US reconnaissance aircraft are ramping up surveillance near the border to gather intelligence on Mexican drug cartels

The US military has markedly intensified its surveillance efforts targeting Mexican drug cartels in the last two weeks, utilizing advanced spy planes that have completed at least 18 missions over the southwestern United States and in international airspace near the Baja peninsula, as reported by open-source data and three US officials knowledgeable about the operations.

These flights, carried out over a 10-day span in late January and early February, signify a substantial increase in activity, according to current and former military officials. This surge aligns with President Donald Trump’s directive to the military to enhance border security and combat the drug smuggling activities of cartels.

Historically, the Pentagon has conducted approximately one surveillance mission per month along the US-Mexico border, as noted by a former military official with extensive experience in homeland defense. Typically, these aircraft have been deployed to gather intelligence on other pressing matters, such as Russian maneuvers in Ukraine or tracking Russian and Chinese submarines.

Among the recent missions, at least 11 have involved Navy P-8 aircraft, which are highly valued for their advanced radar systems that excel in submarine detection but are also equipped to gather imagery and signals intelligence.

One notable mission on February 3 involved a U-2 spy plane, a renowned reconnaissance aircraft developed during the Cold War for high-altitude imaging of the Soviet Union. Current and former military officials with significant experience in counternarcotics operations along the border indicated that they could not recall a U-2 being deployed for this specific purpose previously.

The flight operations extend across the US-Mexico border, encompassing missions in California, Arizona, and Texas. CNN has also reported on at least one extended mission that circled the Baja peninsula and approached Sinaloa on February 4. This operation involved an Air Force RC-135 “Rivet,” which is designed to intercept ground communications.

According to a defense official, the flight pattern around the Baja peninsula has been utilized for an extended period but is currently experiencing increased activity.

While these aircraft operate within US airspace along the border, they possess the capability to gather intelligence well into Mexican territory, as noted by former officials.

Military Assumes Role in Counternarcotics

This escalation highlights Trump’s commitment to positioning the military as the primary agency addressing counternarcotics and border security—areas traditionally managed by domestic law enforcement.

However, the Trump administration’s strategy for utilizing the gathered intelligence remains uncertain. It may serve to compile evidence for potential foreign terrorist designations or to provide actionable intelligence to the Mexican military for targeting cartel operations.

Some current and former US officials have expressed concerns to CNN that these intelligence flights might be aimed at identifying targets for direct military action by the US.

Trump has previously indicated intentions to bomb fentanyl production facilities and deploy special forces to eliminate cartel leaders, actions that could infringe upon Mexico’s sovereignty and strain relations with the United States’ largest trading partner.

The Trump administration has initiated the process of classifying cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, prompting discussions regarding the possibility of direct U.S. military intervention in Mexico.

Additionally, the president has deployed thousands of extra active-duty troops to the border, despite migrant crossings being at their lowest since 2020.

These troops are tasked with supporting U.S. Border Patrol and providing intelligence specialists to evaluate threats and monitor migrant movements, as reported by sources familiar with the situation. However, they are not permitted to engage in law enforcement activities, such as making arrests or confiscating drugs, and are restricted from interacting with migrants except for transportation assistance.

Current and former U.S. officials perceive a deliberate shift in the counternarcotics strategy, placing greater responsibility on the military, which has extensive experience combating non-state terrorist organizations worldwide that share operational characteristics with the cartels.

Border czar Tom Homan stated to ABC News on Thursday, “The cartels would be unwise to confront the military, although they have previously challenged the Mexican military. Now, we have the United States military involved.” He added, “Do I anticipate an increase in violence? Absolutely, as the cartels are generating unprecedented profits.”

Former officials and analysts highlight significant distinctions between cartels and Islamist terrorist organizations abroad. Cartels primarily function as commercial entities rather than ideological groups. Their focus is not on governing populations or acquiring territory. In some instances, they have established deep connections with segments of the Mexican government, which the U.S. military collaborates with and supports.

Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted in a recent essay for The New York Times that while certain state elements may collude with cartels, there are also factions resisting them. He emphasized the importance of collaboration with these resisting elements, particularly with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

This context renders cartels a fundamentally different type of adversary compared to what the Defense Department typically encounters, which is a key reason why most military counternarcotics efforts have historically been conducted in support of law enforcement agencies like the Drug Enforcement Administration and the Department of Homeland Security.

Groups such as ISIS, Boko Haram, and Hamas are among those classified as foreign terrorist organizations.