Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly cautioned Hezbollah leader Syyed Hassan Nasrallah to evacuate Lebanon just days prior to his death in an Israeli airstrike. Khamenei is now expressing significant concern regarding Israeli infiltration within high-ranking government positions in Tehran, according to three Iranian sources.

Following the attack on Hezbollah’s booby-trapped devices on September 17, Khamenei dispatched an envoy to urgently advise Nasrallah to relocate to Iran. This warning was based on intelligence assessments indicating that Israeli agents had embedded themselves within Hezbollah and were plotting to assassinate him, as revealed by a senior Iranian official to Reuters.

The envoy was identified as Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, a high-ranking commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who was present with Nasrallah in his bunker during the Israeli bombardment and also lost his life in the strike. Khamenei, who has been in a secure location within Iran since Saturday, ordered a retaliatory strike involving approximately 200 missiles to be launched at Israel on Tuesday, as confirmed by a senior Iranian official. This attack was a response to the fatalities of Nasrallah and Nilforoushan, according to a statement from the Revolutionary Guards.

The statement referenced the killing of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, along with Israel’s military actions in Lebanon. Israel has not acknowledged its involvement in Haniyeh’s death. On Tuesday, Israel initiated what it termed a “limited” ground operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Neither Iran’s foreign ministry nor the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which oversees the Mossad intelligence agency, responded to requests for comments.

The assassination of Nasrallah followed two weeks of targeted Israeli strikes that have dismantled weapons facilities, removed half of Hezbollah’s leadership council, and severely weakened its top military command. Concerns regarding the safety of Khamenei and a decline in trust within both Hezbollah and Iran’s leadership surfaced in discussions with ten sources for this report, highlighting a situation that could hinder the effective operation of Iran’s Axis of Resistance alliance, which comprises anti-Israel irregular armed groups.

Established in the 1980s with support from Iran, Hezbollah has consistently been the most powerful entity within the alliance. The current turmoil is complicating Hezbollah’s efforts to appoint a new leader, as there are concerns that ongoing infiltration could jeopardize the safety of any successor, according to four Lebanese sources.

Magnus Ranstorp, a Hezbollah specialist at the Swedish Defense University, remarked, “Essentially, Iran has lost its most significant investment over the past several decades,” referring to the substantial damage inflicted on Hezbollah, which he believes has weakened Iran’s ability to launch attacks along Israel’s borders.

“This has profoundly unsettled Iran. It highlights the extent of their infiltration: not only was Nasrallah targeted, but also Nilforoushan,” he noted, referring to a key military advisor to Khamenei. Ranstorp suggested that Hezbollah’s diminished military strength and leadership could lead Iran to revert to more frequent attacks on Israeli embassies and personnel abroad, similar to its actions prior to the emergence of its proxy forces.

IRAN INITIATES ARRESTS

The death of Nasrallah has led Iranian authorities to conduct a comprehensive investigation into potential infiltrations within their ranks, including the influential Revolutionary Guards and high-ranking security officials, according to a senior Iranian official. Their primary focus is on individuals who travel abroad or have family members residing outside of Iran, as noted by the first official.

Tehran has grown wary of certain Revolutionary Guards members who have been visiting Lebanon, the official stated. Concerns escalated when one of these individuals began inquiring about Nasrallah’s location and the duration of his stays in specific areas, the official added.

This individual, along with several others, has been apprehended following heightened alarm within Iran’s intelligence community. The suspect’s family had moved outside of Iran, although the official did not disclose the identities of the suspect or their relatives.

DISTRUST

A second official indicated that the assassination has fostered distrust between Tehran and Hezbollah, as well as within Hezbollah itself. “The trust that once unified everything has vanished,” the official remarked.
According to a third source close to Iran’s leadership, the Supreme Leader “no longer trusts anyone.”

Concerns had already been raised in Tehran and Hezbollah regarding potential Mossad infiltrations following the July assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli airstrike at a discreet location in Beirut while he was meeting with an IRGC commander, as reported by two Hezbollah sources and a Lebanese security official. This incident was closely followed by the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran.

In contrast to Haniyeh’s death, Israel openly acknowledged its involvement in the killing of Shukr, a relatively low-profile figure whom Nasrallah nonetheless recognized at his funeral as a pivotal character in Hezbollah’s history, having developed its most significant capabilities.

Shukr played a crucial role in the advancement of Hezbollah’s sophisticated weaponry, particularly precision-guided missiles, and oversaw the group’s operations against Israel over the past year, according to the Israeli military.

Concerns in Iran regarding Israeli infiltration into its upper echelons have persisted for years. In 2021, former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed that the leader of an Iranian intelligence unit tasked with targeting Mossad agents was, in fact, an operative for the Israeli agency. He informed CNN Turk that Israel had acquired sensitive documents related to Iran’s nuclear program, referencing a 2018 operation in which Israel seized a significant cache of classified documents concerning the program.

Additionally, in 2021, Yossi Cohen, Israel’s then outgoing spy chief, provided insights into the raid, revealing to the BBC that 20 non-Israeli Mossad agents participated in the operation to extract the archive from a storage facility.

Following the deadly explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah on September 17 and 18, Khamenei extended an invitation to Nasrallah to move to Iran. These attacks have been largely attributed to Israel, although the country has not formally acknowledged responsibility.

WARNING

Despite Tehran’s serious apprehensions about possible infiltrators within Hezbollah, Nasrallah reportedly felt secure and had complete trust in his close associates. Khamenei made a second attempt to communicate with Nasrallah through Nilforoushan last week, urging him to relocate to Iran for his safety. However, Nasrallah chose to remain in Lebanon.

In the aftermath of the pager explosions, several high-level meetings were convened in Tehran to address the safety of Hezbollah and Nasrallah, although the official declined to disclose the attendees. Concurrently, Hezbollah initiated a comprehensive investigation in Lebanon to identify and eliminate Israeli spies within its ranks, interrogating hundreds of members following the detonations, as reported by three sources to Reuters.

Sheikh Nabil Kaouk, a high-ranking official within Hezbollah, was overseeing the investigation, according to a Hezbollah source. The inquiry was reportedly advancing swiftly before an Israeli airstrike resulted in his death, occurring just one day after the assassination of Nasrallah. An earlier raid the previous week had targeted other senior Hezbollah leaders, some of whom were part of the investigation.

Kaouk had called in Hezbollah officials involved in logistics, as well as others who “participated, mediated, and received offers via pagers and walkie-talkies,” the source noted. Following the deaths of Nasrallah and other commanders, a “more thorough and extensive investigation” and subsequent purge were deemed necessary, the source added.

Ali al-Amin, editor-in-chief of Janoubia, a news outlet focused on the Shi’ite community and Hezbollah, reported that Hezbollah had detained hundreds for questioning in connection with the pager incidents.

Hezbollah is grappling with the aftermath of Nasrallah’s assassination in his fortified command center, astonished by the extent to which Israel infiltrated the organization, as indicated by seven sources. Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy research director at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, characterized the offensive as “the most significant intelligence breach by Israel” since Hezbollah’s establishment with Iranian support in the 1980s.

The recent escalation by Israel follows nearly a year of cross-border hostilities, which intensified after Hezbollah launched rocket attacks in solidarity with Hamas. The Palestinian group was responsible for the deaths of 1,200 individuals and the abduction of 250 hostages during an assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, according to Israeli reports. In response, Israeli actions in Gaza have resulted in over 41,000 Palestinian fatalities, as reported by the Gaza health ministry.

Loss of Trust

The Israeli military actions and the looming threat of further assaults on Hezbollah have hindered the Iranian-backed organization from arranging a nationwide funeral that would appropriately reflect Nasrallah’s religious and leadership stature, as reported by four sources familiar with internal discussions within Hezbollah.
“In these circumstances, no one can authorize a funeral,” one Hezbollah insider expressed, regretting that officials and religious figures are unable to step forward to honor the deceased leader properly.
Several commanders who lost their lives last week were interred quietly on Monday, with intentions to conduct a formal religious ceremony once the conflict subsides.
Hezbollah is considering the possibility of obtaining a religious edict to temporarily bury Nasrallah and hold an official funeral when conditions allow, according to the four Lebanese sources.
The organization has also refrained from naming a successor to Nasrallah, likely to prevent making the new leader a target for Israeli assassination, they noted.
“Choosing a new Secretary General could be perilous if Israel eliminates him shortly after,” Amin stated. “The group cannot afford to create further chaos by appointing someone only to have them killed.”