Bangladesh’s reported negotiations to acquire 24 Chinese J-10CE multirole fighter aircraft are attracting increasing attention across South Asia, with Indian defence analysts viewing the proposed purchase as a development that could gradually reshape the region’s military balance rather than simply modernize Bangladesh’s air force.
According to multiple media reports, Dhaka is considering a government-to-government agreement worth approximately US$2.2 billion, covering not only the aircraft but also pilot training, logistics support, maintenance infrastructure, spare parts, weapons integration, and long-term sustainment extending well into the mid-2030s.
While no official contract has yet been announced by either Bangladesh or China, the reported negotiations have intensified strategic debate in New Delhi over China’s expanding defence footprint around India’s eastern and western borders.
For India, the issue extends beyond the purchase of 24 fighter aircraft. Defence analysts increasingly see the reported deal as another step in Beijing’s long-term effort to expand Chinese military-industrial influence throughout South Asia.
Bangladesh Seeks to Modernize Its Air Force
Bangladesh has long sought to modernize its ageing combat aviation fleet under its Forces Goal 2030 modernization programme.
The Bangladesh Air Force currently operates a relatively small fleet consisting primarily of:
- F-7BG/BGI fighters
- MiG-29 aircraft
- Yak-130 advanced trainers
- Various transport and support aircraft
Many of these platforms are approaching the limits of their operational life or lack the advanced sensors and long-range weapons found on modern 4.5-generation fighters.
The reported acquisition of the Chengdu J-10CE would significantly enhance Bangladesh’s air combat capability by introducing:
- Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar
- Modern electronic warfare suite
- Digital cockpit
- Beyond-visual-range air combat capability
- Precision strike capability
- Anti-ship mission capability
- Advanced datalink integration
For Dhaka, the procurement would represent a logical modernization effort aimed at improving national air defence and maritime security.
Why India Is Watching Closely
Indian defence planners acknowledge Bangladesh’s sovereign right to modernize its armed forces.
However, many analysts argue that the strategic significance lies in the platform Bangladesh is reportedly selecting.
Pakistan already operates the J-10CE, making Bangladesh potentially the second export customer for China’s most advanced operational fighter.
If the deal proceeds, India could eventually face the same Chinese-developed combat aircraft on both its western and eastern approaches.
Military planners note that operational commonality could extend beyond the aircraft themselves to include:
- PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles
- Chinese avionics architecture
- Electronic warfare systems
- Maintenance procedures
- Pilot training methodologies
- Software upgrades
- Logistics networks
While Bangladesh and Pakistan pursue independent defence policies, Indian analysts argue that common Chinese combat systems could create new operational considerations during future regional crises.
The J-10CE and the PL-15 Missile
Much of the discussion surrounding the J-10CE centres on its compatibility with China’s PL-15 beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile.
The PL-15 is widely regarded as one of China’s most capable long-range air combat missiles and is believed to offer engagement ranges competitive with many modern Western systems.
The missile gained international attention following the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, during which Pakistani and Chinese sources claimed J-10CE fighters successfully employed PL-15 missiles during aerial engagements.
Although several aspects of those claims remain disputed and independently unverified, the conflict significantly increased global interest in the J-10CE’s operational capabilities.
For Indian planners, wider regional deployment of the PL-15 could require continued investment in:
- Electronic warfare
- Airborne early warning
- Fighter tactics
- Counter-missile technologies
- Networked air defence
Concerns Over Lalmonirhat Air Base
One of the most sensitive aspects of the debate involves reports linking Bangladesh’s modernization plans with possible redevelopment of Lalmonirhat Air Base.
The former World War II airfield is located close to India’s strategically vital Siliguri Corridor, often referred to as the “Chicken’s Neck.”
This narrow corridor connects mainland India with its eight northeastern states and has long been viewed as one of India’s most sensitive strategic areas.
Indian analysts argue that any future deployment of modern fighter aircraft near northern Bangladesh could reduce warning times during regional contingencies.
Some Indian media reports have also speculated about possible Chinese involvement in upgrading the airbase.
However, Bangladeshi officials have repeatedly stated that no Chinese military base is planned at Lalmonirhat, emphasizing that infrastructure development remains under Bangladesh’s sovereign control.
No publicly available evidence indicates that China intends to establish a permanent military presence there.
China’s Expanding Defence Presence
The reported J-10CE negotiations also fit within China’s broader defence cooperation with Bangladesh.
Over the past two decades, Beijing has become one of Dhaka’s largest defence suppliers, providing equipment including:
- Naval vessels
- Air defence systems
- Armoured vehicles
- Artillery
- Aircraft
- Missile systems
Chinese defence packages often include long-term maintenance support, training, technical assistance and financing arrangements, making them attractive for countries seeking affordable modernization programmes.
Critics argue such arrangements may increase long-term dependence on Chinese logistics and technical support.
Supporters counter that they provide developing militaries with advanced capabilities at competitive prices.
India Retains Significant Military Advantages
Despite growing discussion surrounding the reported deal, Indian military analysts generally agree that 24 J-10CE fighters alone would not fundamentally alter the regional military balance.
India continues to maintain considerable advantages in:
- Combat aircraft numbers
- Airborne early warning platforms
- Integrated air defence
- Air-to-air refuelling
- Pilot training
- Maintenance infrastructure
- Defence industrial capacity
The Indian Air Force currently fields large fleets of:
- Su-30MKI
- Rafale
- Mirage 2000
- MiG-29UPG
- Tejas
- Jaguar strike aircraft
These assets provide India with substantial numerical and operational superiority.
However, planners note that even limited modernization by neighbouring countries can influence force allocation and long-term planning.
Strategic Impact Beyond Aircraft Numbers
Many Indian defence experts argue that the broader significance of the reported acquisition lies in China’s growing defence-industrial influence rather than the aircraft themselves.
Military procurement increasingly involves decades-long relationships covering:
- Software updates
- Weapons integration
- Maintenance
- Pilot conversion
- Technical training
- Spare parts
- Future upgrades
These long-term partnerships gradually expand strategic relationships beyond individual contracts.
From Beijing’s perspective, successful export of the J-10CE to Bangladesh would further strengthen China’s position as a leading supplier of advanced combat aircraft throughout Asia.
Bangladesh’s Strategic Balancing
Bangladesh has traditionally maintained a balanced foreign policy, seeking constructive relations with China, India, the United States and other regional partners.
Its military modernization programme reflects national security priorities rather than alignment with any single power.
For Dhaka, replacing ageing fighter aircraft is increasingly viewed as necessary to protect national airspace, maritime interests in the Bay of Bengal and overall territorial sovereignty.
Officials have repeatedly emphasized that Bangladesh’s defence modernization is defensive in nature and intended to strengthen national capabilities rather than alter regional stability.
Export Success for China’s Aviation Industry
Should the reported agreement be finalized, Bangladesh would become only the second international operator of the J-10CE after Pakistan.
That would represent another milestone for China’s aerospace industry as it competes with Western and Russian manufacturers in the global fighter aircraft market.
The J-10CE offers several features attractive to export customers:
- AESA radar
- Advanced avionics
- Modern electronic warfare systems
- Precision strike capability
- Multi-role flexibility
- Competitive acquisition costs
- Flexible financing arrangements
These factors have increased the aircraft’s visibility among countries seeking affordable fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters.
Strategic Outlook
Although no official contract has yet been signed, the reported negotiations have already become an important topic in South Asian security discussions.
For Bangladesh, the acquisition would represent a significant step in modernizing its air force.
For China, it would reinforce Beijing’s growing role as a defence supplier across the Indo-Pacific.
For India, the reported deal serves as another reminder that future regional competition will increasingly involve not only military capability but also long-term technological partnerships, defence-industrial influence and evolving security relationships.
Whether or not the J-10CE agreement ultimately materializes, the discussion itself highlights how modern fighter procurement has become as much a geopolitical signal as a military acquisition, reflecting the increasingly interconnected strategic competition shaping South Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific.
