Portugal Halts F-35 Initiatives Due to Concerns Over Trump’s Unpredictability in Europe

In a significant development that may alter its future air combat capabilities, Portugal is re-evaluating its plan to acquire fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II fighter jets from the United States. This reconsideration is driven by increasing worries regarding Washington’s strategic unpredictability and the changing dynamics within NATO.

This decision reflects Lisbon’s concerns about American foreign policy, especially during the tenure of former President Donald Trump, as well as the shifting security environment in Europe. In an interview with the local media outlet Publico, Portugal’s Defence Minister, Nuno Melo, emphasized the pressing need to update the country’s aging fleet of 28 F-16 AM/BM fighters, which are approaching the end of their operational life.

Although the F-35 was initially seen as the main replacement option, Melo suggested a potential shift towards European-manufactured fighter jets. “The world is evolving, and we must consider geopolitical realities when making vital defense choices,” he remarked. “The recent stance of the United States within the NATO framework necessitates a careful reassessment of our alternatives, as the reliability of our allies is a crucial factor that we must consider.”

Melo also expressed concerns regarding possible operational restrictions imposed by allied nations. “Our alliances should not come with conditions,” he stated. “Limitations on the use, maintenance, and critical components of these aircraft could greatly affect their combat readiness in various operational contexts.”

While the minister did not specify which aircraft might succeed the aging F-16 fleet, industry experts believe that Portugal is currently assessing the Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Saab Gripen—three prominent multirole fighters from Europe. This strategic shift aligns with a broader European movement towards reducing reliance on U.S. defense technology amid apprehensions about Washington’s capacity to maintain control over advanced military systems.

Lisbon’s discussions indicate an increasing trend towards European autonomy in defense, especially as France, Germany, and Spain progress with the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), which aims to establish Europe’s next-generation air superiority capabilities.

A significant issue regarding the F-35 is its dependence on a complex, interconnected digital framework managed by the United States. Numerous NATO allies have expressed concerns that, should diplomatic relations with Washington deteriorate, their access to these aircraft might be restricted or entirely revoked.

Although there is no conclusive evidence that the U.S. has embedded a so-called “kill switch” in the F-35’s software, ongoing speculation—intensified by previous actions from Washington—has heightened European apprehensions. For Portugal, which needs to guarantee that its future fleet of fighter jets remains operational in any conflict, these worries cannot be easily overlooked.

The timing of Portugal’s reassessment adds further complexity to the situation. The nation is gearing up for early elections following the downfall of its center-right government, leaving the ultimate decision regarding fighter jet procurement in limbo. It remains uncertain whether the incoming administration will continue this shift or revert to the F-35.

At present, 14 NATO member countries have either placed orders for or are currently utilizing the F-35, solidifying the aircraft’s status as the alliance’s leading air combat platform. However, Portugal’s reluctance may indicate a potential rift within NATO concerning future fighter jet acquisitions.

Concerns regarding U.S. influence on European air power extend beyond Portugal to Germany, where the planned acquisition of 35 F-35 Lightning II jets is under increased scrutiny. Berlin’s €8.3 billion (RM39.7 billion) agreement with Lockheed Martin, set to begin deliveries next year, has become a focal point in the ongoing discussion about Europe’s dependence on American military equipment.

Fears surrounding potential U.S.-imposed restrictions have grown, especially following Washington’s recent suspension of military aid to Ukraine, which many view as a political strategy.

Reports indicate that the ineffectiveness of U.S.-supplied F-16s in Ukraine was not due to direct deactivation but rather because Washington withheld essential updates for their electronic warfare systems. This has raised concerns that similar tactics could be employed against Germany’s F-35 fleet in the future.

Recently, the U.S. opted not to upgrade the AN/ALQ-131 electronic warfare system on Ukraine’s F-16s, significantly diminishing their capability to counter Russian air defenses. Wolfgang Ischinger, former chairman of the Munich Security Conference, expressed in an interview with Bild, “If we have to worry that the United States might apply the same restrictions to Germany’s F-35s as they have with Ukraine, then we may need to consider canceling the contract.”

The ongoing procurement discussions in Germany, along with Portugal’s reassessment, are intensifying calls across Europe for enhanced self-sufficiency in military procurement.

“In investing billions in advanced fighter jets, we must ensure complete sovereignty over their deployment,” stated Ingo Gädechens, a former military officer and member of the German parliament.

As geopolitical tensions escalate, the debate surrounding the F-35 is increasingly viewed as a critical indicator of Europe’s future defense strategy.

Will European countries continue to depend on American-made jets, despite the potential for external influence, or will they shift towards domestic alternatives to achieve strategic independence?

For Portugal, Germany, and the wider NATO alliance, the choices made today could significantly alter the military power dynamics in Europe for many years ahead.