Seven Chinese nationals tried to enter Guam illegally during U.S. missile tests, authorities said

December 21, 2024

A U.S. Navy MH-60S Knighthawk, U.S. Air Force RQ-4 Global Hawk, Navy MQ-4C Triton, Air Force B-52 Stratofortresses, and KC-135 Stratotankers perform an "Elephant Walk" at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.

Seven Chinese nationals were apprehended on allegations of unlawfully entering Guam coinciding with a significant missile interception test conducted by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency utilizing a new radar system, according to the island’s Customs and Quarantine Agency. The agency reported that at least four of those detained on December 10-11 were located “in the vicinity of a military installation.” Guam is home to numerous such facilities, including Andersen Air Force Base, where the missile test took place on December 10.

The Institute for the Study of War noted in a report released on Friday that “conducting espionage against U.S. military facilities, particularly those capable of missile launches, could yield valuable intelligence for the PRC.” Authorities in Guam indicated that all the Chinese individuals arrived on the same vessel from Saipan, and the investigation is still ongoing. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has yet to respond to a request for comment.

The United States is set to establish an air and missile defense network across 16 locations on the island to deter potential missile threats by complicating and increasing the resources required for such attacks. This initiative aims to incorporate the most advanced U.S. missile defense systems and radar technology, with projected costs reaching up to $10 billion over the next ten years. The missile test conducted on December 10 was deemed successful, and the Missile Defense Agency anticipates conducting up to two interception tests annually.

A missile from Yemen hit the Tel Aviv region, causing minor injuries to 14 people, according to Israeli military reports

Asif Shahid

December 21, 2024

Israeli emergency services work at the scene of a missile strike that, according to Israel’s military, was launched from Yemen and landed in Jaffa, south of Tel Aviv, Israel.

The Israeli military announced that it was unable to intercept a missile launched from Yemen early Saturday, which landed in the Tel Aviv-Jaffa region. According to the ambulance service, 14 individuals sustained minor injuries. A representative for the Iran-aligned Houthis claimed that they successfully targeted a “military site” in Jaffa with a ballistic missile. Paramedics reported treating 14 people for minor shrapnel wounds, with some requiring hospitalization, as stated by the ambulance service.

The Israeli police confirmed they had received notifications regarding a missile that had fallen in a town within the Tel Aviv area. The Houthis have consistently launched drones and missiles toward Israel, framing these actions as expressions of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. On Thursday, Israel conducted airstrikes on ports and energy facilities in Houthi-controlled regions of Yemen and issued warnings of potential further actions against the group.

Biden authorizes $571 million in military assistance for Taiwan

Asif Shahid

December 21, 2024

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a dinner with U.S. service members and their families ahead of Thanksgiving at U.S. Coast Guard Sector New York on Staten Island, New York, U.S.

U.S. President Joe Biden announced on Friday that the administration will allocate $571.3 million in defense assistance to Taiwan, as stated by the White House. Additionally, the State Department has authorized a potential sale of military equipment valued at $265 million to the island.

Despite the absence of formal diplomatic relations between Washington and Taipei, U.S. law mandates that Taiwan, which is claimed by China, must be equipped to defend itself, a situation that continues to provoke Beijing’s ire.

Taiwan, governed by a democratic system, firmly disputes China’s assertions of sovereignty over the island. In recent months, China has intensified its military activities in the region, conducting daily operations near Taiwan and holding two significant military exercises this year. Last week, Taiwan heightened its alert status in response to what it described as the largest concentration of Chinese naval forces in thirty years surrounding the island and in the East and South China Seas.

The White House indicated that President Biden has authorized the Secretary of State to oversee the drawdown of up to $571.3 million in defense articles and services from the Department of Defense, along with military education and training to support Taiwan, although specific details were not disclosed.

Taiwan’s defense ministry expressed gratitude to the United States for its “strong security guarantee,” emphasizing that both parties will continue to collaborate closely on security matters to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait. The Pentagon confirmed that the State Department has approved the potential sale of approximately $265 million in command, control, communications, and computer modernization equipment to Taiwan, which the defense ministry stated would enhance its command-and-control capabilities.

Taiwan’s defense ministry announced on Saturday that the U.S. government has authorized $30 million for components related to the 76 mm autocannon, which is expected to enhance the island’s ability to address China’s “grey-zone” warfare tactics.

Assad’s removal in Syria affects Libya and the broader Mediterranean

Asif Shahid

December 20, 2024

satellite image shows An-124 heavy transport aircraft with its nose cone lifted, at Russian Khmeimim airbase, near Latakia, Syria, December 13, 2024.

Reports started to emerge less than 24 hours after the ousting of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. A local Libyan news outlet featured a headline on Monday, December 9, stating, “Several Assad regime officials arrive in Libya’s Benghazi,” just a day after rebels entered Damascus and discovered that the Syrian president had fled.

While Assad was reportedly taken to Moscow, Libyan news sources indicated that “a number of Syrian officials” loyal to him had arrived in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi. Specific details about the fleeing officials were not disclosed, although personnel at Benghazi’s Benina airbase and international flight tracking services confirmed the arrival of the aircraft.

By the week’s end, there was a noticeable increase in air traffic between Syria and Libya. Multiple news reports indicated that Russia was withdrawing a significant portion of its military assets from Syria, particularly from the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia, and relocating them to Libya.

In light of Assad’s abrupt departure, Russia was working to manage its extensive military presence and personnel in Syria.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that Moscow was in communication with the rebels in Damascus. Journalists in Syria reported that fighters from the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) were stationed around the outer perimeter of Russian military installations, with access to high-security areas restricted to outsiders.

More than a week following the ousting of Assad, a significant development occurred as the Syria-Libya maritime traffic began to increase.

According to reports from US news outlets, Russia has initiated the movement of naval assets from the Syrian port city of Tartus to Libya. A US defense official, who wished to remain anonymous, informed CNN this week that “Moscow has intensified its pressure on Libyan National Army leader Khalifa Haftar to solidify Russia’s claim to a port in Benghazi.”

The warning regarding the Libyan port felt reminiscent of past events.

Moscow’s efforts to gain naval access to eastern Libya, an area under the control of the powerful Haftar, have raised alarms among officials in Western capitals in recent years. With Libya destabilized and fragmented due to over a decade of conflict, it has become a strategic entry point for Russia into Africa.

However, despite Western apprehensions regarding Russia’s expanding influence in Libya and the adjacent Sahel region, these concerns have not led to any effective countermeasures on the ground. Consequently, the alerts from unnamed US officials regarding Russia’s naval intentions in Libya continue to periodically capture headlines in US media.

The abrupt fall of the Assad regime in Syria has intensified the geopolitical competition, creating ripples across the Mediterranean Sea, a crucial maritime corridor linking the Middle East, Europe, and Africa.

All about the naval base

Russia maintains a vital naval facility in the Syrian port city of Tartus, which accommodates elements of the Black Sea Fleet and serves as Moscow’s sole repair and replenishment station in the Mediterranean.

Originally established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s, the Tartus naval base has been expanded and modernized by Russia following the 2011 anti-Assad uprising, during which President Vladimir Putin employed military force to support his Syrian ally.

In January 2017, Russia secured a significant advantage by signing a 49-year lease with Syria for the Tartus naval base, which was granted at no cost and conferred sovereignty to Moscow. This agreement includes provisions for automatic extensions in 25-year increments unless either party raises objections.

Currently, the HTS-led rebels in Syria have permitted Russia to withdraw some of its military resources; however, the stability of Moscow’s long-term naval presence in the Mediterranean remains uncertain.

“We have yet to determine the future of the Russian presence in Syria. Clearly, they are in a weaker position now that their key ally has been removed. However, the primary objective of Russian foreign policy in Syria was not solely Assad, but rather the military bases that facilitated their influence in the Mediterranean. This situation is still under negotiation, and I believe Libya plays a crucial role in this strategy,” stated Emad Badi, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC.

With the downfall of Assad, attention has shifted to Libya’s extensive 1,700-kilometer Mediterranean coastline, particularly the eastern region controlled by Haftar’s military coalition.

“The Russians are increasingly reliant on Libya, which enhances Haftar’s negotiating power. He has a history of leveraging relationships between countries, and this situation will only bolster his position,” remarked Tarek Megerisi, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Fathers, Sons, and Lessons in Kleptocracy

Throughout a career filled with intrigue in the military, Haftar has navigated shifting allegiances, collaborated with competing factions, and skillfully preserved his own safety while accumulating significant wealth.

Known as “the strongman of Cyrenaica” or eastern Libya, the 81-year-old warlord began his military journey in Muammar Gaddafi’s forces before defecting to the United States, where he resided for two decades, obtained US citizenship, and earned titles such as “America’s man.”

In recent years, however, Haftar has adeptly rebranded himself as “Russia’s man,” following a strategy similar to that of his Syrian counterpart, Assad.

Like Assad prior to his removal, Haftar maintains his grip on power through strong familial connections. In the case of the octogenarian Libyan warlord, his sons serve as his key lieutenants, holding influential positions and high military ranks in eastern Libya. The most notable among them, Saddam Haftar, is widely believed to be the favored heir of the “Clan Haftar.”

Erdogan announces Turkey will help Syria reform its government and create a new constitution

Asif Shahid

December 20, 2024

Turkey will provide support to the new Syrian administration in Damascus for the purpose of state restructuring and the development of a new constitution, as stated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday.

Erdogan indicated that Ankara is already collaborating with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and others to draft the new constitution, which he emphasized as a critical step following the ousting of long-time president Bashar al-Assad in December.

“We will share our experiences to assist the Syrian administration,” Erdogan informed reporters accompanying him during his visit to Cairo.

“Creating an inclusive constitution and establishing a political framework that will define Syria’s future are equally vital,” he continued.

Sharaa, also known by his alias Abu Mohammed Jolani, mentioned earlier this week that Syria aims to forge strategic relations with Ankara.

While the Turkish government has not openly supported HTS, the two entities have maintained interactions for several years.

Reports suggest that Ankara approved the operation to seize Aleppo last month, which contributed to the events leading to the removal of President Bashar al-Assad.

The new administration requires numerous critical elements, and we will not abandon them in addressing these challenges, Erdogan stated, assuring that Ankara would provide support in key areas such as energy, humanitarian assistance, and the reconstruction of the nation following years of conflict.

He further mentioned, “Our foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, will soon visit the region to collaborate on establishing the new framework.”

Ankara considers reconstruction vital for facilitating the return of nearly three million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey.

Turkish officials are also hopeful that the international community will lift the sanctions that were imposed on Syria during the Assad regime.

Erdogan indicated that Ankara would take measures to counter the threats posed by Kurdish separatist groups along Turkey’s southern borders.

“The end of the road is near for terrorist organizations,” Erdogan remarked, specifically referencing the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Syria.

Ankara perceives the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria as an entity closely associated with the PKK.

Medvedev says insult directed by Zelensky at Russian President Putin serves as “a middle finger” to Trump

Asif Shahid

December 20, 2024

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s National Security Council

Dmitry Medvedev has commented that the insult directed by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky at Russian President Vladimir Putin serves as “a middle finger” to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has consistently advocated for a cessation of hostilities in the Ukraine conflict.

On Thursday, Zelensky took to social media to disparage Putin, labeling him a “dumbass” following the Russian leader’s suggestion of a “high-tech duel” involving Moscow’s Oreshnik missile system and Western air defenses.

In a response posted on Telegram on Friday, Medvedev, who serves as the deputy chairman of Russia’s National Security Council, emphasized that a leader of a significant nation should maintain a demeanor that is “extremely polite and cordial,” a principle he claims to understand from “personal experience.”

However, Medvedev criticized Zelensky for behaving like “the most vile Bandera scum,” asserting that the Ukrainian leader chose to “show off his coolness through public insults.” He suggested that this conduct was not a result of Zelensky’s “nerves giving out” in reaction to Putin’s duel proposal.

Medvedev characterized Zelensky’s actions and insults towards Putin as a “middle finger” directed at Trump, implying a rejection of negotiations with Russia and a demand for continued financial and military support.

He also recalled that Putin had indicated during his annual Q&A session that Moscow would be open to negotiations with Zelensky, provided he formally restores his legitimacy through elections.

“The runt understands that this is unrealistic and is betting on war. But the unbridled bastard was wrong here too: no one needs him in the war and he won’t hold on to his post for long. History will soon dump him in a cesspool of filth,” Medvedev stated.

Zelensky’s comments have also faced backlash from the Kremlin, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggesting that the Ukrainian leader is struggling to maintain composure under pressure. “It appears to be the result of emotional overload, an inability to pull himself together, hence this rudeness. His nerves are failing,” Peskov remarked.

Zelensky sharply responded to Putin’s press conference, using a derogatory term for the Kremlin leader

Asif Shahid

December 20, 2024

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy appears at a joint press conference

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a sharp retort to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual year-end press conference on Thursday, using a derogatory term to describe the Kremlin leader in his online remarks.

During the conference, Putin took pride in the capabilities of the Oreshnik, a newly developed nuclear-capable ballistic missile that Russia recently launched at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. He reiterated a previous threat to target Ukraine again with the missile, proposing that it could be aimed at Kyiv to test Western-supplied air defense systems.

“Let them suggest some sort of technological experiment – a high-tech duel of the 21st century, if you will,” Putin stated. “They can choose a target, perhaps in Kyiv, where they can concentrate all their air and missile defense resources, and we will strike with the Oreshnik. We’ll see what the outcome is.”

He further remarked, “We are prepared for such an experiment. In any case, we do not dismiss the possibility. We will carry out this experiment, this technological duel, and observe the results. It’s intriguing.”

Zelensky shared a clip of these comments on X, expressing in English: “People are dying, and he thinks it’s ‘interesting’… Dumbass.” He also made a similar remark in Ukrainian.

Putin seemed to make equally flippant comments regarding the war in Ukraine at the outset of his statements on Thursday, suggesting that the conflict was adding an element of interest to life.

During a period of tranquility and stability, one often experiences a sense of boredom and stagnation. There is a craving for excitement. Once the action begins, everything accelerates around you: moments and events fly by. Regrettably, the sound of gunfire is now present.

Putin’s extensive year-end press conference on Thursday featured a combination of public questions and a phone-in segment. This annual event serves as a demonstration of his comprehensive control over the nation.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine was a significant focus, with Putin eager to highlight Russia’s recent achievements in this protracted war. He mentioned that although he has not communicated with US President-elect Donald Trump in over four years, he is “prepared” for possible discussions, anticipating that the new administration in Washington may seek a negotiated resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.

In response to a question from NBC’s Keir Simmons about what he could offer President Trump during their potential meeting, Putin stated, “Firstly, I am uncertain when we will meet, as he has not indicated anything. I have not had any communication with him in over four years. However, I am open to a meeting at any time if he wishes to engage.”

When asked if Russia’s recent challenges in Syria and on the Ukrainian front would place it in a weaker negotiating position, Putin countered, “You suggest that this conversation will occur while I am in a diminished state… And you, along with those who fund your positions in the US, would prefer Russia to be in a weakened condition.”

Kremlin warned that further G7 oil sanctions would be counterproductive and stated it will adjust accordingly

Asif Shahid

December 20, 2024

The Kremlin stated on Friday that any new sanctions imposed by the G7 on Russia’s oil sector would be counterproductive, asserting that it would take measures to mitigate the impact of such actions and adjust accordingly.

According to Bloomberg News, G7 nations are considering ways to strengthen the price cap on Russian oil, which may include replacing the current mechanism with a complete ban on Russian crude or reducing the price threshold from the existing $60 to approximately $40.

In response to inquiries about Russia’s potential concerns should these scenarios occur, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated that there would “certainly” be risks to the stability of global energy markets. “This will inevitably occur and will affect those countries that implement such decisions,” Peskov informed reporters. “We will take all necessary steps to minimize the repercussions of these decisions and protect our economic interests.”

Biden administration is expected to unveil its final set of new military aid for Ukraine in the upcoming days

Asif Shahid

December 20, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is embraced by U.S. President Joe Biden in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington.

The Biden administration is set to unveil its final Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative package in the coming days, utilizing the last of the allocated funds for new weapon purchases for Ukraine, as reported by two sources with knowledge of the situation. This package is expected to include air defense interceptors and artillery munitions, although the specific details will be disclosed upon the announcement. The total value of the package is estimated to be around $1.2 billion, according to the sources.

Under the USAI framework, military equipment is acquired from the defense industry or allied partners instead of being sourced from U.S. military stockpiles, which can result in delays of months or even years before the equipment reaches the battlefield. This package may represent one of the final measures the United States takes to offer direct military support to Ukraine, particularly as Kyiv prepares for the potential return of President-elect Donald Trump, who has expressed skepticism about military aid and has pledged to resolve the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of assuming office on January 20.

Since Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States has pledged $175 billion in aid, which includes approximately $61.4 billion designated for security assistance. About half of this security assistance has been provided through the USAI program, while the remainder has been allocated from existing military stockpiles via presidential drawdown authority. Currently, there is $5.6 billion left under the presidential drawdown authority.

The State Department and the Pentagon have refrained from commenting on the forthcoming announcement, stating that they do not discuss security assistance packages prior to their official disclosure. The USAI program has significantly benefited U.S. defense contractors, enabling them to secure orders for newly produced weapons and create new revenue opportunities.

A notable example is the L3Harris Technologies VAMPIRE system. This Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment counter-drone system received its inaugural USAI-funded order in August 2022. L3Harris successfully delivered its first four units within a year and has experienced heightened interest in the system, leading to multiple subsequent orders through the USAI program.

As the Biden administration gears up to announce the details of the final USAI package, uncertainties linger regarding the future of U.S. support for its ally without dedicated USAI funding. During his campaign, Trump frequently questioned the extent of U.S. involvement in the conflict, advocating for European allies to shoulder a greater share of the financial responsibility.

Some of his Republican colleagues, who will take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate next month, have also shown a more cautious approach toward aid to Kyiv. This shift in perspective—despite previous strong bipartisan support in Congress for ongoing or increased assistance to Ukraine—has raised alarms among Ukraine’s advocates in Washington about the potential direction of U.S. support under a Trump administration.

Pakistan defends ballistic missile development amid new US sanctions

Asif Shahid

December 20, 2024

Pakistan issued a strong condemnation of the United States on Thursday following the announcement of new sanctions targeting the country’s long-range ballistic missile program, describing the action as indicative of “double standards and discriminatory practices.”

Mathew Miller, spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, revealed the sanctions on Wednesday, stating they were enacted under an executive order aimed at “proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems.”

The sanctions specifically affect Pakistan‘s state-owned National Defense Complex and three associated entities involved in the development of long-range ballistic missiles, including the Shaheen missile series.

In response, Pakistan’s foreign ministry characterized the sanctions as “unfortunate and biased.” The ministry emphasized that Islamabad’s defense initiatives are designed to protect the nation’s sovereignty and maintain peace in South Asia.

“The latest round of sanctions undermines the pursuit of peace and security by exacerbating military imbalances,” the ministry noted, seemingly alluding to the ongoing rivalry with India, which is also a nuclear power.

The ministry cautioned that such policies could have serious repercussions for the strategic stability of the region and beyond, although it did not provide further details.

The sanctions against the National Defense Complex and other related firms result in the freezing of any U.S. assets they possess and prohibit U.S. citizens from conducting business with them.

“The strategic program of Pakistan is a sacred trust placed in its leadership by 240 million citizens. This trust, held in the highest regard across the political spectrum, must not be compromised,” the foreign ministry asserted in its response to the U.S. sanctions.

The U.S. State Department’s fact sheet indicates that the National Defense Complex in Islamabad has been involved in acquiring equipment designed for the support of ballistic missile launches and missile testing, which is aimed at enhancing the nation’s missile development capabilities.

Additionally, the fact sheet identifies other companies subjected to U.S. sanctions, including Affiliates International, Akhtar and Sons Private Ltd., and Rockside Enterprise, all based in Karachi.

Miller stated, “The United States will persist in its efforts to combat proliferation and related procurement activities that raise concerns.”

Pakistan’s Shaheen surface-to-surface missile has the capability to deliver nuclear warheads over a distance of approximately 2,750 kilometers, allowing this solid-fueled, multistage missile to target locations throughout India and parts of the Middle East.

The first nuclear tests by New Delhi and Islamabad occurred in May 1998, heightening fears that any future conflict between the two nations could escalate into a nuclear confrontation in South Asia. The two countries have engaged in three wars, leading to ongoing tensions and strained relations.

Both India and Pakistan have declined to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which is an international accord aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.

Syed Muhammad Ali, a security analyst in Islamabad, remarked to VOA, “These U.S. sanctions targeting a close and longstanding strategic ally like Pakistan are regrettable, disconnected from historical contexts, and reflect a diminished U.S. commitment to regional peace, security, and strategic stability.”

Ukraine is amassing a significant repository of war data to enhance the training of AI models

Asif Shahid

December 20, 2024

The AI-enabled drone of Swarmer company flies, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv region, Ukraine.

As warfare increasingly incorporates artificial intelligence, Ukraine possesses a significant asset: extensive drone footage that can be utilized to train AI models for battlefield decision-making. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have employed AI technology during the ongoing conflict to rapidly identify targets, processing images at a speed unattainable by human operators.

Oleksandr Dmitriev, the founder of OCHI, a non-profit organization in Ukraine that consolidates and analyzes video feeds from over 15,000 drone teams on the front lines, informed Reuters that his system has amassed 2 million hours—equivalent to 228 years—of drone footage since 2022. This extensive collection offers crucial data for AI learning.

“This is nourishment for AI: Providing it with 2 million hours of video can elevate its capabilities to extraordinary levels,” Dmitriev stated. He emphasized that the footage is instrumental in training AI models for combat strategies, target identification, and evaluating weapon system effectiveness. “It represents experience that can be translated into mathematical models,” he explained, noting that AI can analyze the trajectories and angles that optimize weapon performance.

Initially developed in 2022 to give military leaders a comprehensive view of the battlefield by displaying drone footage from various crews simultaneously, the system’s utility expanded as the team recognized the potential of the recorded video as a historical archive of the conflict. Dmitriev mentioned that, on average, the system receives five to six terabytes of new data daily from ongoing combat activities.

IMAGE QUALITY

Dmitriev mentioned that he has been in discussions with representatives from several of Ukraine’s foreign allies who have shown interest in his OCHI system, although he refrained from sharing specific details. Samuel Bendett, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Center for a New American Security, emphasized that such a large dataset would be invaluable for training AI systems to accurately identify objects and determine appropriate actions.

“While humans can intuitively make these distinctions, machines require training to recognize what constitutes a road, a natural barrier, or an ambush,” he explained. Kateryna Bondar, a fellow at the Wadhwani AI Centre at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, highlighted the significance of both the dataset size and image quality, as AI models learn to identify targets based on their shapes and colors.

Additionally, Ukraine has developed another system known as Avengers, created by its defense ministry, which consolidates and gathers video feeds from drones and CCTV. The ministry has not disclosed further information about this system, but it has previously stated that Avengers identifies 12,000 Russian military assets weekly using AI identification technologies.

Numerous drones are already equipped with AI systems that enable autonomous flight towards targets without human intervention, and Ukraine is leveraging AI technologies to assist in demining efforts. Ukrainian firms are also working on drone swarms, where a computer system can command a network of dozens of drones. Meanwhile, Russia has also promoted its use of battlefield AI, particularly for target recognition in Lancet strike drones, which have demonstrated effectiveness against Ukrainian armored vehicles.

US. acknowledges its troop presence in Syria is double the previous estimate as President Biden sends officials to Damascus

Asif Shahid

December 20, 2024

US soldiers inspect the site of reported Turkish shelling days earlier on an oil extraction facility on the outskirts of Rumaylan, in Syria's Kurdish-controlled northeastern Hasakeh province.

The Pentagon has revealed that the United States currently has around 2,000 troops stationed in Syria, a figure that is more than double the previously reported count of 900, according to a Defense Department spokesperson during a press briefing on Thursday.

Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder noted, “There are often diplomatic and operational security factors that influence our troop deployments, and this situation is no exception.” He emphasized that all 2,000 troops are deployed in Syria to combat ISIS.

Ryder further explained that the additional forces are classified as temporary rotational troops, responding to evolving mission needs, while the original 900 personnel are on extended assignments.

On Friday, a U.S. delegation is set to visit Syria to engage with the interim Syrian government, marking the first high-level American visit since the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, as stated by a State Department spokesperson.

The delegation includes Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Roger Carstens, and NEA Senior Advisor Daniel Rubinstein, who are currently in Damascus.

CNN reported on Thursday that this delegation was anticipated to arrive in Syria soon, with Rubinstein at the helm. The State Department spokesperson confirmed that Rubinstein “will spearhead the Department’s diplomatic efforts regarding Syria.”

The delegation plans to engage with representatives from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the effective governing body in Syria, to discuss transition principles that have received endorsement from the United States and regional allies during a meeting in Aqaba, Jordan, according to the spokesperson.

These principles, which were established following a recent gathering in the coastal city of Jordan, address critical matters such as human rights, the prevention of a resurgence of terrorist organizations like ISIS, and the elimination of chemical weapons.

Carstens has been active in Lebanon and Jordan over the past two weeks, spearheading efforts to locate American journalist Austin Tice, who has been missing in Syria for over 12 years.

The delegation is also anticipated to address initiatives aimed at finding Tice. These discussions have been central to the US’s direct engagement with HTS, a point confirmed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday. HTS is recognized as a terrorist organization by the US.

US military efforts are concentrated on combating ISIS, a significant challenge for the international community following the collapse of the Assad regime. US officials have consistently emphasized the necessity of preventing the terrorist group from exploiting the transitional period in Syria to re-establish itself.

When questioned by CNN regarding the Pentagon’s previous failure to disclose the accurate number of US forces in Syria, Ryder refuted any claims of intentional misrepresentation, stating that he only became aware of the actual figure on Thursday prior to his briefing.

“Part of the explanation lies in the sensitivity surrounding diplomatic and operational security,” Ryder noted, declining to elaborate on the diplomatic factors involved.

“I’m not going to delve into diplomatic discussions,” Ryder stated. “However, there are indeed diplomatic considerations at play.”

Ryder indicated that he discovered the initially reported figure was inaccurate after receiving recent updates while his team was reviewing the situation. He stated, “I requested further details on this matter, understanding that if the numbers differ from what we previously communicated, we need to ascertain the correct figures and proceed accordingly.”

When asked whether Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was informed about the number of US troops stationed in Syria, Ryder expressed confidence that the secretary is aware of US military deployments globally. However, he noted that Austin had not yet discussed this matter with Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the commander of US Central Command, who oversees operations in the region.

Ryder also mentioned that he was not aware of any changes to the number of US troops in Syria.

Since 2014, US forces have been present in Syria to combat ISIS, collaborating with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in their efforts against the terrorist organization.

The swift decline of Assad’s regime has raised concerns about a potential power vacuum that could allow ISIS to regain strength, as the group has not controlled territory in Syria since 2019.

The situation is further complicated by Turkey’s threats against the SDF, which it views as a significant threat due to its ties to the Peoples’ Protection Units (YPG), an organization designated as terrorist by Turkey.

Recently, the US has conducted numerous airstrikes targeting ISIS, while the SDF has reported a suspension of their anti-ISIS operations due to recent assaults by Turkish-backed forces.

Israel’s Netanyahu focuses on Iran following victories against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria

Asif Shahid

December 20, 2024

2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his longstanding adversary, Iran. The experienced Israeli leader aims to solidify his strategic objectives, which include enhancing military dominance over Gaza, countering Iran’s nuclear pursuits, and taking advantage of the weakening of Tehran’s allies—namely, Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The downfall of Assad, along with the removal of key figures from Hamas and Hezbollah and the dismantling of their military capabilities, represents a series of significant victories for Netanyahu. With Syria’s influence diminished, the alliances that Iran has cultivated over the years are disintegrating. As Iran’s power wanes, Israel is positioning itself as the preeminent force in the region.

Netanyahu is expected to intensify efforts against Iran’s nuclear program and missile capabilities, maintaining a relentless focus on neutralizing these strategic threats to Israel’s security.

Observers of the Middle East suggest that Iran faces a critical decision: to persist with its nuclear enrichment or to curtail its atomic activities in favor of negotiations. “Iran is particularly susceptible to an Israeli strike, especially regarding its nuclear initiatives,” noted Joost R. Hiltermann, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the International Crisis Group. “I wouldn’t rule out an Israeli action, but that won’t eliminate Iran’s presence.”

“If the Iranians remain steadfast, both Trump and Netanyahu could take military action, as there are currently no barriers to prevent them,” stated Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib, referencing President-elect Donald Trump. Khatib posited that the Iranian leadership, having shown a willingness to be pragmatic in the past, might consider compromise to avoid a military conflict.

Trump, who exited a 2015 agreement involving Iran and six global powers designed to limit Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, is expected to intensify sanctions on Iran’s oil sector. This comes despite appeals from critics advocating for a return to negotiations, viewing diplomacy as a more sustainable long-term strategy.

Netanyahu POISED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE HIS LEGACY

In the context of the ongoing crises in Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu’s protracted corruption trial, which resumed in December, is poised to significantly influence his legacy. For the first time since the onset of the Gaza conflict in 2023, Netanyahu has taken the witness stand in a case that has deeply polarized Israeli society.

As 2024 approaches, it is anticipated that the Israeli prime minister will consent to a ceasefire agreement with Hamas to end the 14-month-long Gaza war and secure the release of Israeli hostages held in the region, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

However, without a post-war U.S. strategy for Israel to transfer authority to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Netanyahu opposes, Gaza is likely to remain under Israeli military oversight. Arab nations have shown limited willingness to urge Israel toward compromise or to encourage the beleaguered PA to reform its leadership for a potential takeover.

“Israel is expected to maintain its military presence in Gaza for the foreseeable future, as any withdrawal poses the risk of Hamas re-establishing itself. Israel believes that sustaining its military advantages necessitates remaining in Gaza,” Khatib informed Reuters.

For Netanyahu, achieving such an outcome would signify a strategic triumph, reinforcing a status quo that corresponds with his objectives: obstructing Palestinian statehood while maintaining Israel’s enduring dominance over Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem—regions that are globally acknowledged as essential for a prospective Palestinian state.

The conflict in Gaza ignited when Hamas militants launched an incursion into Israel on October 7, 2023, resulting in the deaths of 1,200 individuals and the abduction of 250 hostages, as reported by Israeli sources. In retaliation, Israel initiated an air and ground offensive that has reportedly claimed 45,000 lives, according to local health authorities, displacing 1.2 million people and leaving significant portions of the territory devastated.

Although a ceasefire agreement would provide an immediate cessation of hostilities in Gaza, it would fail to resolve the underlying, long-standing Palestinian-Israeli conflict, as noted by officials from both Arab and Western nations.

On the ground, the likelihood of establishing a Palestinian state—an option consistently dismissed by Netanyahu’s administration—has become increasingly elusive, with Israeli settler leaders expressing optimism that Trump will closely align with their perspectives.

A rise in settler violence and the growing assertiveness of the settler movement, evidenced by highway billboards in certain West Bank regions proclaiming in Arabic “No Future in Palestine,” illustrate the intensifying pressure on Palestinians.

Even if the Trump administration were to advocate for a resolution to the conflict, any potential agreement would likely be dictated by Israel’s conditions, according to Hiltermann from the Crisis Group.

It is concluded regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state, yet the Palestinian presence remains, he stated. During Trump’s previous administration, Netanyahu achieved notable diplomatic successes, including the “Deal of the Century,” a U.S.-endorsed peace initiative proposed in 2020 aimed at addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Should this plan be enacted, it would signify a significant departure from traditional U.S. policy and international accords by explicitly supporting Israel and moving away from the long-established land-for-peace principle that has historically shaped negotiations.

The proposal would permit Israel to annex extensive areas of the occupied West Bank, encompassing Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley. Additionally, it would designate Jerusalem as the “undivided capital of Israel,” effectively negating Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem as their capital, which is a fundamental aspect of their aspirations for statehood and aligns with U.N. resolutions.

SYRIA AT A CRUCIAL JUNCTURE

On the other side of the Israeli border, Syria finds itself at a pivotal moment following the ousting of Assad by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel forces, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, commonly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Golani now confronts the daunting challenge of unifying control over a fragmented Syria, where both military and police structures have disintegrated. HTS must start anew, securing borders and ensuring internal stability while facing threats from jihadists, remnants of the Assad regime, and various other opponents.

The primary concern for both Syrians and external observers is whether HTS, which has historical ties to al-Qaeda but is now attempting to position itself as a Syrian nationalist entity for legitimacy, will revert to a strict Islamist ideology. The group’s success or failure in maintaining this balance will significantly influence Syria’s future, a nation characterized by its diverse populations, including Sunnis, Shi’ites, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians.

Hiltermann remarked, “If they manage to embrace Syrian nationalism, there is hope for the country; however, if they fall back into their familiar pattern of rigid Islamism, it could lead to further division within Syria.” He cautioned that this could result in prolonged chaos and a weakened state, reminiscent of the situations in Libya and Iraq.

Ukraine may consider allowing Russian gas transit if Moscow doesn’t make payments during the conflict

Asif Shahid

December 19, 2024

Ukraine may contemplate the ongoing transit of Russian gas, provided that Moscow does not receive payment for the fuel until after the conflict concludes, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated on Thursday.

Previously, Ukraine has dismissed the possibility of extending its contract for the transit of Russian gas to Europe, which is set to expire at the end of the year. Slovakia, one of the gas recipients, is actively seeking to extend the agreement.

“We will not extend the transit of Russian gas. We refuse to allow additional billions to be profited from our suffering and the lives of our citizens,” Zelenskiy remarked during a news conference at a European Union summit in Brussels. However, he noted, “If a country is willing to provide us with gas but defer payments to Russia until the war is over, then that is a potential option we can consider.”

The European Commission has indicated its readiness for the contract’s expiration, and all nations receiving Russian gas through Ukraine have access to alternative sources. Zelenskiy criticized Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has expressed concerns about the economic impact on his country if it loses access to inexpensive Russian gas. “Honestly, during wartime, discussing financial matters feels somewhat inappropriate, as we are losing lives,” Zelenskiy stated.

He also mentioned that he informed Fico that Ukraine would be open to transporting gas from another country through its infrastructure to Europe, but it would require guarantees that this gas is not simply rebranded Russian fuel. “We must ensure that we will only transit gas that does not originate from Russia,” Zelenskiy emphasized.

British Defense Secretary proposed deploying UK military instructors to Ukraine

Asif Shahid

December 19, 2024

British Defense Secretary John Healey has indicated that UK military instructors may be sent to Ukraine to enhance the training of its armed forces, as reported by The Times. Healey emphasized the need for London to improve the current training program to better align with the specific requirements of Kiev.

Since the conflict in Ukraine escalated in February 2022, the UK has become one of Ukraine’s most committed allies, training tens of thousands of Ukrainian military personnel on British soil. Additionally, the report mentions that a limited number of UK troops have been deployed to Ukraine to assist with medical training.

Recently, leaders from various NATO countries have proposed the idea of sending military personnel to Ukraine for training and support purposes.

In an article published on Wednesday, The Times quoted Healey during his visit to Kiev, stating that the UK should ensure the training is more suited to the needs of the Ukrainians.

“We need to facilitate easier access for the Ukrainians and collaborate with them to encourage and mobilize more recruits,” he remarked.

When questioned by the newspaper about whether this would involve training Ukrainian troops within their own country, Healey did not provide a clear response, but committed to exploring all options to meet Ukrainian requests.

According to the BBC, referencing unnamed sources, the defense secretary has maintained the option for military involvement. During his visit to Kiev, Healey asserted that “Russia is failing to win,” and emphasized that “we can apply significantly more pressure” on Moscow.

Last month, the French newspaper Le Monde reported that the UK and France had resumed discussions regarding the potential deployment of troops to Ukraine. Earlier this year, French President Emmanuel Macron indicated that he would not dismiss this possibility. However, many NATO allies quickly distanced themselves from his proposal.

Even Estonia’s defense minister, a strong supporter of Kiev, has shown little enthusiasm for such a deployment. Hanno Pevkur stated in late November that the potential risks of this action would outweigh any possible benefits.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov remarked at that time that there is no current agreement among Western nations regarding troop deployment to Ukraine, labeling those advocating for it as “hotheads.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously cautioned that such a deployment could lead to a “serious conflict in Europe and a global conflict.”

Ukraine launched 10 Western-made missiles at Russia on Wednesday, per the Russian defense ministry

Asif Shahid

December 19, 2024

A US-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is pictured in Queensland, Australia.

Ukraine has conducted a missile strike on a large chemical facility located in Russia‘s southern Rostov Region, as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense. The military indicated that the incident occurred on Wednesday, involving the launch of six American-made ATACMS tactical missiles alongside four air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

In response, Russian air defense systems engaged the incoming threats, successfully intercepting all ATACMS and three of the four Storm Shadow missiles utilizing S-400 and Buk-M3 surface-to-air missile systems, as well as the Pantsir air defense system. One Storm Shadow missile deviated from its intended path but still struck the facility, causing damage to a technical building, according to the ministry’s statement.

Moscow has denounced the attack, asserting that the actions of the Kiev regime, backed by Western allies, will not go unaddressed.

The Kamensky plant is recognized as one of the largest chemical manufacturing facilities in southern Russia. Founded in 1939, it has undergone significant development, producing vital chemical products that serve national interests and bolster the country’s defense capabilities.

Putin said Moscow will talk with Ukraine’s Zelensky if he confirms his position via a new presidential election

Asif Shahid

December 19, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting

Moscow is ready to initiate discussions with Ukraine‘s President Vladimir Zelensky, contingent upon his validation through a new presidential election, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

During his annual end-of-year press conference on Thursday, Putin emphasized that any forthcoming agreements between Russia and Ukraine must be endorsed by the legitimate authorities in Kyiv, which currently refers to the Ukrainian parliament, the Rada.

Putin clarified that the Ukrainian Constitution does not provide a mechanism for extending the presidential term during martial law, and only the Rada possesses the authority to extend its term without conducting elections in wartime.

He pointed out that since the president of Ukraine is tasked with appointing heads of ministries, security services, and other regional and governmental entities, the expiration of Vladimir Zelensky’s term earlier this year effectively renders all these agency leaders illegitimate.

Nonetheless, Putin affirmed that Moscow is willing to engage in dialogue with Kyiv without any preconditions, aside from those previously established in Istanbul in 2022, which included a neutral, non-aligned status for Ukraine and specific limitations on the deployment of foreign weaponry. He also mentioned that any discussions would need to acknowledge the current realities that have emerged since then.

Regarding potential negotiation partners, Putin indicated that Moscow is open to discussions with anyone, including Vladimir Zelensky, provided they gain legitimacy through a public vote.

“If Ukraine genuinely seeks a peaceful resolution, it can arrange this internally as it sees fit. However, we can only enter into agreements with those who are recognized as legitimate, and currently, that status belongs solely to the Rada and its chairman.”

Last month, Putin emphasized that the Ukrainian leadership lacks the legal authority to command the military or compel individuals to sacrifice their lives, asserting that the current government in Kiev has effectively seized power without conducting elections.

The parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine, which were set for October 2023 and March 2024, were canceled by Zelensky, who stated that no elections would occur while martial law is in effect.

Although Zelensky’s presidential term officially ended in May, he continues to hold power. A recent survey by the Sociological Association of Ukraine revealed that if an election were held today, Zelensky would garner only 16% of the vote.

US acknowledges its efforts to influence regime change in Iran

Asif Shahid

December 19, 2024

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has acknowledged that for the last twenty years, the United States has engaged in efforts aimed at regime change in Iran, which he described as unsuccessful.

During a discussion at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Wednesday, Blinken was asked whether the US should pursue a policy of regime change in Iran.

He responded, “If we reflect on the past two decades, our attempts at regime change have not been particularly successful,” a statement that elicited laughter from the audience.

Blinken attributed these failures to the lack of diplomatic relations between the US and Iran since April 1980, when President Jimmy Carter cut ties following the 1979 hostage crisis at the US embassy in Tehran.

He emphasized the “complex” situation in Iran, suggesting that the US is “not the best source of a clear perspective on that” due to the prolonged disengagement. He noted that while the narrative opposing the Islamic Republic represents “at least half the population,” it is “not as straightforward as that.”

He acknowledged the presence of a significant conservative faction in Iran that likely remains loyal to the regime.

He also recognized that efforts from Washington to influence Iranian society have been challenging, stating, “it’s really hard to do from the outside.”

“Our aim has been, at various times, to empower those within Iran who seek a different future for their country—enabling them to communicate, stand up, and access resources,” the secretary of state remarked.

Blinken further indicated that Tehran might be contemplating the development of a nuclear weapon, especially given the rising tensions in the Middle East. He noted that the incoming administration of President Donald Trump would need to engage in negotiations with Tehran to avert the creation of a nuclear bomb.

During his first term from 2017 to 2021, Trump withdrew from the 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement, which aimed to restrict Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon, and initiated what he termed a “maximum pressure campaign.”

Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed sources, that Trump’s transition team is exploring options for addressing Iran, including a potential direct strike on its nuclear facilities.

China allows Sweden, Finland, Germany, and Denmark to board a vessel involved in the cable breach incident

Asif Shahid

December 19, 2024

A view of the anchor of the Chinese ship, the bulk carrier Yi Peng 3, in the sea of Kattegat, near the City of Grenaa in Jutland, Denmark.

China has permitted officials from Germany, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark to board a Chinese bulk carrier involved in an investigation regarding breaches of Baltic Sea cables, as stated by the Danish foreign minister on Thursday.

The vessel, Yi Peng 3, is sought in Sweden for inquiries related to the damage of two undersea fiber-optic cables in November and has remained stationary in nearby waters for a month while discussions took place between diplomats in Stockholm and Beijing.

Investigators quickly focused on the ship, which departed from the Russian port of Ust-Luga on November 15. An analysis of MarineTraffic data by Reuters indicated that the vessel’s location matched the timing and location of the breaches. The damaged Baltic Sea cables include one connecting Finland and Germany and another linking Sweden to Lithuania, with the incidents occurring on November 17-18. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius suggested that sabotage was likely the cause.

On Thursday, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen announced that Denmark had facilitated a meeting earlier in the week between representatives from Germany, Sweden, Finland, and China, effectively resolving a month-long impasse. “We expect that once this group has completed their inspection, the ship will be able to proceed to its destination,” Lokke Rasmussen remarked.

LSEG data indicated that Yi Peng 3 remained stationary in the Kattegat strait, situated between Denmark and Sweden. In a statement, Swedish police clarified that their role on the vessel was solely as observers while Chinese authorities carried out their investigations.

The police also noted that the preliminary investigation into potential sabotage related to two cable breaks in the Baltic Sea is ongoing. They emphasized that the activities conducted aboard the ship on Thursday were not part of the Swedish-led preliminary inquiry.

The incidents occurred within Sweden’s exclusive economic zone, and Swedish prosecutors are spearheading the investigation based on suspicions of sabotage. Intelligence officials from various Western nations have expressed confidence that the Chinese vessel was responsible for the damage to both cables, although opinions differ on whether these incidents were accidental or intentional. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has called for the ship to return to Sweden to assist with the investigation.

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The warning regarding the Libyan port felt reminiscent of past events.

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