss of its senior leadership and the destruction of a majority of its missiles and military assets.

On the diplomatic stage, Israel is grappling with widespread condemnation and isolation due to the casualties and destruction in Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu is contending with an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court related to war crimes, alongside separate allegations of genocide at the International Court of Justice. Israel has responded vehemently to these accusations, dismissing them as politically driven and accusing South Africa, which initiated the ICJ case, along with the supporting nations, of antisemitism.

Gaza ceasefire postponed due to hostage list issues

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Buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from southern Israel.

A ceasefire in Gaza, scheduled to commence on Sunday morning, has been postponed following a request from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for Hamas to provide a list of hostages to be released that day. Hamas responded that it was unable to do so due to “technical” issues.

An Israeli military spokesperson stated at 0630 GMT, the time the ceasefire was expected to start, that Hamas was failing to fulfill its obligations, and Israel would persist with its military actions until its demands were met.

This anticipated ceasefire could potentially bring an end to a 15-month conflict that has significantly impacted the Middle East. Netanyahu announced just an hour before the ceasefire was set to begin that it would not take effect until Hamas submitted a list of the first three hostages scheduled for release on Sunday. His office confirmed that the prime minister directed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to delay the ceasefire, originally planned for 8:30 a.m., until the list of released individuals was received.

Hamas reiterated its commitment to the ceasefire agreement but attributed the delay in providing the names of the hostages to “technical field reasons,” without further details. Reports from pro-Hamas media indicated that Israeli forces had begun to withdraw from areas in Gaza’s Rafah towards the Philadelphi corridor along the Egypt-Gaza border early on Sunday. Explosions were reported in Gaza right up to the deadline, and at 0630 GMT (8:30 a.m. local time), residents in Khan Younis celebrated, with gunfire heard in the air.

Israel’s military has issued a warning to residents of Gaza, advising them to avoid approaching its forces or moving throughout the Palestinian territory as the ceasefire deadline approaches. They stated that once movement is permitted, a formal announcement with guidelines for safe transit will be provided.

This ceasefire agreement, which consists of three phases, emerged after extensive negotiations facilitated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, coinciding with the upcoming inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on January 20.

The initial phase will span six weeks, during which 33 of the remaining 98 hostages—comprising women, children, men over 50, and those who are ill or injured—will be released in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. This group includes 737 individuals of various ages, some of whom are affiliated with militant organizations and have been convicted of attacks resulting in numerous Israeli casualties, alongside hundreds of Palestinians from Gaza who have been detained since the conflict began.

On Sunday afternoon, three female hostages are anticipated to be released through the Red Cross, in exchange for 30 prisoners each. Following this release, U.S. negotiator Brett McGurk indicated that the agreement stipulates the release of four additional female hostages after a week, with three more hostages to be freed every subsequent week.

During this initial phase, the Israeli military will withdraw from certain positions in Gaza, allowing displaced Palestinians from northern Gaza to return to their homes.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration collaborated closely with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, to finalize the agreement. As Trump’s inauguration neared, he consistently urged for a swift resolution, cautioning that there would be severe consequences if the hostages were not freed.

FUTURE OF GAZA POST-CONFLICT?

The future of Gaza remains uncertain without a comprehensive plan for its postwar reconstruction, which will necessitate significant financial investment and years of effort. While the ceasefire aims to bring an end to the conflict, its stability is questionable. Hamas, which has governed Gaza for nearly twenty years, has managed to endure despite the loss of its senior leaders and numerous fighters.

Israel has committed to preventing Hamas from regaining control and has cleared extensive areas within Gaza, a move interpreted as an effort to establish a buffer zone that would enable its forces to operate more freely against potential threats in the region.

In Israel, the return of the hostages may alleviate some public discontent directed at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing administration regarding the security lapses that led to the tragic events of October 7, which marked the deadliest day in the nation’s history. However, hardline members of his government have already signaled their intention to withdraw support if military action against Hamas does not resume, placing Netanyahu in a challenging position between the U.S. push for peace and the demands of his far-right political partners.

If hostilities resume, numerous hostages may remain in Gaza.

MIDEAST SHOCKWAVES

The conflict has reverberated throughout the region, igniting a confrontation with the Iran-supported Lebanese Hezbollah and drawing Israel into direct engagement with its longstanding adversary, Iran, for the first time.

Over a year later, the landscape of the Middle East has dramatically changed. Iran, which invested heavily in establishing a network of militant factions surrounding Israel, has seen its “Axis of Resistance” severely weakened and has been unable to cause significant harm to Israel during two major missile offensives.

Hezbollah, once perceived as the most formidable threat to Israel due to its extensive missile stockpile, has been significantly diminished, with key leaders eliminated and much of its missile and military infrastructure obliterated.

In the wake of these events, the long-standing Assad regime in Syria has been dismantled, eliminating another key Iranian ally and leaving Israel’s military largely unopposed in the region.

On the diplomatic stage, Israel has encountered widespread condemnation and isolation due to the casualties and destruction in Gaza.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes, along with separate charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice.

Israel has responded vehemently to these allegations, dismissing them as politically driven and accusing South Africa, which initiated the ICJ case, along with the nations that have supported it, of antisemitism.

The conflict was ignited by Hamas’ assault on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, resulting in the deaths of 1,200 individuals and the abduction of over 250, as reported by Israeli sources. Since then, more than 400 Israeli soldiers have lost their lives in the ongoing combat in Gaza. Israel’s extensive military operation in Gaza, which has lasted 15 months, has devastated much of the densely populated coastal region, leading to nearly 47,000 Palestinian fatalities, according to figures from the Gaza health ministry.

The United Nations human rights office has indicated that the majority of the confirmed deaths are women and children. Israel contends that over one-third of those killed in Gaza are combatants.

NATO F-16 pilot dies in Russian attack – TASS

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Ukrainian service personnel use searchlights as they search for drones in the sky over the city during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Danish instructor Jepp Hansen, who was engaged in training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, has reportedly been killed in a Russian missile strike in Ukraine, according to TASS on Saturday.

Sources from Russian law enforcement have informed the agency that Hansen lost his life during an assault on a training facility located in Krivoy Rog, in the Dnepropetrovsk Region of central Ukraine.

Earlier, the Russian newspaper Gazeta reported that Russian forces utilized an Iskander missile to target a former university building in the city, which had been repurposed by the Ukrainian military as barracks. Reports indicate that the upper section of the four-story structure was nearly entirely destroyed, while the facade suffered extensive damage.

Russian media, referencing a social media post by Hansen’s friend, noted that he possessed considerable expertise in flying F-16 jets and had trained “hundreds of Ukrainians” in their operation.

As of now, neither Denmark nor the Russian Defense Ministry has provided an official statement regarding these reports.

In the previous year, the Netherlands and Denmark supplied 20 F-16s to Ukraine and have committed to delivering additional aircraft through 2025. Norway, Belgium, and Greece have also expressed intentions to send several fighter jets to Kyiv.

Moscow has condemned the Western arms deliveries, asserting that they will merely extend the conflict without altering its outcome. It has also characterized the provision of F-16s as an escalation of hostilities.

United States has stationed upgraded nuclear weapons in Europe

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A frontal view of four B-61 nuclear gravity bombs on a cart.

The United States has finalized the modernization of its main thermonuclear weapon, as stated by NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby. She noted that the B61-12 variant of the gravity bomb has already been deployed at military bases in Europe as part of NATO’s nuclear weapons-sharing initiative.

The B61 series has been operational for more than five decades. The B61-12 Life Extension Program, which began in 2008, focuses on upgrading both the nuclear and non-nuclear components of the bomb, thereby extending its operational life by a minimum of 20 years. Earlier this month, the US National Nuclear Security Administration confirmed the program’s completion, with the last planned unit of the B61-12 now produced.

“The new B61-12 gravity bombs are fully forward deployed, and we have enhanced NATO’s awareness of our nuclear capabilities through visits to our enterprise and other regular engagements,” Hruby remarked during her address at the Hudson Institute on Thursday.

While Hruby did not provide specifics on what “full forward deployment” entails, previous variants of the B61 have been stored in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Türkiye as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangement. Moscow estimates that at least 150 of these bombs are stationed across Europe, which lowers the nuclear threshold.

Additionally, the US intends to position its nuclear weapons in the UK, according to various reports that reference procurement contracts for a new Pentagon facility at the RAF station in Lakenheath, Suffolk, designated for B61-12 bombs.

“Our strategic partnership with the UK is robust, as is their dedication to their nuclear deterrent. We have also collaborated on enhancing our understanding of critical supply chain resilience,” Hruby stated, though she did not elaborate further.

In November, the Pentagon revealed a modification to its nuclear deterrence strategy. This strategy emphasizes heightened readiness for the Ohio-class submarines equipped with nuclear capabilities and the advancement of the B61-13 gravity bomb, aimed at providing the United States with “additional options against certain harder and larger military targets.” The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has confirmed that it is in the process of transitioning to the production of this new bomb variant.

The Kremlin has repeatedly condemned the military expansions by the United States, cautioning that the worldwide deployment of nuclear-capable weapons could elicit a corresponding response. In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin mandated a revision of the country’s nuclear doctrine, stating that “an aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state will be regarded as their joint attack.”

These modifications received approval in November, following the decision by the US and several Western nations to permit Ukraine to utilize foreign-made long-range weaponry for strikes deep within Russian territory, despite Moscow’s warnings that such actions would escalate the conflict and lead to NATO’s direct involvement.

In retaliation for Ukraine’s cross-border assaults using US-supplied ATACMS and HIMARS systems, as well as British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, Russia executed a ‘combat test’ of its new Oreshnik medium-range hypersonic missile against a military facility in Ukraine.

Last month, Russia and Belarus concluded a security agreement that solidifies plans to deploy Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus by 2025. Moscow asserts that these missiles cannot be intercepted by existing Western defense systems and are capable of reaching targets across Europe within minutes.

Israeli troops start withdrawing from Gaza in anticipation of a ceasefire, pro-Hamas media reports

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An Israeli tank maneuvers, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, by Israel's border with Lebanon in northern Israel.

Israeli forces have begun their withdrawal from certain regions in Rafah, Gaza, moving towards the Philadelphi corridor along the Egypt-Gaza border, as reported by pro-Hamas media early Sunday.

A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is scheduled to take effect on Sunday morning, with a subsequent hostage release planned for later in the day. This development may signal a potential conclusion to a 15-month conflict that has significantly impacted the Middle East.

The ceasefire agreement emerged after extensive negotiations facilitated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, coinciding with the upcoming inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump on January 20. The ceasefire will be implemented in three phases, starting at 0630 GMT on Sunday.

The initial phase will span six weeks, during which 33 of the remaining 98 hostages—comprising women, children, men over 50, and those who are ill or injured—will be released in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. This group includes 737 individuals of various ages, some of whom are affiliated with militant organizations and have been convicted of attacks resulting in numerous Israeli casualties, alongside hundreds of Palestinians detained since the conflict began.

On Sunday afternoon, three female hostages are anticipated to be released through the Red Cross, with a reciprocal exchange of 30 prisoners for each. Following this initial release, US negotiator Brett McGurk indicated that the agreement stipulates the release of four additional female hostages after a week, with three more hostages to be freed every subsequent week. During this first phase, the Israeli military will withdraw from certain positions in Gaza, allowing displaced Palestinians from northern Gaza to return to their homes.

US President Joe Biden’s administration collaborated closely with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, to finalize the agreement. As Trump’s inauguration neared, he consistently urged for a swift resolution, cautioning that there would be severe consequences if the hostages were not freed.

Post-war Gaza?

What lies ahead for Gaza remains uncertain due to the lack of a comprehensive plan for the region’s postwar future, which will necessitate significant financial investment and extensive efforts for reconstruction. While the ceasefire aims to bring an end to the conflict, its stability is questionable. Hamas, which has governed Gaza for nearly twenty years, has managed to endure despite the loss of its senior leaders and numerous fighters.

Israel has declared that it will not permit Hamas to regain control and has cleared substantial areas within Gaza, a move interpreted as an effort to establish a buffer zone that would enable its forces to operate more freely against potential threats. The return of the hostages may alleviate some public discontent directed at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing administration regarding the security lapses that led to the tragic events of October 7.

However, hardline members of his government have already signaled their intention to resign if military action against Hamas does not resume, placing Netanyahu in a difficult position between the U.S. administration’s push for peace and the demands of his far-right political partners. Should hostilities restart, many hostages could remain stranded in Gaza.

Mideast Turmoil

The conflict in Gaza has reverberated throughout the Middle East, igniting a war with the Iran-supported Lebanese Hezbollah and marking Israel’s first direct confrontation with its long-standing adversary, Iran.

Over a year later, the landscape of the region has dramatically changed. Iran, which invested heavily in establishing a network of militant factions surrounding Israel, has seen its “Axis of Resistance” severely weakened, managing to inflict only minimal damage on Israel during two significant missile strikes.

Hezbollah, once perceived as the greatest threat to Israel due to its extensive missile stockpile, has been significantly diminished, with many of its senior leaders killed and a large portion of its missile capabilities and military infrastructure destroyed.

In the wake of these developments, the long-standing Assad regime in Syria has been dismantled, eliminating another key Iranian ally and leaving Israel’s military largely unopposed in the region.

However, on the diplomatic front, Israel has encountered widespread condemnation and isolation due to the extensive loss of life and destruction in Gaza.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes, along with separate genocide accusations at the International Court of Justice. Israel has responded vehemently to these allegations, dismissing them as politically motivated and accusing South Africa, which initiated the ICJ case, along with the supporting nations, of antisemitism.

The conflict was ignited by Hamas’ attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, resulting in the deaths of 1,200 individuals and over 250 hostages, according to Israeli reports. Since then, more than 400 Israeli soldiers have lost their lives in combat operations in Gaza.

Israel’s 15-month military campaign in Gaza has reportedly resulted in nearly 47,000 Palestinian deaths, as per figures from the Gaza health ministry, which does not differentiate between combatants and civilians, leaving the coastal enclave in ruins. Health officials indicate that the majority of the deceased are civilians, while Israel claims that over a third are militants.

Netanyahu says a Gaza ceasefire won’t happen until hostages’ names are revealed

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has directed the Israeli military to delay the commencement of the ceasefire in Gaza, which is set to take effect at 8:30 a.m. (0630 GMT), until Hamas provides the names of the hostages to be released, according to a statement from his office on Sunday.

The statement indicated that the prime minister has instructed the IDF that the ceasefire will not be initiated at 8:30 a.m. until Israel receives the list of abductees that Hamas has committed to releasing.

Philippines and the United States conduct collaborative maritime drills in the South China Sea

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A crew member works on the deck of the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier during an earlier maritime exercise in the Philippine Sea.

The Philippines and the United States conducted their fifth round of joint maritime exercises in the South China Sea, as reported by Manila’s armed forces on Sunday, a development likely to provoke China.

According to a statement from the Philippine military, the “maritime cooperative activity” took place on Friday and Saturday, marking the first such exercise of the year and the fifth since the initiation of these joint operations in 2023.

Under the leadership of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., security collaborations between the two nations have intensified, with a shift towards closer ties with Washington. This has facilitated the expansion of military bases accessible to American forces, including those positioned near Taiwan.

The recent maritime exercises featured the U.S. Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group, accompanied by two guided missile destroyers, two helicopters, and two F-18 Hornet aircraft.

On the Philippine side, the Antonio Luna frigate, Andres Bonifacio patrol ship, two FA-50 fighter jets, and air force search and rescue units were deployed.

The Philippine armed forces stated that these activities “reinforced bilateral maritime cooperation and interoperability.” This joint exercise coincided with the Philippines’ recent objections to the presence of Chinese coast guard vessels within its maritime zone, including a notably large ship referred to as “the monster” due to its size.

The Chinese embassy in Manila did not provide an immediate response to requests for comment over the weekend.

Trump intends to travel to China during his presidency, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal

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U.S. President Donald Trump poses for a photo with China's President Xi Jinping before their bilateral meeting during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has indicated to his advisers a desire to visit China following his inauguration, as reported by the Wall Street Journal on Saturday, citing sources familiar with the matter. According to the report, Trump is particularly interested in making this trip within his first 100 days in office.

With Trump’s inauguration set for Monday, Chinese state media announced on Friday that Vice President Han Zheng will be present, signaling Beijing’s readiness to enhance cooperation.

Discussions have taken place between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, facilitated by their representatives, regarding a potential in-person meeting. One possibility includes Trump inviting Xi to the United States, as noted by the WSJ. The Chinese embassy in Washington has not yet responded to inquiries for comment.

Malaysia takes the lead in ASEAN while balancing expectations regarding Myanmar and the South China Sea

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The ASEAN flag is placed alongside the flags of its member countries ahead of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat in Langkawi, Malaysia.

Southeast Asian foreign ministers convened for a private retreat in Malaysia on Sunday, marking the country’s inaugural meeting as the chair of the ASEAN regional bloc. This gathering occurs against the backdrop of a worsening civil conflict in Myanmar and ongoing tensions in the South China Sea.

As Malaysia assumes the rotating chairmanship of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the bloc faces challenges posed by China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea and a stalled peace process regarding Myanmar, where the military government intends to conduct elections this year.

While Malaysia is dedicated to tackling regional challenges, a senior official cautioned that expectations regarding Myanmar and the progress of discussions on an ASEAN-China code of conduct for the South China Sea should be tempered. “Claiming that we will find an immediate solution would be overly ambitious,” stated Amran Mohamed Zin, the secretary general of the Malaysian foreign ministry, during a media briefing prior to the retreat on Langkawi island.

Since the military coup in early 2021 that ousted an elected civilian government, Myanmar has been engulfed in chaos, leading to pro-democracy protests that have escalated into a widespread armed rebellion across the nation. Despite facing numerous challenges, including a devastated economy and the banning of numerous political parties, the junta is determined to proceed with elections this year, which critics have condemned as a façade to maintain military control through proxies.

To date, ASEAN has struggled to implement a “Five-Point Consensus” peace plan introduced shortly after the coup, which calls for dialogue and a cessation of hostilities, and has yet to establish a unified stance on the upcoming election. “Everyone is eager to assist Myanmar… engagements have taken place and will persist under Malaysia’s leadership,” Amran remarked.

TENTATIVE PROGRESS

Amran emphasized that each ASEAN member state has a crucial role in maintaining the South China Sea as a “sea of peace and trade.” He noted that initial steps have been taken towards establishing a code of conduct with China, which asserts its sovereignty over a significant portion of this vital waterway.

The South China Sea is a key route for approximately $3 trillion in annual maritime trade and has witnessed intense confrontations in recent years, particularly between the Philippines and China, a principal player in the region’s trade and investment landscape. Additionally, Vietnam and Malaysia have raised concerns regarding the actions of Chinese vessels operating within their exclusive economic zones, which China claims are functioning lawfully within its jurisdiction.

On Saturday, the Philippine foreign minister indicated to Reuters that it is time to address complex “milestone issues” related to the long-standing code, such as its scope and the potential for it to be legally binding. Adib Zalkapli, managing director at Viewfinder Global Affairs, remarked that while there is political will in Malaysia to seek a resolution for Myanmar, tangible advancements on regulations for the South China Sea are unlikely during Malaysia’s leadership. “It remains a matter that the claimant states must manage and contain to prevent unnecessary escalation,” Abib stated.

German ambassador warns against Trump’s initiative to change the constitutional framework, per a document

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Donald Trump gestures at Turning Point USA's AmericaFest in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S.

Germany’s ambassador to the United States has expressed concerns that the forthcoming Trump administration may undermine the independence of U.S. law enforcement and the media, while granting significant influence to major technology companies. This warning is detailed in a confidential document reviewed by Reuters.

Dated January 14 and authored by Ambassador Andreas Michaelis, the briefing outlines Donald Trump’s objectives for his anticipated second term as one characterized by “maximum disruption,” which could lead to a “redefinition of the constitutional order” that concentrates power in the presidency at the expense of Congress and state governments.

The document states that “fundamental democratic principles and checks and balances will be significantly weakened,” with the legislature, law enforcement, and media potentially being politicized and stripped of their autonomy, while Big Tech is positioned to gain co-governing authority.

Trump’s transition team has not yet responded to the ambassador’s remarks. The German foreign ministry acknowledged that U.S. voters elected Trump through a democratic process and expressed a commitment to collaborating closely with the new U.S. administration for the benefit of Germany and Europe.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s outgoing government has largely avoided overt public criticism of Trump since the election; however, the ambassador’s confidential insights provide a candid perspective from a high-ranking German official. Typically, ambassadors remain in their positions during a new administration unless a change is warranted for diplomatic reasons.

The document highlights the judiciary, particularly the U.S. Supreme Court, as pivotal to Trump’s efforts to advance his agenda, noting that while the court has recently expanded presidential powers, “even the most vocal critics believe it will mitigate the worst outcomes.”

Michaelis views the control of the Justice Department and the FBI as crucial for Trump to achieve his political and personal ambitions, which include mass deportations, revenge against perceived adversaries, and legal immunity. He asserts that Trump possesses extensive legal avenues to impose his agenda on the states, suggesting that “even military deployment for law enforcement purposes could be feasible in the case of a declared ‘insurrection’ or ‘invasion.'”

The 1878 Posse Comitatus Act restricts federal military involvement in domestic law enforcement, although there are certain exceptions. Michaelis also anticipates a “redefinition of the First Amendment,” noting that Trump and billionaire Elon Musk are already taking measures against critics and media outlets that do not comply. “One is utilizing lawsuits, threatening criminal charges and license revocation, while the other is manipulating algorithms and blocking accounts,” he states in the document.

Musk’s ongoing support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in advance of the February 23 national election has sparked backlash in Berlin, yet the government has refrained from a unanimous departure from his platform. Berlin experienced a particularly strained relationship with the United States during Trump’s first term, facing significant tariffs and criticism for not meeting NATO’s defense spending targets.

Widespread blackouts have affected large areas of army-controlled Sudan following drone strikes

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Plumes of smoke rise during clashes between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the army in Khartoum, Sudan.

Most regions in Sudan under army control are experiencing widespread blackouts due to drone strikes on power generation facilities carried out by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, as reported by government officials and local residents to Reuters.

The outages commenced on Monday following drone assaults on the Merowe Dam, the largest in the country, which impacted the northern state of Sudan. Additionally, a technical malfunction affected the River Nile and Red Sea states. The situation worsened on Saturday after an overnight attack on the al-Shouk power station in eastern Sudan, leading to power outages in Gedaref, Kassala, and Sennar states, according to officials and residents.

These blackouts predominantly affect areas still under army control, which has been engaged in a nearly two-year conflict with the RSF, the latter of which governs much of the western region of the country. The ongoing fighting has also disrupted electricity generation in most RSF-held territories.

The regions experiencing blackouts are home to millions of internally displaced individuals, exacerbating the strain on living conditions and infrastructure.

“The assault on the power station has resulted in the loss of electricity to hospitals, schools, and water facilities, endangering civilian lives, especially in these challenging humanitarian conditions,” stated the human rights organization Emergency Lawyers. “These attacks not only strip civilians of their fundamental rights but also heighten the risk of further violence,” they added.

The conflict in Sudan has led to the displacement of over 12 million people, and the global hunger monitor has estimated that approximately 24.6 million individuals, or nearly half of the Sudanese population, are in urgent need of food assistance through May.

Residents of Omdurman, located in the broader Khartoum region and partially under military control, have reported the closure of bakeries, leading many to draw water from the Nile River. Meanwhile, engineers are making efforts to restore functionality at the Merowe power station, although they have not yet achieved success, according to sources in the area.

Russia and Iran bolster their partnership following challenges in Syria

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Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of a cultural forum dedicated to the 300th anniversary of the birth of the Turkmen poet and philosopher Magtymguly Fragi, in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

Iran and Russia have finalized a long-awaited cooperation agreement, solidifying their relationship as both nations confront increasing geopolitical challenges.

The 20-year pact, signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday, enhances military and defense collaboration. It includes a provision ensuring that neither country will permit its territory to be used for actions that could jeopardize the other’s security, nor will they assist any entity that attacks either nation.

Discussions about such an agreement have been ongoing for years, but recent developments have intensified the urgency for its establishment.

For Russia, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has strained its geopolitical influence, while Iran, alongside Moscow, has been dealing with Western sanctions and the repercussions of Israel’s assaults on its regional allies, compounded by the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria earlier this month.

Syria has arguably been a significant factor driving the enhancement of ties, as both nations have lost a crucial ally in al-Assad, diminishing their influence in the broader Middle East.

Ultimately, both Moscow and Tehran have shown a willingness to move beyond their support for al-Assad, having been taken by surprise by the opposition’s advances. They now seem dedicated to fortifying their bilateral relationship.

The establishment of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement during Pezeshkian’s official visit to Moscow signifies a notable development.

This agreement not only enhances Russian-Iranian collaboration concerning Ukraine and strategies to circumvent Western sanctions but also supports the North-South Transport Corridor—an initiative promoted by Moscow to streamline trade from Asia to Russia.

This route aims to avoid geopolitical bottlenecks such as the Suez Canal and the Baltic Sea, favoring a land corridor that traverses Iran, Azerbaijan, and the Caspian Sea.

Syria as a catalyst

Before the onset of the Syrian war in 2011, both Moscow and Tehran had established their own strategic alliances with Damascus.

Russia’s partnership was primarily linked to the naval base in Tartous, created in 1971 to extend its influence in the Mediterranean, and the Khmeimim airbase, which was constructed in 2015 to support al-Assad against the Syrian opposition. Over time, this airbase has become crucial for Moscow’s operations in Africa.

Conversely, Iran strengthened its ties during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, motivated by a shared opposition to Western intervention in the region. Syria emerged as a vital link to the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah, integral to Iran’s “Shia crescent” and “axis of resistance.”

Iranian and Russian strategic interests aligned in Syria as the conflict evolved, particularly in 2015, when both nations intervened decisively to thwart an opposition victory.

Russia’s military involvement in 2015 helped stabilize President al-Assad’s regime, supported by Iranian-backed militias that were instrumental in shifting the momentum of the war.

“Since then, the relationship between Russia and Iran has broadened,” stated Kirill Semenov, a non-resident expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, in an interview. “Post-2020, developments in Syria have had a limited effect on Russian-Iranian relations, which have diversified into various new areas.”

These areas encompass military collaboration and an increase in economic partnerships, with Tehran and Moscow striving to circumvent Western sanctions through alternative financial systems and energy agreements. Iran has also emerged as a crucial transit point for Russia’s North-South Transport Corridor, providing an essential trade route to Asia.

The relationship has further strengthened since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, during which Russia has utilized Iranian-supplied drones, motivated by mutual interests in challenging the perceived global dominance of the United States. Both nations are exploring alternatives to the US-led international framework, with Iran perceiving Russia as a key ally in its shift towards the East.

Iran’s accession to the BRICS group of emerging economies in 2023, which already included Russia, can be interpreted as a strategic move towards greater collaboration. BRICS serves as a platform for Iran to pursue membership and align itself with a multipolar economic bloc that resonates with its objectives.

Semenov emphasized that the pursuit of a multipolar world and the need to counter the expansionist ambitions of the United States and the collective West are fundamental to the cooperation between Russia and Iran.

This shared adversarial perspective has fostered a closer relationship between the two nations, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs.

Azizi noted that both countries have made strides to enhance their relationship into a strategic partnership, particularly in military, security, and increasingly economic cooperation, aimed at circumventing sanctions and addressing the adverse effects of Western economic pressures.

Limits to a Russian-Iranian partnership

However, there are limitations to the Russian-Iranian partnership. The cooperation agreement signed recently indicates a strengthening of ties but lacks a mutual defense clause and does not establish a formal alliance, in contrast to the treaty Russia entered into with North Korea last year.

This may highlight the constraints within the Iran-Russia relationship, which have already been evident in Syria, where both nations struggled to find common ground and often undermined each other’s efforts in the reconstruction of the war-torn country.

In 2017, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin asserted that Russia would be the sole nation responsible for the reconstruction of Syria’s energy sector. Meanwhile, Iran, eager to capitalize on the reconstruction opportunities, found itself sidelined by both al-Assad and Moscow, with one Iranian parliament member cautioning that Iran was being “sacrificed.”

The evolving Syrian administration could also highlight differences between Russia and Iran, as Moscow is likely to adopt a more accommodating stance.

Azizi pointed out that the implications of al-Assad’s potential downfall for both Russia and Iran will hinge on various factors, including “whether there has been any covert agreement or understanding between Russia and the US, Turkiye, and the former Syrian rebels, as part of a broader deal encompassing Syria and Ukraine.”

He further explained that if Russia can retain its military installations in Syria, even in a diminished role, and if a resolution to the Ukraine conflict is reached following the inauguration of [US President-elect] Donald Trump, Russia might find itself less reliant on Iranian support in both Syria and Ukraine. However, Azizi expressed skepticism about any significant shifts in Iran-Russia relations, citing the “growing depth of cooperation” observed in recent years.

Divergence may also occur in various other domains, particularly regarding nuclear weapons, which the West has accused Iran of pursuing. Officially, Iran’s defense doctrine rejects the development of nuclear arms; however, certain factions within the country have recently advocated for a shift in this stance following Israel’s significant actions against its allies, notably Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Historically, Russia has played a role in Iran’s nuclear initiatives, including the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power facility, but it has often hindered progress during the 2000s and 2010s, leading some Iranian officials to label Russia as an unreliable ally. Additionally, Moscow postponed the delivery of the S-300 missile defense system from 2010 to 2016 due to sanctions imposed on Tehran by Western countries.

“Russia is not inclined to allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, as this would disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East to Russia’s detriment. Ideally, Russia prefers Iran to remain under sanctions while it confronts the US and Europe regarding its nuclear ambitions,” stated Armin Montazeri, foreign policy editor at Hammihan Daily in Tehran.

“Should Russia engage in efforts to contain Iran, it would likely demand concessions from the US concerning the Ukraine situation,” Montazeri further noted.

Evolving Alliances in the Middle East

Geopolitical landscapes are subject to change based on real-time developments, as evidenced by the situation in Syria. The absence of strong ideological ties beyond a shared anti-US sentiment could lead to a deterioration of relations between Iran and Russia.

The shifting nature of alliances is illustrated by Turkiye’s stance, which opposes Iran and Russia while simultaneously cooperating with them.

In December 2024, as the Assad regime faced collapse, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran, and Russia met on the sidelines of the Doha Forum in Qatar.

The tripartite meeting was held as part of the Astana process, a diplomatic effort focused on addressing the Syrian conflict, with Russia and Iran acting as guarantors for the regime and Turkiye representing the opposition.

Astana provided a platform for these three nations to collaborate on security objectives in Syria, despite their support for opposing factions. However, throughout much of this process, Turkiye found itself in a relatively weaker position, particularly in light of what was perceived as al-Assad’s effective victory in the conflict.

This dynamic has shifted, as Turkiye’s enduring backing of the former opposition now positions it as a significant player in relation to Iran and Russia, allowing it to exert influence over Damascus.

Omer Ozkizilcik, director of Turkish Studies at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies in Istanbul, noted that this new reality necessitates adaptation from all parties involved.

“Iran, while clearly at a disadvantage, will need to recalibrate its approach and forge some type of relationship with Syria’s new government,” Ozkizilcik stated, highlighting the extensive freedom granted to Iran by the Assad regime to operate within Syrian borders.

Meanwhile, Russia, while aiming to maintain its military presence in Syria, is also diversifying its strategy by engaging more with Libya, where it has established a close relationship with the eastern government in Benghazi, evidenced by multiple flights of Russian cargo planes to its al-Khadim base.

Conversely, Iran appears to be consolidating its position in Iraq, reportedly urging its allies there to cease rocket and drone attacks on Israel, which may have provoked US-Israeli strikes against their positions.

In this context, Iran is likely to strengthen its influence in Iraq, which Montazeri describes as “the last pillars of Iran’s axis of resistance.”

Iraq currently plays a crucial role as a financial asset and a defensive shield for Tehran, which depends on the nation for economic assistance in light of ongoing sanctions.

Seyed Emamian, co-founder of the Governance and Policy think tank in Tehran, noted that Iran has a track record of adjusting to evolving geopolitical circumstances and is likely to endure any shifts while preserving its ties with Russia.

Regardless of the agreements that may arise between Russia and the US after Trump’s inauguration, Iran’s leadership does not anticipate a significant change in Putin’s strategic approach towards Iran.

“Putin is acutely aware of the anti-Russian sentiments prevalent within the US and European institutions,” Emamian stated.

“Over the past three years, Russia has confronted what it views as a fundamental threat from the West … it appears improbable that Putin would jeopardize his long-standing alliances, particularly with those who have demonstrated their loyalty during critical times, such as in Syria and Crimea,” Emamian further remarked.

Ukraine has reported that it targeted oil depots located in the Kaluga and Tula regions of Russia

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Firefighters work at a site of a building damaged during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv region, Ukraine.

Ukraine reported on Saturday that it had conducted attacks on oil depots located in western Russia, marking a continuation of its air campaign targeting strategic sites within Russian territory. The General Staff of Kyiv announced that its forces had targeted storage facilities during the night in the Kaluga and Tula regions, with damage assessments still ongoing. These depots were identified as contributing to Moscow’s military operations in Ukraine.

Vladislav Shapsha, the regional governor of Kaluga, mentioned on Telegram that a fire erupted following an attack on an industrial site in the city of Lyudinovo. He also noted that seven drones had been intercepted, with one landing in a “non-residential area.” Meanwhile, Dmitry Milyaev, the governor of Tula, reported on Telegram that a fuel and lubricant tank ignited at a facility in the region due to a Ukrainian drone strike.

Ukrainian forces have intensified their operations within Russia, focusing on oil depots and military production sites, as they face ongoing Russian advances on the eastern front. In response, Russia has continued its air strikes on Ukrainian cities, resulting in four fatalities in a missile attack on central Kyiv on Saturday.

As both sides prepare for the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Monday, who has expressed intentions to pursue a rapid resolution to the conflict, they are actively seeking to strengthen their positions in the nearly three-year-long invasion of Ukraine.

Philippines urges ASEAN and China to address complex issues regarding the South China Sea code

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The ASEAN regional bloc and China need to make progress on the long-standing code of conduct for the South China Sea by addressing critical “milestone issues,” such as its scope and the potential for it to be legally binding, according to the Philippines‘ foreign minister on Saturday.

The South China Sea continues to be a point of contention between China and its neighboring countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia. Relations between Beijing and Manila, a U.S. ally, have deteriorated significantly, with frequent confrontations raising concerns about the possibility of conflict.

In 2002, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China committed to developing a code of conduct, but it took 15 years to initiate discussions, and progress has been sluggish. In an interview prior to a meeting with his ASEAN counterparts on the Malaysian island of Langkawi, Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo stated that while discussions on the code are progressing, it is crucial to begin addressing the more complex and significant issues.

“It is essential that we focus on topics that have not been thoroughly discussed or negotiated,” Manalo remarked to Reuters. These topics include the code’s scope, its legal binding status, and its implications for third-party nations. He emphasized the goal of creating a code that is both effective and substantive. “We must start tackling these critical issues,” Manalo concluded. “This could be the best approach to advance the negotiations.”

Beijing asserts its sovereignty over a significant portion of the South China Sea, a claim it supports with a fleet of coast guard and fishing militia. Some neighboring countries have accused these forces of aggressive actions that disrupt fishing and energy operations within their exclusive economic zones. China maintains that its activities are lawful within its territory and rejects the 2016 arbitration ruling that deemed its claims to be unfounded under international law.

U.S. INTERESTS REMAIN STRONG

Manalo noted that as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to assume office, there are no indications that the United States will reconsider its involvement in Southeast Asia. “We have not observed any signs of a reduction or significant change,” he stated. “We must wait for the new administration to take charge. However, based on current observations, U.S. interests remain intact.”

He also highlighted that the ongoing civil conflict in military-led Myanmar poses a significant challenge for ASEAN, which has excluded the military leaders from meetings due to their failure to implement the organization’s peace plan. The junta intends to conduct elections this year, but many opponents are either barred from participating or have chosen not to run.

Manalo expressed that it is too early to determine whether ASEAN will set preconditions for recognizing the elections, which he believes should involve broad participation from the populace. “If elections occur without being perceived as inclusive and transparent, it would be challenging for them to gain legitimacy,” he remarked.

Trump claims credit for the Gaza ceasefire; will he succeed in its implementation?

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Protesters outside Israeli Defence Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv call on President-elect Donald Trump to end the war in Gaza.

Donald Trump successfully brokered a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, but the challenges ahead for the President-elect will be unprecedented, as he must enforce this agreement in a region eager to reignite hostilities and face a resolute Hamas.

Analysts suggest that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s recent acceptance of the ceasefire is partly motivated by his desire to establish a positive relationship with Trump, who enjoys significant popularity in Israel.

Trump has indicated a willingness to support Netanyahu on issues such as the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and arms sales. He has appointed Mike Huckabee, a staunch advocate for West Bank annexation who has famously stated that “there is no such thing as a settlement,” as his ambassador to Israel.

During a Senate hearing this week, Marco Rubio, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, hinted that the new administration might lift sanctions imposed by the Biden administration last year on Israeli settlers and challenge the International Criminal Court regarding its genocide case against Israel.

William Usher, a former senior Middle East analyst at the CIA, noted in an interview, “I believe one of the reasons Netanyahu agreed to the deal was Trump’s desire for Israel to accept it. It’s likely that Netanyahu is looking for some last-minute concessions from Trump, such as approval for continued settlement expansion.”

The initial stage of the ceasefire is clear-cut and generally well-received in Israel, meaning it will not necessitate significant encouragement from Trump. This phase stipulates that Hamas must release 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for Israel liberating approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.

Trump will take advantage of the compelling visuals of hostages being freed coinciding with his inauguration on January 20. The comparison to Ronald Reagan’s inauguration in 1981, when Iran released embassy hostages, will resonate with the American public.

However, the initial goodwill is expected to diminish after six weeks, as Hamas and Israel will enter discussions for the second phase of the ceasefire.

The negotiations for the second phase are a far more delicate and contentious issue in Israel, as they involve the release of the remaining 65 hostages, including male Israeli soldiers, a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the establishment of a permanent ceasefire.

Hamas and Arab intermediaries are advocating for the release of Marwan Barghouti, a well-known Palestinian leader, during this phase, a demand that Israel strongly opposed during the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner swap.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is already facing the loss of one coalition member due to his agreement to the ceasefire, and more may follow if he adheres to the conditions that call for a definitive conclusion to the conflict.

Israeli media has reported that to secure the backing of far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Netanyahu has committed to maintaining military operations in Gaza.

If Trump aims to maintain stability in the Gaza Strip during his presidency while focusing on his “America First” domestic agenda, alongside resolving the conflict in Ukraine and addressing challenges posed by China, he may face challenges with Netanyahu.

Trump has already expressed frustration over the delays in the ceasefire approval from Israel’s cabinet, suggesting that Hamas reneged on certain aspects of the agreement.

“We shook hands, and we signed certain documents, but it better be done,” Trump stated in a podcast on Thursday. He has taken a proactive role in the ceasefire negotiations, announcing it as “EPIC” ahead of both Arab mediators and the Biden administration.

On Friday, Israel’s security cabinet ratified the agreement.

Arab mediators and regional officials are now questioning how Trump will uphold the ceasefire he has claimed responsibility for. While he has various incentives and pressures at his disposal, each faces limitations due to domestic and international policy considerations.

“Trump will regret owning this deal. It will either fail or succeed under his leadership, and it cannot rely solely on incentives,” remarked Aron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for both Republican and Democratic administrations, in an interview.

Trump 2.0

Trump’s return to the White House has already raised expectations in Israel.

A current US intelligence official said that individuals within the security establishment close to Netanyahu are considering the annexation of the Jordan Valley in the occupied West Bank, citing “security concerns.” This move could be strategically aligned with Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the valley.

The Jordan Valley borders the Jordan River, which acts as a boundary between the occupied West Bank and Jordan. This area is known for its fertility and potential for development.

Approximately 90 percent of the valley falls under Area C, indicating it is fully controlled by Israeli security forces, in contrast to Area A, where the Palestinian Authority is responsible for policing and administration.

This situation presents a challenge for Trump. While he may attempt to maintain Israel’s position in the ceasefire, he has already addressed the more straightforward issues during his previous term.

The United States acknowledged Israel’s annexation of the occupied Golan Heights and relocated its embassy to Jerusalem.

“This is not the same as Trump 1.0, where he took unilateral actions that had little effect on broader Middle Eastern policies. Those were isolated measures. Trump 2.0 is significantly more complex, as he will face pressure regarding the annexation of the West Bank and support for a potential Iranian nuclear strike,” Miller stated.

Additionally, Trump has shared videos on social media featuring economist Jeffrey Sachs, who criticized Netanyahu as a “deep, dark son of a bitch” for involving the US in “endless wars.”

Transition officials informed that Trump is preparing to intensify sanctions enforcement against Iran, and his usual nominees have adopted a tough stance on the Islamic Republic.

Nevertheless, Trump’s closest advisors have indicated a willingness to negotiate a deal.

Reports suggest that Elon Musk met with Iran’s ambassador to the UN.

Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, mentioned that they aim to address tensions surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program through diplomatic means.

Trump’s Retaliation?

Trump has already removed the Gaza ceasefire from his agenda.

If maintaining Netanyahu’s involvement in the agreement requires the annexation of the occupied West Bank, it could jeopardize his ambition to further the Abraham Accords and secure a Nobel Peace Prize.

“We will persist in promoting PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH across the region, leveraging the momentum from this ceasefire to broaden the Historic Abraham Accords,” Trump stated on Wednesday, referencing the 2020 normalization agreements between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.

The Biden administration attempted, but ultimately failed, to expand the Abraham Accords by including Saudi Arabia. The attack by Hamas on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, complicated these efforts. Riyadh has indicated that it requires tangible steps toward establishing a Palestinian state as a prerequisite for normalization.

Should Israel proceed with the annexation of significant portions of the occupied West Bank, it would complicate Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s commitment. He must consider whether his citizens will accept normalization with a nation he has publicly accused of “genocide.”

Trump’s leverage to ensure Netanyahu’s compliance in the agreement is the same tactic Biden opted not to employ during 15 months of conflict: the suspension of arms transfers.

Analysts suggest that, given Trump’s backing from evangelical Christians and pro-Israel lobbying groups, such a scenario is improbable.

Trump publicly clashed with Netanyahu following the latter’s acknowledgment of Biden’s election win, expressing his discontent by stating, “Fuck him (Netanyahu)” in response to the congratulations extended to his rival.

Currently, Netanyahu must navigate his position as Israel’s prime minister after agreeing to a ceasefire. Far-right minister Ben Gvir has indicated he will resign once the agreement is ratified, while Smotrich has threatened to step down if hostilities do not resume after the initial phase. Should these threats materialize, Netanyahu could be left with a minority government or be compelled to call for new elections.

The ultimate irony for Trump lies in the fact that the agreement he pressured Netanyahu into accepting now jeopardizes his own political future.

Delegation from Taiwan is set to extend its warmest congratulations at Trump’s inauguration

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The leader of Taiwan‘s delegation attending Donald Trump‘s inauguration as U.S. president next week stated on Saturday that he aims to convey the island’s “highest blessings” to the United States. Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory, received significant backing from the previous Trump administration, including the regularization of arms sales that have persisted under President Joe Biden. However, Trump’s campaign remarks about Taiwan needing to pay for its defense caused some concern in Taipei.

Han Kuo-yu, the speaker of Taiwan’s parliament and a prominent member of the opposition Kuomintang party who ran for president in 2020, expressed at Taoyuan airport before departing for Washington that many foreign leaders were also en route despite the forecast of heavy snowfall. “All members of our delegation are bringing this enthusiasm to the United States to represent our 23 million citizens, and we extend our highest blessings to the U.S. presidential team and the American people,” he stated.

Han is joined by a bipartisan group of seven other lawmakers. The Chinese delegation is headed by Vice President Han Zheng, and President Xi Jinping spoke with Trump on Friday, addressing various issues, including Taiwan. Han’s party typically advocates for strong relations and dialogue with China, while denying any pro-Beijing stance. The United States, like most nations, does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan but is legally obligated to provide the island with defensive support.

In recent years, China has intensified its military pressure on Taiwan and has refused to engage with President Lai Ching-te, labeling him a “separatist.” Lai, who disputes China’s claims of sovereignty, has faced rejection of his overtures for dialogue. During a meeting late on Friday with Mike Pence, Trump’s vice president during his first term, Lai emphasized that in light of China’s threats and its growing ties with nations like Russia, democracies must collaborate closely.

Lai expressed to Pence that a strengthened partnership between Taiwan and the United States will enhance their collective ability to uphold global peace and stability.