A U.S. Army veteran recently demonstrated the ongoing influence of the Islamic State by flying its black flag on a truck that he drove into a crowd celebrating New Year’s in New Orleans. This incident underscores the group’s persistent ability to incite violence, even after enduring significant setbacks due to a U.S.-led military coalition.

During its peak from 2014 to 2017, the Islamic State established a “caliphate” that inflicted death and torture across extensive regions of Iraq and Syria, while also expanding its reach through affiliates in the Middle East.

The group’s former leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was killed by U.S. special forces in 2019 in northwestern Syria, emerged from relative obscurity to head the extremist organization and proclaimed himself the “caliph” for all Muslims. The caliphate ultimately fell in 2017 in Iraq, where it had a stronghold just a short drive from Baghdad, and in Syria in 2019, following a prolonged military offensive by the coalition.

In response to its territorial losses, the Islamic State has dispersed into independent cells, with its leadership operating in secrecy, making it difficult to assess its total strength. The United Nations estimates that around 10,000 members remain in its core areas.

The U.S.-led coalition, which includes approximately 4,000 American troops in Syria and Iraq, has continued to target the militants through airstrikes and ground operations, resulting in the deaths and captures of numerous fighters and leaders. Despite these efforts, the Islamic State has executed significant operations and continues to inspire isolated attacks, such as the tragic incident in New Orleans that resulted in 14 fatalities.

The assaults include a March 2024 attack by gunmen on a Russian music venue that resulted in the deaths of at least 143 individuals, as well as two bombings during an official ceremony in Kerman, Iran, in January 2024, which claimed nearly 100 lives.

Despite ongoing counterterrorism efforts, ISIS has managed to regroup, enhance its media operations, and resume external plotting, as cautioned by Brett Holmgren, Acting U.S. Director for the National Counterterrorism Center, in October.

Geopolitical dynamics have also favored the Islamic State. The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has sparked significant outrage, which jihadist groups exploit for recruitment purposes. Additionally, the precarious situation of Syrian Kurds detaining thousands of ISIS prisoners may provide the group with opportunities to regain strength.

While Islamic State has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack in New Orleans or celebrated it on its social media platforms, U.S. law enforcement agencies have noted that some of its supporters have done so. A senior U.S. defense official, who requested anonymity, expressed increasing concern regarding ISIS’s recruitment activities and resurgence in Syria, particularly following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December, which could create a power vacuum for the militant group.

Moments of promise

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has cautioned that ISIS may attempt to leverage this period of instability to rebuild its capabilities in Syria, emphasizing the United States’ commitment to preventing such developments. “History demonstrates how swiftly moments of promise can devolve into conflict and violence,” he remarked.

In July, a U.N. team monitoring ISIS activities reported to the U.N. Security Council about the “risk of resurgence” of the group in the Middle East and raised alarms regarding the potential for its Afghanistan-based affiliate, ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), to conduct attacks beyond its borders. European governments have identified ISIS-K as “the greatest external terrorist threat to Europe.”

Jim Jeffrey, the former U.S. ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, as well as the Special Envoy to the Global Coalition Against the Islamic State, noted that the organization has consistently aimed to inspire lone wolf attacks similar to the one that occurred in New Orleans. Nevertheless, he emphasized that the primary concern remains the efforts of ISIS-K to execute large-scale attacks resulting in mass casualties, akin to those witnessed in Moscow, Iran, and across Europe in 2015 and 2016.

Additionally, ISIS has maintained its focus on operations in Africa. Recently, the group reported that 12 militants, utilizing vehicles rigged with explosives, assaulted a military base in Puntland, Somalia, resulting in the deaths of approximately 22 soldiers and injuring many others.

They referred to this incident as “the blow of the year,” describing it as a complex attack unprecedented in its nature. Security experts indicate that the Islamic State’s presence in Somalia has strengthened due to an influx of foreign fighters and increased revenue from extorting local businesses, effectively establishing the region as the group’s “nerve center” in Africa.

path to radicalization

In a related development, the FBI reported that Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old veteran from Texas who previously served in Afghanistan, acted independently in the New Orleans incident. Jabbar reportedly created recordings in which he denounced music, drugs, and alcohol, reflecting the ideological tenets commonly associated with the Islamic State.

Investigators are examining Jabbar’s “path to radicalization,” puzzled by his transformation from a military veteran, real estate agent, and former employee of the prominent tax and consulting firm Deloitte into an individual who was “100 percent inspired by ISIS,” which stands for the Islamic State.

In recent months, U.S. intelligence and homeland security officials have alerted local law enforcement about the risks posed by foreign extremist groups like ISIS, particularly concerning potential vehicle-ramming attacks at large public events, as indicated in intelligence bulletins reviewed by Reuters.

In a public statement made in June, U.S. Central Command noted that the Islamic State is attempting to “reconstitute” after several years of diminished capabilities. CENTCOM’s assessment is informed by Islamic State’s claims of conducting 153 attacks in Iraq and Syria during the first half of 2024, a frequency that suggests the group is “on pace to more than double the number of attacks” reported the previous year.

H.A. Hellyer, a Middle East studies expert and senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, expressed skepticism about the Islamic State regaining significant territory. He indicated that while ISIS and other non-state actors remain a threat, it is primarily due to their capacity to execute “random acts of violence” rather than their control over land. “While there may be limited opportunities for territorial control in certain regions of Africa for a time,” Hellyer stated, “I do not foresee this as a precursor to a substantial resurgence.”