Ukrainian forces have initiated a new unexpected offensive within Russian territory, broadening their foothold in the Kursk region towards the north and east, as Kyiv’s counteroffensive marks its five-month milestone this week.
Geolocated videos revealed Ukrainian troops advancing from their base in Sudzha towards Berdin, seizing fields and entering the settlement on Sunday.
By Monday, they had also taken control of the settlements of Russkoye Porechnoye and Novosotnitsky, all situated along the primary route connecting Sudzha to the regional capital, Kursk.
Russian military bloggers reported that Ukrainian forces maintained control over the settlements of Martynovka, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Mikhaylovka.
According to these bloggers, Ukrainian forces executed their advance in three waves, employing company-sized assaults supported by armored vehicles.
One factor contributing to their success appeared to be the proficient use of electronic warfare.
“Our drones are currently ineffective against it, as enemy electronic warfare has effectively grounded them,” noted one reporter.
Additionally, Ukrainian forces reportedly utilized High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to impede Russian reinforcements.
“As observed in August, the enemy is actively concealing their offensive maneuvers with HIMARS strikes,” a Russian reporter stated. “They are attempting to eliminate our viable reserves, artillery, and drone operators.”
Explosions were reported at an aviation technical base located in Kursk, approximately 70 kilometers (40 miles) from areas controlled by Ukraine. The Kursk military operations headquarters asserted that they had intercepted multiple Ukrainian missiles, implying that some may have successfully penetrated their defenses.
The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank based in Washington, noted that reports indicate Ukrainian forces are utilizing long-range artillery to target Russian rear positions and electronic warfare to disrupt Russian drones, thereby enhancing their mechanized operations in Kursk through more effective combined arms strategies.
In addition to missiles, Ukraine has deployed domestically produced long-range drones to strike Russian energy infrastructure. A Ukrainian drone recently targeted a gas condensate transshipment terminal in the port of Ust-Luga, near Leningrad, resulting in a significant fire.
Ukrainian officials have cited several motivations for their counteroffensive, primarily the presence of tens of thousands of Russian troops who would otherwise be engaged in assaults on Ukrainian territory.
“The Russians have stationed their elite units in the Kursk region, with North Korean soldiers also participating. Crucially, the occupiers are unable to reallocate all of these forces to other fronts, particularly in Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, or Zaporizhia,” stated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during an evening address on Monday.
“Since the commencement of operations in Kursk, the enemy has suffered over 38,000 casualties in this region alone, including around 15,000 irrecoverable losses,” he added.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces released a report detailing the Russian military equipment destroyed in Kursk, which includes 104 tanks, 575 armored combat vehicles, over 1,000 additional vehicles, and 330 artillery systems.
Additionally, Ukraine reported the capture of 860 Russian soldiers in Kursk, intending to use them for the exchange of its own prisoners of war.
Is Russia depleting its tank supply?
While Russia has managed to replenish its personnel, its capacity to replace military equipment remains uncertain.
According to estimates from Ukraine’s defense ministry, in 2024, Ukrainian forces have destroyed 3,689 Russian tanks, 8,956 armored combat vehicles, and more than 13,000 artillery systems. The Ukrainian Navy also reported sinking five ships and 458 smaller vessels.
Russia has been retrieving Soviet-era armor from storage and refurbishing it for active duty, but the sustainability of this practice is questionable.
One assessment of Russian military hardware indicated that approximately 48 percent of its tanks and a similar percentage of armored fighting vehicles remain operational; however, satellite imagery has revealed that a significant number of these are in such poor condition that they are not usable.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies, based in London, estimated a year ago that Russia had a supply of armor sufficient for two to three years.
Recent Russian offensives against Ukrainian positions over the past week have raised concerns regarding the state of Russian armor.
Russian military efforts have concentrated heavily on the twin towns of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk, with 26 attacks reported on Friday along a front that extends 45 kilometers (30 miles) to the south.
“Intense fighting persists along the entire front line, with the most heated activity occurring near Pokrovsk,” President Zelenskyy stated in his address on Saturday evening.
On Tuesday, there were 41 combat engagements in this region, out of a total of 176 across the entire front.
At its nearest point, Russian forces were positioned just 1.5 kilometers (1 mile) from Pokrovsk, where approximately 7,300 civilians were still residing and working.
“The intensity of the conflict has escalated. We are now facing a distinct motorized rifle brigade and a motorized rifle regiment from the Russian Federation,” reported Serhiy Okishev, a sergeant with the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade engaged in the Pokrovsk area, during a telethon.
He noted, however, that Russian troops appeared to be deploying fewer armored vehicles, opting instead for buggies, golf carts, and civilian vehicles. It remains uncertain whether this shift is due to a shortage of armored assets or a strategy for enhanced maneuverability.
A spokesperson for Ukrainian forces in Kurakhove echoed this sentiment on Friday, stating that “the Russians have shifted to infantry-only assaults in recent weeks, and when armored vehicles are utilized, they are primarily for fire support and do not participate in the assaults themselves.”
The Russians maintain a significant distance from their armored vehicles due to their heightened concerns regarding our anti-tank missile systems, he stated.
Ukraine is making substantial investments in long-range and unmanned systems
Over the past year, Ukraine has significantly bolstered its defense industry, particularly focusing on various types of unmanned systems and developing innovative tactics.
On Monday, Ukraine’s military intelligence informed the news outlet TSN that its Magura V sea drone successfully shot down two Russian Mi8 helicopters over the Black Sea on December 31.
This incident occurred near Cape Tarkhankut, approximately 15 kilometers (10 miles) from Sevastopol.
Unit 13 of military intelligence, which operates the Magura surface drone, set a trap for Russian aircraft tasked with detecting and neutralizing naval drones. An anonymous source revealed, “In this operation, our objective was not to evade aviation as usual; we specifically aimed to target air threats.”
Commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii announced that the armed forces are “increasing the number of brigades with an enhanced unmanned component” and are establishing a dedicated brigade for unmanned systems.
In December alone, operators from the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck over 54,000 enemy targets, with nearly half—49 percent—attributed to kamikaze drones, he shared on social media.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on Friday that Ukraine aims to produce approximately 3,000 cruise missiles and drone missiles this year, along with a minimum of 30,000 long-range drones.
Under the ‘Weapons of Victory’ initiative, Shmyhal indicated that the government would establish long-term contracts with manufacturers lasting between three to five years, with a particular focus on enhancing long-range capabilities and missile development.
These drone and missile initiatives are part of a broader strategy to elevate Ukraine’s defense industrial capacity to around $30 billion, a significant increase from the projected $7 billion in 2024.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has expressed his intention to conclude the war this year, which raises the possibility of a ceasefire along existing front lines.
When asked about the potential for hosting a multinational force of European peacekeepers in Ukraine, President Zelenskyy acknowledged France’s proposal but emphasized that such an arrangement should be linked to Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
“It should certainly align with our path to NATO. This does not imply that the presence of European forces would preclude a future within NATO,” Zelenskyy stated. “I noted that Trump is supportive of this concept.”
