Pakistan Surpasses Indian Navy in AIP-Submarine Technology

January 17, 2025

Hangor-class Submarines are equipped with Babur-lll (Hatf-VII) Nuclear Cruise Missiles, capable of showcasing Pakistan's Second Strike Capability in worst case Scenarios.

The Indian Navy has deployed the sixth and final submarine of the P-75 Scorpene Project, alongside a stealth frigate and a guided missile destroyer. While this marks a significant achievement, the Indian Navy’s submarine fleet still lacks the Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) technology. In contrast, the Chinese-manufactured Hangor class submarine is on track to be integrated into the Pakistan Navy as planned.

Currently, the Indian Navy does not possess any AIP-equipped submarines, whereas the Pakistan Navy operates three French Agosta-90B submarines (PNS Khalid, Saad, and Hamza) that utilize AIP technology.

According to the latest developments, the Hangor submarines are anticipated to be commissioned into the Pakistan Navy by the late 2020s to early 2030s. Once operational, these submarines will enhance the Pakistan Navy’s capabilities, bringing its total of AIP-equipped vessels to 11.

Despite financial constraints, Pakistan is striving to keep pace with the Indian Navy’s capabilities, ship for ship. As the Indian Navy’s sole operational port in the region is being developed into the largest naval base east of the Suez Canal, Pakistan is also intensifying its efforts to establish one of Asia’s largest naval fleets. This includes expanding its surface fleet to 50 warships and a subsurface fleet of 11 submarines. Among the 50 surface vessels, 20 are projected to be significant assets such as frigates and corvettes.

Admiral Naveed Ashraf, the Chief of the Naval Staff of the Pakistan Navy, informed Chinese state media that the development of four submarines is on track according to the established schedule.

He emphasized that the Hangor-class submarines will greatly bolster Pakistan’s naval capabilities through enhanced stealth, maneuverability, and firepower, enabling the Navy to conduct a diverse array of operations effectively.

“The project is advancing as planned. We anticipate that these submarines will soon be integrated into the Pakistan Navy fleet,” Ashraf stated.

In December 2021, the steel cutting ceremony for the fifth Hangor-class conventional submarine took place, marking the first such submarine to be constructed in Pakistan. This initiative will provide Pakistan with critical experience in the production of advanced modern submarines.

The Hangor submarines are variants of the S-26, which are based on the Chinese Yuan class but modified for export purposes. Several design alterations have been implemented compared to the standard S-26 model.

The Hangor class submarine has a larger displacement of 2,800 tons, compared to the S-26’s 2,550 tons, although it features a slightly shorter hull (76 m versus the S-26’s 77.7 m). Both classes share the same payload capacity of six torpedo tubes and utilize a Stirling-based Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) system.

Initially, the S-26 submarines were equipped with the German MTU 12V 396 SE84 diesel engine; however, the German government reportedly restricted export licenses for this engine. Consequently, the Pakistan Navy opted for the Chinese CHD-620 diesel engine, which resulted in delays to the program.

These submarines feature cutting-edge sensors and contemporary weaponry, which marginally shifts the tactical advantage towards Pakistan. The diesel attack submarines are in line with the Pakistan Navy’s strategy of offensive sea denial, emphasizing the use of submarines and missile-equipped maritime patrol aircraft in naval engagements.

AIP-equipped conventional diesel-electric submarines (SSK) represent a middle ground between nuclear-powered vessels and non-AIP SSKs. This technology enables an SSK to remain submerged for 10 to 14 days without surfacing to recharge its batteries, thereby minimizing the risk of detection. In contrast, other SSKs typically can operate underwater for about 48 hours. The fuel-cell-based AIP system is distinctive as it produces its hydrogen supply onboard.

The AIP significantly extends a submarine’s underwater endurance between battery charges by three to four times, thereby decreasing its chances of being detected.

Slow Advancement of Indian Submarine Fleets Towards AIP

With the addition of INS Vaghsheer, the Indian submarine fleet now comprises 17 conventional submarines. The Scorpene Class submarines are set to be upgraded with a domestically developed AIP system during the major refit of the first submarine in this class, INS Kalvari.

This retrofitting process will involve splitting the operational submarine in half to incorporate a new AIP section, which will increase both its length and weight. The French shipbuilder Naval Group will provide support for this intricate operation.

The technology will undergo additional testing before being integrated into the remaining Scorpene-class submarines. Experts have indicated that incorporating new technology into a weapons platform may hinder operational readiness, as repairs are expected to take a minimum of one year.

In addition to the six newly constructed submarines, the others are over 30 years old and nearing their decommissioning timeline. India’s older Shishumar (HDW) class and Sindughosh (Kilo) class submarines are experiencing challenges with spare parts due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The Indian Navy is actively seeking a foreign partner to develop AIP-equipped submarines under Project-75I. Field evaluations have already been conducted on systems proposed by Germany and Spain, but a final decision on the contract has yet to be made.

Given that it took 11 years for the first Scorpene-class submarine to join the Indian Navy after the agreement was signed, the submarines under Project-75I are projected to take at least a decade before they become operational.

Pakistan-China Cooperation

Encouraged by China, Pakistan has recognized the significance of the Western Indian Ocean, leading to an emphasis on naval modernization.

In addition to the Hangor-class submarine, Admiral highlighted the acquisition of four Type 054A/P frigates from China, which have significantly enhanced the country’s combat capabilities.

“The addition of Type 054A/P frigates to the Pakistan Navy has strengthened our combat capabilities and improved operational flexibility, ensuring these vessels will be central to the Pakistan Navy’s fleet in the years ahead.”

The final two frigates were handed over in May 2023. The Type 054A/P represents one of the most advanced multi-role frigates from China, featuring cutting-edge weaponry and sensors, including CM-302 surface-to-surface missiles and LY-80 surface-to-air missiles. Additionally, it is equipped with an Advanced Anti-Submarine Warfare suite and a Combat Management System, allowing vessels of this class to function effectively in multi-threat environments. The Pakistan Navy is the inaugural customer for these frigates.

According to the Chief of the Pakistan Navy, the Type 054A/P vessels are designed to operate in complex threat scenarios and have been seamlessly integrated into the operations of the Pakistan Navy. The F-22P guided missile frigate, constructed in China and renamed PNS Zulfiquar by the Pakistan Navy, executed Operation Himalayan Spirit in the North Arabian Sea in October 2024, resulting in the seizure of 1.3 tons of narcotics.

Japan establishes a mission to NATO amid escalating tensions with Russia and North Korea

Asif Shahid

January 17, 2025

NATO has strengthened its relationships with Japan and three other partners in the Indo-Pacific region: Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea, although these connections do not constitute formal membership in the military alliance.

Japan has officially launched an independent mission to NATO as both Tokyo and the alliance aim to enhance collaboration in response to rising tensions from Russia, China, and North Korea.

Previously, the Japanese embassy in Belgium managed NATO-related affairs.

The new mission is headed by Osamu Izawa, who succeeds Masahiro Mikami, the current ambassador to Belgium.

On Thursday, high-level discussions were held in Tokyo between Japan and NATO to address regional security challenges in East Asia and Europe, as reported by the Foreign Ministry.

In light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the strengthening of ties between Moscow and Beijing, NATO has intensified its partnerships with Japan and the three other Indo-Pacific nations, while still not forming a military alliance.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan has proposed a security framework in Asia similar to NATO, although specifics have not been disclosed.

Nations sharing security interests are increasingly forging closer ties amid intensifying competition between the United States and China.

Beijing has expressed concerns regarding NATO’s expanding relationships with Indo-Pacific partners, fearing that the U.S. may attempt to establish a NATO-like alliance in the region.

UK and France are engaged in confidential discussions regarding the deployment of troops to Ukraine

Asif Shahid

January 17, 2025

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomes French President Emmanuel Macron to the European Political Community summit at Blenheim Palace, UK.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have reportedly discussed the potential deployment of soldiers to Ukraine as a peacekeeping force, according to claims made by the Telegraph, which cites unnamed sources.

The idea was initially brought up by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky last week, who indicated he would address the matter with Starmer during his visit to Kiev. However, the Telegraph reports that Starmer has not yet fully committed to the proposal.

A source from Whitehall commented on Wednesday evening, stating, “There are challenges regarding what we could support, what we would want to support, and the broader issue of the potential threats to those troops and whether their presence could escalate tensions.”

Representatives from both 10 Downing Street and the Elysee Palace did not refute the claim that Starmer and Macron discussed the possibility of peacekeepers during their meeting at the Chequers estate in the UK last week, but they did not provide any specifics about the discussion.

During his visit to Kiev on Thursday, Starmer pledged to establish a “100-year partnership” agreement with Ukraine.

Additionally, there are speculations that US President-elect Donald Trump may propose the deployment of Western troops as peacekeepers along the demilitarized zone between Russia and Ukraine, which would align with the current conflict line. Reports suggest that these would be “European” soldiers not operating under NATO command, with no involvement from US forces, although these claims remain unverified.

Macron is said to have discussed the concept of “European” peacekeepers with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk last month; however, Warsaw indicated that it had no plans to pursue such initiatives.

Earlier this week, Zelensky shared on social media that he had engaged in talks with “key allies” regarding the “practical steps” necessary for advancing the peacekeeper proposal.

A British official commented to the Telegraph, “We are getting slightly ahead of ourselves. We are not there yet.”

The idea of deploying troops in Ukraine has received support from former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, former Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt, and ex-defense ministers Grant Shapps and Gavin Williamson.

Since the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022, the UK has provided £12.8 billion ($16 billion) in military and civilian assistance to Kiev and has reportedly trained 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers on British territory.

Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, recently stated that the UK’s ongoing support for Kiev indicates that London “clearly does not seek to resolve the conflict,” accusing the UK of “doing everything possible to make it drag on, thus prolonging the suffering of the Ukrainian people.”

Norwegian F-35s were dispatched following the approach of Russian aircraft near Polish airspace

Asif Shahid

January 17, 2025

A Norwegian F-35 fighter plane sits in a hangar in Keflavik, Iceland.

Norwegian F-35s, stationed in Poland, were deployed on Wednesday to address a significant influx of Russian aircraft approaching Polish airspace, as reported by NATO’s air command on Thursday. This marked the inaugural deployment of Norway’s F-35s in Polish airspace since their arrival last December.

Macron travels to Lebanon to advocate for sovereignty and reforms, fueled by renewed optimism

Asif Shahid

January 17, 2025

French President Emmanuel Macron is set to visit Lebanon on Friday for the first time since 2020, aiming to expedite the establishment of a government capable of swiftly implementing reforms and facilitating reconstruction efforts.

Following a truce mediated by France and the United States in November between Israel and Hezbollah, Paris has been instrumental in addressing Lebanon’s political stalemate, collaborating with American and Saudi partners, which has resulted in the election of a new president and prime minister.

As a former French protectorate, Lebanon has maintained strong historical connections with France, although the relationship has faced challenges in recent years. Macron invested significant political effort in 2020 to persuade Lebanese leaders to support political and financial reforms in the aftermath of the Beirut port explosion, which claimed over 200 lives and devastated numerous neighborhoods.

“Over the past three months, we have assisted Lebanon in transitioning from escalation to recovery, opening a new chapter of hope,” stated France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, who will accompany Macron during the visit, while addressing parliament on French policy in the Middle East.

“With popular support, a broad internal consensus, and international backing, the new Lebanese government can take decisive action to restore state sovereignty and rebuild the nation.” A source from the French presidency informed reporters prior to the trip that the goal is to emphasize the significance of Lebanon’s sovereignty, support structural economic reforms to regain international trust, and ensure the formation of a unified government capable of driving change.

Macron also engaged in discussions with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman prior to his visit. For several months, Paris has been encouraging Riyadh to become more involved in Lebanon, a process that has gained momentum with the election of Joseph Aoun as president and Nawaf Salam as prime minister.

French officials expressed optimism that Saudi Arabia would offer financial support and resources to enhance the capabilities of the Lebanese Armed Forces. The military aims to strengthen its presence throughout the country and assert control over southern Lebanon as part of a 60-day truce plan, which is expected to facilitate the withdrawal of Israeli troops by the end of January.

“A Lebanese diplomat remarked that Macron is attempting to regain traction on an issue he has closely monitored, yet one that has proven quite complex for him.”

Europe’s Recruitment Dilemma: NATO Faces Troop Shortages

Asif Shahid

January 17, 2025

Throughout much of its existence, NATO has faced a significant challenge: a shortage of troops.

This concern was particularly pronounced during the Cold War, as NATO observed the Warsaw Pact’s 6 million troops stationed in East Germany, compared to their own 5 million, along with a greater number of divisions, tanks, combat aircraft, and submarines.

Since that time, the situation has only deteriorated. In the 1990s and 2000s, NATO member states reduced their troop numbers and adapted their military equipment for two decades of operations in the Middle East. By 2014, when Russia deployed forces to the Crimean Peninsula, the U.S. presence in Europe had dwindled to approximately 30,000 troops. Pentagon officials were compelled to devise strategies to project a force that appeared tenfold larger to deter Russian aggression.

“NATO essentially neglected its military capabilities,” remarked a senior diplomat from a NATO country, who requested anonymity to discuss military strategies. “It was completely inadequate for a major crisis.”

As NATO formulates its new defense strategies to counter a potential Russian offensive from three directions—north, central, and south—it is mobilizing tanks, artillery, and ammunition. However, it is encountering difficulties in securing sufficient troop numbers and is compelled to reevaluate its approach to troop deployment from allied nations.

NATO, primarily under the leadership of the United States, has been relying on all-volunteer forces for the last fifty years. However, in the U.S., all eligible males are required to register with the selective service in case Congress or the President decides to implement a draft.

The recent decline in unemployment rates in the U.S. and Europe has complicated recruitment efforts. Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. employers have consistently added jobs, resulting in an unemployment rate around 4 percent. Similarly, the Netherlands and Germany report low unemployment rates of approximately 3 percent, indicating that those without jobs are either transitioning between positions or entering the job market for the first time. Additionally, there are other contributing factors; in the U.S., a growing number of individuals are failing to meet military recruitment standards due to issues related to fitness, mental health, or prior criminal records, which has led to a diminishing pool of potential recruits.

Experts believe that the primary reason for the decline in recruitment is the absence of a significant national security threat to the U.S. “We’re victims of our own success,” stated Kate Kuzminski, director of the military, veterans, and society program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a think tank based in Washington. “The perception of an existential threat is not as pronounced as it once was, which is positive, but it presents challenges for recruitment efforts.”

The U.S. military fell short of its recruitment goal by over 41,000 individuals last year, resulting in the smallest active-duty force in more than 80 years. Similarly, the British Army has not met its recruitment targets annually since 2010. In Germany, the Bundeswehr saw a reduction of 1,500 personnel last year, despite an extensive recruitment campaign. Even Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, has lowered its conscription age from 27 to 25 to secure enough soldiers to defend against the Russian invasion.

In Russia, the conscription age has been modified, increasing the upper limit from 27 to 30. Additionally, the Kremlin has implemented measures to re-enlist former soldiers, including those who have been out of service for decades. “This means that retired generals, who may have been inactive for 30 years, are being called back into duty,” noted Kuzminski.

Within the U.S. Army, the challenges of attrition and fatigue are particularly pronounced in combat arms units, with a notably high suicide rate among tank crews from 2019 to 2021. Air defense personnel are also experiencing significant stress due to their extensive global responsibilities.

Consequently, both the U.S. and European nations are actively seeking new recruits. Several countries, including Estonia, Finland, Lithuania, and Norway, already implement conscription for varying durations. Latvia is reinstating conscription, while Sweden, which previously conscripted a significant portion of its population, is reviving its mobilization strategy and aims to double its conscript numbers by 2030. Poland is striving to expand its military, aiming for a 250,000-strong active-duty force and an additional 50,000 territorial defenders, all while maintaining a low unemployment rate of around 2 percent.

For many years, European military strategies have been predicated on the belief that conflicts would occur outside their borders, emphasizing the need for technologically advanced and agile forces. Discussions surrounding the potential reinstatement of mandatory military service have largely centered on its perceived benefits as a means of fostering unity, instilling civic responsibility, and enhancing the relationship between the military and the general populace.

Currently, the ongoing and severe territorial conflict between Ukraine and Russia has resulted in significant casualties. While advanced technology plays a crucial role in modern warfare, it cannot compensate for the sheer scale of the conflict, as both nations face challenges in mobilizing sufficient troops. Leaders from frontline European nations—including the prime ministers of Estonia and Sweden, the defense ministers of Denmark and Norway, and Poland’s chief of intelligence—have recently cautioned that NATO may soon be drawn into a conflict with Russia.

During last year’s NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, member states agreed to a new force structure that aims to expand the alliance’s high-readiness forces to 300,000 troops, a substantial increase from the previous 40,000. Achieving this goal is already ambitious, but to enhance NATO’s capacity to respond swiftly to territorial threats and engage in a sustained conflict with Russian forces, member countries will need to significantly bolster their military reserves.

European nations that have eliminated or paused conscription often face challenges in both recruiting and retaining adequate military personnel. A case in point is Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s initiative for a military “Zeitenwende,” or a shift in defense strategy, aims to increase the Bundeswehr to 203,000 service members by 2031. However, despite ongoing recruitment efforts, the size of the German armed forces decreased to approximately 181,500 in 2023, down from 183,050 in 2022.

Similarly, the British Army, which has engaged a private company for recruitment, continues to fall short of its recruitment goals. In candid public statements, U.S. Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro recently encouraged the United Kingdom to reconsider the scale of its military forces. The United States is also experiencing recruitment difficulties across all branches of the military, raising concerns that the reliance on an all-volunteer force is widening the gap between the military and civilian populations.

A significant challenge facing military organizations is the retention of soldiers long enough to maintain a force that is both experienced and combat-ready. France is currently experiencing difficulties in retaining its personnel, with uniformed members now serving an average of one year less than in previous years.

In 2022, the rate of early contract terminations reached 32 percent, while the military’s goal is to keep this figure around 25 percent. The French director of human resources for the Ministry of Armed Forces informed parliament in 2023 that, although some turnover is expected, the scale of this issue is unprecedented. In Poland, the government has introduced a voluntary one-year basic military service to bolster recruitment and enhance its reserve forces.

The aim is to establish NATO’s largest land army, increasing the number of professional soldiers in the Armed Forces to 250,000 by 2030 and eventually to 300,000, including reserves, by 2035. However, critics argue that these ambitions are unrealistic, citing retention issues and a record number of experienced personnel leaving the military. Despite acquiring new tanks for heavy divisions, Poland is facing a shortage of troops to operate them. While the number of recruits in 2022 increased, nearly 9,000 seasoned soldiers exited the armed forces, leading to a significant loss of expertise.

The transition from conscripted to all-volunteer forces has rendered many European militaries vulnerable, as they struggle to meet recruitment goals and lack the necessary manpower to defend against a more aggressive Russia. In response, these nations are exploring various strategies to bolster their diminishing forces, including the potential reintroduction of conscription. They are observing neighboring countries to the north and east, which have either maintained or recently reinstated conscription systems, each with its own distinct characteristics.

Biden asserts that Netanyahu needs to address the ‘legitimate concerns’ of the Palestinian people

Asif Shahid

January 17, 2025

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a dinner with U.S. service members and their families ahead of Thanksgiving at U.S. Coast Guard Sector New York on Staten Island, New York, U.S.

Outgoing Democratic U.S. President Joe Biden stated on Thursday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “must find a way to address the legitimate concerns” of Palestinians to ensure the long-term viability of Israel.

Biden emphasized, “The notion that Israel can maintain its sustainability in the long run without addressing the Palestinian issue… is unrealistic.” In an interview with MSNBC, he noted that he will be transferring power to Republican President-elect Donald Trump on Monday.

He added, “I have consistently reminded my friend, and he is indeed a friend, even though we have not seen eye to eye recently, Bibi Netanyahu, that he needs to find a way to address the legitimate concerns of a significant group of people known as Palestinians, who currently lack a place to live independently.”

Biden has faced backlash from various human rights advocates regarding his military and diplomatic backing of Israel amid its military operations in Gaza, which have resulted in tens of thousands of casualties and allegations of war crimes and genocide, claims that Israel has denied.

While Biden has occasionally criticized Netanyahu, he has continued to express strong support for Israel. On Thursday, Washington indicated that it anticipated a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas to be implemented on Sunday. The recent escalation in the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an attack on Israel, resulting in the deaths of 1,200 individuals and the abduction of approximately 250 hostages, according to Israeli reports.

Israel’s recent military operations in Gaza have resulted in the deaths of more than 46,000 Palestinians, as reported by the local health ministry. This conflict has led to the displacement of nearly the entire population and has triggered a severe hunger crisis.

For many years, the United States has supported a two-state solution aimed at establishing a Palestinian state in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza, existing alongside Israel.

Prime Minister Netanyahu asserts that Israel must maintain security control over all territories west of the Jordan River, which effectively rules out the possibility of a sovereign Palestinian state. The International Court of Justice has declared that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories and the settlements established there are illegal.

Israel delays approval of a ceasefire in Gaza, while the United States indicates that an agreement is progressing

Asif Shahid

January 17, 2025

Palestinians walk among the rubble of houses destroyed in previous Israeli strikes, amid ceasefire negotiations with Israel, in Gaza City.

Israel has postponed the approval of a ceasefire agreement with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which includes the release of hostages in the Gaza Strip. However, the United States has indicated that it still anticipates the agreement will take effect on Sunday as originally scheduled.

In Gaza, Israeli airstrikes continued to be intense, with Palestinian authorities reporting that at least 86 individuals lost their lives on the day following the announcement of the truce.

Amid visible divisions among ministers, Israel delayed the cabinet meetings that were set for Thursday to vote on the agreement, attributing the delay to Hamas. Reports from Israeli media suggest that the vote may take place on Friday or Saturday, with expectations that the accord will ultimately receive approval.

White House spokesperson John Kirby expressed confidence that the agreement remains on track, stating that a ceasefire in the ongoing 15-month conflict is likely to commence “as soon as late this weekend.”

Kirby noted on CNN that there are no indications suggesting the agreement will be derailed at this time. Meanwhile, a group representing families of Israeli hostages in Gaza, including 33 individuals slated for release in the initial six-week phase of the agreement, has urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to expedite the process.

The group emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating, “For the 98 hostages, each night is another night of terrible nightmare. Do not delay their return even for one more night,” in a statement reported by Israeli media late on Thursday.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated earlier on Thursday that a “loose end” in the ongoing negotiations required resolution. A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, indicated that the issue at hand involved the identities of certain prisoners that Hamas sought to have released. Representatives from President Joe Biden’s administration and President-elect Donald Trump’s team were in Doha, collaborating with Egyptian and Qatari mediators to address this matter, according to the official.

Hamas senior official Izzat el-Reshiq affirmed the group’s commitment to the ceasefire agreement.

VOTE EXPECTED FRIDAY OR SATURDAY

In Gaza, the initial joy over the ceasefire quickly turned to grief and anger due to the intensified bombardment that ensued following the ceasefire announcement on Wednesday. Tamer Abu Shaaban’s voice trembled as he stood beside the small body of his young niece, wrapped in a white shroud at a morgue in Gaza City. She had been struck in the back by missile shrapnel while playing in the yard of a school where the family was taking refuge, he recounted. “Is this the truce they are discussing? What did this young girl, this child, do to deserve this?” he lamented.

Israel’s acceptance of the agreement will not be finalized until it receives approval from the security cabinet and the government. Prime Minister Netanyahu delayed the vote, accusing Hamas of introducing last-minute demands. “The Israeli cabinet will not meet until the mediators inform Israel that Hamas has agreed to all aspects of the deal,” stated Netanyahu’s office.

Israeli media sources indicated that the cabinet was anticipated to cast its vote on Friday or Saturday; however, the prime minister’s office refrained from commenting on the schedule. Some political analysts suggested that the commencement of the ceasefire, set for Sunday, might be postponed if Israel does not finalize its approval by Saturday. Hardliners within Netanyahu’s administration, who argue that the conflict has not met its goal of eliminating Hamas and should continue until it does, were still seeking to halt the agreement. Nonetheless, a majority of ministers were expected to support the deal and facilitate its ratification.

In Jerusalem, protests erupted as some Israelis marched through the streets carrying symbolic coffins in opposition to the ceasefire, obstructing roads and clashing with law enforcement. Other demonstrators blocked traffic until they were dispersed by security forces.

The ceasefire agreement was reached on Wednesday following negotiations involving Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. The arrangement includes an initial six-week ceasefire and a gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops. In return for the release of dozens of hostages taken by Hamas, including women, children, the elderly, and the sick, hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel would be freed. This agreement also aims to facilitate a significant increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza, where a large portion of the population has been displaced and is facing hunger, illness, and cold conditions.

Israel initiated its military campaign in Gaza after Hamas militants infiltrated Israeli border communities on October 7, 2023, resulting in the deaths of 1,200 soldiers and civilians and the abduction of over 250 hostages, according to Israeli reports. If the ceasefire is successful, it would bring an end to hostilities that have devastated much of densely populated Gaza, resulting in over 46,000 fatalities and displacing the majority of the enclave’s pre-war population of 2.3 million, as reported by Gaza authorities.

SpaceX’s Starship explodes during a flight test, prompting airlines to reroute operations

Asif Shahid

January 17, 2025

SpaceX's Starship rocket is pictured after launching as seen from South Padre Island near Brownsville, Texas, U.S.

A SpaceX Starship rocket disintegrated in space just minutes after its launch from Texas on Thursday, prompting airlines to reroute flights over the Gulf of Mexico to steer clear of falling debris and hindering Elon Musk‘s flagship rocket initiative.

SpaceX mission control lost contact with the newly enhanced Starship, which was carrying its inaugural test payload of mock satellites and no crew, eight minutes post-launch from its South Texas facilities at 5:38 p.m. EST (2238 GMT).

Footage captured by Reuters displayed bright orange lights streaking across the sky above Port-au-Prince, Haiti, leaving behind trails of smoke. “We did lose all communications with the ship, which indicates an anomaly with the upper stage,” stated SpaceX Communications Manager Dan Huot, who later confirmed the loss of the spacecraft.

The previous failure of a Starship upper stage occurred in March of last year during its reentry into Earth’s atmosphere over the Indian Ocean, but such incidents have rarely disrupted air traffic on a large scale.

Numerous commercial flights were rerouted or adjusted their paths to avoid potential debris, as reported by flight tracking service FlightRadar24. Additionally, departures from Miami and Fort Lauderdale airports in Florida experienced delays of approximately 45 minutes. The Federal Aviation Administration, responsible for overseeing private launch operations, indicated that it had temporarily slowed and redirected aircraft in the vicinity of the falling debris, although normal operations have since resumed.

The FAA frequently restricts airspace during space launches and reentries, but it has the authority to establish a “debris response area” to keep aircraft away if a space vehicle encounters an anomaly beyond the initially designated closed zone. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk shared a video on X depicting the debris field, remarking, “Success is uncertain, but entertainment is guaranteed!” This incident occurred just one day after Blue Origin, the space company founded by billionaire Jeff Bezos, successfully launched its New Glenn rocket into orbit for the first time.

“new generation ship”

The Starship upper stage, which is 2 meters (6.56 feet) taller than its predecessors, was described by SpaceX as a “new generation ship with significant upgrades” in the mission briefing prior to the test. It was intended to execute a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean approximately one hour after its launch from Texas. Musk indicated that an initial evaluation of the failure revealed an internal leak of liquid oxygen fuel that caused a pressure buildup, ultimately resulting in the rocket’s disintegration.

The FAA is expected to initiate a mishap investigation, which could ground the Starship, similar to previous instances, and assess whether any debris from the rocket’s mid-flight explosion landed in populated areas or outside the designated hazard zone. This incident poses a risk to Musk’s ambition of conducting at least 12 Starship tests this year, contingent on how swiftly SpaceX can implement necessary repairs and whether the FAA proceeds with a mishap investigation. Musk stated, “Nothing so far suggests pushing next launch past next month.”

The billionaire appointed by incoming President Donald Trump to a new government cost-reduction position has consistently criticized the FAA for its perceived overreach and politically motivated actions. In September, Musk called for the resignation of FAA chief Mike Whitaker, shortly after the agency imposed a fine on SpaceX and postponed one of its launches. Whitaker announced in December that he would resign before Trump’s inauguration, but a successor has yet to be appointed.

On Thursday, SpaceX conducted its seventh Starship test of 2023, part of Musk’s ambitious multibillion-dollar initiative to develop a rocket capable of transporting humans and cargo to Mars, as well as launching large groups of satellites into Earth’s orbit. SpaceX’s approach to testing, which often involves pushing Starship prototypes to their limits, has previously resulted in dramatic failures. However, the failure during Thursday’s test occurred in a phase that SpaceX had successfully navigated before. Meanwhile, the Super Heavy booster returned to its launchpad approximately seven minutes after liftoff, executing a planned descent by reigniting its Raptor engines and securing itself with large mechanical arms attached to the launch tower.

Hungary proposes the EU discuss with Trump before deciding on renewing sanctions against Russia

Asif Shahid

January 16, 2025

Hungary has yet to make a decision regarding its support for the renewal of European Union sanctions on Russia, which are set to expire at the end of this month. The country believes that the EU should consult with the incoming Trump administration before making any determinations, according to Hungary’s EU minister.

Minister Janos Boka stated to reporters in Brussels, “It is only logical that we seek the perspective of the new U.S. administration on the future of the sanctions regime before committing to a six-month extension.”

Boka further noted, “No decision has been reached regarding Hungary’s stance at this time. We prefer to wait until we understand the U.S. administration’s views on the sanctions moving forward.”

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has implemented 15 rounds of sanctions and is currently preparing a 16th set. The sanctions under consideration encompass various economic sectors and involve the freezing of Russian central bank assets, as mentioned by Boka.

The EU typically renews existing sanctions every six months, requiring unanimous agreement from all 27 member states. Hungary has maintained closer economic and political ties with Moscow compared to other EU nations.

UK’s Starmer pledges to strengthen Ukraine’s position in its conflict with Russia

Asif Shahid

January 16, 2025

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated on Thursday that he would provide Ukraine with the necessary support to ensure it is in the best possible position to combat Russia in 2025, emphasizing before his discussions in Kyiv with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy: “We mustn’t let up.”

This marks Starmer’s first visit to Ukraine since assuming office in July of the previous year, and he aimed to reaffirm Britain’s commitment to the country just days ahead of Donald Trump’s anticipated return to power in the United States.

His trip follows closely on the heels of German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius’s visit, as European leaders consider what security assurances they can offer as part of any potential peace deal that may be advocated by Trump. Concerns have arisen regarding Trump’s return to the White House, with fears that efforts to conclude Moscow’s conflict could compel Ukraine to relinquish significant territories to Russia for the foreseeable future.

“It is crucial that we ensure Ukraine is in the strongest possible position,” Starmer remarked to reporters after visiting a Kyiv hospital that specializes in burn treatment. “This is why I have engaged in extensive discussions with President Zelenskiy over the months since I became prime minister, and I will continue to do so here in Ukraine.”

“As we approach the three-year mark of this conflict, we must remain steadfast.” Ukraine currently finds itself in a challenging position on the front lines.

Ukrainian forces are currently facing significant manpower shortages and are losing territory in the eastern Donetsk region as Russian troops continue their gradual advance. During Sir Keir Starmer’s meeting with officials in Kyiv, a loud explosion was heard as Ukrainian air defense systems intercepted Russian drones. Since the onset of Russia’s invasion in 2022, the United Kingdom has been a strong advocate for Ukraine, with Starmer’s predecessors having visited Kyiv early in their terms.

Although it took Starmer longer to make the visit, he arrives with a commitment to a century-long partnership with Kyiv aimed at enhancing security and cultural connections. The treaty and political declaration seek to increase military collaboration to bolster security in the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, and Sea of Azov, while also deterring Russian aggression. Additionally, the agreement will address sectors such as energy, critical minerals, and green steel production, according to Starmer’s office.

“Putin’s goal to separate Ukraine from its closest allies has proven to be a significant strategic miscalculation,” Starmer stated. “On the contrary, we are now more united than ever, and this partnership will elevate that friendship to new heights.” Since 2022, the UK has provided £12.8 billion ($16 billion) in support to Ukraine, a figure that pales in comparison to Washington’s $63.5 billion in security assistance, highlighting the critical nature of U.S. actions regarding Ukraine.

The partnership announced on Thursday includes £40 million for Ukraine’s economic recovery, along with additional support for grain verification and trade, particularly benefiting Ukraine’s robust technology sector that has developed equipment for combat readiness.

Israel’s airstrikes in Gaza have killed at least 70 people, following a ceasefire agreement

Asif Shahid

January 16, 2025

Palestinians stand among the rubble of houses destroyed in previous Israeli strikes, amid ceasefire negotiations with Israel, in Gaza City.

Israeli airstrikes resulted in the deaths of at least 70 individuals in Gaza during the night on Thursday, according to local residents and authorities. This occurred just hours after a ceasefire and hostage release agreement was revealed, aimed at concluding 15 months of conflict between Israel and Hamas.

The intricate ceasefire arrangement was brokered on Wednesday through the efforts of Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, seeking to halt the hostilities that have severely impacted the coastal region and heightened tensions across the Middle East.

Set to take effect on Sunday, the agreement proposes an initial six-week ceasefire, during which Israeli forces would gradually withdraw from the Gaza Strip, a region that has seen tens of thousands of casualties. In return for the release of hostages held by Hamas, the militant group governing the enclave, Palestinian prisoners held by Israel would be freed.

However, Israel’s endorsement of the agreement remains contingent upon approval from the country’s security cabinet and government, with a vote scheduled for Thursday, as noted by an Israeli official.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused Hamas of introducing last-minute conditions and reneging on prior commitments. A statement from Netanyahu’s office indicated that the Israeli cabinet would not meet until mediators confirm Hamas’s acceptance of all aspects of the agreement. The implications of this latest delay on the deal remain uncertain. Meanwhile, senior Hamas official Izzat el-Reshiq affirmed the group’s commitment to the ceasefire agreement announced by the mediators on Wednesday.

Hardliners within Netanyahu’s administration continued to seek ways to obstruct the agreement, although a majority of ministers were anticipated to support it. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that his party would remain in the government only if Israel intensifies its military efforts until Hamas is completely defeated. Additionally, far-right police minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has warned of his resignation should the ceasefire be ratified.

DEMANDS FOR SWIFTER ACTION

Some Palestinians urged for a quicker execution of the deal. “We are losing homes every hour. We demand that this joy not be fleeting, the joy that has appeared on our faces—do not squander it by postponing the truce’s implementation until Sunday,” said Gazan resident Mahmoud Abu Wardeh. While celebrations erupted in Gaza and Israel, reports indicated that the Israeli military continued its operations, according to the civil emergency service and local residents. Mahmoud Basal, spokesperson for the Palestinian Civil Emergency Service, reported that 71 Palestinians had died and over 200 were injured. The Israeli military is currently investigating these claims, as stated by a military spokesperson.

During a press conference in Doha, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani announced that negotiators are collaborating with both Israel and Hamas to facilitate the agreement’s implementation. “This deal will put an end to the hostilities in Gaza, provide essential humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians, and reunite hostages with their families after more than 15 months of captivity,” U.S. President Joe Biden remarked in Washington. His successor, Donald Trump, who assumes office on Monday, has taken credit for the progress made in Gaza.

It will be challenging for Israelis to accept the release of Palestinian militants who were serving life sentences for their roles in fatal attacks within their nation. However, numerous polls indicate significant public support for an agreement that would facilitate the release of hostages, even if it comes at a considerable cost. “This must be the only option we pursue to ensure our survival as a state and a nation, as we are willing to do anything to protect one another,” stated Chava Treitel, a resident of Jerusalem.

Israel has achieved significant advancements against Iran and its allies, particularly Hezbollah, as the conflict in Gaza escalated. While Hamas may have been weakened, the absence of an alternative governing body has allowed it to remain intact. If the ceasefire is successful, it will put an end to the hostilities that have devastated much of densely populated Gaza, resulting in over 46,000 fatalities and displacing the majority of the enclave’s pre-war population of 2.3 million, according to local authorities.

This development could also alleviate tensions throughout the broader Middle East, where the conflict has intensified strife in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, raising concerns about a potential all-out war between Israel and its primary regional adversary, Iran. With 98 Israeli hostages still in Gaza, the first phase of the agreement involves the release of 33 hostages, which includes all women, children, and men over the age of 50.

Humanitarian Aid Arriving at Gaza’s Borders

The agreement stipulates an increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza, with the U.N. and the International Committee of the Red Cross preparing to enhance their assistance efforts. The global response to the ceasefire has been overwhelmingly positive.

Following the incursion of Hamas-led militants into Israeli border communities on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 soldiers and civilians and the abduction of over 250 hostages, Israeli forces launched an invasion of Gaza.

Discussions regarding the implementation of the second phase of the agreement are set to commence on the 16th day of the first phase, which is anticipated to involve the release of all remaining hostages, a permanent ceasefire, and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

The third phase will focus on the recovery of all remaining deceased individuals and the initiation of Gaza’s reconstruction, overseen by Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.

Russia claims Western allegations of sabotaging its undersea cables aim to limit its maritime oil exports

Asif Shahid

January 16, 2025

Spokesperson of Russia's Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova attends the annual press conference held by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, Russia.

Russia has accused NATO and Western nations of making baseless claims regarding ships allegedly involved in the sabotage of undersea cables, which they assert is an attempt to restrict Russian oil exports by sea.

Last month, Finnish authorities confiscated a tanker carrying Russian oil, suspecting it of having damaged the Estlink 2 power line between Finland and Estonia, as well as four telecommunications cables, by dragging its anchor along the seabed.

Earlier this week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated that NATO members are considering sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet in the region to safeguard critical undersea infrastructure.

Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, criticized NATO for what she described as the use of “myths” to justify an increased military presence in the Baltic Sea. She stated, “The true aim of these actions is to restrict Russian oil exports by any means necessary and to lay the groundwork for arbitrary limitations on international shipping in the Baltic Sea,” during a press conference.

Trump’s nominee for the State Department provides a sobering assessment of the situation in Ukraine

Asif Shahid

January 16, 2025

It is impractical to assume that Ukraine can achieve victory over Russia, and the United States should reconsider its ongoing support for Kiev, according to Marco Rubio, who has been nominated to serve as Secretary of State in the forthcoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

During his testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday, part of his confirmation process, Rubio emphasized that the primary focus for Washington should be to bring the conflict to a resolution.

“I believe the official stance of the United States should be that this war needs to come to an end,” the senator from Florida stated to his peers.

“There is no scenario in which Russia occupies all of Ukraine,” Rubio asserted. “That is simply not feasible.”

“Similarly, Ukraine will not be able to drive Russian forces back to their original positions,” he continued, highlighting the significant disparities in size and population between the two nations.

Rubio pointed out that Ukraine’s challenge lies not in financial resources but in the diminishing number of its citizens, referencing a recent observation he encountered.

He noted that millions of Ukrainians currently reside abroad and may not return, given the extensive damage to the country’s infrastructure and economy, which will require decades and substantial financial investment to restore.

The US Congress has allocated nearly $175 billion in aid to Ukraine since the conflict intensified in February 2022, with approximately $65 billion designated for direct military support. However, according to Rubio, the previous administration “never clearly defined the ultimate objective of the conflict” during discussions with senators.

“What were we actually funding? What were we investing in? Often, it seemed like the approach was ‘whatever it takes for as long as it takes.’ This is neither a realistic nor a wise stance,” he remarked.

Rubio emphasized that achieving peace will require “significant effort” and “courageous diplomacy,” necessitating concessions from both Ukraine and Russia.

“It is crucial to maintain a degree of balance between both parties. Essentially, reaching a ceasefire and a lasting peace agreement will be challenging unless both sides possess some form of leverage,” he added.

Ukraine has prohibited any negotiations with Russia while President Vladimir Putin remains in power. Meanwhile, Moscow has expressed a willingness to engage in talks, but its conditions for resolving the conflict include ensuring that Ukraine becomes a neutral, demilitarized, and “denazified” nation that upholds the civil rights of Russian speakers and acknowledges the territorial changes that have occurred.

UK Prime Minister Starmer is set to visit Ukraine to formalize a new treaty

Asif Shahid

January 16, 2025

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Ukraine to formalize a new century-long partnership aimed at enhancing security relations, according to a statement released by the prime minister’s office on Thursday.

This partnership is anticipated to strengthen military cooperation in maritime security and establish the United Kingdom as a key ally in Ukraine’s energy sector, critical minerals strategy, and green steel production, among other areas, the office noted.

The treaty and accompanying political declaration will be submitted to the British Parliament in the upcoming weeks.

Trump administration has reportedly asked three senior State Department diplomats to resign

Asif Shahid

January 16, 2025

Aides to President-elect Donald Trump have requested that three senior career diplomats responsible for managing the U.S. State Department’s personnel and internal operations resign from their positions, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the situation. This move may indicate significant changes for the diplomatic service.

The Agency Review Team, which is overseeing the transition at the State Department, has asked Dereck Hogan, Marcia Bernicat, and Alaina Teplitz to vacate their roles, the sources reported.

While it is customary for political appointees to resign when a new president assumes office, most career foreign service officers typically remain in their positions across administrations. All three diplomats have served under both Democratic and Republican administrations, including roles as ambassadors.

Trump, who is set to be inaugurated on January 20, has vowed to “clean out the deep state” by dismissing bureaucrats he considers disloyal.

One U.S. official expressed concern, stating, “There’s a little bit of a concern that this might be setting the stage for something worse.”

In response to inquiries, a spokesperson for Trump’s transition team commented, “It is entirely appropriate for the transition to seek officials who share President Trump’s vision for putting our nation and America’s working men and women first. We have a lot of failures to fix and that requires a committed team focused on the same goals.”

A spokesperson for the State Department indicated that there are currently no personnel announcements to share. Hogan, Bernicat, and Teplitz did not provide comments when approached for their input.

Trump is expected to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy, pledging to foster peace between Ukraine and Russia while increasing support for Israel. He has also advocated for unconventional initiatives, such as the potential acquisition of Greenland and urging NATO allies to boost their defense expenditures. Experts suggest that a diplomatic team willing to implement his directives without resistance will be crucial for realizing his objectives.

The request for the three officials to resign echoes the staff reorganizations seen during Trump’s first term, when several prominent leaders were dismissed from their roles.

According to two sources familiar with Trump’s intentions for the State Department, the administration aims to appoint a greater number of political appointees to roles like assistant secretary, which are usually occupied by a combination of career and political officials. These sources noted that Trump’s team believes that career diplomats hindered his agenda during his previous term from 2017 to 2021, prompting a desire to embed more politically appointed individuals within the department. The Agency Review Team is already in the process of interviewing candidates for these positions, according to the two sources.

Hogan serves as the executive secretary of the State Department, responsible for overseeing the flow of information between various department bureaus and the White House, as stated on the State Department’s website. Bernicat holds the position of director-general of the U.S. Foreign Service and is in charge of global talent, focusing on the recruitment, assignment, and career development of the department’s personnel.

Assistant Secretary Teplitz has dedicated over thirty years to the Department, with experience both abroad and in Washington. Recently, she has taken on the responsibilities of under secretary for management, which includes oversight of more than a dozen bureaus that handle a range of issues from budgeting to recruitment, procurement, and human resources.

Dennis Jett, a professor at Penn State’s School of International Affairs and a former foreign service officer for 28 years, remarked, “These are not policy positions. This is all the mechanics of the bureaucracy. But if you want to control the bureaucracy, that’s the way you do it.”

The selection of individuals for these three positions would enable Trump’s administration to reallocate resources within the State Department, manage the information flow from various bureaus and embassies, and influence personnel decisions.

“SHATTER THE DEEP STATE”

The call for these officials to resign coincided with Marco Rubio’s testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding his nomination as secretary of state. On his campaign website, Trump outlined a ten-step plan to “shatter the deep state” and “fire rogue bureaucrats and career politicians.”

The initial step involves reinstating a 2020 executive order aimed at eliminating employment protections for specific civil servants, thereby facilitating their dismissal. Critics of this initiative, commonly referred to as “Schedule F” due to the new category of civil servants it would establish, argue that removing these protections would enable Trump to politicize the federal workforce to advance his policy objectives.

Typically, presidents have the authority to select several thousand political appointees within the federal bureaucracy, while the career civil service, comprising approximately two million employees, remains untouched.

The implementation of Schedule F would empower Trump to terminate up to 50,000 of these employees and replace them with individuals who share his conservative views. According to Jett, a professor, taking control of the State Department’s personnel would “expedite” the appointment of loyal officials. Unions and government oversight organizations have indicated their intention to file a lawsuit against Trump should he proceed with his plan to re-establish Schedule F.

Biden to pass an incomplete agenda to Trump for a tumultuous Middle East

Asif Shahid

January 16, 2025

U.S. President Joe Biden meets with President-elect Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., November 13, 2024.

U.S. President Joe Biden‘s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, characterized the Middle East as “quieter” in late September 2023, marking a notable shift from the previous two decades. However, this assessment quickly proved inaccurate. Just eight days later, Hamas executed a surprise and lethal attack from Gaza into Israel, igniting a conflict that ravaged the Palestinian territory and unleashed chaos throughout the region. This series of events has overshadowed Biden’s foreign policy legacy as he approaches the end of his term on January 20.

Despite Biden’s team playing a crucial role in brokering a ceasefire deal that facilitated the release of hostages by Hamas, analysts suggest that his legacy in the Middle East will be defined more by the conflicts that escalated during his presidency rather than by their resolutions. This situation leaves a significant amount of unresolved issues for the next president, Donald Trump, and his administration.

Biden’s international reputation is likely to be significantly shaped by his management of the ongoing 15-month conflict in Gaza, which Trump and other Republicans have labeled as a “world on fire” during Biden’s administration. They criticize Biden for a perceived lack of resolve that has allowed adversaries to instigate disorder in the region. Conversely, Biden’s supporters argue that he has navigated a complex array of Middle Eastern challenges, many of which were not of his own making, and have effectively weakened Iran and its allies while striving to minimize civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon.

Biden’s unwavering support for Israel, which resulted in a significant blow to Hamas but also led to the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians in Gaza, severely impacted the United States’ international standing. This stance also created divisions within his Democratic Party, contributing to Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss to Trump in the November election.

“The positive aspect is that Biden positioned himself as a dependable ally for Israel,” noted Aaron David Miller, a former adviser on Middle Eastern affairs for both Democratic and Republican administrations. “However, the negative aspect is that he struggled to rein in Prime Minister Netanyahu in Gaza, which has inflicted considerable reputational harm on the U.S.”

The ceasefire plan for Gaza, finalized in the closing days of Biden’s presidency after extensive negotiations, was rooted in proposals he had introduced in mid-2024. Achieving this required relentless effort alongside Qatari and Egyptian mediators to bring it to fruition.

However, the last-minute diplomatic success in Doha was largely perceived by regional stakeholders as being influenced by Trump’s stern warnings that there would be “serious consequences” if hostages were not released by the time he took office on Monday. A source familiar with the Gaza negotiations described this threat as a “sword” looming over the discussions.

Trump sent his incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to work alongside Biden’s chief negotiator, Brett McGurk. An Israeli official indicated that Witkoff’s involvement provided additional momentum to the negotiations.

“Witkoff was instrumental in pressuring Netanyahu to accept the deal and act swiftly,” stated an official familiar with the discussions, referring to a meeting with the conservative leader who had developed a close rapport with Trump during his first term. Netanyahu’s cabinet is set to vote on the agreement on Thursday, with a majority of ministers anticipated to endorse it, according to an Israeli government official.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken presented a proposal for post-war Gaza on Tuesday, but the responsibility for ensuring the full execution of the ceasefire plan and determining the extent of involvement in the “Day After” will fall to the Trump administration.

BIDEN RECEIVES BOTH PRAISE AND CRITICISM

During his final year in office, President Biden has been recognized for building an international coalition that provided support to Israel against Iranian missile threats and for approving Israeli counterstrikes on Tehran’s air defenses, despite his cautions against targeting Iranian nuclear and oil facilities. In response to U.S. calls for restraint, Israel conducted multiple strikes against Hezbollah militants in Lebanon last year, often without prior notification to Washington. This aggressive approach was a significant factor in the Iran-aligned group’s acceptance of a U.S.-backed ceasefire in November.

The Biden administration was subsequently taken by surprise when a rapid rebel offensive led to the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, another key Iranian ally, in early December. Since then, the administration has been working to encourage the new Islamist leadership to establish an inclusive government and to avert a resurgence of the Islamic State, responsibilities that will now be passed on to Trump.

Elliott Abrams, who served as Trump’s special envoy on Iran during his first term, commented, “The most significant achievement is that Biden did not obstruct Israel, although he consistently advised against certain actions.” He assessed Biden’s performance in the Middle East as “mediocre,” stating, “I don’t believe he merits much credit regarding Lebanon or Syria.”

In his farewell foreign policy address at the State Department on Monday, Biden defended his administration’s strategy, asserting that the U.S. has played a crucial role in making Iran “weaker than it’s been in decades.”

Some analysts have praised his efforts in preventing a full-scale regional conflict. However, Biden leaves Trump with what many experts consider the most significant challenge in the Middle East: an Iranian nuclear program that has progressed over the last four years and could rapidly advance toward weaponization if Iran chooses to do so.

Critics argue that Trump’s 2018 decision to withdraw from the international nuclear agreement with Iran paved the way for these developments, while Secretary of State Blinken highlighted that one of Biden’s achievements has been deterring Tehran from acquiring a nuclear bomb. Upon returning to office, Trump will face the decision of whether to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran or to authorize military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

“The approach to Iran will significantly influence Trump’s broader regional strategy,” noted Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East. Additionally, Trump will need to address the ongoing threat from Yemen’s Houthis, who have been launching missiles at shipping in the Red Sea and targeting Israel for over a year. Biden’s military actions, coordinated with U.S. allies, have not succeeded in neutralizing the Houthi threat.

While recognizing that the Middle East is still “fraught with danger,” Blinken, in his concluding policy address, highlighted achievements he attributed to the administration, such as facilitating a U.N.-brokered ceasefire in Yemen’s civil conflict, bolstering the international coalition against the Islamic State, and enhancing regional cooperation.

SAUDI-ISRAEL NORMALIZATION EFFORT DISRUPTED

Sullivan faced significant criticism from Biden’s opponents following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, particularly for his remarks made just over a week prior, stating that the Middle East “is quieter today than it has been in two decades,” despite acknowledging ongoing challenges.

Although Sullivan later clarified his statements to NBC News, emphasizing they were based on recent regional trends and asserting that the administration remained focused, the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict disrupted Biden’s international agenda.

In the wake of the Hamas assault, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 individuals in Israel and the abduction of over 250 hostages, Biden, who identifies as a “Zionist,” became the first U.S. president to visit Israel during a time of war.

He subsequently maintained a consistent supply of arms to Israel for its stated mission to dismantle Hamas, which is backed by Iran, despite ongoing resistance from Netanyahu regarding U.S. calls to mitigate civilian casualties and alleviate the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

Biden’s reluctance to leverage U.S. influence as Israel’s primary arms supplier has estranged numerous Arab American voters and created significant unrest within the U.S. diplomatic community. “Gaza will be the legacy,” remarked Mike Casey, a former State Department official with 15 years of experience as a foreign service officer, who was among those who resigned in protest. “They will uncover bodies in the debris. People will continue to suffer from disease… It will always circle back to him.” The White House did not provide a response to inquiries regarding criticism of its policy on Gaza.

Simultaneously, the conflict in Gaza has hindered Biden’s attempts to facilitate a historic normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which would include U.S. security assurances for the kingdom. Some Arab nations are now observing whether Trump, who previously established diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab countries through the Abraham Accords during his first term, will renew normalization initiatives and adopt a firmer stance against Iran.

Within Trump’s circle, there is a belief that an Israeli-Saudi agreement remains feasible, according to a source familiar with the discussions. However, despite some Arab allies maintaining relatively distant relations with Biden, they remain cautious of Trump due to his previous reluctance to pressure Netanyahu towards a pathway for Palestinian statehood, a longstanding Saudi prerequisite for normalization with Israel. “Biden hasn’t been perceived as the Arab world’s best ally,” stated a Middle East diplomat in Washington. “Yet, we are still uncertain about what to anticipate from Trump 2.0.”

What’s in the Hamas-Israel ceasefire and hostage release deal

Asif Shahid

January 16, 2025

Buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from southern Israel.

The initial stage of the agreement established between Hamas and Israel on Wednesday entails a cessation of hostilities and the release of Israeli hostages from Gaza, alongside Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.

However, numerous specifics and the timeline for the complete agreement remain ambiguous, which will be crucial for its future success.

This agreement marks the second ceasefire since the conflict erupted on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an assault on Israel, resulting in over 1,200 fatalities and the abduction of 250 hostages, as reported by Israeli officials. In retaliation, Israel’s military operations have led to the deaths of at least 46,645 Palestinians and injuries to more than 110,000 in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

The first ceasefire, which occurred in November 2023, lasted approximately one week. During this time, 105 hostages held by Hamas—mainly women, children, and the elderly—were freed, while Israel released around 240 Palestinian prisoners from its facilities.

The current ceasefire agreement is structured to unfold in three distinct phases.

The first phase is anticipated to commence on Sunday and continue for six weeks. This phase will include a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, a swap of hostages and prisoners, and an increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza. US hostages in Gaza are expected to be released during this initial phase, as stated by US President Joe Biden on Wednesday.

The specifics of the second and third phases are still under development, with details to be determined during the first phase, according to Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in a briefing on Wednesday.

We will persist in our efforts, collaborating closely with our partners to ensure the successful implementation of this agreement as intended, he stated, highlighting that mediators have dedicated 411 days to finalizing the terms. “This agreement is expected to lead us to peace, hopefully in the end. I am convinced that its success hinges on the parties involved acting in good faith to prevent any potential collapse of the deal.”

Hamas described the agreement on Wednesday as a “significant turning point.” However, the Israeli cabinet must still vote to ratify the deal before it can take effect.

Here’s a detailed overview of the current ceasefire agreement and the forthcoming steps.

Ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, and humanitarian aid

The ceasefire agreement would provide the first break from conflict for the people of Gaza in over a year, marking only the second such pause since the onset of Israeli bombardment.

According to an Israeli official, the military will initiate a withdrawal from populated areas in the first phase but will maintain a presence along the Gaza-Egypt border, known as the Philadelphi Corridor. Additionally, Israel will keep a buffer zone within Gaza adjacent to its border, which has been a key point of contention in the negotiations.

The agreement is anticipated to facilitate the return of Palestinian civilians to their homes throughout Gaza, including the heavily impacted northern regions. A significant influx of humanitarian aid is expected to enter the strip, where residents have been enduring severe humanitarian challenges, as noted by Al Thani.

Gaza’s injured individuals will be permitted to exit the enclave for medical treatment, and humanitarian aid will be allowed into the region, with hospitals and bakeries undergoing necessary repairs, as stated by officials.

Which hostages and prisoners will be released?

In the initial phase of the agreement, Hamas and its allied militant factions will free 33 hostages, which will include female soldiers, children, the elderly, and those with health issues, in exchange for an undisclosed number of Palestinian prisoners, according to Al Thani.

As part of the arrangement, American hostages held by Hamas will also be included in the first phase of the hostage release, as confirmed by Biden.

On the first day of the ceasefire, three female Israeli civilian hostages are anticipated to be released, followed by the release of four additional hostages on the seventh day, as outlined in a document shared by senior Hamas official Bassem Naim.

Subsequently, Hamas will release three Israeli detainees every week, beginning with women, both civilians and soldiers, as indicated in the document.

During the sixth week, Hamas is expected to release all remaining detainees included in this phase, while Israel will reciprocate by releasing the agreed number of Palestinian prisoners from its facilities, based on lists provided by Hamas.

Hamas and its affiliates are currently detaining 94 individuals who were taken from Israel on October 7, 2023. The Israeli government reports that at least 34 of these individuals are deceased, although the actual number may be higher. Among the hostages, 81 are men and 13 are women. The group includes 84 individuals from Israel, along with eight from Thailand, one from Nepal, and one from Tanzania.

Additionally, Hamas has four other hostages who have been held since 2014, with at least two confirmed dead.

On the other hand, Israel is reported to be holding at least 10,000 Palestinian prisoners, as stated by the Commission of Detainees Affairs and the Palestinian Prisoners’ Society. This figure does not account for an unspecified number of Palestinians captured in Gaza. Included in the total of Palestinian prisoners are 3,376 individuals under administrative detention, who have not been publicly charged or tried, comprising 95 children and 22 women.

Second and third phases to be negotiated

Negotiations for the second and third phases of the ceasefire are yet to take place during the first phase. According to an Israeli official, these discussions are set to commence on the 16th day following the implementation of the agreement.

The continuation of the ceasefire beyond the initial phase of the agreement is not assured. Nevertheless, an official indicated that Israel is committed to “bringing all our hostages back home” and will engage in negotiations for the subsequent phase with sincerity, which may facilitate the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

President Biden stated that the second and third phases will involve the release of additional hostages and the initiation of reconstruction efforts in Gaza.

“When the second phase commences, there will be an exchange for the release of the remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and all Israeli forces will be withdrawn from Gaza, transitioning the temporary ceasefire into a permanent one,” he explained.

“Finally, in phase three, the remains of any hostages who have perished will be returned to their families, and a comprehensive reconstruction plan for Gaza will commence.”

How the deal will be enforced

Regarding the enforcement of the agreement, Al Thani responded to a question, stating that the US, Egypt, and Qatar have established a mechanism to ensure compliance with the ceasefire by both parties.

“This mechanism will be based in Cairo, and a joint team from the three nations will oversee the implementation of the agreement,” he noted. “All aspects have been agreed upon and are expected to be operational by the execution date.”

Al Thani indicated that the current ceasefire agreement differs significantly from the one established in November 2023, which was only effective for a week.

“Regrettably, the November agreement was quite transactional, operating on a day-to-day basis,” he explained. “In contrast, this new agreement includes a well-defined framework for the initial 42 days, along with a structured approach for negotiating subsequent phases. All specifics of the agreements will be made public in the coming days as the details are finalized.”

Taiwan’s defense minister has stated that the navy will safeguard undersea cables if necessary

Asif Shahid

January 16, 2025

Taiwan’s Defence Minister Wellington Koo announced on Thursday that the navy will be deployed if necessary to assist the coast guard in addressing any suspicious activities near undersea communication cables. This statement follows an incident involving a ship linked to China, which is suspected of damaging one of these cables.

Taiwan, which China claims as its territory, reported that a vessel owned by a Hong Kong company, registered in both Cameroon and Tanzania, caused damage to a cable located north of the island earlier this month. However, Taiwan has been unable to confirm the ship’s intentions or board it due to adverse weather conditions.

The ship’s owner has refuted any claims of wrongdoing, while the Chinese government has accused Taiwan of fabricating allegations before establishing the facts. This incident has raised significant concerns in Taiwan, which has frequently expressed worries about “grey zone” activities by China aimed at exerting pressure without direct confrontation, including balloon overflights and sand dredging.

During a press conference at parliament, Koo emphasized that the armed forces would work in close coordination with the coast guard to monitor areas where undersea cables are situated. He stated, “If an incident occurs, the coast guard will respond first, and the navy will provide immediate support if necessary.”

Additionally, Taiwan’s National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen informed the media that the government has initiated a mechanism to share information with “international friends” regarding Chinese “grey zone” maritime activities, although he did not disclose specific details.

Taiwan will concentrate on vessels that operate under flags of convenience—ships registered in countries different from their actual owners—and will examine how China may be utilizing these vessels in the waters surrounding the island, according to Tsai. The Taiwanese government, which disputes Beijing’s claims of sovereignty, has drawn parallels between its own experiences and the damage inflicted on undersea cables in the Baltic Sea after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Recently, Taiwan’s administration remarked that Chinese ships operating under flags of convenience carry “the mark of evil.”

U.S. has announced new sanctions on Russia ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House

Asif Shahid

January 16, 2025

The United States announced a series of sanctions against Russia on Wednesday, aiming to intensify pressure on Moscow during the final days of the Biden administration while safeguarding previously established sanctions.

The U.S. State and Treasury departments targeted over 250 entities, including some located in China, focusing on Russia’s attempts to circumvent U.S. sanctions and its military industrial sector.

As part of this initiative, the Treasury introduced new restrictions on nearly 100 entities that were already under sanctions, which could complicate future efforts to lift these measures.

The Russian embassy in Washington has not yet responded to inquiries for comment.

In a statement, the Treasury indicated that new sanctions were being imposed on almost 100 key Russian entities, including banks and companies in the energy sector, which had previously faced U.S. sanctions. This action heightens the risk of secondary sanctions for these entities.

These new sanctions are enacted under an executive order that, according to a senior Treasury official, mandates that Congress be informed before any of these actions can be undone.

Jeremy Paner, a partner at Hughes Hubbard & Reed, remarked that these measures are designed to be “Trump-proofed,” making it difficult to reverse the additional sanctions without congressional consent. “You can’t simply erase what’s been implemented with a quick decision,” he stated.

Edward Fishman, a former U.S. official and current research scholar at Columbia University, described the move as “very significant.” He noted that it safeguards these sanctions from any arbitrary decisions to lift them, thereby providing the incoming Trump administration with greater leverage in dealings with Russia.

Trump’s transition team did not provide an immediate response to a request for comment. It remains uncertain how Donald Trump, who will take over from President Joe Biden on Monday, plans to handle the issue of sanctions against Russia. Historically, Trump has maintained a cordial relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and indicated on Monday that he intends to meet with him soon to discuss the situation in Ukraine. When questioned about his approach to ending the conflict, Trump stated to Newsmax: “There’s only one strategy, and it’s up to Putin. I can’t imagine he’s too pleased with how things have unfolded, as it hasn’t gone particularly well for him either.”

SANCTIONS EVASION SCHEME

The U.S. has also taken measures against a sanctions evasion scheme involving participants from Russia and China, focusing on regional clearing platforms in both nations that have reportedly facilitated cross-border payments for sensitive goods. The Treasury Department noted that several Russian banks under U.S. sanctions were involved. Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, expressed in a statement, “China firmly opposes any illegal unilateral sanctions and ‘long-arm jurisdiction.’ The normal economic and trade exchanges between China and Russia should not be interfered with or disrupted, and should not be used as a tool to smear and contain China.”

Keremet Bank, a financial institution based in Kyrgyzstan, was also subjected to sanctions on Wednesday. The U.S. Treasury accused the bank of collaborating with Russian officials and of being involved with another bank identified by the United States as evading sanctions. Keremet Bank has not yet provided a response to requests for comment.

Additionally, the U.S. State Department placed sanctions on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is under Russian control and is the largest in Europe. This facility, located in southeastern Ukraine, was seized by Russia shortly after the invasion began in 2022. Although the plant is currently shut down, it requires external power to maintain the cooling of its nuclear materials and prevent a potential meltdown. According to Russian news agencies, citing the plant’s spokeswoman, the sanctions will not impact its operations.

The Biden administration has enacted numerous punitive measures against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which has resulted in significant casualties and widespread destruction. Washington has consistently aimed to address the circumvention of these sanctions. Just days ago, the administration introduced its most extensive sanctions package to date, targeting Russia’s oil and gas revenues to provide leverage for Kyiv and the incoming Trump administration in negotiations for peace in Ukraine.

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