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Biden ready to use U.S. military support for Israel as both an incentive and a deterrent

By
Asif Shahid
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0
President Joe Biden speaks during the United Nations General Assembly

In the closing months of his presidency, Joe Biden is demonstrating a renewed readiness to leverage U.S. military support for Israel as both an incentive and a deterrent in its critical standoff with Iran and Iran-aligned militant factions. However, experts express uncertainty about whether this strategy will effectively meet Biden’s objectives, which include averting a wider regional conflict and compelling Israel to address the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, especially with the U.S. presidential election approaching.

On Sunday, the Biden administration announced the deployment of approximately 100 troops to Israel, accompanied by a sophisticated U.S. anti-missile system. This deployment is notable as it coincides with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s consideration of a retaliatory strike against Iran following an Iranian missile attack on October 1. Additionally, the administration issued a letter to Israel on the same day, emphasizing the need for immediate action to alleviate the humanitarian conditions in Gaza, warning that failure to do so could result in potential limitations on U.S. military assistance.

U.S. officials publicly assert that the seemingly contradictory actions align with established policies designed to ensure Israel’s security while also advocating for the protection of civilians amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza. However, both current and former officials privately recognize that these actions mark a significant increase in U.S. involvement in Israeli strategy, even as President Biden prepares to leave office. Israel has often resisted U.S. counsel, creating political challenges for the Biden administration, which is under pressure from some progressive activists within the Democratic Party to leverage U.S. influence to moderate Israel’s actions.

Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that the administration’s dual approach suggests that, despite appearances of inactivity, there is a clear strategy in play. He warned, however, that it is unlikely Washington will reduce its military support for Israel if tensions with Iran escalate. “As we approach the potential for significant escalation—considering both Israel’s response and Iran’s likely actions—it seems almost unimaginable that this administration would contemplate any serious limitations or conditions on military assistance,” he stated.

White House spokesperson John Kirby informed reporters on Tuesday that the letter was not intended as a threat; however, it seems that the Israeli authorities are treating the matters with seriousness. An Israeli official based in Washington stated, “The letter has been acknowledged and is currently under comprehensive review by Israeli security personnel.” On Wednesday, Israel announced that 50 aid trucks had been sent to northern Gaza from Jordan, which may be an initial response to the demands from the U.S.

A DEADLINE TO INCREASE AID

President Biden has made Israel’s defense a top priority following the outbreak of war initiated by Hamas militants, which resulted in approximately 1,200 fatalities, according to Israeli sources. Despite significant pressure from fellow Democrats, he has continued to supply arms to Israel, with the exception of 2,000-pound bombs, even as the conflict in Gaza has reportedly claimed 42,000 lives, as per Palestinian health authorities.

In April, the administration called for enhanced protections for civilians and aid workers in Gaza, a move that U.S. officials claim led to a temporary increase in aid deliveries to the region.

However, a letter sent on Sunday marked the clearest ultimatum to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government since the onset of the Gaza conflict, specifying that Israel must take concrete actions within 30 days, including allowing at least 350 aid trucks to enter Gaza daily.

This development raises the possibility that Washington may consider making Israel ineligible for U.S. military assistance due to its restrictions on aid distribution, according to John Ramming Chappell, an advocacy and legal advisor at the Center for Civilians in Conflict. “It represents a small step towards a significant change,” he noted.

In response, Netanyahu held an emergency meeting on Wednesday to deliberate on increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza, with three officials present indicating that aid levels are expected to rise soon.

The decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) is also seen as a significant move, according to former officials and analysts, aligning with a strategy to provide Israel with close military support to influence its military operations.

A former defense official characterized this deployment as a “paradigm shift,” given Israel’s historical approach to self-defense. It also heightens the stakes for the United States. “The U.S. is putting actual U.S. ‘skin in the game’ by placing U.S. forces inside Israel, which just two weeks ago faced 180 Iranian ballistic missiles,” the official stated.

Tensions in the Middle East have heightened as the region anticipates Israel’s reaction to a missile strike executed by Tehran earlier this month, which was a response to Israel’s military actions in Lebanon. President Biden has expressed his opposition to any Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities and has raised concerns regarding potential strikes on energy infrastructure.

“This is likely an incentive aimed at persuading the Israelis to refrain from extensive military action,” stated Thomas Karako, director of the missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, commenting on the possibility of Israel targeting nuclear and other significant sites. “Moreover, deploying a multi-billion dollar asset typically comes with certain conditions.”

The White House has not provided a direct answer regarding whether the deployment of THAAD to Israel was part of an agreement to dissuade Israeli strikes on Iranian oil or nuclear facilities.

The administration is under time pressure, as the 30-day period given by Biden for Israel to meet its demands will conclude after the U.S. elections on November 5. This timeline allows Netanyahu to determine the extent of his compliance, particularly if the Republican candidate he aligns with, former President Donald Trump, wins against Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Miller noted that Netanyahu may feel he is in a position of maximum influence, especially with the potential for a new president-elect who aligns more closely with his interests in the coming weeks.”

Xi says China is eager to be a partner and ally to U.S.

By
Asif Shahid
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0
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a presentation ceremony of national medals and honorary titles, at the Great Hall of the People.

Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized that a fruitful partnership between China and the United States presents an opportunity for both nations to support each other’s growth rather than hinder it, as reported by state media on Wednesday.

“China is eager to be a partner and ally to the United States. This collaboration will not only benefit our two nations but also the global community,” Xi stated in a letter addressed to the 2024 annual awards dinner of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, according to a report from CCTV.

In his letter, Xi highlighted that the relationship between China and the U.S. ranks among the most significant bilateral relationships globally, influencing the future and fate of humanity. The two nations have faced tensions over national security issues, ongoing trade disputes, and China’s activities in the South China Sea, as well as increased military exercises near Taiwan. Over the past year, trade relations have deteriorated, focusing on matters such as restrictions on electric vehicles and advanced semiconductor technology.

Xi stated that China has consistently approached its relations with the United States based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation. He emphasized that the achievements of both China and the U.S. present opportunities for one another.

U.S. says it oppose Israeli air strikes in Beirut

By
Asif Shahid
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0
A machinery clears rubble at a site of an Israeli strike, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, in Beirut, Lebanon.

The United States, Israel‘s primary ally, expressed its opposition on Tuesday regarding the extent of the recent air strikes in Beirut, which have contributed to a rising death toll and heightened concerns about a potential escalation involving Iran. According to the U.N. refugee agency, Israeli military evacuation orders are impacting over a quarter of Lebanon, following Israel’s incursions into the southern region aimed at countering Hezbollah.

Several Western nations are advocating for a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, as well as in Gaza. However, the United States maintains its support for Israel, announcing the deployment of an anti-missile system and troops. On Tuesday, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller conveyed that the U.S. had raised its concerns with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government regarding the recent air strikes.

He stated, “We have made it clear to the Israeli government that we have concerns about the scope and nature of the bombing campaign in Beirut over the past few weeks, and we oppose it,” reflecting a more critical stance than previously expressed by Washington.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin communicated with Israeli officials on Sunday, urging them to implement specific measures to address the escalating crisis in Gaza, with a request for action to be taken within 30 days, according to U.S. officials.

Israel has intensified its military operations against Hezbollah following incursions into Lebanon, which included the killing of key Hezbollah leaders, notably veteran secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah, marking a significant setback for the group in recent history.

On Tuesday, during a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed his opposition to a unilateral ceasefire and conveyed his surprise regarding Macron’s proposal to convene a conference focused on Lebanon, as reported by Israeli sources. Netanyahu’s office issued a statement reminding the French President that the establishment of the State of Israel was not a result of a UN resolution but rather a victory achieved during the War of Independence.

The Elysee Palace has not yet responded to requests for comment. The two leaders have previously had disagreements, particularly concerning Macron’s advocacy for halting arms sales to Israel.

PAIN AND CEASEFIRE

As diplomatic negotiations remain stagnant, hostilities persist. On Tuesday, the Israeli military announced the capture of three members of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces, stating they have been transferred to Israel for further investigation. Hezbollah has yet to issue a statement regarding this development.

Naim Qassem, the deputy chief of Hezbollah, indicated earlier on Tuesday that the Iran-supported group intends to inflict “pain” on Israel while simultaneously advocating for a ceasefire.

“Following the ceasefire, based on an indirect agreement, settlers will return to the north, and additional measures will be established,” Qassem mentioned in a recorded address.

Israel has not provided an immediate response, maintaining that its operations in Lebanon are aimed at facilitating the return of tens of thousands of residents who were displaced from northern Israel due to Hezbollah’s assaults. Qassem warned that more Israelis would face displacement, stating that “hundreds of thousands, potentially over two million, will be at risk at any moment, on any day.”

According to the Lebanese health ministry, Israeli airstrikes have resulted in at least 2,350 fatalities over the past year and left nearly 11,000 injured, with more than 1.2 million people displaced. The reported figures do not differentiate between civilians and combatants but include numerous women and children.

The health ministry reported that on Monday, 41 individuals were killed and 124 were injured. Since the onset of the conflict, around 50 Israelis, including both soldiers and civilians, have lost their lives, as per Israeli sources.

These statistics highlight the significant toll on the Lebanese population as Israel seeks to dismantle the infrastructure of the Iran-backed militant group, a conflict that reignited a year ago when Hezbollah began launching rockets at Israel in solidarity with Hamas at the beginning of the Gaza war.

EVACUATION NOTICES

Rema Jamous Imseis, the Middle East director for the U.N. refugee agency, reported that repeated evacuation notices issued by Israel to numerous villages in southern Lebanon have now impacted over a quarter of the nation. “Individuals are responding to these evacuation requests, leaving with very few belongings,” she stated during a briefing in Geneva.

On Monday, Israel intensified its bombing campaign in Lebanon, resulting in the deaths of at least 22 individuals in a northern strike targeting a residence where displaced persons were taking refuge, according to health officials. Many of the victims were women and children from the same family.

Jeremy Laurence, spokesperson for the U.N. human rights office, urged for an investigation into the airstrike, expressing concerns regarding compliance with “the laws of war.” While Israel has not issued a statement regarding the incident, it maintains that it takes extensive measures to minimize civilian casualties.

Israel’s military focus in Lebanon has primarily been on the Bekaa Valley in the east, the outskirts of Beirut, and the southern regions, where U.N. peacekeepers have reported that Israeli fire has repeatedly struck their bases, resulting in injuries to peacekeeping personnel.

China says it will not renounce use of force regarding Taiwan

By
Asif Shahid
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0

China has refrained from committing to renouncing the use of force regarding Taiwan, a stance that targets external interference and a small faction of separatists, as stated by the Taiwan Affairs Office on Wednesday following recent military exercises near the island.

China, which considers Taiwan—governed democratically—as part of its territory, conducted extensive drills around the island on Monday, which it described as a warning against “separatist actions” in light of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s national day address last week.

“We are committed to pursuing the possibility of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and effort,” said Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, during a regular press briefing in Beijing. “However, we will not pledge to renounce the use of force,” he added. This position is specifically directed at the interference from “external forces,” referring to the United States and its allies, as well as the very small group of separatists in Taiwan, rather than the majority of the Taiwanese population, Chen clarified.

Taiwan’s administration firmly denies Beijing’s claims of sovereignty, asserting that the future of the island should be determined solely by its residents. During a press conference in Taipei on Wednesday, Tsai Ming-yen, the Director-General of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, remarked that China’s military exercises have had the opposite effect of what was intended, drawing significant international criticism, particularly from the United States. “The military actions of the Chinese communists have inadvertently strengthened global support for Taiwan,” he stated.

In his speech on October 10, Lai emphasized that China does not have the authority to represent Taiwan, while expressing the island’s readiness to collaborate with Beijing on pressing issues such as climate change. This approach was characterized by Taiwan officials as a blend of firmness and a gesture of goodwill towards China. In response, Chinese spokesperson Chen criticized Lai for maintaining a “stubborn separatist position,” asserting that there was no genuine goodwill present.

Lai has consistently proposed discussions with China but has faced rejection. On Monday, China’s military indicated that additional drills near Taiwan could occur based on the degree of “provocation.” Tsai stated that the government is vigilant regarding potential military actions. “We cannot dismiss any possibilities,” he remarked. Over the last five years, China has routinely deployed warships and military aircraft in the vicinity of Taiwan, nearly every day.

In its daily report on Chinese activities from the past 24 hours, Taiwan’s defense ministry noted the detection of 22 Chinese military aircraft and five naval vessels on Wednesday morning.

China deployed a record 153 military aircraft during war games near Taiwan

By
Asif Shahid
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0

China deployed a record 153 military aircraft during war games near Taiwan, according to the island’s government on Tuesday. They emphasized that such exercises conducted without prior notification pose a threat to regional stability. The one-day “Joint Sword-2024B” drill, which took place on Monday without advance warning, was characterized by China as a response to “separatist actions” following a national day address by Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te that Beijing criticized.

Beijing considers Taiwan, which operates under a democratic government, to be part of its territory, a stance that Taipei firmly disputes, asserting that only the people of Taiwan have the authority to determine their own future. Taiwan’s Premier Cho Jung-tai expressed to reporters in Taipei that “any drills conducted without prior notice will significantly disrupt peace and stability throughout the region.” He added that “China’s military exercises not only impact Taiwan’s immediate vicinity but also have serious implications for international navigation rights and air and sea space, drawing the attention of other nations.”

In its daily report on Chinese military activities around the island over the past 24 hours, Taiwan’s defense ministry noted the detection of 153 military aircraft. By Monday afternoon, they had already indicated that the number of aircraft observed was a one-day record, having initially recorded 125.

A ministry report indicated that 28 of the aircraft had crossed the sensitive median line of the Taiwan Strait, which has historically acted as an unofficial boundary, although China does not acknowledge its existence.

Additional activity was noted in the waters off Taiwan’s southeastern coast, where a significant air base is located, as well as to the southwest, near the northern part of the South China Sea, which includes the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands.

The ministry also reported the presence of 14 Chinese navy vessels and 12 “official” ships, referring to coast guard and similar agency vessels. The drills conducted by China have raised alarms among the United States and its allies, with the Pentagon labeling them as “irresponsible, disproportionate, and destabilizing.”

DRILLS “BACKFIRED” ON CHINA

Taiwan has reported nearly daily instances of Chinese military activity in its vicinity over the past five years, with China conducting at least four significant military exercises since 2022. According to Kuan Bi-ling, the head of Taiwan’s Ocean Affairs Council, which oversees the coast guard, these pressure tactics from China have only strengthened support for Taipei.

“China’s military drills, aimed at exerting pressure on Taiwan and the global community, have instead resulted in increased international unity against China’s expansionist actions,” she stated on her Facebook page. “Relations across the Taiwan Strait have evolved; they are now central to international dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region.”

Taiwan’s justice ministry investigation bureau reported discovering numerous false online claims, including misleading statements about Taiwan’s military response times and allegations that ships transporting liquefied natural gas were compelled to turn back. The bureau described these messages as “cognitive manipulation” orchestrated by “overseas hacking groups” that infiltrated or compromised social media accounts, without directly attributing the actions to China.

During a visit to the Matsu islands, which are under Taiwan’s control and located across from China’s Fuzhou city, a senior official from Taiwan addressed the recent confrontations between the Chinese coast guard and Taiwanese vessels during Monday’s military exercises. Luo Wen-jia, the head of Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation, emphasized that China should reflect on the type of nation it aspires to be.

“Mainland China ought to strive to be a civilized power on the global stage, fostering friendships rather than enmity, and aiming to be respected rather than feared,” he stated.

Despite Beijing’s military drills, most Taiwanese remain unfazed, having lived with the underlying threat of aggression since 1949, when the Republic of China government retreated to the island following its defeat in the civil war against Mao Zedong’s forces.

On the financial front, Taiwan’s benchmark stock index saw a rise of 0.3% on Monday and an increase of 1.4% on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations of impressive third-quarter earnings from TSMC, Asia’s most valuable publicly traded company, set to be announced on Thursday.

U.S. assured Lebanon that Israel will reduce its military operations in Beirut

By
Asif Shahid
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0
Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati speaks during a press conference in Beirut, Lebanon.

U.S. officials have provided assurances to Lebanon that Israel will reduce its military operations in Beirut and its southern suburbs, according to Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, on Tuesday.

Mikati stated in a written statement from his office that during discussions with American officials last week, they received a form of guarantee aimed at de-escalating tensions in these areas. He did not elaborate on the specifics of the assurances but emphasized that Washington is committed to exerting pressure on Israel to achieve a ceasefire.

Since late last week, Israel has refrained from conducting strikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut, following a period of near-daily attacks that resulted in significant destruction and numerous casualties. The area has seen targeted strikes against several high-ranking Hezbollah figures, including the death of leader Hassan Nasrallah in a major attack on September 27.

Mikati also noted that international efforts are ongoing to establish a ceasefire to halt the conflict between the Israeli military and Hezbollah.

Since October of the previous year, hostilities have been ongoing along Lebanon’s southern border with Israel, coinciding with Israel’s military actions in Gaza, which were initiated following Hamas’ assault on southern Israel.

In recent weeks, Israel has significantly intensified its bombing campaign in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s strongholds in southern Lebanon, the southern suburbs of Beirut, and the eastern Bekaa region. Additional regions of Lebanon have also experienced bombardment.

Sweden plans to increase its armed forces by 27,000 personnel by 2030

By
Asif Shahid
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0

Sweden plans to increase its armed forces by approximately 27,000 personnel by 2030, bringing the total to around 115,000, which will include both professional soldiers and conscripts. This expansion is part of a broader initiative to enhance defense spending, as announced by the government on Tuesday.

Last month, the center-right coalition revealed its intention to allocate an additional 170 billion Swedish crowns (approximately $16.41 billion) over the next five years, which will raise defense spending to 2.6% of GDP by 2028, up from the current 2.2%.

Defence Minister Pal Jonson emphasized that this legislation is crucial for improving military resilience and must be implemented swiftly, especially for NATO‘s newest member. He stated, “We must be able to respond more robustly and effectively to the evolving global landscape, particularly in light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” during a press conference. In September, the government announced a 10% increase in defense spending for the next year, amounting to 138 billion crowns, which corresponds to 2.4% of GDP.

The Navy is set to enhance its fleet by upgrading its five Visby class corvettes with air defense systems and will initiate the acquisition of three larger Lulea Class corvettes. The Air Force will receive three additional Globaleye surveillance aircraft, upgraded versions of the JAS Gripen fighter jets, and Black Hawk helicopters.

Meanwhile, the Army plans to increase its inventory of tanks and armored vehicles, expand its drone capabilities, and acquire more Archer air-defense systems, according to government announcements.

Hezbollah says it intends to cause “pain” to Israel but also advocates ceasefire

By
Asif Shahid
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0
Lebanese army soldier stands near destroyed vehicles at a site damaged by an Israeli air strike in the Christian-majority region of Aitou in north Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, stated on Tuesday that the Iran-supported organization intends to cause “pain” to Israel, while simultaneously advocating for a ceasefire amid ongoing hostilities in southern Lebanon. Israel has intensified its military actions against Hezbollah following incursions into the area, which included the killing of key Hezbollah figures, notably veteran secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah last month, marking a significant setback for the group.

Qassem emphasized, “The solution lies in a ceasefire; we are not expressing ourselves from a stance of weakness. If the Israelis reject this, we will persist.” He added that following a ceasefire, based on an indirect agreement, settlers would return to the north, and further measures would be established. Israel has not yet responded, but it maintains that its operations in Lebanon are aimed at ensuring the safe return of the many residents who were displaced from northern Israel due to Hezbollah’s assaults.

Qassem stated that Hezbollah maintains the right to launch attacks throughout Israel, citing similar actions taken by its adversary in Lebanon. He warned that an increasing number of Israelis would face displacement, with “hundreds of thousands, potentially exceeding two million, at risk at any moment, on any day.” He emphasized, “Our focus will be on targeting the Israeli military and its installations.”

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu affirmed that Israel would persist in its offensive against Hezbollah “relentlessly, across all of Lebanon – including Beirut.”

The U.N. refugee agency reported on Tuesday that Israel has issued military evacuation orders impacting over a quarter of Lebanon, following two weeks of Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon aimed at combating Hezbollah. These statistics highlight the significant toll on the Lebanese population as Israel seeks to undermine the Iran-backed militant group and dismantle its infrastructure amid the ongoing conflict.

Rema Jamous Imseis, the U.N. refugee agency’s Middle East director, noted that the latest Israeli evacuation orders affecting 20 villages in southern Lebanon have resulted in over a quarter of the nation being impacted. “People are responding to these evacuation requests, fleeing with almost nothing,” she remarked during a briefing in Geneva. According to the Lebanese government, Israeli airstrikes have resulted in at least 2,309 fatalities over the past year, with more than 1.2 million individuals displaced.

Since late September, the majority of casualties have occurred following Israel’s escalation of its military operations. The reported figures do not differentiate between civilians and combatants. According to Israeli sources, approximately 50 individuals, including both soldiers and civilians, have lost their lives.

On Monday, Israel intensified its bombing campaign in Lebanon, resulting in the deaths of at least 22 people due to an airstrike on a residence in the north, where displaced individuals had sought shelter from earlier strikes in the south, as reported by health officials.

Jeremy Laurence, spokesperson for the U.N. human rights office, indicated that among the 22 fatalities were 12 women and two children, referring to the airstrike in the predominantly Christian town of Aitou. He urged for an investigation into the incident, expressing concerns regarding compliance with “the laws of war.”

Local media reported that rescue teams continued to recover bodies from the debris in Aitou on Tuesday. While Israel has not issued a statement regarding the Aitou airstrike, it maintains that it takes extensive measures to minimize civilian casualties.

CONCERN REGARDING ATTACKS ON PEACEKEEPERS

Israel’s military operations in Lebanon have primarily concentrated on the Bekaa Valley in the east, the suburbs of Beirut, and the southern regions. U.N. peacekeepers have reported that Israeli fire has repeatedly struck their bases, resulting in injuries to some personnel.

According to Israel’s military, approximately 20 projectiles were launched from Lebanon into Israeli territory following sirens in the Haifa Bay and Upper Galilee areas, with some of these projectiles being intercepted.

The extensive displacement of people in Lebanon due to Israel’s military actions has raised fears of renewed sectarian conflict. Lebanon is home to over a dozen religious sects, and its political landscape is heavily influenced by sectarian affiliations. These divisions were a significant factor in the brutal civil war from 1975 to 1990, which claimed around 150,000 lives and involved neighboring countries.

Despite concerns regarding civilian casualties, the U.S. has continued to support Israel in its military engagements. The Pentagon announced that components for an advanced anti-missile system began arriving in Israel on Monday, with plans for it to be fully operational soon, as stated in a Tuesday announcement.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah reignited a year ago when the militant group began launching rockets at Israel in solidarity with Hamas at the onset of the Gaza war.

In the broader context, the Middle East remains vigilant for potential Israeli retaliation against Iran following a missile barrage on October 1, which was a response to Israel’s actions in Lebanon.

Israeli forces clearing landmines and constructing new barriers in Golan Heights

By
Asif Shahid
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0

Israel appears to be preparing to intensify its ground operations against Hezbollah while enhancing its defensive measures. Reports indicate that Israeli forces have been clearing landmines and constructing new barriers along the border between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and a demilitarized zone adjacent to Syria, according to security sources and analysts.

This development implies that Israel may be planning to launch strikes against Hezbollah from a more easterly position along Lebanon’s border, while simultaneously establishing a secure zone that would allow for reconnaissance of the militant group and prevent any potential infiltration, the sources noted.

In addition to the reported demining efforts, sources speaking to Reuters—including a Syrian soldier in southern Syria, a Lebanese security official, and a U.N. peacekeeping representative—provided further insights indicating that Israel is relocating the fence of the demilitarized zone closer to the Syrian side and reinforcing its fortifications in the region. Military operations involving incursions from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and possibly from the demilitarized zone could escalate the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as its ally Hamas, which has already involved Iran and poses a risk of drawing in the United States.

Israel has been engaged in hostilities with Hezbollah, which is supported by Tehran, since the group initiated missile strikes across the Lebanese border in solidarity with Hamas following its lethal assault on southern Israel. This escalation prompted Israel to launch a military operation in Gaza.

In the past month, Israeli airstrikes have inflicted considerable damage on Hezbollah, and the group is now also facing ground assaults from the south and naval bombardments from the Mediterranean to the west.

By expanding its operations to the east, Israel aims to disrupt Hezbollah’s supply routes for arms, many of which traverse Syria, Lebanon’s eastern neighbor and an ally of Iran. Navvar Saban, a conflict analyst at the Istanbul-based Harmoon Center, noted that the military activities in the Golan Heights, a 1,200 square kilometer (460 square mile) plateau that overlooks Lebanon and borders Jordan, seem to be a strategy to “set the stage” for a larger offensive in Lebanon.

The ongoing events in Syria are primarily aimed at advancing Israel’s strategic interests in Lebanon, specifically targeting supply routes, warehouses, and individuals associated with Hezbollah’s supply lines, as stated by the source. Recent reports from a Syrian intelligence officer, a soldier stationed in southern Syria, and three high-ranking Lebanese security officials indicate that Israel has intensified its mine clearance and engineering operations in recent weeks.

FORTIFICATIONS

According to sources, demining efforts have escalated as Israel initiated ground operations on October 1 to combat Hezbollah in the rugged terrain that lies approximately 20 km (12 miles) west of northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Concurrently, Israel has increased its airstrikes in Syria, targeting areas including the capital and the Lebanese border. Reports indicate that Russian military units, which have been supporting Syrian forces in southern Syria, have vacated at least one observation post that overlooks the demilitarized zone, as stated by two Syrian sources and one Lebanese source.

All sources requested anonymity to discuss their observations of Israel’s military activities in the Golan Heights, a region that Israel captured from Syria in 1967. A Syrian soldier stationed in the south reported that Israel is extending the fence that separates the occupied Golan from the demilitarized zone (DMZ) and constructing fortifications near Syria to prevent any potential infiltration should tensions escalate. The soldier noted that Israel seems to be establishing “a buffer zone” within the DMZ. Additionally, a senior Lebanese security source informed Reuters that Israeli forces had excavated a new trench close to the DMZ in October.

Another senior Lebanese security official suggested that the demining operations could enable Israeli troops to “encircle” Hezbollah from the eastern side. For the past fifty years, the DMZ has been monitored by the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which is tasked with overseeing the separation of Israeli and Syrian forces following the 1973 conflict. A U.N. peacekeeping representative in New York confirmed that UNDOF had “recently observed some construction activity being carried out by Israeli military forces in the vicinity of the area of separation,” although further details were not available.

RUSSIA WITHDRAWS FROM OVERLOOK POINT

In response to inquiries regarding demining efforts, the Israeli military stated that it “does not comment on operational plans” and is currently engaged in combat against the terrorist organization Hezbollah to facilitate the safe return of residents in the northern region to their homes.

Requests for comments from UNDOF, Russia, and Syria went unanswered by Reuters. A report submitted to the U.N. Security Council on UNDOF’s activities, dated September 24 and reviewed by Reuters on October 4, noted violations from both sides within the demilitarized zone.

According to two Syrian sources and one Lebanese source, Russian forces have vacated the Tal Hara outpost, which is the highest point in Syria’s southern Daraa governorate and serves as a critical observation point. A Syrian military officer indicated that the withdrawal was a result of agreements with the Israelis aimed at avoiding conflict.

Syrian authorities, aligned with Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’, have attempted to remain neutral amid escalating regional tensions following Hamas’s assault on October 7 of the previous year. In January, Reuters reported that Assad had been advised against taking any supportive actions for Hamas due to threats from Israel. Additionally, Hezbollah has also refrained from increasing its military presence in the Syrian-held Golan Heights.

Iran warns it is capable of targeting U.S. bases and naval vessels

By
Asif Shahid
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0

Brigadier-General Ebrahim Jabbari, an advisor to the chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has stated that any military assistance from the United States to Israel in the event of an attack on Iran will result in retaliation.

“The Americans must understand that if they choose to enter the battlefield against Islamic Iran, our weapons will be capable of targeting their bases, interests, and naval vessels,” Jabbari remarked during an interview with Iran’s Press TV.

He emphasized that the US is “not at all prepared to confront us, the axis of resistance, and the Muslim world.” Nevertheless, Jabbari expressed skepticism about the likelihood of the US engaging in such a “foolish act.”

“While the Americans do support Israel, it is improbable that they would make the mistake of entering into a conflict with Iran. They consistently advise the [Israeli] regime against provoking the Islamic republic.”

Netanyahu informed the U.S. that any military response to Iran will focus solely on military installations

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Asif Shahid
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have informed the United States that any military response to Iran will focus solely on military installations, avoiding oil and nuclear sites, as per a source familiar with the talks.

President Joe Biden, who has publicly expressed his disapproval of targeting Tehran’s nuclear and oil infrastructure, engaged in a confidential phone conversation with Netanyahu last week to discuss Israel’s military strategy. During this discussion, Netanyahu assured Biden that the focus would be on military objectives, according to the source.

The Washington Post was the first to report that Netanyahu had provided Biden with assurances regarding the exclusion of nuclear and oil facilities from potential strikes.

In response to this report, Netanyahu’s office stated that while it values U.S. perspectives, the final decision regarding Iran’s October 1 attack will be guided by Israel’s own national interests. American officials confirmed that they are maintaining close coordination with Israel as it formulates its response.

“We take into account the views of the United States, but our ultimate decisions will be based on our national interests,” Netanyahu’s office communicated via X.

The White House has not addressed Netanyahu’s alleged message regarding the avoidance of nuclear and oil facilities, but it previously characterized last week’s phone call between the leaders as “productive” and “direct.” This conversation marked their first interaction in nearly two months.

Israel’s considerations on how to react to Iran occur during a period of heightened tensions in the ongoing conflict, which has escalated from Gaza into Lebanon. White House officials are attempting to restrict Israel’s response to the recent missile attacks, aiming to avert a broader conflict.

Nevertheless, President Biden and other senior officials have affirmed Israel’s right to retaliate and indicated that they are in close communication with their Israeli counterparts as they contemplate their options.

A military strike on oil fields, which could lead to a surge in energy prices, would be particularly problematic just weeks before the U.S. elections, according to officials. Additionally, an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites could provoke a full-scale regional war, a scenario Biden is keen to avoid.

U.S. officials anticipate a restrained response from Israel, believing that the nation is not inclined to escalate the conflict with Iran. However, Biden’s influence over Netanyahu has been limited as he faces challenges in curbing the violence in Gaza and preventing a wider war.

Russia says treaty with North Korea establishes “strategic cooperation”

By
Asif Shahid
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0
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

Russia announced on Tuesday that a treaty signed with North Korea earlier this year establishes “strategic cooperation” across various sectors. However, officials refrained from elaborating on the implementation of a mutual defense clause included in the agreement.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un formalized the treaty during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June, which encompasses a mutual assistance provision obligating both nations to support each other against external threats.

When questioned about the implications of this agreement, particularly whether it could involve Russia supporting North Korea in a potential conflict on the Korean peninsula or vice versa in a confrontation with Western nations, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the treaty’s language was “quite unambiguous” and did not require further explanation. Peskov emphasized that the pact signifies “truly strategic deep cooperation in all areas, including security.”

Rising tensions on the Korean peninsula have been evident, particularly after North Korea destroyed sections of inter-Korean roads and railways on its side of the heavily fortified border, which led South Korea’s military to issue warning shots.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy recently accused North Korea of sending personnel to support Russia’s military efforts, stating that his intelligence agencies informed him about “the actual involvement of North Korea in the war” in Ukraine. The United States has claimed that North Korea has provided Russia with ballistic missiles and ammunition. Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied these allegations of arms transfers but have expressed intentions to strengthen their military cooperation, which may involve joint exercises. Last week, Peskov dismissed the claims regarding North Korean troops in Ukraine as misinformation.

When questioned about whether a forthcoming partnership treaty between Russia and Iran might incorporate a mutual defense clause, Peskov responded on Tuesday, “No. We will discuss its content once it is finalized.”

India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in Pakistan for SCO meeting

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Asif Shahid
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0
India's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar speaks during a press conference.

Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar arrived in Pakistan on Tuesday, marking the first visit of its kind in nearly ten years for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) governments, with the capital city under strict security measures.

Jaishankar joined nearly a dozen leaders at the gathering in Islamabad, which is set to culminate in a main event on Wednesday. This visit is significant as it has been almost a decade since a foreign minister from India, Pakistan’s long-standing rival, has traveled to the country, reflecting the ongoing tensions between the two nuclear nations.

Both countries have indicated that no bilateral discussions are scheduled. The SCO meeting, a political and security alliance established in 2001 by Russia and China, represents the most prominent event hosted by Pakistan in recent years. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is already in attendance, along with seven other prime ministers from member and observer states, including Russia’s Mikhail Mishustin, who are also expected to participate in person.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) also comprises Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. On Tuesday, the prime ministers of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan—Akylbek Zhaparov, Qohir Rasulzoda, and Olzhas Bektenov—arrived for the event. Additionally, the prime ministers of Belarus and Mongolia were anticipated to attend.

The primary SCO meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, while Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is set to host a welcome dinner on Tuesday. According to Pakistan’s Foreign Office, Sharif will also engage in bilateral discussions during the event.

The agenda for the SCO meeting will focus on enhancing cooperation in economic and trade sectors. Analysts suggest that the organization aims to diminish Western influence in the region.

In preparation for the summit, the Pakistani government declared a three-day public holiday in Islamabad, leading to the closure of schools and businesses, alongside the deployment of significant police and paramilitary forces. The army has been tasked with ensuring security in the capital’s Red Zone, which houses the parliament and a diplomatic enclave, and where the majority of SCO meetings will occur, as stated by the interior ministry.

Security concerns have been heightened leading up to the summit, particularly following the murder of two Chinese engineers on October 6, attributed to the separatist Baloch Liberation Army, and the deaths of 21 miners in an attack on October 11, for which no group has taken responsibility.

Russia-China military discussion on strengthening partnership

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Asif Shahid
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0

Russia and China engaged in significant defense and military discussions aimed at strengthening their partnership, as stated by Russia‘s defense minister on Tuesday. This meeting reflects the deepening of their “no limits” alliance and an increased critique of U.S. attempts to expand its influence in Asia.

According to a post on the Russian defense ministry’s Telegram channel, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov noted that the military sectors of both nations share similar views on global developments and have a mutual understanding of the necessary actions in the current context.

Belousov reported that he had “very substantive” discussions with Zhang Youxia, the vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission. Following the meeting, China’s Defense Ministry expressed a desire to enhance and broaden military relations while ensuring ongoing high-level communications. Belousov’s trip to Beijing coincided with China’s military’s announcement of potential further actions regarding Taiwan, following a series of military exercises intended as a warning against “separatist acts,” which were met with disapproval from both Taiwanese and U.S. officials.

In February 2022, China and Russia established a “no limits” partnership during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing, just weeks prior to the onset of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which marked the most lethal land conflict in Europe since World War II.

In May of this year, Putin and Xi Jinping announced a “new era” of collaboration between the two nations, positioning themselves as formidable challengers to U.S. dominance, which they accuse of creating global disorder reminiscent of a Cold War mentality.

Belousov noted that Putin and Xi have committed to enhancing their “strategic partnership,” although he did not elaborate on specifics. He expressed confidence that significant and impactful decisions are forthcoming.

Recently, Russia reaffirmed its support for China on various Asian matters, including criticism of the U.S. efforts to expand its influence and what they describe as “deliberate attempts” to escalate tensions regarding Taiwan.

The U.S. has accused China of aiding Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine by supplying dual-use goods, such as microelectronics, that could be utilized in weapon production. In response, China has maintained that it has not supplied arms to any party and insists that normal trade with Russia should continue without interruption.

What did China achieve from military exercises around Taiwan?

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Asif Shahid
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0
Members of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) take part in the "Joint Sword-2024B" military drills around Taiwan, from an undisclosed location in this screenshot from a handout video released by the PLA Eastern Theatre Command.

China characterized its recent military exercises near Taiwan as a cautionary measure against “separatist actions,” indicating that further drills may be forthcoming. This announcement has elicited strong reactions from both the Taiwanese government and the United States.

While these exercises appeared to be shorter in duration compared to earlier ones, they were marked by rapid simulated assaults and the mobilization of naval and aerial forces. The last significant military maneuvers took place in May, coinciding with the inauguration of Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s new president.

Here is an overview of China’s strategic objectives behind this week’s exercises and the new elements involved.

Blockade

The Chinese military announced that a segment of its recent exercises focused on what it termed a “key port blockade,” effectively cutting off Taiwan’s maritime supply routes for trade, food, and energy. This maneuver was intended to demonstrate China’s capability to halt energy imports, particularly at its terminals receiving liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to military expert Zhang Chi from China’s National Defence University, as reported by the state-affiliated Global Times.

Zhang emphasized that the People’s Liberation Army aims to showcase its ability to obstruct Taiwan’s energy resource imports, which could significantly affect the island’s economy and society. Foreign military attaches and analysts are closely monitoring this aspect of the drills, as such a strategy could exert pressure on Taiwan and isolate it in the lead-up to a potential full-scale invasion.

On Monday, Taiwan’s state-owned energy firm CPC announced that its LNG imports remained stable, refuting online claims suggesting otherwise as misinformation. Su Tzu-yun, director of defense strategy and resources at Taiwan’s leading military think tank, the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, commented, “This situation involved a unique element, referred to as quarantine or blockade, during which they honed their blockading skills.”

China is moving nearer to Taiwan.

A map released by China’s military indicates that the designated drill zones are now situated closer to Taiwan compared to earlier exercises, with all zones, for the first time, encompassing areas within Taiwan’s 24-mile (39-km) contiguous zone. “The announced drill zones are increasingly encroaching upon Taiwan island, and they all fall within the 24-mile zone,” stated Ma Chen-kun, a military expert from Taiwan’s National Defence University, during a forum in Taipei on Monday.

A more engaged coast guard

China’s coast guard, now the largest in the world, played a more active role in Monday’s exercises, surrounding the Taiwan-controlled Matsu islands adjacent to the Chinese coast and operating on both sides of Taiwan’s mainland.

Taiwanese officials assert that the deployment of the coast guard is part of a “grey zone” strategy that avoids outright conflict while seeking to assert China’s claim to manage and control the Taiwan Strait.

Analysts indicate that China’s coast guard maintains a nearly continuous presence near Taiwan and extends into the contested South China Sea. Taiwan remains particularly cautious of Chinese coast guard attempts to board its civilian vessels under the guise of law enforcement, as such actions could provoke a serious response, according to Deputy Chief Hsieh Ching-chin.

Collin Koh from Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies noted that it was “unprecedented” for so many coast guard vessels to be patrolling around the island simultaneously. He suggested that this development could signal a new standard for Beijing’s grey zone tactics against Taiwan.

Propaganda

Chinese military exercises have previously been accompanied by the dissemination of videos depicting animated missile strikes on Taiwan. In a notable departure this time, a caricature of Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te was presented, featuring exaggerated devil-like ears, which a security source in Taiwan described as an unusually personal affront to a leader already labeled a “separatist” by Beijing.

Additionally, China released two less polished videos featuring navy personnel discussing weather conditions and their positions near Taiwan’s key ports of Keelung and Kaohsiung.

Taiwanese television networks include these videos in their routine coverage of military drills, while the Taiwanese government characterizes them as elements of “cognitive warfare” aimed at undermining public confidence in its military capabilities.

Infiltration

Following the commencement of military exercises, Taiwan’s coast guard reported the apprehension of an individual from China who was attempting to reach one of the heavily fortified Taiwan-controlled islets near Xiamen, China, using a rubber boat.

The coast guard indicated that this incident may be linked to China’s “grey zone” operations, which pose a threat to Taiwan’s offshore islands amid the ongoing drills.

Israeli forces intensified their operations around Jabalia, 40 Palestinians killed

By
Asif Shahid
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0

Israeli military operations resulted in the deaths of at least 40 Palestinians throughout the Gaza Strip as Israeli forces intensified their operations around Jabalia in the northern region on Tuesday, engaging in intense confrontations with Hamas fighters.

According to Palestinian health officials, Israeli fire claimed the lives of at least 11 individuals near Al-Falouja in Jabalia, which is the largest of Gaza’s eight historic refugee camps. Additionally, 10 people were killed in Bani Suhaila, located in eastern Khan Younis, when an Israeli missile struck a residential building.

Earlier that day, an Israeli airstrike leveled three homes in the Sabra neighborhood of Gaza City, with local civil emergency services reporting the recovery of two bodies from the debris. Efforts were ongoing to locate 12 other individuals believed to have been inside the homes during the attack. Furthermore, five additional casualties were reported when a house was hit in the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza.

Jabalia has been the target of an Israeli offensive for over 10 days, with military forces returning to areas in the north that had previously experienced significant bombardment during the ongoing year-long conflict.

Concerns have been raised among Palestinians and U.N. agencies regarding Israel’s intentions to evacuate residents from the northern part of the densely populated enclave, a claim that Israel has refuted. The United Nations human rights office reported on Tuesday that the Israeli military seems to be “completely isolating North Gaza from the remainder of the Gaza Strip.”

“During this period of intense conflict and evacuation orders in northern Gaza, families are enduring unimaginable fear, loss of loved ones, confusion, and exhaustion. It is essential that individuals are able to escape safely, without encountering additional threats,” stated Adrian Zimmerman, head of the ICRC sub-delegation in Gaza.

“Many individuals, including the sick and disabled, are unable to evacuate and are entitled to protection under international humanitarian law. All necessary measures must be taken to ensure their safety. Every displaced person has the right to return home securely,” he emphasized.

The Israeli military has now surrounded the Jabalia camp and deployed tanks in the adjacent towns of Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun, with the stated objective of eliminating Hamas fighters who are attempting to regroup in those areas.

The Israeli military has instructed residents to evacuate their homes and seek safety in southern Gaza. However, Palestinian and U.N. officials have stated that there are no safe areas within Gaza. Israeli authorities clarified that the evacuation orders were intended to distinguish between Hamas fighters and civilians, denying any systematic effort to remove civilians from Jabalia or other northern regions.

The armed wing of Hamas reported that its fighters were engaged in intense confrontations with Israeli forces in and around Jabalia. Zimmerman emphasized the need to protect health facilities in the northern region, noting that hospitals are struggling to deliver medical care.

According to Gaza’s health ministry, the military has ordered the evacuation of the three operational hospitals, but medical personnel have expressed their commitment to continue providing services despite being overwhelmed by the increasing number of casualties.

On Monday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed strong condemnation regarding the high number of civilian casualties in northern Gaza. This region is inhabited by more than half of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, and many have been compelled to evacuate their homes due to intense bombardment during the initial phase of Israel’s military operation.

Current estimates from the United Nations indicate that approximately 400,000 individuals remain in the area. The offensive was initiated by Israel in response to a Hamas attack on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 people and the abduction of around 250 individuals to Gaza, according to Israeli reports. As per health authorities in Gaza, over 42,000 Palestinians have lost their lives in the ongoing military campaign.

Kremlin retracted its previous statements about Saudi membership of the BRICS

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Asif Shahid
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0
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

On Tuesday, the Kremlin retracted its previous statements that referred to Saudi Arabia as a member of the BRICS group, leaving uncertainty regarding the country’s participation in the upcoming BRICS summit in Russia next week.

While Saudi Arabia has received an invitation to join BRICS, it has not yet completed the formal accession process. Last week, however, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov had identified Saudi Arabia as a member and indicated that its foreign minister would be present at the summit in Kazan.

When asked to clarify Saudi Arabia’s position within BRICS, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated, “The summit is set to occur, and we will provide further details regarding Saudi Arabia’s representation, including whether it will participate in this summit, and we will draw conclusions from that.”

An Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear installations may have unintended consequences

By
Asif Shahid
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0
The Osirak research reactor site in Iraq after it was bombed by Israel in 1981.

Since Iran‘s missile strike on Israel on October 1, which was a reaction to the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, there has been considerable speculation regarding Israel’s potential retaliation. Some analysts propose that Israel might target Iranian oil facilities, while others suggest strikes on its nuclear sites.

The Biden administration appears to be against both of these options; however, it has authorized the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system and U.S. troops to Israel, likely in preparation for a possible Iranian counteraction following an Israeli attack.

In contrast, former President Donald Trump, a Republican presidential candidate, has encouraged Israel to take preemptive action against Iran’s nuclear capabilities. His son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has echoed this sentiment.

While Trump, Kushner, and other strong supporters of Israel advocate for military action against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, they may not fully grasp the repercussions of such an attack, reminiscent of Israel’s 1981 strike on Iraq’s Osiraq nuclear reactor.

The bombing of the French-built Osiraq facility not only forced Iraq’s previously peaceful nuclear program underground but also spurred Saddam Hussein to intensify efforts toward developing nuclear weapons. A similar aggressive approach against Iran’s nuclear ambitions could yield comparable outcomes.

A ‘pre-emptive’ strike

Iraq’s nuclear program began in the 1960s when the USSR constructed a small nuclear research reactor and provided technical expertise. In the 1970s, Iraq acquired a larger reactor from France, known as Osiraq, and significantly advanced its civilian nuclear initiatives with substantial support from French and Italian sources.

The French government implemented technical safeguards to prevent any potential dual-use of the reactor and communicated these measures to the United States, Israel’s closest ally. As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iraq underwent regular inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and was not, contrary to Israel’s claims, on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon.

Despite this, the Israeli government, facing increasing domestic unrest and the threat of electoral defeat in the upcoming legislative elections, opted to carry out a “pre-emptive” strike.

On June 7, 1981, Israeli F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, equipped with US technology, conducted an airstrike on the Osiraq reactor after refueling mid-flight. The attack resulted in the complete destruction of the reactor and the deaths of three Iraqi civilians and one French engineer.

This military action stirred nationalist sentiments among Israelis, contributing to Prime Minister Menachem Begin’s narrow electoral victory just three weeks later.

A collection of declassified US documents made public in 2021 reveals that Israel’s military action did not dismantle Iraq’s nuclear program; instead, it intensified Saddam Hussein’s resolve to obtain a nuclear weapon.

The attack also inspired a greater number of Iraqi scientists to join the national nuclear initiative. As noted by Iraqi nuclear scientist Jafar Dhia Jafar in his memoir, “the Israeli bombing of Tammuz I [i.e. Osiraq] had infuriated many, and they were practically forming a line to participate in ending the Jewish state’s monopoly of nuclear weapons in the Middle East.” The expertise of these scientists became more crucial to Saddam than the reactor he lost in the strike.

In the subsequent years, Saddam’s regime shifted its nuclear activities underground and sought assistance from nuclear-armed nations like Pakistan to develop capabilities for producing a nuclear weapon. Efforts were also made to reconstruct the destroyed reactor.

These initiatives faced significant setbacks only in the early 1990s due to the first Gulf War, which severely damaged Iraqi infrastructure, followed by sanctions that depleted the country’s financial resources.

The implications of a military strike on Iran

In recent years, several Iranian nuclear scientists have been targeted and killed. The most notable incident occurred in November 2020, when Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a prominent nuclear physicist and senior figure in Iran’s nuclear program, was assassinated in an ambush near Tehran. Iran has attributed this and other similar attacks to Israel.

While these targeted killings may have eliminated key individuals, they have simultaneously motivated a new wave of Iranians to engage in nuclear science, fostering a sense of “nuclear nationalism” in response to the ongoing threats to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The developments following October 7, 2023, have intensified this sentiment. A survey conducted between February and May of this year revealed that public support for a peaceful nuclear program in Iran remains exceptionally high, with an increasing number of citizens now advocating for the country to pursue nuclear weapons. Approximately 69 percent of those surveyed expressed their support for this direction.

It is evident that Israel’s actions are only reinforcing Iran’s resolve to advance its nuclear program. A military strike on any of Iran’s nuclear facilities would likely strengthen this resolve even further. Drawing parallels with Iraq, such an action could push Iran’s nuclear efforts underground and expedite its pursuit of nuclear weaponry.

Currently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself in a position reminiscent of his predecessor, Menachem Begin. He is at the helm of a government facing significant criticism for various shortcomings, including the events of October 7, 2023, and is eager to demonstrate a “victory” to the Israeli populace.

However, Netanyahu’s current military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as potential actions against Iran, are unlikely to yield a true victory for Israel. His approach is likely to breed resentment in these regions and throughout the Middle East, ultimately aiding Iran and its allies in quickly restoring any capabilities lost due to aggressive Israeli actions.

 

India and Canada expelled diplomats: What to know and what comes next?

By
Asif Shahid
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0
The Indian High Commission building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

A longstanding diplomatic conflict between India and Canada has resurfaced, as both nations have announced the expulsion of diplomats following allegations that Indian government agents engaged in actions jeopardizing the safety of Canadians.

The latest escalation began on Monday when India’s Ministry of External Affairs revealed it had received a “diplomatic communication” from Canada, suggesting that Indian diplomats were being regarded as “persons of interest” in an ongoing investigation in Canada.

Relations between New Delhi and Ottawa deteriorated significantly last year after the Canadian government disclosed it was probing a potential connection between Indian government agents and the assassination of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canada’s west coast.

New Delhi has categorically denied any involvement in Nijjar’s death, asserting on Monday that it “strongly” dismissed Canada’s “preposterous imputations” and announced the withdrawal of its diplomats and officials from Canada.

Shortly thereafter, the Canadian government stated that federal police had found evidence indicating that Indian agents were involved in activities posing a threat to public safety in Canada, leading to the expulsion of six Indian diplomats.

The ongoing diplomatic dispute has escalated, with significant statements from both Canada and India regarding the situation. Here’s a summary of the developments and potential implications:

What has Canada stated?

  • On Monday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) had discovered “clear and compelling evidence” indicating that agents of the Indian government have been involved in activities that pose a threat to public safety.
  • Trudeau highlighted that these activities include covert information-gathering methods, coercive actions aimed at South Asian Canadians, and participation in numerous violent incidents, including murder. During a press conference, he emphasized the seriousness of these allegations.
  • Earlier that day, the RCMP reported evidence linking Indian government agents to “serious criminal activity in Canada,” which encompasses connections to homicides, violent acts, and interference in democratic processes.
  • The RCMP stated that this evidence was presented to officials from the Government of India, urging their collaboration to mitigate the violence and requesting joint efforts from law enforcement agencies to tackle these issues.
  • In response, Canada’s Global Affairs department announced the expulsion of six Indian diplomats and consular officials, citing their involvement in a targeted campaign against Canadian citizens linked to the Indian government. Among those expelled was India’s high commissioner to Canada.
  • Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly explicitly connected the expelled officials to the case of Nijjar, stating, “The decision to expel these individuals was made with great consideration and only after the RCMP gathered ample, clear and concrete evidence which identified six individuals as persons of interest in the Nijjar case.”

What has India said?

  • India’s Ministry of External Affairs has strongly dismissed the allegations made by Canada, asserting in a statement on Monday that there is a “deliberate strategy of smearing India for political gains” under the guise of an investigation. The ministry emphasized that the Canadian government has failed to provide any evidence to support its claims, despite numerous requests from India.
  • Furthermore, the ministry indicated that it had summoned the Canadian charge d’affaires in India to express that the “unfounded targeting of the Indian High Commissioner and other diplomats and officials in Canada is entirely unacceptable.” It stated, “We lack confidence in the current Canadian Government’s ability to ensure the safety of our personnel. Consequently, the Government of India has opted to withdraw the High Commissioner and other affected diplomats and officials,” while also noting that New Delhi “reserves the right to take additional measures” in response.
  • In a reciprocal action, the ministry declared the expulsion of six Canadian diplomats from India, including the acting high commissioner, and has given them until the end of the day on October 19 to exit the country.

How did the relationship between India and Canada deteriorate to this level?

Tensions between the two nations escalated dramatically in September 2023 when Prime Minister Trudeau revealed that Canadian authorities were probing “credible allegations of a potential link” between agents of the Indian government and the assassination of Nijjar, a Canadian citizen. Nijjar was shot dead on June 18, 2023, outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, British Columbia, where he held the position of president. He was a prominent figure in the Khalistan movement, which advocates for a separate Sikh state in India’s Punjab region.

Although Sikh separatism has largely subsided within India, the Indian government perceives it as a significant threat and has urged Western countries to take action against Khalistan movement leaders in their communities abroad. India categorically rejected the allegations of its involvement in Nijjar’s murder, labeling them as “absurd.” Additionally, it accused Nijjar of engaging in “terrorism,” a claim that his supporters vehemently denied.

Following the initial accusations from Canada, both countries recalled their diplomats, and India suspended diplomatic services for Canadians. Tensions flared again in May 2024 when Canadian police announced the arrest of three Indian nationals linked to Nijjar’s murder. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police indicated they were also “investigating if there are any ties to the government of India.” Later that month, a fourth Indian national was arrested and charged in connection with the case.

In response to these developments, New Delhi dismissed the situation in Canada, with External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar asserting that Canada had a “political compulsion” to blame India.

What comes next?

The future actions of India, as indicated by its foreign ministry on Monday, remain uncertain in light of Canada’s allegations. Should India decide to respond, the nature of those actions is yet to be determined.

Stephanie Carvin, a political analyst and professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, emphasized the gravity of Canada’s recent claims, suggesting they could further strain diplomatic relations with India. She remarked that this situation places Canada in a challenging position.

“We are witnessing a global trend where nations such as the European Union, the United States, and Australia are seeking to strengthen their ties with India. This situation may alienate us from our other allies,” she stated in an interview.

Carvin also highlighted the practical implications, noting that Canada hosts a significant South Asian community, with many Indian students residing in the country. “These Indian nationals require consular services and diplomatic support here,” she pointed out.

Over the past year, Sikh Canadians have expressed concerns regarding perceived interference from the Indian state. The World Sikh Organization of Canada, a nonprofit advocating for the Sikh community, expressed support for the Canadian government’s recent announcement and called for the complete prosecution of all individuals implicated in the killing of Nijjar, including Indian diplomats.

The organization stated, “The ongoing foreign interference by the Government of India in Canada, along with its history of targeting Sikhs here, is only now gaining public attention, although it has been a reality for Sikhs for the past forty years.”

What is THAAD? The powerful US anti-missile defense system is being sent to Israel

By
Asif Shahid
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0

The THAAD defense system represents one of the most formidable anti-missile capabilities within the US military arsenal, designed to intercept ballistic missiles at distances ranging from 150 to 200 kilometers (93 to 124 miles) and boasting an impressive success rate in testing scenarios.

Known as Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense, THAAD employs a sophisticated array of radar technology and interceptors. It is unique among US missile defense systems in its ability to target and neutralize short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, whether they are within or outside the atmosphere during their terminal flight phase.

THAAD interceptors operate on a kinetic principle, meaning they eliminate incoming threats through direct collision rather than detonation near the target.

As reported by the Congressional Research Service, the US military maintains seven THAAD batteries, each equipped with six mobile launchers, each capable of carrying eight interceptors, along with a robust radar system and essential fire control and communication components.

A highly valued missile defense battery is being sent to Israel to enhance its capabilities in intercepting incoming missiles, particularly in light of Iran’s significant attacks on April 13 and October 1, as reported by the Pentagon. However, the effective operation of this system requires the presence of US personnel on the ground.

The Pentagon has announced that approximately 100 US Army troops will be deployed to Israel to manage the battery. A source in Tehran informed CNN that Iran has warned the US of potential retaliation against any further Israeli strikes.

The THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system is integrated into a comprehensive command and control and battle management framework, allowing it to coordinate with various US missile defense systems, including Aegis, which is typically deployed on US Navy vessels, and Patriot systems designed for shorter-range threats.

The deployment of THAAD underscores the Biden administration’s commitment to strengthening Israel’s defense, especially given that other missile defense systems are more widely available than THAAD.

While THAAD can be rapidly transported by US Air Force cargo planes such as the C-17 and C-5, the Pentagon has not specified when the system will become operational in Israel.

Why THAAD is so accurate?

The accuracy of THAAD is primarily attributed to its radar system, known as the Army Navy/Transportable Radar Surveillance radar, or AN/TPY-2. This radar can be deployed alongside the missile battery or can be stationed on US Navy vessels and other military installations. It has the capability to detect missiles through two operational modes. In its forward-based mode, it is designed to identify and track targets at distances of up to 3,000 kilometers (1,865 miles). In terminal mode, it is oriented upward to detect targets as they descend, as noted by the Missile Defense Project. Notably, Iran is situated approximately 1,700 kilometers (1,100 miles) from Israel.

According to CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton, a former US Air Force colonel, THAAD would not operate in isolation when defending Israel and could serve as an additional deterrent against potential attacks.

Leighton stated that once implemented, it will enhance the current Israeli air and missile defense systems. According to the Missile Threat Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, production models of the THAAD system have consistently succeeded in intercepting incoming threats during testing.

Israel’s anti-missile systems

Israel has established several anti-missile systems aimed at intercepting incoming threats.

David’s Sling, a collaborative effort between Israel’s RAFAEL Advanced Defense Systems and the American defense firm Raytheon, employs Stunner and SkyCeptor kinetic interceptors capable of targeting objects up to 300 kilometers (186 miles) away, as reported by the Missile Threat Project.

Above David’s Sling are the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, which have been developed in partnership with the United States.

The Arrow 2 system utilizes fragmentation warheads to neutralize incoming ballistic missiles during their terminal phase, targeting them as they descend toward their objectives in the upper atmosphere, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

In contrast, the Arrow 3 system employs hit-to-kill technology to intercept ballistic missiles in space, similar to the capabilities of THAAD.

At the lower end of the threat spectrum, the Iron Dome defense system addresses projectiles aimed at Israel, consisting of 10 batteries, each equipped with three to four maneuverable missile launchers.

This is not the first instance of the United States deploying a THAAD battery to Israel; one was sent in 2019 for a training exercise.

THAAD deployments have also drawn significant attention from U.S. adversaries, particularly China.

The installation of a THAAD battery in South Korea in 2017, in response to escalating ballistic missile threats from North Korea, faced strong resistance from Beijing. Analysts indicated that China was concerned the advanced radar system could be utilized for surveillance of activities deep within its territory.

Additionally, the United States has positioned THAAD in Guam to safeguard essential military installations on the Pacific island against potential ballistic missile threats from either North Korea or China.

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