Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has revealed that his country is in the process of producing launchers for Russia’s Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system. In remarks to the press, Lukashenko indicated that Belarus is expecting to receive the missiles from Russia, highlighting the strengthening military collaboration between the two nations.

This announcement, covered by Belarus’ state news agency BelTA, is part of ongoing initiatives to incorporate the Oreshnik system into Belarus’ defense strategy. Lukashenko pointed out that while Belarus is responsible for manufacturing the launchers, the missiles—capable of carrying nuclear warheads—will be supplied by what he referred to as “the big brother,” a nod to Russia.

This situation raises important questions regarding the strategic objectives of both countries, especially in light of escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The proposal to station the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus was first publicly discussed in December 2024, during a meeting between Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Minsk. At that time, the leaders signed a security agreement under the Union State framework, a political and economic alliance between Russia and Belarus.

Lukashenko took the opportunity to advocate for the deployment of Oreshnik missiles on Belarusian territory, citing concerns over NATO’s military activities near his country’s western borders and the situation in Ukraine.

Putin responded favorably, indicating that the missiles could potentially be delivered to Belarus by the latter half of 2025, contingent on Russia’s production schedule. This initial dialogue has now evolved into what seems to be a definitive plan, with Belarus actively engaged in establishing the necessary infrastructure.

Lukashenko’s comments on March 13 provide insight into the current status of Belarus’s collaboration with Russia. He mentioned that Belarus is nearing the completion of its initial batch of launchers, a crucial advancement in preparing for the Oreshnik system. “Upon analyzing this matter, we found that aside from the missile itself, all other components must be produced, and we are accomplishing this in Belarus,” he stated, as reported by BelTA.

This indicates a division of responsibilities, with Belarus focusing on the ground-based elements while depending on Russia for the missiles. The Oreshnik, characterized by Russian officials as a state-of-the-art weapon, has garnered attention from military analysts globally, although much of the information available remains speculative due to a lack of official details.

The Oreshnik missile first gained international attention on November 21, 2024, when it was deployed in a strike against a weapons facility in Dnipro, Ukraine. This attack marked its first use in combat and raised immediate alarms among Western nations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky referred to it as a “second step” toward escalation, highlighting Russia’s increasing dependence on advanced weaponry.

Subsequently, Putin confirmed the strike, presenting it as a reaction to Ukraine’s deployment of U.S.-supplied ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles on Russian soil. He asserted that the Oreshnik is a hypersonic missile equipped with multiple warheads, capable of reaching speeds exceeding Mach 10—over 7,600 miles per hour—and designed to evade interception.

The global response was immediate. The United States identified the missile as a variant of the RS-26 Rubezh, an intermediate-range ballistic missile, but minimized its significance, with officials indicating that it seemed to be an enhancement of existing technology rather than a revolutionary advancement.

Details regarding the Oreshnik remain unclear, primarily due to the limited verified information released by Russia. Statements from President Putin and Russian military representatives suggest that the missile is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads, providing versatility in its use.

Its claimed range surpasses 2,000 kilometers—approximately 1,240 miles—potentially allowing it to target much of Europe if deployed in Belarus. Russian assertions also emphasize its capacity to launch multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, enabling a single missile to hit several targets at once.

However, Western analysts express caution regarding these claims, noting that the specifications remain unverified. Some speculate that the Oreshnik may be a modified iteration of the RS-26, a project that underwent testing in the early 2010s but was never fully operational. Others highlight its solid-fuel propulsion system, a typical characteristic of contemporary ballistic missiles, which facilitates faster launches compared to those using liquid fuel.

Military experts from both Western and Eastern viewpoints have commented on the Oreshnik’s importance. A U.S. defense official, who spoke anonymously to The New York Times in December 2024, characterized it as an “expensive means to deliver relatively limited destruction” when utilized conventionally, implying that its primary value lies in its nuclear capabilities.

In contrast, Russian General Valery Gerasimov, a prominent architect of Moscow’s military strategy, has lauded the missile’s adaptability, asserting that it enhances Russia’s deterrent capabilities.

A December 2024 report from the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank based in Washington, indicated that the deployment of the Oreshnik in Belarus would not significantly elevate the immediate threat of attacks on Ukraine or NATO nations, considering Russia’s current inventory of shorter-range systems such as the Iskander.

Additionally, an Eastern European military analyst, referenced by the Kyiv Post, suggested that the missile’s deployment might function as a psychological strategy, bolstering Russia’s capacity to project power without fundamentally changing the dynamics on the battlefield.

From a military and tactical perspective, Russia’s plan to position the Oreshnik in Belarus is strategically sound. Belarus shares a 673-mile border with Ukraine and is located just north of Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Placing missiles in this location would shorten flight times to potential targets in Ukraine, complicating defensive measures.

Furthermore, this positioning would bring the Oreshnik closer to NATO countries such as Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, thereby extending Russia’s influence into Western Europe. Analysts believe this action aligns with Moscow’s overarching objective of countering NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe.

By utilizing Belarus as a forward operating base, Russia could strengthen its deterrent posture while sidestepping the logistical difficulties associated with deploying such systems further into its own territory. For Belarus, this arrangement solidifies its status as a crucial ally within Russia’s security framework, potentially providing protection under Moscow’s nuclear umbrella amid escalating tensions with the West.

The decision to have Belarus manufacture the launchers carries further implications. President Lukashenko has consistently highlighted his country’s industrial capabilities, and this role emphasizes Belarus’ contribution to the military alliance between Russia and Belarus.

This development also enhances ongoing collaboration, as last year, Lukashenko confirmed that Belarus had acquired Iskander-M systems from Russia, which possess a range of 400 to 500 kilometers and are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The production of launchers for the Oreshnik could strengthen Belarus’ defense sector, creating job opportunities and fostering technical skills.

Nonetheless, this move further aligns Minsk with Moscow’s military initiatives, raising concerns about its direct connection to the conflict in Ukraine. Since 2022, Lukashenko has permitted Russian forces to utilize Belarusian territory as a base, yet he has refrained from engaging directly in the combat.

The manufacturing of launchers may be interpreted as an indirect means of supporting Russia, although some analysts contend that it reflects Belarus’ own security interests rather than a direct commitment to the situation in Ukraine.

The international reaction to the introduction of the Oreshnik has been varied. Following the strike in Dnipro, NATO nations condemned Russia’s escalation but refrained from implementing immediate counteractions.

The U.S. Pentagon recognized the missile’s capabilities but noted that it remains in the experimental phase, with only a few units likely in existence. European leaders, especially from countries neighboring Belarus, voiced concerns regarding the potential deployment of the missile. Defense officials from Estonia and the U.K., cited in reports from early 2025, characterized it as a sign of intent rather than an immediate threat.

In response, Russia has intensified its rhetoric. In late November 2024, Putin suggested targeting “decision-making centers” in Kyiv with the Oreshnik, a remark that sparked speculation about its future operational role. By March 2025, Russian state media announced the commencement of serial production, although Western intelligence indicates that the scale of production remains limited.

For Belarus, the implications are significant. Lukashenko’s remarks on March 13 illustrate a delicate balancing act—proudly highlighting the nation’s capability to produce launchers while simultaneously recognizing its reliance on Russia for missiles. This situation encapsulates the broader dynamics of the relationship between Minsk and Moscow, where Belarus secures defense assurances at the cost of its independence.

The Oreshnik project has the potential to strengthen this alliance, positioning Belarus as a vital component of Russia’s defense infrastructure. However, it also entangles Minsk further in a geopolitical confrontation, with NATO closely monitoring developments from the neighboring border.

Currently, the missiles have yet to be delivered to Belarus, but preparations are underway. Lukashenko’s trip to Moscow on March 13, during which he engaged with Russian media, highlights the ongoing collaboration. He indicated that the first two Oreshnik launchers are approaching completion, with the next phase dependent on Russia’s capacity to supply the missiles.

The impact of this deployment on the balance of power in Eastern Europe is still unclear, but it represents another significant development in the shifting military landscape influenced by the conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing rivalry between Russia and the West.