As global leaders convene for two significant summits in South America in the coming days, the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House is expected to cast a long shadow.
Many will be contemplating the implications of Trump’s “America First” policy on the global economy and ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
China, in particular, is preparing for potentially strained relations with the United States. For Chinese leader Xi Jinping, however, the upcoming events and the inauguration of a Chinese-funded megaport in Peru present a chance to further Beijing’s interests in light of Trump’s electoral success.
A primary goal for China is to create divisions between the US and its allies while positioning itself as a stable alternative leader.
The effectiveness of Beijing’s strategy at the APEC summit of 21 Asia-Pacific economies in Peru this week, followed by the Group of 20 (G20) meeting in Brazil next week, could be crucial for China as it navigates the expected challenges ahead.
During his first term, Trump initiated a trade and technology conflict with China, framing the nation as a competitor to the US—a stance that has been largely continued by his successor, Joe Biden, who has further aggravated Beijing by aligning US allies with his China strategy.
With the prospect of Trump’s second term potentially leading to increased tariffs and heightened uncertainty, Xi and his team will be strategically adjusting their diplomatic approach during the upcoming meetings.
Among the leaders anticipated to participate in both summits are President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to join the G20.
Xi’s arrival in Peru on Thursday for a state visit prior to the summits highlighted his strategic messaging. During this visit, he and President Dina Boluarte participated via video link in the inauguration of a Chinese-funded megaport, signaling Beijing’s commitment to nations in the Global South.
This $3.5 billion project, developed by China’s COSCO Shipping in a bay north of Lima, is intended to serve as a trade gateway connecting Latin America to Asia, as reported by Chinese state media.
“It is logical for Chinese officials to leverage these significant events to influence current international narratives,” noted Li Mingjiang, an associate professor of international relations at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University. “Time is limited before January 2025.”
“great global opportunities.”
Trump has suggested imposing tariffs exceeding 60% on all Chinese imports to the United States and may expand upon the Biden administration’s policies that limit Beijing’s access to critical high technology. Additionally, he seems inclined to appoint individuals with a hardline stance on China to his cabinet, reportedly considering Congressman Mike Waltz for the role of national security adviser and Marco Rubio for secretary of state, as per CNN’s coverage.
Last week, Xi’s congratulatory message to Trump seemed to reflect some of Beijing’s apprehensions. The Chinese leader cautioned that both nations “will benefit from cooperation and lose from confrontation,” according to statements from China’s Foreign Ministry.
Xi is likely to emphasize this sentiment during a concluding meeting with Biden, which senior U.S. officials have indicated will occur on Saturday in Lima. Observers believe that Beijing intends to use this meeting to convey its desire for communication and stability in bilateral relations.
However, as uncertainties regarding the future of U.S.-China relations persist, Beijing views maintaining strong ties with a diverse array of countries and ensuring unrestricted access to their markets as essential for safeguarding its economy. This is particularly crucial as China faces challenges such as slowing economic growth, diminished consumer demand, and rising unemployment.
From Beijing’s perspective, the unpredictability surrounding Trump presents an opportunity to undermine the growing collaboration that had developed between the U.S. and its allies under Biden in areas such as trade and security, aimed at countering the perceived threat posed by China.
Leaders who previously collaborated with Biden are likely to observe with caution how Trump, known for his unpredictable and transactional diplomatic approach, may reshape their relationships once he assumes office in January.
The president-elect has indicated plans to impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from all nations, including close allies. He has urged U.S. partners in Asia to contribute more towards the costs of hosting American military personnel and has suggested that he would allow Russia to act freely towards any NATO member that fails to meet its obligations.
China aims to convey that aligning entirely with the United States may not be prudent and encourages consideration of collaboration with China, according to Liu Dongshu, an assistant professor of international affairs at the City University of Hong Kong.
In recent months, Beijing has taken measures to strengthen its ties with key allies and partners of the U.S., such as granting visa-free access to citizens from several European nations and reinstating a trilateral summit with Japan and South Korea.
In October, Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Modi held their first formal bilateral meeting in five years, following an agreement on military disengagement along their disputed border, marking a crucial step toward reducing tensions.
Earlier this month, Chinese Premier Li Qiang assured leaders and executives at a trade expo that China would further open its market to foster “great global opportunities.”
A challenging endeavor?
During the upcoming summit meetings in Lima and Rio de Janeiro, Xi and his team are expected to continue delivering these messages to U.S. partners, while also aiming to position China as a prominent power committed to global stability.
“For the G20 and APEC, China’s message will be ‘There is significant uncertainty ahead, but China represents certainty and will remain dedicated to peace and development,'” stated Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.
However, analysts suggest that Chinese leaders will encounter significant challenges in gaining the trust of U.S. partners in both Europe and Asia.
Countries have observed with concern as Xi has intensified his assertiveness in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan, while also supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin in his conflict with Ukraine, regardless of any tensions with the incoming US president.
However, they may find themselves compelled to engage more with China if Trump decides to replicate his previous administration’s approach of withdrawing from organizations such as the World Health Organization or international accords like the Paris climate agreement.
Such actions would further Xi’s long-term objective of transforming the international liberal order, which he perceives as disproportionately favoring the US, positioning China as a viable alternative leader. This vision has garnered significant backing in the Global South, where initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative have already enhanced China’s influence.
“If the US is stepping back from the global framework, it creates an opportunity for another nation to take its place – and China is among the few countries with both the capability and the desire to occupy that role,” stated Liu in Hong Kong.
Nonetheless, China’s ability to do so is contingent upon the robustness of its economy and its response to potential increased pressure from the US, he noted.
Consequently, Beijing may adopt a cautious approach in its diplomatic engagements and broader international strategies in the near future, according to Sun in Washington.
“Beijing is indeed concerned about Trump’s potential backlash and the impact it could have on China’s interests at a bilateral level,” she remarked. “China will need to navigate its pursuit of global leadership while considering its relationship with the US, ensuring it does not provoke Trump unnecessarily.”
