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Estonia advocates for reforms in maritime law to enhance the protection of undersea infrastructure

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Finnish Border Guard's ship Turva and oil tanker Eagle S sail on the sea outside the Porkkalanniemi, Finland.

Centuries-old international maritime law requires modernization to prohibit damage to undersea infrastructure, including cables and pipelines, according to the Estonian justice minister in a statement to Reuters following recent damage to cables linking Estonia and Finland.

On Thursday, Finnish authorities detained a vessel suspected of carrying Russian oil in the Baltic Sea, believed to have caused the disruption of an undersea power cable between Finland and Estonia the previous day, as well as damaging four internet lines.

In response, the Estonian navy took measures on Friday to safeguard a parallel power line. The Estonian government plans to petition the International Maritime Organization by February to revise maritime law, which it argues currently lacks provisions addressing underwater damage.

Justice Minister Liisa Pakosta emphasized the need for the international maritime community to update or reform maritime law. She noted that clarifying regulations regarding how nations should respond to underwater damage would help “minimize” the risk of disputes escalating to international courts.

Pakosta pointed out that existing maritime law, some of which dates back centuries, specifically addresses issues like piracy and unauthorized broadcasting, which pertain to above-water matters. However, she highlighted that actions such as dragging an anchor to intentionally damage undersea infrastructure are not adequately addressed in current legislation.

The current United Nations maritime convention allows countries affected by piracy to confiscate ships or aircraft and detain individuals involved, with the authority to determine penalties resting with their national courts.

Estonian authorities previously indicated that China would not comply with their request to investigate the Hong Kong-flagged vessel Newnew Polar Bear, which both Estonia and Finland suspect of having caused damage to a natural gas pipeline and telecommunications cables connecting the two nations in October 2023.

Additionally, Sweden reported that Chinese authorities denied Swedish officials permission to board the Chinese-flagged vessel Yi Peng 3, which is under suspicion for damaging two undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. China has stated that it has submitted all necessary documentation for the investigation.

China imposes sanctions on military companies and executives in response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan

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The flags of the United States and China fly from a lamppost in the Chinatown neighborhood of Boston, Massachusetts, U.S.

China has imposed sanctions on seven military industrial firms and their senior executives in response to U.S. arms support and sales to Taiwan, as announced by the Chinese foreign ministry on Friday. Among the companies identified are Insitu Inc., a subsidiary of Boeing, as well as Raytheon Canada and Raytheon Australia, both part of RTX Inc., along with Hudson Technologies Co.

Recently, the U.S. authorized $571.3 million in defense assistance for Taiwan, following a prior approval of arms sales estimated at $385 million.

China regards Taiwan, which operates as a democratic entity, as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to assert control over the island. Taiwan firmly rejects China’s claims of sovereignty, asserting that only its citizens have the right to determine their future. Despite the absence of formal diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Taiwan, U.S. law mandates that Washington provide Taiwan with the means for self-defense.

The sanctions will result in the freezing of assets belonging to the companies and executives within China, and will prohibit Chinese entities and individuals from engaging in trade or collaboration with them, according to the ministry’s statement. A spokesperson for the ministry remarked that the U.S. actions “seriously undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The spokesperson, Mao Ning, urged the U.S. to adhere to the one-China principle and cease military support for Taiwan, emphasizing that Beijing will “take all necessary measures” to protect its security and interests.

 

Turkish drone maker Baykar buys Italy’s Piaggio Aerospace

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A Bayraktar Akinci unmanned combat drone is pictured at SAHA EXPO Defence & Aerospace Exhibition in Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar has acquired Italian aircraft manufacturer Piaggio Aerospace, as announced by Italy’s industry ministry on Friday, although financial terms were not disclosed. Piaggio Aerospace, which is not affiliated with the Vespa scooter manufacturer Piaggio, had been under government-controlled special administration since it sought creditor protection in 2018.

According to the ministry’s statement, Baykar’s proposal was selected over two other final and binding offers from international competitors. The ministry noted that Baykar’s bid was considered the “most appropriate to safeguard the interests of Piaggio Aerospace’s workers and creditors while revitalizing the company’s industrial future.” Baykar has committed to sustaining and enhancing aircraft production, along with associated technical support, training, logistics, engine maintenance, and manufacturing of engine components.

Russia’s Medvedev claims that a vessel flying the Norwegian flag declined to assist a sinking ship

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Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s National Security Council

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia‘s Security Council, accused a Norwegian-flagged vessel on Friday of neglecting to assist sailors from a sinking Russian cargo ship in the Mediterranean Sea, labeling the incident as an inexcusable act.

The Ursa Major, which was involved in military construction operations for the Russian Defence Ministry, encountered difficulties on Monday and subsequently sank between Spain and Algeria, with 14 of its 16 crew members abandoning ship in a lifeboat.

According to the ship’s owner, Oboronlogistika, three explosions struck the vessel, compromising its hull in what they described as “an act of terrorism,” as reported by the state news agency RIA on Wednesday. Spain’s Maritime Rescue Service indicated that it received a distress signal from the Ursa Major on Monday and dispatched two vessels and a helicopter to the location.

Medvedev specifically pointed to the Norwegian-flagged ship, Oslo Carrier 3, for its refusal to rescue the Russian sailors as the Ursa Major was sinking. He expressed his outrage on his official Telegram channel, stating, “A Norwegian-flagged vessel, Oslo Carrier 3, refused to take aboard distressed Russian sailors from Ursa Major as it was sinking in the Mediterranean. What more is there to explain? That cannot be forgiven!”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also commented on the situation, stating, “If indeed no assistance was rendered to those in distress at sea, this was contrary to all maritime laws and was an outrageous case that deserves total condemnation.”

The company that includes the Oslo Carrier 3 in its fleet, Bulkship Management AS based in Oslo, has not yet responded to a request for comment from Reuters.

Dmitry Medvedev, the former president of Russia and a close associate of President Vladimir Putin, characterized the vessel’s purported actions as indicative of a broader trend of anti-Russian behavior from Europe, which he asserted Moscow must address “by all means available,” including hybrid methods.

On Thursday, Finnish authorities detained a ship transporting Russian oil in the Baltic Sea, suspecting it of having damaged an undersea power cable linking Finland and Estonia the previous day, as well as causing damage to four internet lines. “We are investigating serious sabotage from our end,” stated Robin Lardot, director of the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation.

What amount of aid for Ukraine did Biden authorize following Trump’s victory?

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United States President Joe Biden has urged the Department of Defense to expedite the delivery of weapons to Ukraine following a Christmas Day assault by Russia on the energy infrastructure of its smaller neighbor.

Biden’s remarks on Wednesday come as his administration works diligently to provide military support to Ukraine ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. This overview highlights the commitments made by the US to Ukraine since Trump’s election in November and the urgency behind Biden’s efforts to allocate funds and resources to Ukraine.

What occurred during the Christmas attack on Ukraine?

On Wednesday, Russia launched an assault on Ukraine utilizing drones, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles. Local authorities reported that the attack resulted in injuries to at least six individuals in Kharkiv and one fatality in Dnipropetrovsk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia “intentionally selected Christmas” to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

“What could be more inhumane?” Zelenskyy questioned in a post on X on Wednesday.

Ukraine, which traditionally observed Christmas on January 7 according to the Orthodox calendar, has shifted its celebration to December 25 over the past two years amid the ongoing conflict with Russia.

Keith Kellogg, appointed by Trump as his special envoy for the Ukraine conflict, criticized the recent attack, stating, “Christmas should be a time of peace, yet Ukraine was brutally attacked on Christmas Day.” He emphasized the United States’ commitment to restoring peace in Ukraine.

What was Biden’s response?

On Wednesday, Biden issued a statement denouncing Russia’s assault.

“The intent of this reprehensible attack was to deprive the Ukrainian people of heat and electricity during the winter months and to threaten the integrity of their power grid,” the statement read.

It further noted, “In recent months, the United States has supplied Ukraine with hundreds of air defense missiles, with more on the way. I have instructed the Department of Defense to maintain its accelerated delivery of weapons to Ukraine.”

This commitment is the latest in a series of pledges made by Biden following Trump’s election victory over Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris. Since that time, the Biden administration has been working diligently to provide military assistance to Ukraine before Trump assumes office.

What is the extent of US aid to Ukraine?

As outlined in a fact sheet released by the White House on December 2, the US has allocated $61.4 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022.

On December 2, the Biden administration unveiled a $725 million military aid package that includes munitions, surface-to-air missile systems, small arms, spare parts, and demolition equipment. This package was authorized through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) and received approval from the US Congress.

On December 7, the United States committed $988 million in military assistance to Ukraine. This package featured drones and munitions for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which had previously been supplied to Ukraine. This aid was allocated through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) rather than the usual Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA).

Subsequently, on December 12, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a military aid package for Kyiv valued at $500 million, which included HIMARS ammunition, drones, and armored vehicles. This package was sourced from the PDA.

What additional military support could President Biden provide to Ukraine?

With Republicans taking control of both chambers of the new Congress at the start of the year, it is improbable that Biden, a Democrat, will obtain the necessary approvals for further funding for Ukraine. Former President Trump and many of his Republican supporters have expressed their opposition to what they characterize as a “blank check” for Ukraine.

Despite the challenges in securing new approvals, Biden still has access to a reserve of funds that his administration intends to utilize to maximize aid to Ukraine before he potentially hands over the presidency to Trump.

As of late November, the remaining balance in the PDA was estimated between $4 billion and $5 billion. Despite President Biden committing $1.5 billion from this fund, there remains a substantial amount available for further assistance to Ukraine.

From August 2022 through December 12 of this year, the Biden administration has utilized the PDA on 55 occasions to provide support to Ukraine.

Moreover, approximately $2.2 billion is still accessible under the USAI for Biden’s use.

What is prompting the Biden administration to expedite aid to Ukraine?

Former President Trump has raised concerns regarding U.S. financial involvement in Ukraine.

During a campaign rally in Georgia in September, Trump claimed, “Every time Zelenskyy comes to the United States, he walks away with $100 billion,” referencing an unfounded statistic.

He asserted, “We’re stuck in that war unless I’m president,” during the event.

The president-elect has expressed a desire to swiftly conclude the conflict in Ukraine, which has led to worries that he may reduce support for Kyiv once he assumes office.

On December 13, John Kirby, the U.S. national security spokesman, stated that Biden would “continue to provide additional packages right up to the end of this administration.”

Romanian radar has identified a drone intruding into its airspace, according to the ministry

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Romania’s defense ministry reported that its radar systems detected a small flying object, presumed to be a drone, intruding into national airspace up to 6 kilometers inland in the southeastern Tulcea County late Thursday. This EU and NATO member, which shares a 650-kilometer (400-mile) border with Ukraine, has experienced incidents of Russian drone debris landing on its territory multiple times over the past 18 months due to Moscow’s assaults on Ukrainian port facilities.

The radar initially detected the object at 1904 GMT, approximately 15 kilometers east of Chilia Veche in Tulcea County. Authorities informed the local population to seek shelter and initiated procedures to deploy fighter jets; however, the radar lost track of the signal by 1909 GMT.

The ministry stated that there is currently no information regarding any potential impact on national territory. In October, radar systems had also detected multiple drone signals on different occasions violating Romanian airspace, but fighter jets were unable to visually confirm them, and no crash sites were found. Officials suggested that these incidents could be attributed to cyber interference.

Putin suggests that Slovakia may serve as a venue for peace negotiations with Ukraine

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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a press conference

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday that Russia is receptive to a proposal from Slovakia to facilitate peace talks with Ukraine, aiming to resolve a conflict that he expressed a strong commitment to conclude.

During a meeting earlier this week with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico at the Kremlin, Putin noted that Fico, who has been vocal against European Union military assistance to Ukraine, suggested that Slovakia could serve as a venue for discussions between Russia and Ukraine.

Putin remarked that the Slovak government would be willing to offer its territory as a negotiation platform, saying, “We are not opposed to this idea. Why not? Given Slovakia’s neutral stance.”

Slovakia is increasingly viewed as part of a growing group of central and eastern European EU nations that are skeptical of ongoing support for Ukraine and favor dialogue with Russia.

Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar emphasized that Slovakia has consistently pursued a peaceful resolution to the conflict, describing Putin’s remarks as a “positive signal” towards ending the war.

“Slovak diplomacy is ready to actively engage in the peace process in this manner, and we have also communicated this possibility to our Ukrainian counterparts,” Blanar stated during a joint cabinet meeting in October, as reported in a statement released late Thursday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has frequently criticized Slovakia, which shares a border with Ukraine, for the amicable approach Fico has adopted towards Russia since his return to power following the 2023 elections.

Putin has consistently expressed that Russia is willing to engage in discussions to resolve the conflict with Kyiv, while also asserting that the country will fulfill its objectives in Ukraine.

On Thursday, he mentioned that Russia might deploy the new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile, referred to as Oreshnik, again, although there is no immediate urgency to do so. “We do not rule out the option of utilizing it today or tomorrow, if required,” Putin stated.

He further indicated that, if needed, Russia could resort to employing more potent intermediate-range weaponry.

Russia cautions the United States regarding potential nuclear testing during the Trump administration

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Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Ryabkov

Russia’s arms control representative warned Donald Trump‘s incoming administration on Friday that Moscow is contemplating a variety of potential actions regarding nuclear testing, citing Trump’s extreme stance on the matter.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, responsible for arms control, was quoted by the Kommersant newspaper, indicating that Trump adopted a radical approach to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) during his initial term.

Ryabkov stated, “The current international landscape is highly challenging, and American policies across various dimensions are particularly antagonistic towards us.” He added, “Thus, the range of our actions aimed at ensuring security, along with the array of possible measures and actions to achieve this—while also conveying politically relevant signals beyond what practitioners are contemplating—does not exclude any options.”

During Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021, discussions within his administration included the possibility of conducting the first U.S. nuclear test since 1992, as reported by the Washington Post in 2020.

Post-Soviet Russia has refrained from conducting nuclear tests, with the last Soviet test occurring in 1990. President Vladimir Putin has indicated that Russia would consider nuclear testing if the United States were to proceed with such actions. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, only a limited number of countries have conducted nuclear tests, according to the Arms Control Association: the United States last tested in 1992, followed by China and France in 1996, India and Pakistan in 1998, and North Korea in 2017.

 

New images reveal innovative designs of Chinese military aircraft, according to experts

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Chinese military aircraft fly in Chengdu, Sichuan, China, in this screengrab taken from a social media video released on December 26, 2024.

Images surfaced online on Friday depicting two seemingly new Chinese military aircraft featuring stealth characteristics. Defense analysts noted that while the designs appear advanced, the lack of detailed information prevents any definitive assessments.

Both aircraft are tailless, lacking vertical stabilizers that typically aid in maintaining control. Instead, stability is managed by onboard computers that interpret the pilot’s inputs.

The larger aircraft exhibits a diamond-like shape with an unconventional engine configuration, featuring three air intakes—two located along the fuselage and one positioned on top. The smaller aircraft adopts a more traditional design but also lacks a tail. Both models exhibit the absence of 90-degree angles, a hallmark of stealth design aimed at minimizing radar visibility.

As China continues to modernize its military capabilities, Euan Graham, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, remarked that these designs reflect the Chinese aviation industry’s commitment to experimentation and innovation.

“Regardless of their strengths or weaknesses, these designs are notably original,” he stated. “They deserve recognition for their creativity and should dispel any complacency regarding the pace set by the U.S. and its allies.” The Chinese defense ministry has not yet responded to inquiries for comment, while the U.S. Department of Defense acknowledged awareness of the reports but refrained from further commentary beyond its recent annual military report on China.

SIXTH-GENERATION FIGHTER JETS

The United States is progressing with its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) initiative, aimed at developing a sixth-generation fighter jet. However, the direction of this program under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration remains uncertain.
In Europe and Asia, a collaborative effort is underway to create a next-generation aircraft through the Global Combat Air Programme, which has recently seen the formation of a joint venture between British and Japanese companies.

Reuters has verified a video depicting one of the two new Chinese aircraft in flight over Chengdu by correlating nearby structures, signage, logos, and trees with satellite images and previously recorded visuals. The authenticity of the date remains unconfirmed.
The Chinese aircraft showcased in the online footage are not the first modern tailless designs. The Northrop Grumman B-2 and B-21 stealth bombers are both flying wing configurations, and several unmanned aerial vehicles, including the Lockheed Martin RQ-170 and China’s CH-7, also feature a tailless design.
Currently, neither of the Chinese jets has been assigned an official designation. While their designs are innovative compared to the rest of China’s fleet, it is challenging to assess their stealth capabilities, maneuverability, speed, or the advanced avionics they may possess—key factors necessary to evaluate whether they qualify as “next-generation” aircraft, according to five defense experts.
Peter Layton, a defense and aviation specialist at the Griffith Asia Institute in Australia, emphasized the difficulty in categorizing Chinese aircraft with labels like fifth-generation, which typically refers to current stealth jets such as the F-22 and F-35, due to the unique design elements that often do not recur in other models.

China’s J-20 and J-35 possess stealth features, yet their specific capabilities remain undisclosed, with only the J-20 currently operational. In response to China’s activities in the Indo-Pacific, the United States has been investing heavily in advanced missile systems and other technologies aimed at deterrence. Recently, a missile interception system was tested on the strategically important island of Guam, utilizing sophisticated radar technology.

Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in the U.S., remarked on China’s daytime flights of new aircraft designs over urban areas, describing it as “curious.” She suggested that China may find it easier to keep pace with the U.S. in terms of manned aircraft rather than unmanned systems and missiles. “As the Pentagon is actively debating the future of NGAD, it is hard not to wonder if this is Beijing’s attempt to influence that debate,” she noted.

In a separate development, Chinese state media outlet Xinhua reported that the People’s Liberation Army Navy has launched its latest amphibious assault ship.

WHO chief confirmed he was at the Yemeni airport hit by Israeli airstrikes

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Smoke rises after Israeli strikes near Sanaa airport, in Sanaa, Yemen.

Israeli forces conducted a series of airstrikes on Thursday targeting the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, and the western city of Hodeidah, resulting in the deaths of at least six individuals and injuring many others, according to a statement from the Iran-aligned Houthis, who pledged to retaliate.

The assault on Sanaa International Airport resulted in the deaths of three people and left 30 others injured, as reported by the Houthi-operated al-Masirah television. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Director-General of the World Health Organization, stated that he and a United Nations team were preparing to board a flight when the airport was struck.

“As we were about to board our flight from Sanaa, the airport was hit by aerial bombardment. One of our crew members sustained injuries,” Ghebreyesus noted, assuring that he and his team were unharmed.

He further mentioned that the air traffic control tower, the departure lounge—located just meters from their position—and the runway sustained damage. “We will have to wait for the airport repairs to be completed before we can depart,” he added.

In Hodeidah, at least three individuals were reported dead and ten others injured due to the strikes, according to al-Masirah. The attacks targeted the ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa, as well as the Ras Kutub power station in the Hodeidah Governorate, the Houthis reported.

The total number of injuries from the strikes reached at least 40, with the Houthis condemning the assault as “brutal aggression” and vowing to seek revenge.

Hezam al-Asad, a member of the Houthi political council, issued a warning to Israel in a post on X, stating, “Gush Dan is no longer safe.” Gush Dan refers to a metropolitan area in central Israel that encompasses Tel Aviv and its surrounding towns and cities.

The Israeli military announced on Thursday that it targeted “military installations” associated with the Iran-aligned Houthis.

According to a statement from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the operations focused on military infrastructure utilized by the Houthi regime for its activities at Sanaa International Airport, as well as the Hezyaz and Ras Kanatib power stations.

Furthermore, the IDF reported that it had also engaged “military infrastructure” located at the ports of Hodeidah, Salif, and Ras Kanatib along the western coastline.

These military sites were allegedly employed by the Iran-backed Houthis for the smuggling of Iranian arms into the area and for facilitating the arrival of high-ranking Iranian officials, as stated by the Israeli military.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that operations in Yemen would continue “until the mission is complete.” Speaking from the Air Force Command Center in Israel, he asserted, “We will continue to dismantle the terror apparatus of Iran’s axis of evil until our objectives are achieved.”

In recent months, the Houthis have launched missiles at Israeli cities, claiming these actions are a response to the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, which has resulted in over 45,300 Palestinian casualties. The Israeli military has conducted multiple strikes in Yemen since initiating its operations in Gaza following the Hamas-led attack on October 7.

Ongoing Tensions

A UN delegation was present in Yemen to facilitate negotiations for the release of detained UN personnel and to evaluate the health and humanitarian conditions in the region. Tedros, representing the WHO, expressed condolences to the families of those who lost their lives in the recent attack, as noted in the statement.

The United States and the United Kingdom have previously targeted the Houthis in response to their disruption of shipping activities in the Red Sea, a critical global trade route. The US State Department designates the Houthis as a global terrorist organization.

Last week, a missile launched from Yemen struck Tel Aviv, Israel’s second-largest city, resulting in injuries to at least 16 individuals. Just days prior, Israel successfully intercepted another missile fired by the Houthis, although shrapnel from that incident caused significant damage to a school in the vicinity of Tel Aviv.

Since the onset of Israel’s conflict with Hamas in Gaza in October of the previous year, the nation has faced missile and rocket attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, both of which are militant groups supported by Iran, as well as direct threats from Iran itself. The majority of these projectiles have been successfully intercepted by Israel’s air defense systems.

For several months, the Houthis have been targeting vessels in the Red Sea, one of the busiest maritime routes globally, claiming these actions are a reaction to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

The Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah form part of an Iran-led coalition that has been attacking Israel and its allies since the conflict escalated last year. They have declared that their assaults on Israel and its allies will persist until a ceasefire is established in the Palestinian territories.

In the aftermath of Thursday’s attacks, the Houthis reaffirmed their commitment to supporting the people of Gaza, stating that their actions will continue until the aggression against Gaza ceases and the blockade on its population is lifted.

In 2024, wars in regions from Gaza to Ukraine and beyond

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A military vehicle with a laser transits during an Israeli raid in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank

As the year comes to an end, Israel’s aggressive actions against Palestinians continue unabated in both Gaza and the occupied West Bank. Simultaneously, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia shows no signs of resolution, with a ceasefire remaining elusive.

In Gaza and the West Bank, violence has escalated to alarming levels, with over 35,000 Palestinians reported killed in 2024, making it the deadliest year since the onset of Israeli military actions and Zionist hostilities in 1948. Ukraine has also faced its most lethal period, with a total of 67,000 fatalities recorded on both sides of the ongoing conflict.

In Lebanon, a tenuous ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel has been in effect since late November, lasting for 60 days. Nevertheless, nearly 4,000 Lebanese lives have been lost this year, and the Netanyahu administration has frequently breached the ceasefire with targeted attacks under various justifications.

Syria witnessed an unexpected shift in late November when an opposition offensive led to the sudden collapse of the Assad regime after an 11-day campaign. Since that time, the country has experienced an unusual calm, contrasting sharply with its history of Baathist oppression.

Overall, 2024 has been marked by significant bloodshed, with a total of 233,000 fatalities, reflecting a 30 percent increase from the previous year, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project. The incidence of fatal violence has doubled since 2019, leaving one in eight individuals affected by conflict. Among these, Palestinians have faced “the highest level of violence,” as reported by ACLED.

This summary encapsulates the key developments in four major conflicts: Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, and Syria.

The Gaza Conflict

The year 2024 marks a profoundly tragic period in the narrative of Palestinian hardship, eclipsing over a century of Zionist oppression and violence.

In the midst of ongoing hostilities, there is a potential for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, as representatives from both parties engage in discussions in Qatar.

Recently, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz characterized the current negotiations as “the closest we’ve been to a hostage deal since the last deal,” alluding to the November 2023 agreement that facilitated the release of over 100 Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian detainees.

Despite these negotiations, experts express doubt regarding the cessation of Israel’s occupation of Gaza. A recent report from the New York Times indicated that Israel has established 19 military installations throughout the Mediterranean territory. Additionally, Israeli forces have intensified their military presence in central Gaza, effectively creating a division between the northern and southern areas.

Kamel Hawwash, a Palestinian academic, author, and political commentator, interprets Israel’s growing military presence as indicative of a “prolonged” occupation. “Israel will remain wherever it chooses because there is no one to dislodge it from any part of Gaza,” Hawwash remarked, highlighting the backing from the US and Western nations for Tel Aviv.

Following the events of October 7, Israeli officials hinted at plans to completely remove Palestinians from Gaza. While Hawwash refrains from labeling the current military operation as an effort to entirely eradicate Palestinians from the region, he contends that Israel has “quickly recognized that with support from the US and the UK, they can act with impunity.”

Ukraine War

Since October 2023, Israeli military actions have resulted in the deaths of over 45,000 Palestinians, including 14,500 children, and have left more than 106,000 individuals injured. UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell highlighted the dire situation, stating in a social media update that nearly all 1.1 million children in Gaza urgently require protection and mental health assistance.

In the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, 2024 has proven to be a particularly violent year. Russian forces have gained significant ground against Kiev, advancing through eastern Ukrainian regions. In response to increased assaults from Moscow, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s administration launched an unexpected counteroffensive, seizing portions of the Kursk region within Russia.

The Russian Defence Ministry reported that in 2024, Moscow has taken control of nearly 4,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian land, advancing at a pace of approximately 30 square kilometers daily. Recently, Russian forces have moved closer to the strategically important city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, reinforcing their hold on critical areas.

However, a significant incident occurred last week in Moscow when an explosion near the Kremlin resulted in the death of General Igor Kirillov, who was in charge of the military’s radiological, chemical, and biological department. Ukraine has claimed responsibility for this attack.

Sergei Markov, a Russian political analyst and former advisor to Vladimir Putin, suggested that Kirillov was targeted not only by Ukraine but also by American interests due to his efforts against US chemical and biological operations in Ukraine. “It was American retribution against him,” Markov stated.

In 2022, Kirillov, during a speech, characterized the Pentagon’s activities in Ukraine as a cover for “illegal military and biological research,” alleging that members of the US Democratic Party were financing bioweapons initiatives in the country. He specifically mentioned Metabiota, a key contractor for the Pentagon, which he claimed was receiving funds from Hunter Biden’s investment fund.

In response, Ukraine accused Kirillov of using chemical weapons against its citizens.

The year 2024 also witnessed a significant Ukrainian cross-border operation targeting Russia’s Kursk region, which the Wall Street Journal referred to as “the first foreign invasion of Russian territory since World War II.” This operation was intended to showcase Ukraine’s resilience and underscore its need for ongoing military support from the West, despite Russian progress in eastern Ukraine.

Kursk, historically notable for being the site of the largest armored confrontation during WWII between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, once again became a symbolic battleground in 2024. The operation served as a strong signal from the Zelenskyy administration to NATO allies: Ukraine is still capable of mounting a defense and warrants increased military assistance.

Israeli war on Lebanon

Israeli military actions this year have also escalated, extending beyond Gaza into Lebanon, a neighboring country that has faced decades of invasions and cross-border assaults from Israel.

Israel’s operations in Lebanon commenced in September with the use of pagers and walkie-talkies to orchestrate explosions, a covert strategy that resulted in numerous fatalities and thousands of injuries. Last month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged Israel’s involvement in these lethal assaults.

Subsequently, Israeli airstrikes targeted Lebanon, eliminating key Hezbollah commanders and prominent political figures. In late September, the long-standing leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli attack, along with Hashem Safieddine, a significant Hezbollah leader anticipated to succeed Nasrallah, in early October.

In October, Israeli ground troops entered Lebanon for the first time since the 2006 conflict with Hezbollah, marking the sixth instance of Israeli occupation of the small Mediterranean nation. The military actions and occupation resulted in the deaths of thousands of Lebanese and left over 16,000 individuals injured.

On November 27, a ceasefire agreement was reached between Hezbollah and Israel, with both parties claiming victory for their respective reasons. However, this tenuous ceasefire has been compromised by more than 200 violations attributed to Israeli forces, as reported by Lebanese officials.

End of Assad Regime

Amidst the ongoing violence throughout the year, 2024 also witnessed the collapse of Syria’s Baathist regime under Bashar al-Assad. The regime’s authoritarian rule, maintained through extreme violence and oppression, led to the deaths of over 500,000 individuals and displaced nearly half of Syria’s population during the country’s devastating 13-year civil war.

Although armed anti-regime factions were unable to achieve victory against the Assad regime, which received support from Russia and Iran during the protracted civil war that began with the Arab Spring in 2011, they did not capitulate. Instead, they retreated to the northwestern province of Idlib, where they continued to resist the regime’s aggressive advances.

In late November, groups opposing the regime, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), initiated a rapid offensive that swiftly advanced through northern Syria, seizing Aleppo, the nation’s largest city with a rich historical background. Following this, they directed their efforts toward Hama, a bastion of anti-Baath sentiment that has faced repression since the 1960s under the Assad family’s rule.

The rapid acquisition of both Aleppo and Hama—cities that had remained beyond the reach of opposition forces throughout the civil war—indicated the impending downfall of the Assad regime.

On December 8, anti-regime forces entered Damascus, the historic capital of Syria, without facing any opposition. The regime’s military had disappeared, prompting Bashar al-Assad and his family to flee to Moscow.

In the wake of the regime’s disintegration, the anti-regime factions established a transitional government, with Mohammed al Bashir as the new prime minister and Ahmed al Sharaa leading HTS. Thus far, they have managed a relatively smooth transition of power, instilling a sense of optimism in a nation ravaged by conflict.

“This is a message to all the oppressed and revolutionaries around the world: Truth will prevail and the people will prevail despite all the injustice and bloodshed,” states Omar Alhariri, a journalist from Daraa. “Do not lose hope.”

1. Although the violent conflict in Syria has reached a relatively stable conclusion, numerous other global conflicts, which have inflicted significant human suffering, persist without any apparent resolution in sight.

In Sudan, a civil war lasting 20 months between the military and a paramilitary group has resulted in the largest displacement crisis in the world and an escalating famine, displacing 30 percent of the population and claiming over 24,000 lives.

Similarly, in Myanmar, the conflict between military authorities and anti-government factions has intensified this year, coinciding with the International Criminal Court’s issuance of an arrest warrant for the nation’s top military official.

Lebanon seeks amicable relations with the new Syrian government

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Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib speaks during the Mediterranean Dialogues conference in Rome, Italy.

Lebanon expressed its eagerness to foster strong neighborly relations with Syria on Thursday, marking its first official communication with the new administration in Damascus.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib conveyed this sentiment during a phone conversation with his Syrian counterpart, Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, as reported by the Lebanese Foreign Ministry on X.

Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group in Lebanon, played a significant role in supporting Syria’s former President Bashar al-Assad throughout the prolonged conflict. However, over the past year, Hezbollah has redeployed its fighters back to Lebanon to engage in a challenging conflict with Israel, a move that has diminished the strength of the Syrian government’s defenses.

During Assad’s regime, Hezbollah utilized Syrian territory to facilitate the transfer of weapons and military supplies from Iran, passing through Iraq and into Lebanon. However, on December 6, anti-Assad forces took control of the border with Iraq, effectively severing this supply route. Just two days later, Islamist rebels captured the capital, Damascus.

Syria’s new Islamist leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is now working to establish diplomatic relations with both Arab and Western nations following the ousting of Assad.

Russia claims to have thwarted Ukrainian attempts to assassinate high-ranking officials using concealed explosives

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Russia announced on Thursday that it had thwarted multiple assassination attempts orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence aimed at high-ranking Russian officials and their families in Moscow. These plots involved explosives concealed as power banks or document folders.

On December 17, Ukraine‘s SBU intelligence agency was responsible for the assassination of Lieutenant General Kirillov, the head of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Protection Troops. He was killed in Moscow outside his residence when a bomb attached to an electric scooter was detonated.

A source from the SBU confirmed to Reuters that the agency was behind the operation. In response, Russia labeled the incident a terrorist act by Ukraine, with which it has been in conflict since February 2022, and pledged to retaliate.

“The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation has successfully prevented a number of assassination plots targeting senior military officials of the Defence Ministry,” the FSB stated.

The agency reported that four Russian nationals involved in planning these attacks had been apprehended. Ukraine’s SBU has not yet provided a response to a request for comment from Reuters.

The FSB, which is the primary successor to the Soviet-era KGB, indicated that these Russian citizens had been recruited by Ukrainian intelligence. One of the suspects had obtained a bomb disguised as a portable charger in Moscow, intended to be magnetically affixed to the vehicle of a senior Defence Ministry official, according to the FSB.

A Russian individual was assigned to gather intelligence on high-ranking officials within the Russian defense sector, with one scheme reportedly involving the delivery of an explosive device concealed within a document folder.

According to reports, an explosive device camouflaged as a portable charger, equipped with magnets, was intended to be placed beneath the vehicle of a senior leader in the Russian Defense Ministry. The specific timing of the planned attacks remains uncertain; however, one suspect indicated that he had obtained a bomb on December 23, as per the FSB.

Russian state television broadcast what it claimed were recordings of some suspects who confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian intelligence to carry out bombings targeting officials of the Russian defense ministry. Moscow accuses Ukraine of orchestrating a series of high-profile assassinations on its territory aimed at undermining morale, asserting that the West is backing a “terrorist regime” in Kyiv.

Ukraine, which views Russia’s aggression as a fundamental threat to its sovereignty, has stated that it considers such targeted killings a legitimate strategy. Darya Dugina, the 29-year-old daughter of a notable Russian nationalist, was killed in August 2022 near Moscow. The New York Times reported that U.S. intelligence agencies believe elements of the Ukrainian government sanctioned the assassination. Subsequently, U.S. officials reportedly reprimanded Ukrainian authorities regarding the incident, although Ukraine has denied involvement in Dugina’s death.

Russia believes Trump’s team should take the lead in improving relations

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

Russia is open to collaborating with Donald Trump‘s forthcoming administration to enhance bilateral relations, provided the U.S. demonstrates genuine intentions to do so. However, according to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the initiative must come from Washington.

As Trump prepares to assume the presidency again on January 20, he presents himself as a skilled negotiator and has pledged to quickly resolve the conflict in Ukraine, although he has not detailed his strategy for achieving this, aside from encouraging dialogue between President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Keith Kellogg, Trump’s appointed envoy for Ukraine, stated on Fox News on December 18 that both parties are prepared for peace negotiations and that Trump is ideally positioned to broker a resolution to the conflict.

Lavrov remarked to reporters in Moscow, “If the new administration in Washington sends serious signals to restore the dialogue that was interrupted following the onset of the special military operation in Ukraine, we will certainly respond.”

He emphasized, however, that since the U.S. had previously halted discussions, it is now their responsibility to take the first step. Lavrov, who has served as Putin’s foreign minister for over two decades, noted the significant consequences of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which has resulted in numerous casualties, the displacement of millions, and a profound deterioration in relations between Moscow and the West, reminiscent of the tensions during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

U.S. officials have characterized Russia as a corrupt autocracy, identifying it as the primary nation-state threat to the United States, citing its interference in U.S. elections, wrongful imprisonment of American citizens, and sabotage efforts against U.S. allies.

Russian officials assert that the United States is experiencing a decline in power, having consistently overlooked Russia’s interests since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. They claim the U.S. has also fostered internal discord within Russia to fragment its society and advance American objectives.

PEACE IN UKRAINE

According to a report from Reuters last month, President Putin is willing to engage in discussions regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine with Trump, but he firmly rejects any significant territorial concessions and demands that Kyiv relinquish its aspirations to join NATO. Currently, Russia occupies approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory.

Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia sees no value in a fragile ceasefire that merely pauses the conflict. Instead, Moscow seeks a legally binding agreement that would establish a durable peace, ensuring the security of both Russia and its neighboring countries. “A truce leads to nowhere,” Lavrov remarked.

He emphasized the necessity for definitive legal agreements that would outline all conditions necessary for safeguarding the Russian Federation and the legitimate security interests of its neighbors. Lavrov further noted that Moscow desires these legal documents to be structured in a manner that guarantees “the impossibility of violating these agreements.” Putin has criticized the West, particularly the United States, for disregarding Russia’s post-Soviet interests, attempting to draw Ukraine into its sphere of influence since 2014, and subsequently using Ukraine as a means to wage a proxy war aimed at undermining and ultimately dismantling Russia.

In 2014, following the ousting of a pro-Russian president during Ukraine’s Maidan Revolution, which sought to foster closer relations with the West, Russia annexed Crimea and initiated military assistance to pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Western nations characterize Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an imperialistic land acquisition by Moscow, which has bolstered the NATO military alliance while diminishing Russia’s influence.

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy stated on Sunday that NATO membership is “attainable,” but emphasized that Kyiv must actively work to convince its Western allies to support this goal.

UNIFIL urges the swift withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon per last month’s ceasefire agreement

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A handout image released on October 3, 2024 by the Israeli army says to show members of the Israeli army taking part in an operation in southern Lebanon.

The United Nations peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) issued a statement on Thursday urging for a prompt withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, referencing what it described as Israeli breaches of a ceasefire agreement established on November 27 with the Iran-aligned Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Israel and Hezbollah had previously reached a U.S.-mediated 60-day ceasefire, which stipulates a gradual withdrawal of Israeli military presence following over a year of conflict, in accordance with a 2006 U.N. Security Council resolution that concluded their last significant hostilities.

As part of this agreement, Hezbollah is required to vacate its positions in southern Lebanon and relocate north of the Litani River, situated approximately 20 miles (30 km) north of the Israeli border, alongside a complete Israeli withdrawal from the southern region.

In its statement, UNIFIL expressed alarm over what it characterized as ongoing destruction of residential areas, agricultural land, and infrastructure by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, labeling this as a violation of U.N. Resolution 1701.

“UNIFIL continues to call for the prompt withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces (to replace Hezbollah) in southern Lebanon, while advocating for the full implementation of Resolution 1701 as a holistic approach to achieving peace,” the statement indicated.

The Israeli military acknowledged UNIFIL’s concerns and stated that it is reviewing the criticism, but refrained from providing additional comments at this time. According to the terms of the ceasefire with Hezbollah, Israeli forces have a period of up to 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon, during which neither party is permitted to initiate offensive actions.

Lebanon’s military announced that it is in communication with UNIFIL and the committee overseeing the agreement concerning what it described as an intensified incursion by Israeli forces into certain regions of southern Lebanon. UNIFIL confirmed its commitment to oversee the area south of the Litani River, ensuring it remains devoid of armed individuals and weaponry, apart from those belonging to the Lebanese government and UNIFIL itself.

The ceasefire concluded the most severe clash between Israel and Hezbollah since their six-week conflict in 2006. Nevertheless, Israel has persisted with military actions against Palestinian militants in Gaza.

Egypt: Sisi is concerned about a potential popular uprising following Assad’s downfall in Syria

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Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi asserted to military leaders and journalists a week after Bashar al-Assad‘s fall in Syria, “I am not responsible for anyone’s bloodshed, nor have I taken anyone’s wealth.”

Having risen to power a decade ago through a coup, Sisi, a former army general, has largely avoided making explicit statements regarding Assad’s exit. Nevertheless, his comments reflect a growing concern about the stability of his own regime.

With Assad’s removal, Sisi may be increasingly conscious of his position as the most authoritarian leader in the Arab world, overseeing more than 65,000 political prisoners, numerous cases of enforced disappearances, and a systematic approach to torture that constitutes a crime against humanity.

In mid-December, Sisi convened a meeting with military and police officials, as well as pro-government journalists, at the Strategic Command headquarters located in the New Administrative Capital, a contentious $58 billion project east of Cairo.

The meeting was not fully aired, and state media highlighted select excerpts focusing on two main themes: Sisi’s distinction from Assad and a warning to Egyptians against emulating the Syrian rebels.

On December 23, Egyptian state-affiliated media aired a video compilation of past speeches by President Sisi directed at the public. In these addresses, Sisi remarked, “They have completed their mission in Syria; they have destroyed Syria, and the objective now is to dismantle the Egyptian state,” without clarifying the entities he was referencing or attributing responsibility for Syria’s devastation.

Hisham Kassem, an Egyptian politician and former leader of the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights (EOHR), indicated that Sisi’s statements reveal concerns regarding possible popular movements against the existing regime.

Kassem remarked that “Sisi’s comments serve as a warning about the potential consequences of a popular uprising, revolution, or the rise of political activism aimed at fostering change.”

Recently, the hashtag #The_Land_The_People_The_Army has gained popularity on social media, with support from accounts linked to Sisi’s administration.

In what seems to be a coordinated online initiative, Sisi’s statements have been extensively shared, accompanied by dire warnings of a conspiracy to destabilize Egypt and weaken its military, drawing comparisons to the circumstances in Syria.

‘Better than Syria and Iraq’

Since taking office in June 2014, Sisi has concentrated on averting civic unrest similar to that of the January 2011 revolution.

In light of an economic downturn and increasing difficulties faced by many Egyptians, Sisi has adopted a strategy that leverages fear—particularly the fear of Syria’s outcome—to suppress dissent.

Through stringent security protocols, he has curtailed protests, criminalized demonstrations, and established over 23 new correctional facilities.

The regime’s narrative consistently cautions Egyptians against engaging in protests, frequently referencing the catastrophic consequences of the Syrian civil war, which include extensive destruction and mass displacement.

“Better than Syria and Iraq” has emerged as one of Sisi’s frequently employed slogans.

State-controlled media serves as a vehicle for propaganda, often fostering animosity towards opposition.

This media, managed by United Media Services—associated with the Egyptian General Intelligence Service—has initiated a fear-based campaign, emphasizing that Egypt is fundamentally different from Syria.

A similar strategy was employed by Egyptian authorities during the initial phases of the Arab Spring.

For instance, on January 15, 2011, after the ousting of Tunisian President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, Egyptian media, which supported then-President Hosni Mubarak, repeatedly asserted, “Egypt is not Tunisia,” in an effort to dissuade protests that ultimately led to Mubarak’s resignation.

In a similar vein, the media aligned with Sisi has shown signs of discomfort following Assad’s decline.

Notable media personality Amr Adeeb, who recently acquired Saudi citizenship, warned against Sisi potentially facing a fate akin to Assad’s, advocating for reliance solely on the military and police forces. Other commentators echoed this sentiment, labeling Syria’s transitional leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, as a terrorist threat to both countries.

Kassem stated that “Egyptian media has now reached a point where it simply follows orders without contributing to content development.”

He noted that, in contrast to the era of Mubarak or the initial phase of Sisi’s administration, when media aligned with the regime played a significant role in influencing policies, it currently functions merely as an executor of directives, failing to make any efforts to amend or enhance them, even when such actions would evidently serve the regime’s interests.

Increased Security Measures for Syrians

The growing concerns regarding the situation in Syria have led to stricter security protocols imposed by Egyptian authorities on Syrians, primarily refugees, living in Egypt.

In Cairo, members of the Syrian community who gathered to celebrate Assad’s downfall were arrested under the justification of protesting without authorization.

The motivations behind these actions seemed to go beyond simple legal enforcement.

A recent report from the French media outlet African Intelligence indicated that officials from the Egyptian General Intelligence Service and the National Security Agency conducted meetings with Syrian community leaders, effectively cautioning them against engaging in demonstrations organized by Sharaa.

According to African Intelligence, the message from the security services was clear: “Remain in your homes and report any potential gatherings; failure to do so may result in arrest or deportation.”

In a related development, the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR), a prominent human rights organization, reported earlier this week that Egyptian authorities have issued deportation orders for around three Syrians detained at the First of October Police Station.

Additionally, it has come to light that more detainees are being held in various police stations, including the Second of October Police Station. This raises the total number of detainees to approximately 30 Syrians who are currently awaiting decisions from the passports and immigration authority, as well as directives from the National Security Agency.

A lesson for Sisi

Over the last ten years, Sisi has consistently highlighted the importance of the Egyptian military for national stability, urging citizens to recognize its significance since 2011.

Sisi frequently positions himself as the guardian of Egypt, warning against the potential for chaos akin to that seen in Syria. “We can withstand hunger and thirst, but we remain steadfast,” he stated in one of his speeches.

The downfall of Assad serves as a powerful symbol and can be likened to Sisi’s governance. Following the capture of Aleppo by armed factions, Assad raised military salaries by 50 percent; however, the Syrian army still struggled to protect him as opposition forces advanced toward the capital.

In Egypt, President Sisi has bestowed considerable economic authority upon the military, which now oversees more than 60 percent of the nation’s economy. This situation raises alarms regarding the military’s allegiance in times of potential civil unrest. Sisi’s dependence on regional partners like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates mirrors Assad’s reliance on Iran and Russia. However, akin to Assad’s experience, Sisi may discover that his allies are reluctant to provide support when it is most needed.

Sisi’s concerns likely arise from the economic difficulties and social tensions that both Syria and Egypt are experiencing. In Syria, nearly 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line due to Assad’s policies. In Egypt, a recent statement from Social Solidarity Minister Maya Morsy indicated that approximately 12 million families are living in poverty, affecting an estimated 48 to 60 million citizens who are grappling with severe economic issues.

The glaring disparity between the opulence of Assad’s confiscated palaces and the financial struggles faced by many Egyptians underscores this dilemma.

Moreover, the stark contrast between the widespread poverty among Egyptians and Sisi’s extravagant new capital and presidential palace raises concerns about whether he might ultimately encounter a fate similar to that of Assad.

Sisi’s decision to host the G8 summit at his newly constructed presidential palace has been criticized as a significant miscalculation. The palace, which cost around 150 billion Egyptian pounds (approximately $3 billion), is particularly contentious as Sisi urges citizens to withstand economic hardships. Considering that the poverty threshold in Egypt is set at 90 pounds per day, this expenditure could potentially elevate around 55 million Egyptians above the poverty line.

“What transpired in Syria illustrates that stability cannot be attained through violence and oppression,” Kassem remarked.

Is Russia planning a false flag operation in Moldova?

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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Moldova's President Maia Sandu attend a joint news conference in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Russia has accused Moldova of orchestrating a military operation in Transnistria, a region that is supported by Moscow, raising alarms among analysts who fear it could be a pretext for a “false flag” operation in Moldova.

Earlier this week, Russian intelligence reported that President Maia Sandu of Moldova was preparing for military action in Transnistria, which shares a border with Ukraine. Sandu was inaugurated for her second presidential term on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs asserted that NATO was transforming Moldova into a weapons supply center for Ukraine, a claim that is likely to intensify concerns that Moscow may be looking for a rationale to take action against its smaller neighbor.

Here is an overview of the current situation between Russia and Moldova, along with potential future developments.

What are Russia‘s claims?

On Monday, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service alleged that President Sandu of Moldova was planning a military initiative in Transnistria. Russian intelligence suggested that this military action could lead to an escalation into conflict.

Adrian Balutel, the chief of staff to Sandu, dismissed the allegations, asserting that the nation had no intentions of militarily intervening in Transnistria, despite its claim over the territory as part of Moldova.

On Wednesday, Russia introduced a new accusation, alleging that NATO, led by the United States, had supplied a significant quantity of arms to Moldova in recent months. Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry, stated that Moscow suspects these weapons are ultimately meant for Ukraine, referencing Sandu’s pro-Western stance to support her assertions.

In recent months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increasingly indicated that not only Ukraine but also other nations assisting it in its conflict with Moscow could be regarded as adversaries that the Kremlin might target.

What are the concerns regarding ‘false flags’?

Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sandu has expressed fears that Moldova could be the next target for Moscow, urging Western leaders to take Moldova’s apprehensions seriously.

Upon her inauguration for a second term this week in Chisinau, Sandu remarked, “We have successfully opened the door wide to the European Union.” Moldova has been a candidate for EU membership since June 2022, awaiting formal acceptance of its application by Brussels.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington, DC, suggest that the Kremlin’s recent allegations may be part of a broader strategy to undermine Moldova’s efforts to join the European Union by creating instability within the country. The ISW’s report also warns that the Kremlin might be preparing the groundwork for a potential false flag operation in Transnistria.

What is Transnistria?

Transnistria is a breakaway region of Moldova that aligns itself with Russia, located between a section of the Dniester River in Moldova and Ukraine, with Romania to its west.

This region declared independence from Moldova in 1990 and held a referendum in September 2006 to reaffirm its independence and seek a union with Russia, a move that Moldova did not recognize.

In February 2022, Transnistria’s leaders requested protection from Russia, shortly after the onset of the war in Ukraine. This request mirrored similar appeals made by pro-Russian leaders in Ukraine, which Russia cited as justification for its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its actions in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in 2022.

While Transnistria is internationally acknowledged as part of Moldova, Europe considers the region to be under Russian occupation since 2022.

Transnistria is home to Russian military personnel and a significant Russian arms storage site, known as the Cobasna ammunition depot. Currently, there are approximately 1,500 Russian troops deployed in this breakaway region of Moldova, as reported by the Harvard International Review in October.

In what other ways is Russia exerting pressure on Moldova?

Politically, Moldova recently held a presidential election amidst allegations of Russian interference. Despite this, the pro-Western candidate, Maia Sandu, secured 55.33 percent of the votes, defeating Alexandr Stoianoglo, who was supported by the Russia-aligned Socialist Party.

A report from the London-based think tank Chatham House earlier this year indicated that Moscow is also attempting to influence the Moldovan public information landscape through harmful disinformation campaigns.

Additionally, Moldova’s national security service has claimed that pro-Russian oligarchs have invested millions of euros to orchestrate anti-government demonstrations and manipulate election outcomes. This includes Ilan Shor, a former Moldovan parliamentarian who was convicted in absentia on fraud charges in January.

In terms of energy, Moldova is grappling with a crisis. The country relies on Russia for approximately 2 billion cubic meters (71 billion cubic feet) of gas each year, all of which has been redirected to Transnistria since 2022. Transnistria, in turn, supplies electricity to Moldova, generated from this Russian gas.

The gas in question is transported via a pipeline that traverses Ukraine. Recently, Kyiv has made the decision to halt the transit of this gas. Moldovan President Sandu has accused Gazprom, the Russian energy conglomerate, of neglecting to explore the option of an alternative pipeline and has been preparing the nation for what she describes as a “harsh” winter without Russian gas supplies.

It is anticipated that Russia’s gas provision to Moldova will cease on January 1, 2025. Earlier this month, Moldova declared a state of emergency in response to the looming gas shortage.

In terms of violence, in April 2022, the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, the largest city in Transnistria, was targeted by explosions. The following day, additional explosions resulted in the destruction of two significant radio antennas and other facilities in the region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, along with other Ukrainian allies, has asserted that these explosions were false flag operations conducted by Russia to depict Transnistria as being attacked by Moldova, in light of Moldova’s support for Ukraine.

EU expresses reservations about deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine, US media reports

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It is highly improbable that EU member states will send peacekeepers to Ukraine, particularly in the absence of American involvement, as reported by US state-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) on Wednesday, referencing informed sources.

An unnamed EU diplomat explained, “There are two main reasons to doubt the presence of European soldiers in Ukraine. Firstly, the Russians would not accept it. Secondly, it would be difficult to gain support from the European public.” The diplomat further noted that the deployment of Western troops to potentially face casualties in Ukraine would benefit populist movements.

Another unnamed EU official quoted by RFE/RL remarked that the prospect of foreign troop deployment is unlikely. “While it is a commendable idea, the skepticism observed in countries like the Czech Republic and Poland—expected to contribute a significant number of soldiers—indicates that it will be challenging to advocate for this,” the official stated.

Additionally, an EU diplomat conveyed to RFE/RL that Ukraine is likely facing a “rough landing” in the upcoming year. “There are no favorable scenarios,” the source indicated, implying that the situation may evolve into a scenario reminiscent of the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, which temporarily halted extensive hostilities in Donbass.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has pointed to Kiev’s inability to fulfill the Minsk agreements as a fundamental factor contributing to the ongoing conflict. Both Russia and Ukraine have thus far dismissed the notion of an unconditional ceasefire.

Various news outlets have reported that European leaders are contemplating the deployment of peacekeepers once a ceasefire is established.

According to Politico magazine, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish President Donald Tusk intended to discuss this issue during their recent meeting in Warsaw. Tusk subsequently informed reporters that Poland had no intentions of pursuing such measures. French officials had previously proposed the idea of sending military instructors and personnel to assist with demining efforts.

Russia has consistently asserted that it would regard any Western soldier present in Ukraine as a legitimate target. Putin has emphasized that foreign military support for Kiev effectively amounts to NATO’s direct involvement in the conflict.

Israel called in the Vatican’s ambassador in response to comments made by Pope Francis concerning Gaza

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Pope Francis, with a large bruise on his chin, speaks during the Immaculate Conception celebration prayer near the Spanish Steps in Rome, Italy.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry has called in the Vatican’s ambassador following Pope Francis‘s remarks regarding the “cruelty” of airstrikes in Gaza, as reported by several Israeli media outlets on Wednesday.

Ynet, a news website, indicated that Archbishop Adolfo Tito Yllana met with Foreign Ministry Director General Eyal Bar-Tal on Tuesday. While Bar-Tal expressed disapproval of the pope’s comments, he did not issue a formal reprimand to Yllana, according to the reports.

The pope reiterated his plea for a ceasefire in Gaza as Christmas approaches, emphasizing the high number of civilian casualties resulting from Israeli airstrikes.

“This is cruelty. This is not war. I wanted to say this because it touches the heart,” he stated, as reported by Reuters.

Last month, Vatican News mentioned that the pontiff had written in an upcoming book that claims of genocide by the Israeli army against Palestinians “should be carefully investigated.”

In response, West Jerusalem has rejected the genocide allegations, asserting that the Palestinian militant group Hamas is using civilians as human shields. The Foreign Ministry stated last month, “Cruelty is terrorists hiding behind children while trying to murder Israeli children; cruelty is holding 100 hostages for 442 days, including a baby and children, by terrorists and abusing them.”

Israeli diplomats expressed disappointment, stating, “Regrettably, the pope has opted to overlook all of this.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu affirmed that military operations in Gaza will persist until Israel neutralizes the threat posed by Hamas.

Since October 2023, local authorities and the UN report that over 45,000 individuals have lost their lives in Gaza, with nearly 90% of the enclave’s population displaced.

The conflict erupted on October 7, 2023, when Hamas and its allies launched a surprise assault on Israeli cities, resulting in approximately 1,200 fatalities and the abduction of over 200 hostages. It is estimated that around 100 Israelis remain captive in Gaza.

Taiwan’s Presidential Office holds war games for the first time to prepare for a potential China emergency

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Taiwan’s Presidential Office recently held its inaugural tabletop exercise designed to simulate a military escalation with China, according to several officials familiar with the situation. This exercise comes at a time when the island is experiencing heightened military threats from China.

The three-hour exercise, conducted on Thursday, involved numerous central and local government agencies, as well as civil organizations, with participants requesting anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the event.

In recent years, China has intensified its military threats, including a significant buildup of naval forces this month and ongoing military activities near Taiwan, which Beijing considers its territory following Taipei’s refusal to acknowledge this claim. The war game, which took place within the Presidential Office in Taipei, was overseen by Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim and National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu, as reported by officials who spoke to Reuters.

The exercise explored various scenarios, including China’s “high intensity” grey-zone warfare and situations where Taiwan is “on the verge of conflict,” aimed at assessing the readiness of government offices and civil society to respond, according to a security official familiar with the proceedings. This year, China has conducted two significant military exercises around Taiwan to exert pressure on Taipei, one in May and another in October, referred to as “Joint Sword – 2024A” and B, respectively.