The ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has triggered a major strategic debate among military analysts and on social media. A key question being discussed is whether China might take advantage of the situation and launch military action against Taiwan while the US military is heavily engaged in the Middle East.
Historically, China has taken advantage of moments when the United States was distracted by conflicts elsewhere. However, current developments suggest that Beijing is taking a very different approach this time.
Reduced Chinese Military Activity Around Taiwan
Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, China’s military activities around Taiwan have actually declined rather than increased.
Taiwan’s air defense monitoring data shows that only two Chinese fighter jets entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in March so far. This marks the lowest level of Chinese military incursions into Taiwanese airspace in recent years.
Analysts believe this decrease may be a diplomatic signal from Beijing ahead of a planned visit by US President Donald Trump to China later in March. China may be attempting to create a more stable and cooperative atmosphere before high-level talks between the two powers.
Taiwanese experts suggest that Beijing is currently signaling that it does not intend to resolve the Taiwan issue through military force in the near term.
Historical Precedent: Mao’s Strategy in 1958
China has previously attempted to exploit moments when the United States was involved in other conflicts.
In 1958, Chinese leader Mao Zedong ordered artillery bombardments of the Kinmen and Matsu islands. These islands are located just off the coast of mainland China but remain under Taiwanese control.
At the time, the United States was conducting military operations in Lebanon. Mao famously described Taiwan and Lebanon as “two traps” designed to tie down American military power.
By shelling the islands, Mao believed China was supporting anti-American movements in the Middle East while simultaneously challenging US influence in East Asia.
US Military Shift Toward the Middle East
The current Iran conflict has required the United States to shift some of its military resources away from the Indo-Pacific region.
One major example is the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln from the South China Sea to the Middle East.
The carrier began its journey on January 14 and was expected to reach waters near Oman by January 26.
In addition, Washington has considered moving the THAAD missile defense system from South Korea to the Middle East to counter potential Iranian missile threats.
Some analysts worry these moves could temporarily weaken US deterrence against China in the Taiwan Strait.
China’s Energy Dependence Limits Military Options
Another major factor limiting China’s ability to launch a military operation against Taiwan is its heavy dependence on imported energy.
US actions against major oil-producing countries such as Venezuela and Iran have already created challenges for China’s energy supply.
Unofficial Chinese estimates suggest that in 2025 China imported approximately 463,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Venezuela. This represented around 70–80 percent of Venezuela’s total exports and about 7 percent of China’s total oil imports.
Iran is an even more critical supplier. Reports indicate that nearly 99 percent of Iran’s oil exports in 2025 were sent to China, accounting for about 13 percent of China’s seaborne crude imports.
Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important oil routes for China.
In 2025, approximately 14.9 million barrels of oil passed through the strait each day. About 5 million barrels of that total were destined for China, representing roughly 43 percent of its daily oil imports.
Any prolonged disruption in Middle Eastern oil supplies could seriously affect China’s economy and military readiness.
Taiwanese media quoted a French economist suggesting that such energy dependence could hinder China’s ability to wage a long-term war against Taiwan.
China’s Strategic Oil Reserves
Despite these vulnerabilities, China has built a large strategic oil reserve to reduce potential supply disruptions.
Estimates suggest that China currently holds about 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil in its strategic stockpiles. If oil imports from the Middle East were completely cut off, these reserves could sustain China’s needs for approximately six months.
At the same time, Beijing is rapidly expanding domestic renewable energy production in order to reduce long-term reliance on imported fossil fuels.
Strengthening energy security has become a central pillar of China’s broader strategy for long-term competition with other major powers.
Military Reforms and Anti-Corruption Campaign
China’s military is also undergoing a major internal restructuring under President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign.
Since 2022, more than 100 senior military officers have reportedly been removed or investigated.
The shake-up has extended to the highest levels of military leadership. Between 2024 and 2026, five of the seven members of China’s Central Military Commission were removed or replaced, leaving only Chairman Xi Jinping and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin in their positions.
The expected resignation of Vice Chairman He Weidong in 2025 is also considered significant. He played an important role in shaping China’s “grey-zone strategy” against Taiwan, which involves pressure tactics short of open warfare.
These leadership changes could affect the operational readiness and strategic planning of the People’s Liberation Army.
Lessons From Modern Warfare
Some analysts believe China may also be closely studying recent US military operations.
Reports suggest that the performance of the Chinese-made HQ-9B air defense system used by Iran against US and Israeli strikes has raised questions about the effectiveness of certain Chinese military technologies.
Taiwanese media cited reports indicating that Iran’s mixed air defense network—combining Chinese, Russian, and locally produced systems—struggled against advanced American and Israeli electronic warfare and precision strikes.
However, China has denied supplying weapons to Iran.
These developments may be encouraging Beijing to reassess the readiness of its own military systems.
Strategic Calculations Continue
Although the US shift toward the Middle East might appear to create an opportunity for China, several factors suggest Beijing is not ready to take such a risk.
China’s military is undergoing major restructuring, its energy supply remains vulnerable to global disruptions, and diplomatic engagement with the United States remains ongoing.
At the same time, US military power and alliances in the Indo-Pacific continue to pose a significant obstacle to any potential Chinese military action against Taiwan.
For now, Beijing appears to be prioritizing strategic patience rather than military escalation.
